Om Field: Analysis of Shanahan's Draft Tendencies in Denver

[Om]

The Daily Redskin 2.12.10

If you are a Washington Redskins fan in the mood for a little meat on them pre-draft analysis bones, help yourself to some tasty Mike Shanahan draft history and number-crunching from Aston Gambino's always-satisfying (if too infrequent!) blog, Are You Not Entertained?

Perhaps the most compelling question, if not the most important, is what will new head coach Mike Shanahan do on draft day?

... In an effort to get a gauge on Shanahan's positional draft tendencies, I analyzed all 111 draft picks he made during his tenure with the Denver Broncos between 1995 and 2008, breaking each pick down by position to see if anything popped out. Hardly an exact science, but it'll have to do until those tarot cards finally show up.

First, let's look at the raw totals by position. And uh, Carlos? You might want to 'pay attention' to this.

Apparently, if you can run fast, you're Shanahan's guy! In terms of quantity, you can clearly see his tendency to draft DBs, WRs and RBs more than any other position.

In terms of the positions we're interested in (QB and OT), neither were particularly popular. In 13 drafts, only six QBs and five OTs were drafted by Shanahan. Not really the compelling statistical argument I was looking for.

Ah, but what about where they were drafted? After all, quality matters more than quantity in this case, especially when talking about the first pick. Curious to see how Shanahan valued certain positions, I assigned each of those draft picks their appropriate point total from Jimmy's Johnson's dreaded Draft Day Chart.

And that exercise proved to be much more interesting ...

CLICK HERE to read more ...

[fansince62]

bogus he cried!

the analysis is skewed (no account for variance...too simplistic) - QB was drafted lower ON AVERAGE because he had an established QB in Elway. as soon as that went away...whoops...Cutler is drafted in the first round at number 11!

by all appearances.....Shanahan apepars to draft by need...not position.

[kappaluvacee]

Thanks OM. Great find. Some food for thought. Even though it isn't a scientific study I think it's more telling about his basic philosophy.

[Chump Bailey]

Round 1: Russell Okung, OT

Round 2: Colt McCoy, QB

I see absolutely no point in drafting Colt in the 2nd round personally. It's Sam or nothing IMO unless we're talking long term project type QB. Given the extended duration of the draft, I think we could see many more trades. I personally would like us to trade down multiple times.

[die.hard.skins.fan]

bogus he cried!

the analysis is skewed (no account for variance...too simplistic) - QB was drafted lower ON AVERAGE because he had an established QB in Elway. as soon as that went away...whoops...Cutler is drafted in the first round at number 11!

by all appearances.....Shanahan apepars to draft by need...not position.

Completely agree with you, it's a shame people try to make coaches into something they're not

[mistertim]

bogus he cried!

the analysis is skewed (no account for variance...too simplistic) - QB was drafted lower ON AVERAGE because he had an established QB in Elway. as soon as that went away...whoops...Cutler is drafted in the first round at number 11!

by all appearances.....Shanahan apepars to draft by need...not position.

It didn't happen exactly like that, though. He went with Plummer for 3 years before he drafted Cutler. To me that sort of sounds like he wants a decent relatively experienced QB who he can work with until he comes upon a guy in the draft he REALLY likes. And by most accounts he was quite smitten with Cutler. I'd find it much more likely if he went Tackle, or traded down for more OL picks this year and keeps Campbell for at least a year or two before he really goes hard after a new QB. And I also don't see him picking Colt McCoy, to be honest.

[jhug]

bogus he cried!

the analysis is skewed (no account for variance...too simplistic) - QB was drafted lower ON AVERAGE because he had an established QB in Elway. as soon as that went away...whoops...Cutler is drafted in the first round at number 11!

by all appearances.....Shanahan apepars to draft by need...not position.

This isn't exactly correctbetween Elway and Cutler MS either traded for or signed Jake Plummer. It's was only when Plummer couldn't decide how much of his heart was still in football and skipped most of the offseason program did MS draft a QB.

[Rocky21]

Two additional clicks, one article.

So, what does all this mean? In all honestly, probably nothing.

[Gurgeh]

What I'd take from that study is that he's not going to be averse to drafting a tackle at number 4.

[The Rook]

That was fun, but I couldn't really call it "meat". More like mac and cheese - you could make a meal of it but I prefer not to.

:helmet:The Rook

[jhug]

What I'd take from that study is that he's not going to be averse to drafting a tackle at number 4.

+1 --- That's because he's a football guy.

[MGutta]

I enjoyed the read.

" Not sure what happened to their first 3 picks, maybe Vinny was interning for them at the time. " LOL that was gold.

