Possibility of Obama being challenged in 2012?

[88Comrade2000]

You know, I think there's a possibility that Obama could be challenged in 2012. Still early but if things are like this a year from now or worse; I could the someone challenging him. It would actually be the norm as Democrats incumbents usually have a challenge.

He could be challenge on both sides. The left could have someone and even a moderate-right challenge. Honestly, I think if this happens that challenger beats Obama; they could win the presidency but I really think the Repubs will nominate someone who can't win.

[SteveFromYellowstone]

I honestly don't think the Republicans really have a viable candidate at this point. Anyone who says Palin is crazy.

[Chopper Dave]

I honestly don't think the Republicans really have a viable candidate at this point. Anyone who says Palin is crazy.

The Republicans have plenty of viable candidates. It's a big party, they'll do what they've done with their past couple nominees; they'll find a moderate within their ranks who is willing to shill enough to the right to energize the base, but is still moderate enough to capture a good portion of the center, and they'll get between 45 and 55% of the popular vote.

That said, unless the train completely runs off the tracks (the lack of such occurrence, IMO, is a crowning achievement by this administration; one they certainly don't get enough credit for), between the still-nagging Bush hangover, Obama's already well-developed campaign machine, and his vast political cult of personality, for lack of a better term, I don't see anyone unseating him from the Oval Office. I certainly don't see anyone trying to unseat him from the Democratic nomination, let alone successfully doing so.

[FuriousD]

So why would the Dems throw up another candidate and try and split their own vote? That's absurd. Obama, good or bad is the incumbant and they will back him 100%. Any other runner who claims to be a Dem will get zero funding from the party.

The Republican's (right now) have no one worth a damn who could match up with an incumbant president. Even one as weak and indecisive as Obama. Palin is a farce.

Like it or not, I sure we'll get Obama for another four years. :mad:

:helmet:

[Chopper Dave]

So why would the Dems throw up another candidate and try and split their own vote? That's absurd. Obama, good or bad is the incumbant and they will back him 100%. Any other runner who claims to be a Dem will get zero funding from the party.

The Republican's (right now) have no one worth a damn who could match up with an incumbant president. Even one as weak and indecisive as Obama. Palin is a farce.

Like it or not, I sure we'll get Obama for another four years. :mad:

:helmet:

Carter had a pretty hefty challenge in 1980 from Kennedy, so logically speaking it's not impossible for the Dems to put up someone else if things start to get really bad and Obama's approval ratings drop even more. However, things are different now and Hillary, basically the 2010 equivalent of 1980's Ted Kennedy, is the only one who could maybe stage some sort of primary challenge, and she definitely wouldn't do it. So you're basically right as far as an internal challenge goes.

However, a serious Republican challenge is likely. The base is going to be pushing hard to take back some Congressional seats, so the funding will be flowing freely, and any Republican who has the chops to pass through a modern-day primary will definitely push Obama in the general. It'll be way closer than last time, if for no other reason than the fact that Palin won't be on the ticket to drag it down. My guess is a Romney/some Southern guy ticket, and if that's the case, it could go either way depending on the state of the country in 2012.

[88Comrade2000]

However, a serious Republican challenge is likely. The base is going to be pushing hard to take back some Congressional seats, so the funding will be flowing freely, and any Republican who has the chops to pass through a modern-day primary will definitely push Obama in the general. It'll be way closer than last time, if for no other reason than the fact that Palin won't be on the ticket to drag it down. My guess is a Romney/some Southern guy ticket, and if that's the case, it could go either way depending on the state of the country in 2012.

Romney will not get the nomination. He will crash and burn like he did last time. The religious right who are really key in the early primaries will never support Romney. Romney would lose both the Iowa Caucuses and South Carolina primary. He could win New Hampshire but that won't take him far.

I'll still say it's Palin's if she wants it and then she will be trounced in the fall. Also, if the Republicans fail to meet their oversized expectations this fall; there will be split that could carry over into the 2012 primaries.

[Chopper Dave]

Romney will not get the nomination. He will crash and burn like he did last time. The religious right who are really key in the early primaries will never support Romney. Romney would lose both the Iowa Caucuses and South Carolina primary. He could win New Hampshire but that won't take him far.

I'll still say it's Palin's if she wants it and then she will be trounced in the fall. Also, if the Republicans fail to meet their oversized expectations this fall; there will be split that could carry over into the 2012 primaries.

If Romney could steal one of the first two, which is entirely possible, it's his. He's moderate enough to win the center, which is really all you need. You can pander right. Look at McCain.

Palin is a complete lightweight and probably won't even end up running. I know the SarahPac thing raises eyebrows, but ultimately, nationwide, the Republicans are too smart to nominate someone that unfit for high office. A large reason for the unravelling of the McCain 2008 campaign was the selection of Palin as his running mate. It was transparent. The McCain campaign didn't give the electorate enough credit when they nominated her, much as you're not giving them enough credit now.

Palin is a joke, a footnote. You're absolutely right that she would crash and burn as the nominee in 2012, which is exactly why she never will get there.

[88Comrade2000]

If Romney could steal one of the first two, which is entirely possible, it's his. He's moderate enough to win the center, which is really all you need. You can pander right. Look at McCain.

Palin is a complete lightweight and probably won't even end up running. I know the SarahPac thing raises eyebrows, but ultimately, nationwide, the Republicans are too smart to nominate someone that unfit for high office. A large reason for the unravelling of the McCain 2008 campaign was the selection of Palin as his running mate. It was transparent. The McCain campaign didn't give the electorate enough credit when they nominated her, much as you're not giving them enough credit now.

Palin is a joke, a footnote. You're absolutely right that she would crash and burn as the nominee in 2012, which is exactly why she never will get there.

