WP: January unemployment rate drops to 9.7 percent

[@DCGoldPants]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/05/AR2010020500396.html?hpid=topnews

January unemployment rate drops to 9.7 percent

By Neil Irwin

Washington Post Staff Writer

Friday, February 5, 2010; 9:48 AM

The unemployment rate showed a surprisingly steep decline in January even as the nation continued to shed jobs, the government said Friday, in a report that suggested the labor market picture remains mixed.

Employers slashed 20,000 net jobs in January, the Labor Department said, compared to the 13,000 gain that economists had forecast. November and December results were revised down slightly. But the biggest surprise was the unemployment rate, which declined to 9.7 percent; analysts had expected it to be unchanged at 10 percent.

The two sets of numbers are based on different studies, with job gain and loss numbers coming from a survey of employers and the unemployment based on a survey of American households. In the long run, the numbers track together, but in the short run they can diverge. That's what happened in January, suggesting a murky picture for the labor market.

On the one hand, businesses continued to pare back on their employee counts in January, though at a modest pace that suggests the labor market is slowly but surely recovering from the prolonged recession. Employers have been slow to add to their payrolls, fearful that recent upticks in business--as reflected in a 5.7 percent rate of growth for gross domestic product in the fourth quarter--are temporary. But there has been a steady downward trend in the number of jobs lost over the past year, and many analysts now forecast a return to job growth in the next few months.

The drop in the unemployment rate came as 430,000 fewer Americans described themselves as unemployed. The ratio of people with jobs to the population edged up, to 58.4 percent, from 58.2 percent. That is good news, though many economists expect the jobless rate to creep higher in the months ahead as workers who had given up looking for a job out of frustration return to the labor force.

Some of the details of the report support the idea that the job market continued its gradual healing in January. For example, the number of temporary jobs rose by 52,000. Some businesses may be fulfilling rising demand for their products by hiring temps, remaining too uncertain about the future to hire permanent workers. Still, that could presage future hiring, assuming the higher demand remains.

And the average workweek rose to 33.9 hours from 33.8 hours. Some employers may bring existing workers in for longer hours before adding to their payrolls.

The report also contained a once-a-year recalibration of earlier employment data based upon more complete information, a process known as "benchmarking." Some 902,000 more jobs were lost in March 2009 than was earlier thought, because more businesses went under and fewer new ones were started than had been originally estimated. The number was unsurprising, however, as the Labor Department had already indicated that the benchmarking process would lead to its employment figures being marked down by about 824,000 positions.

The strongest employment gains were in the retail sector, which added 42,100 jobs, and professional and business services, which was boosted by the gain in temporary employment. The number of government positions rose by 33,000, though that figure was inflated somewhat by the hiring of 9,000 workers for the every-ten-years Census. Those jobs which will be eliminated later in the year.

The biggest job losses were in the construction sector, which shed 75,000 jobs.

[Kilmer17]

Starting to see a trend developing.

Good news.

Obama should POUNCE on this.

[@DCGoldPants]

Starting to see a trend developing.

Good news.

Obama should POUNCE on this.

Right after he walks around D.C. with a snow shovel.....digging out old ladies and babies who need medical help.

[wantarace17]

Very good news i was about to destroy him on another forum about expanding the Us debt. I would still like to see it below 8% in the next year

[AsburySkinsFan]

w00t w00t!!!

BTW, I almost fell out of my chair from shock reading this post Kilmer. :peace1:

Starting to see a trend developing.

Good news.

Obama should POUNCE on this.

[Teller]

On very rare occasions, like when looking at un/underemployment right now, I miss Bill Clinton.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I need to go take a scalding-hot shower and get the "ick" off me.

[Dan T.]

Most of the bump is from unemployed gays joining the military.

[DirtyBird]

Still lost jobs last month. Bottom line is less people were working in Jan than were in Dec. I'll start to feel better when we gain non-temp jobs.

[Teller]

Most of the bump is from unemployed gays joining the military.

:ols:

[twa]

Most of the bump is from unemployed gays joining the military.