But yeah, like the previous posters, I didn't really like the mock. I think that if we draft OL in the first, unless Shanny likes Tebow, that we shouldn't even draft a QB. If we opted to go OL in the 1st, I'd like to see the whole line get built up and get a couple of backs like Blount and Coker.

[Om]

bogus he cried!

the analysis is skewed (no account for variance...too simplistic) - QB was drafted lower ON AVERAGE because he had an established QB in Elway. as soon as that went away...whoops...Cutler is drafted in the first round at number 11!

by all appearances.....Shanahan apepars to draft by need...not position.

"Bogus?" Little cabin fever, huh brother. Seems to me he put in a whole lot more effort on his research than thosae of you offering only dismissive critique.

Some people got worn out having to click their mouse twice, others apparently haven't had lunch yet.

Perhaps someone will take the raw research at the heart of the piece--which is what I took to be its main value--and do some actual analysis of their own (I'm an optimistic kind of guy). Haven't had time to do it myself yet, but I intend to. Perhaps you do as well ...

[98BigBody]

Shanny draft record is solid,but not great by any means.Sure he has drafted a few good platers,but over all he is average...way too arrogrant..Maurice Clarett that high of a pick, The whole entire Florida gators Dlinemen,The Browns Dline? MS let B.Berry,and T.Price leave? I know the offseason is most Skins fan favorite time of the year,but call a Spade a Spade,Mike Shanny is slightly better than Average when it comes to Gm responsibilites....Hell of a coach,slightly above average GM

[Commander Adama]

Thanks Om! Again, as always an awesome read!

[Commander Adama]

Excellent analysis. As far as QB's it is kind of skewed since he had inherited Elway, so of course you would take chances on later round QBs. After Elway left, you can see how he tried to use middle-round QBs and Free Agents for a little bit until he say a QB he had wanted. Jay Cutler. I can also agree, that when he has a Franchise QB he definitely puts more value on Tackle. I see it as:

Round 1: Sam Bradford

Round 2: Charles Brown

[jflow78]

I've been linked to a link of an article, I feel violated.

His draft prediction for us, at the end of the article, is pretty close to what I think we'll end up with. The closer we get to the draft workouts the more I feel like Bradford will be gone by #4. If a report comes out that his shoulder is in great shape, I don't think he makes it to us. If that's the case, I do hope we trade down a few spots.

You know what would be REALLY funny. What is Shanahan was using our "desire" to draft a QB as a smoke screen so we could trade down! :twitch: What he really wants is to mold JC into a HoF QB!

Nah, I'm just kidding.

But man, people would be SOOOOOO ******* mad, that part would be hilarious. The part that would suck would be watching offensive (take that either way) for another 3 years until he decides JC is indeed...........that's for another thread.

[icbmayday]

Good post I hope Bruce is going to be a big part of deciding on players

SPEED DOES NOT MEAN NFL CAPABLE

[jflow78]

Good post I hope Bruce is going to be a big part of deciding on players

SPEED DOES NOT MEAN NFL CAPABLE

WHAT?! Are you honestly going to tell me that Al Davis doesn't know what he's doing?!

[fansince62]

It didn't happen exactly like that, though. He went with Plummer for 3 years before he drafted Cutler. To me that sort of sounds like he wants a decent relatively experienced QB who he can work with until he comes upon a guy in the draft he REALLY likes. And by most accounts he was quite smitten with Cutler. I'd find it much more likely if he went Tackle, or traded down for more OL picks this year and keeps Campbell for at least a year or two before he really goes hard after a new QB. And I also don't see him picking Colt McCoy, to be honest.

reasonable insights. response: the QB strategy you have in mind runs counter to the philosophy the new GM has forwarded for "winning now". Most likely it also doesn't represent Shanahan's philosophy either. You're talking 4 possibly 5 years before all the pieces are in place.

anywho...I see where you are coming from. I only wanted to dispute what I thought was incomplete statistical analysis.

This isn't exactly correctbetween Elway and Cutler MS either traded for or signed Jake Plummer. It's was only when Plummer couldn't decide how much of his heart was still in football and skipped most of the offseason program did MS draft a QB.

the point is that Shanahan drafted a QB high because circumstances dictated he had to. The linked argument is advanced to serve as a predictive tool - my point is that there is variance going on behind the scenes that explains the observed behavior...not some bizarre commitment to draft DBs and RBs every time he has the opportunity.

[GameWinner]

I say this would be more accurate once you combine all the O-Line positions. Also, once you find a good person at a position it isnt neccessary to draft someone there. For example, each team needs CBs and WRs because the roster holds a lot of them and theres a lot of turnover at those positions. This is why the results are skewed.