Romney is too liberal. A flip flopper who changes positions to suit whatever he runs for. That MA healthcare will be smashed on his head.

I fully expect the Republicans to go right, not center. What you are seeing now will even be more amplified during the 2012 season. All the tea party is, is the purification of the Republican to make sure they are to the right and conservative. Last thing they will do is nominate a wish washy candidate like Romney.

[greenspandan]

i am 100% sure the democrats won't challenge obama seriously. republicans, who knows.

mccain in '08 was not a great candidate. republicans were at best ambivalent about him, while dems were electrified for obama. palin was a strategically-necessary hail mary pass that ultimately was picked off and returned for a td.

none of the republican field from '08 can beat obama in '12. maybe someone can come out of nowhere and catch a wave, but it won't be one of them.

[Chopper Dave]

Romney is too liberal. A flip flopper who changes positions to suit whatever he runs for. That MA healthcare will be smashed on his head.

I fully expect the Republicans to go right, not center. What you are seeing now will even be more amplified during the 2012 season. All the tea party is, is the purification of the Republican to make sure they are to the right and conservative. Last thing they will do is nominate a wish washy candidate like Romney.

I think, and history dictates, that you're overestimating the Republicans' willingness to cut off their nose to spite their face. They want to win, first and foremost, and Romney has the name recognition and the centrist politics to do that. Overall they'll probably trend more right, but they're not going to run someone who can't win; Reagan was the last really conservative Republican to win a general election, and in 1980, Carter was pretty much as good as a stuffed suit. Actually, a stuffed suit probably would've stood more of a chance.

[Chopper Dave]

palin was a strategically-necessary hail mary pass that ultimately was picked off and returned for a td

I think that's completely and utterly incorrect. The campaign was pretty close at that point. It was pretty close for most of it, actually. The Palin pick was a failed hail mary, but it most certainly wasn't necessary. After Palin was added, McCain's campaign went from a boring but stable ship to a sinking one. Many of the millions of voters sitting on the fence saw right through the choice and picked it out as the cheap stunt that it was, and their votes immediately went into the Obama column.

[Teller]

With healthcare being one of the primary issues conservatives are hammering Obama on, it's pretty asinine, IMO, to think the GOP would nominate Romney.

Also, Palin will not be the nominee. And Obama will be unopposed in the dem primary.

[DarrellsMyHero28]

Bobby Jindal is probably the only viable candidate

[sly]

Ron Paul! Unfortunately, he'd bring too much sanity.

[Teller]

Bobby Jindal is probably the only viable candidate

Why do you think that?

(Not saying you're necessarily wrong, just curious about your rationale.)

[Blackest Eyes]

Ron Paul! Unfortunately, he'd bring too much sanity.

I'd be okay with that. He is a little old though.

[fullnelson9999]

Bobby Jindal is probably the only viable candidate

The irony on the Republican side would be overwhelming if Jindal is nominated.

At least to me.

[Chopper Dave]

With healthcare being one of the primary issues conservatives are hammering Obama on, it's pretty asinine, IMO, to think the GOP would nominate Romney.

Also, Palin will not be the nominee. And Obama will be unopposed in the dem primary.

It's not so asinine considering he's won practically every straw poll taken since the election. He's got the fundraising framework set up, he can hit the ground running, and politically, he fits what can win a general election. It's asinine to hastily strike him from consideration this far out.

[Chopper Dave]

The irony on the Republican side would be overwhelming if Jindal is nominated.

At least to me.

The problem with Bobby Jindal is that he doesn't seem Presidential in the least. His Kenneth the Page impression in that response to Obama's speech was probably enough to kill his candidacy in the short term.

[chipwhich]

i am 100% sure the democrats won't challenge obama seriously. republicans, who knows.

WOW now there is something prophetic.

The Dems won't challenge a sitting president.

Great call.

[deejaydana]

why do we need this thread now? I'm just going to sit back and enjoy what happens this November. My earnest hope? That more people push toward third party candidates and abandon the rank and file Dems and Repubs. They both stink at this point to me

[Hubbs]

It's gonna be someone we're not talking about right now. All of the names currently being suggested are borderline awful, save Pawlenty, and I'd describe him as average at best.

Remember when Hillary was already the Democratic nominee in 2006? The next Republican candidate is out there. We just don't know who he/she is yet.

[Teller]

It's not so asinine considering he's won practically every straw poll taken since the election. He's got the fundraising framework set up, he can hit the ground running, and politically, he fits what can win a general election. It's asinine to hastily strike him from consideration this far out.

The fact that he gave Mass. Obamacare before Obama gave us Obamacare will be enough to turn off any actual conservative.

And this is superficial, but he looks to me like he should be selling used cars, not trying to sell himself to America.

[88Comrade2000]

I think that's completely and utterly incorrect. The campaign was pretty close at that point. It was pretty close for most of it, actually. The Palin pick was a failed hail mary, but it most certainly wasn't necessary. After Palin was added, McCain's campaign went from a boring but stable ship to a sinking one. Many of the millions of voters sitting on the fence saw right through the choice and picked it out as the cheap stunt that it was, and their votes immediately went into the Obama column.

He wanted Lieberman and if did that, the conservatives would've walked out of the convention. Palin actually energized the base for a moment.

The race was never really close. Mccain was mentally unfit for the office and he showed it. Mccain was never really going to win because the base despised him.

[88Comrade2000]

why do we need this thread now? I'm just going to sit back and enjoy what happens this November. My earnest hope? That more people push toward third party candidates and abandon the rank and file Dems and Repubs. They both stink at this point to me

Actually, if you have more incumbents losing in the primaries/conventions that by election day the Dems probably won't suffer as much as everyone thinks they will.

I say they retain both Houses of congress and lose about 20-25 house seats and 5 Senate seats.