Yeah,but only those that know how to keep quiet.:pfft:

[SkinsHokieFan]

Because I am just a jerk

http://www.democraticunderground.com//discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x7645529

Non-Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Hits Record HIGH: 10.6% (U3) and 18% (U6)

The January NFP number came in at -20,000, a mere 5k away from Goldman's -25,000 estimate. Consensus was for +15,000. December, as all prior months, saw an expected major downward revision to -150,000 from -85,000. The January Birth/Death adjustment was for -427K from +25K in December. Despite a deterioration in every metric, the unemployment rate dropped from 10.% to 9.7%, even with a consensus at 10.0%. A glitch in the excel model is further corroborated when one considers that the civilian labor force participation rate actually rose in January from 64.6 to 64.7.

Yet a number that avoids some of the constant fudging by the BLS, the Non-Seasonally Adjusted number, hit a new recent record: instead of 9.7%, this number was 10.6%, a 0.9% increase from December!

The same can be seen in the U-6 data. NSA U-6 is now at a record 18%, even as the seasonally adjusted number declined to 16.5%.

Below is the full text of the BLS Commissioner's Statement on the Employment Situtation:

Employment in temporary help services grew by 52,000 over the month. This industry, which provides workers to other businesses, has added nearly a quarter of a million jobs since its recent low point last September. Following 2 months of little change, retail trade employment increased by 42,000 in January, with gains in several components. Health care employment continued to rise in January. Overall, manufacturing employment was little changed, although motor vehicles and parts added 23,000 jobs. Since June, the manufacturing workweek for all employees has increased by 1.2 hours.

Federal government employment rose in January, partly due to hiring for the decennial census. Employment in state and local governments, excluding education, continued to trend down over the month.

Average hourly earnings of all employees in the private sector rose by 4 cents in January to $22.45. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.0 percent. From December 2008 to December 2009, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by 2.8 percent.

Turning now to some measures from our household survey, both the number of unemployed persons (14.8 million) and the unemployment rate (9.7 percent) declined in January. However, the share of those jobless for 27 weeks and over continued to rise.

The employment-population ratio increased to 58.4 percent over the month. The number of persons working part time who would have preferred full-time employment dropped from 9.2 to 8.3 million, the lowest level in a year.

Before closing, I would note that several changes were introduced today to the Employment Situation news release text and tables. Three new household survey tables provide information on the employment status of veterans, persons with a disability, and the foreign-born population.

In January, the unemployment rate of veterans from Gulf War era II (September 2001 to the present) was 12.6 percent, compared with 10.4 percent for nonveterans. Persons with a disability had a higher jobless rate than persons with no disability--15.2 versus 10.4 percent. In addition, 21.8 percent of persons with a disability were in the labor force, compared with 70.1 percent of persons without a disability. The unemployment rate for the foreign born was 11.8 percent, and the rate

for the native born was 10.3 percent. (The data in these new tables are not seasonally adjusted.)

The establishment survey tables have been redesigned to include the addition of data on hours and earnings for all private-sector employees as well as employment information for women. Women currently make up 49.9 percent of total nonfarm payroll employment, compared with 48.8 percent when the recession began in December 2007. Additional information about the new and redesigned tables is available on the BLS Web site.

I would also note that there were annual adjustments to data from our two surveys. The establishment survey data released today reflect the incorporation of annual benchmark revisions. Each year, we re-anchor our sample-based survey estimates to full universe counts of employment, primarily derived from administrative records of the unemployment insurance tax system. Accounting for revisions during the benchmark and post-benchmark periods, the previously published level of total nonfarm

employment for December 2009 was revised downward by 1,363,000. Household survey data for January reflect updated population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. Further information about the impact of these adjustments is contained in our news release and on our Web site.

Returning now to the labor market data we released this morning, the jobless rate declined to 9.7 percent in January, and payroll employment was essentially unchanged.

[Tulane Skins Fan]

On very rare occasions, like when looking at un/underemployment right now, I miss Bill Clinton.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I need to go take a scalding-hot shower and get the "ick" off me.

So, you had the exact opposite reaction that Monica Lewinsky had to the ick that Clinton leaves on you.