[fansince62]

"Bogus?" Little cabin fever, huh brother. Seems to me he put in a whole lot more effort on his research than thosae of you offering only dismissive critique.

Some people got worn out having to click their mouse twice, others apparently haven't had lunch yet.

Perhaps someone will take the raw research at the heart of the piece--which is what I took to be its main value--and do some actual analysis of their own (I'm an optimistic kind of guy). Haven't had time to do it myself yet, but I intend to. Perhaps you do as well ...

admired sage: if one is going to venture into the murky wters of statistical analysis..then do a thorough job! the analysis completely missed variance and made no effort to connect statistics to context. I'm not stooling on the intent of the effort...it's interesting and "better than most". it just has some weaknesses that we brain police on ES are obligated to wring out!!!

Good post I hope Bruce is going to be a big part of deciding on players

SPEED DOES NOT MEAN NFL CAPABLE

does slow mean NFL incapable?

Excellent analysis. As far as QB's it is kind of skewed since he had inherited Elway, so of course you would take chances on later round QBs. After Elway left, you can see how he tried to use middle-round QBs and Free Agents for a little bit until he say a QB he had wanted. Jay Cutler. I can also agree, that when he has a Franchise QB he definitely puts more value on Tackle. I see it as:

Round 1: Sam Bradford

Round 2: Charles Brown

agree.

[Enter Apotheosis]

"Bogus?" Little cabin fever, huh brother. Seems to me he put in a whole lot more effort on his research than thosae of you offering only dismissive critique.

While his dismissiveness was perhaps a little harsh, it's perfectly valid in it's own right. The data pulled up was interesting but it is not a terribly useful tool in and of itself because it completely disregards circumstance.

As has been pointed out by fansince62, there's going to be more players of certain positions drafted because you rely more heavily on your depth for those positions. You're going to frequently make use of 5 DB and 3/4 wide sets, guys who generally can't merely be considered depth or project players because of their heavy involvement in the gameplan. On the other hand, you're only going to have two OTs, two OGs, and one OC seeing heavy action. In general, the first graph looks like exactly what you would expect from any organization with one notable exception: RB.

The second and third graphs are more interesting and perhaps more insightful on the whole but are still flawed by virtue of the fact that you're dealing with a relatively small sample size that is easily skewed by one or two picks. Hell, this is even acknowledged by Mr. Gambino in the article.

It's ultimately just one of those cases where the numbers don't mean a whole lot. I would say that knowing Shanahan's team philosophy would be much more useful in terms of predicting the draft, the trouble being that it's a little bit hard to gauge from a defensive standpoint right now. The first two weeks of free agency will also be key in giving us a more developed picture of our draft intent.

Good post I hope Bruce is going to be a big part of deciding on players

SPEED DOES NOT MEAN NFL CAPABLE

This is a pretty good example of why I'm not a big fan of the analysis, it is a little misleading to some. Shanahan is not Al Davis, he is smart enough to look at things other than 40-time and is not obsessed with skill position players. However, one of the knocks on him has been that he overvalues potential to the point where he will overlook character concerns and take risks in the draft. Sometimes his eye for potential pays off big time but it backfires perhaps more frequently.

[Om]

Al,

Aston doesn't need me to fight his fight, but I will at least point you to the end of piece---you know, where he falls all over himself to say that the "statistical analysis" he did is, well ...

So, what does all this mean? In all honestly, probably nothing. Each draft is unique, each year presents its own needs and directions, not to mention that every one of those draft picks were the result of the collective minds of many, not just Shanahan. Take into account that Bruce Allen is in the mix as well, and all of this draft history in Denver could be completely irrelevant.

But what fun is that? So instead of rationalizing back to the fact that I have absolutely no clue what's going to happen, I have a better idea.

ASTON'S 2010 REDSKINS MOCK DRAFT ...

You DID read all the way to the end before deploying the bazooka, right? :cool:

*

Oh btw ... brain police say "use multi-quote."

[Neophyte]

bogus he cried!

the analysis is skewed (no account for variance...too simplistic) - QB was drafted lower ON AVERAGE because he had an established QB in Elway. as soon as that went away...whoops...Cutler is drafted in the first round at number 11!

by all appearances.....Shanahan apepars to draft by need...not position.

Incorrect sir.

Elway retired in 99 and Cutler was not drafted until 2006. That is 7 years and 7 drafts in between, not to mention anything Shanahan did before Elway retired when he knew he would have replace John someday (like drafting Brian Griese in the 3rd round of the 98 draft).