[zoony]

This is just terrible news:

1. The economy is still shedding jobs.

2. This is the Great Depression Part II

3. The Fed is evil

4. Obama is a tax and spend liberal commie

5. TARP was unfair to taxpayers

6. This trend is only because the economy is being propped up by the government

7. I wish Obama had private industry people in his cabinet

8. I just wet my pants

9. Did you see Avatar? It was a liberal conspiracy

10. I'll wait to hear from Ron Paul before I decide how I should feel about any of this.

.....

[Seabee1973]

This is just terrible news:

8. I just wet my pants

.....

TMI Way to much TMI

[twa]

Because I am just a jerk

Dude... ya gonna ruin the surprise at the adjustment.

I was at least gonna wait till noon to piss all over the good news

[AsburySkinsFan]

This is just terrible news:

1. The economy is still shedding jobs.

2. This is the Great Depression Part II

3. The Fed is evil

4. Obama is a tax and spend liberal commie

5. TARP was unfair to taxpayers

6. This trend is only because the economy is being propped up by the government

7. I wish Obama had private industry people in his cabinet

8. I just wet my pants

9. Did you see Avatar? It was a liberal conspiracy

10. I'll wait to hear from Ron Paul before I decide how I should feel about any of this.

.....

Finally an argument by number guide, I bet no one really admits #8 though

[NavyDave]

I remember those terrible first 6 years of Dubba Ya.

When he was in charge with 4.7 to 5.2 unemployment and liberals saying how bad life was.

Maybe we will suffer thru times like that again in 2012.

[December90]

Hey, if we can get more of the unemployed to just "give up" then they will be removed from the numbers and we can get the unemployment back down to 8%. Who needs to add more jobs, just discourage people from actually looking for one so they no longer count as unemployed and problem solved...

[TheGoodBits]

Hey, if we can get more of the unemployed to just "give up" then they will be removed from the numbers and we can get the unemployment back down to 8%. Who needs to add more jobs, just discourage people from actually looking for one so they no longer count as unemployed and problem solved...

So you're saying, instead of bank bailouts, we should just give 1 million dollars to every unemployed person to get the rate down close to 0. I like it.

[JMS]

Still lost jobs last month. Bottom line is less people were working in Jan than were in Dec. I'll start to feel better when we gain non-temp jobs.

How can unemployment drop from 10.1% to 9.7% and we still lost jobs? That's not right, is it?

OK so I see. The adjusted number reflects newer better jobless numbers from prevous months. It's also helped by a slowing of unemployment numbers. Although we are loosing a lot fewer jobs, we still aren't net adding jobs, so people are going out the back door because we only count unemployment numbers for three months or so.

[SnyderShrugged]

This is just terrible news:

1. The economy is still shedding jobs.

2. This is the Great Depression Part II

3. The Fed is evil

4. Obama is a tax and spend liberal commie

5. TARP was unfair to taxpayers

6. This trend is only because the economy is being propped up by the government

7. I wish Obama had private industry people in his cabinet

8. I just wet my pants

9. Did you see Avatar? It was a liberal conspiracy

10. I'll wait to hear from Ron Paul before I decide how I should feel about any of this.

.....

Ron Paul says you need to read SHF's post before your celebrating begins:evilg:

[DeanCollins]

This is just terrible news:

8. I just wet my pants

side effect from the koolaide :koolaid:

[ljs]

this only talks about those collecting unemployment. You can still be unemployed and just not able to collect it anymore...so I don't buy it.

Anyway, Washington state's unemployment claims rose to 10.1%...add me in that ( I claim in Washington since that is where I worked, not Idaho)

[twa]

this only talks about those collecting unemployment. You can still be unemployed and just not able to collect it anymore...so I don't buy it.

Anyway, Washington state's unemployment claims rose to 10.1%...add me in that ( I claim in Washington since that is where I worked, not Idaho)

Speaking of which

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/S0dSamkpncI/AAAAAAAAHNU/8xA6hqTts6c/s1600-h/UnemployedOver26Weeks.jpg

[hkHog]

LOL @ the people saying this is in any way good news. Did any of you read the article!?!?