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The argument for drafting QB at the #4 pick


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Lots of QB's don't impress anyone at this point in the season. We need to see how things play out with the combines before rushing to judgment. This topic is not to discuss which of the QB's are good or should be taken. Too many of you out there are against drafting a QB this year and this topic is to tell you why we should be drafting a QB and no other position this year with the #4 pick.

We have a few options with that pick that are being discussed right now:

#1) Taking a QB in this draft at #4 and sit him for a year or two while he learns the NFL game. This is the best answer

#2) Draft another position player (Name it this doesn't matter no other position will have as much impact as the QB will on the offense). These people often say we should be outsmarting everyone and hope the guy we want falls to the second round which isn't likely or producing enough results in the league to suggest doing.

#3) Draft a QB and playing him right from the start. Baptize him by fire like Flacco, Ryan, and Sanchez. Those men are the next coming of Trent Dilfer, not a stud like Payton Manning or Phillip Rivers. These men are an exception not a rule.

#4) Trade the pick and get more picks.

The problem with #4 is that it won't be likely to happen. The #4 pick comes with a huge contract and with the economic state of the league today every team wants to move down in the draft not up. Last year the Patriots traded for second round picks instead of first round picks because today they are more valuable. I would be ok with trading down in the first provided we take a QB in the first round eventually but I don't think that will be an option for the team so that's all I will say about that. It would be nice to trade the pick but it's not likely to happen.

Successful QB's are like fine wine, they take a while to get good. We don't address our QB problem by ignoring it. We do have a QB problem.

If Jason transforms into a winner then we have our franchise guy. I doubt that happens, he has a great heart and is tough but also has too many fundamental flaws. He's also 28. I don't think he's the answer 3 years down the road, if you don't either then you have to admit we need a QB. He can be useful for the next two years but I doubt he can take us to the promised land? If not, we need to replace him. Colt Brennan? Sorry but I've seen all of the stats this man's had in the NFL and they aren't pretty. What a guy did in college means nothing in the pro's. Unless Shanny sees something in him he is gone. That was Zorn's guy. To me we don't have our franchise QB on the team now. Where do we get him?

Should we expect a team does something like dump Drew Brees and we jump on him? We failed to recognize the potential in Brees when he was available the last time that happened. I don't think FA is going to be where we find our franchise QB.

This is a new NFL, we need to recognize that and accept that the rules today favor the QB's. The top rushing teams this year were:

1 - New York Jets

2 - Tennessee Titans

3 - Carolina Panthers

4 - Miami Dolphins

5 - Baltimore Ravens

The Jets and Ravens barely made the playoffs. The top passing teams this year were:

1 - Houston Texans

2 - Indianapolis Colts

3 - New England Patriots

4 - New Orleans Saints

5 - San Diego Chargers

All of these teams should have been in the playoffs and are the elite offensive teams in the league today. In addition you should notice that the number one team on this list had our new offensive coordinator driving the ship. He is going to want to pass the pass, ALOT. We need help at the QB position. We ranked 16th if your curious

Myth number one: Drafting a linemen is better then drafting a QB with our first pick since the line is in worse shape:

Everyone's favorite idea when it comes to the #4 pick is to ignore the QB position. They all say if we don't improve the line then we are screwed. I agree with this to an extent. I disagree with the ides we should use our #4 pick on a linemen. How many good winning teams do you see with 2nd or later linemen starting for them? I see many more teams doing that then I see teams winning with 2nd or later round QB prospects. Here's what I mean.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?type=position

We need to stop thinking that drafting a QB is a gamble like it used to be. What QB's drafted in the last 10 years have gone to success who were picked in the second round or later:

Trent Edwards - 3rd round, 2007

Kyle Orton - 4th round, 2005

Matt Cassel - 7th round, 2005

Matt Schaub - 3rd round, 2004

David Garrard - 4th round, 2002

Drew Brees - 2nd round (actually was 32nd pick which is a first round selection), 2001

Marc Bulger - 6th round, 2000

Tom Brady - 6th round, 2000

Aaron Brooks - 4th round, 1999

http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?type=position

There has been 127 QB's taken in the NFL draft during this time. There has only been 11 of these men turn out to be good players taken after round one. The success rate is much better drafting a QB in the first round then any other round.

Now lets look at the guys taken in the first round over the past 10 years and see how they did.

Bust or not a bust, that is the question.

You will probably will disagree about some of these but the idea is to show you that there is a much much higher success rate with first round QB picks then other rounds of the draft:

28 QB's have been picked in the first round of the NFL draft since 1999

18 OUT OF 28 QB's turned out not to be busts:

Aaron Rodgers - Not a Bust

Alex Smith - Not a Bust

Ben Roethlisberger - Not a Bust

Byron Leftwich - Not a Bust

Carson Palmer - Not a Bust

Chad Pennington - Not a Bust

Daunte Culpepper - Not a Bust

Donovan McNabb - Not a Bust

Eli Manning - Not a Bust

Jason Campbell - Not a Bust

Jay Cutler - Not a Bust

Joe Flacco - Not a Bust

Matt Leinart - Not a Bust

Matt Ryan - Not a Bust

Michael Vick - Not a Bust

Philip Rivers - Not a Bust

Rex Grossman - Not a Bust

Vince Young - Not a Bust

7 of these 28 men are considered busts:

Akili Smith

Cade McNown

David Carr

J.P. Losman

Joey Harrington

Kyle Boller

Patrick Ramsey

Tim Couch

3 of these 28 men are unknown. There current teams have not given up on them yet:

Brady Quinn

JaMarcus Russell

Matt Leinart

To me this shows that taking a QB in round one has a success rate of about 65% (combining the busts and unknowns against the not busts group). The success rate is much lower taking a QB after the first round.

My theory for why that is true is I think is directly related to the commitments that teams put into first round picks financially. These men get paid all of that money and teams don't want them to fail so they are brought along slowly and teams show more patience with them playing as a result. I believe its common today that teams know they need to sit a rookie for a year at least before playing him. Drafting a QB in round one is the better position to draft then the linemen because the owners and coaches are more patient with these men.

Myth number two - Other teams played rookie QB's and do fine; why can't we?:

Can you name the QB's out of the 8 Wildcard games who started more then half of the season as rookies?

They happen to be the worst statical QB's in the league that made the playoffs: The NY Jets Mark Sanchez and Baltimore's Joe Flacco.

The only other QB in the playoffs who started more then 50% of his rookie season was Payton Manning. Every other QB in the playoffs today sat a year or more before taking over as the starter. 3 out of 12 is the exception not the rule.

To give our future QB the best chance for success we should draft him this year and sit him. People say we have to fix the line. Well that's going to take time to do. Do you think that's just going to take one year to do? Drafting a QB this year with no intention to play him this season while we fix the team and making the commitment to not put him in to play until it is fixed should be the long term plan.

People point to last years Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, and this years Mark Sanchez as examples of QB's who played as rookies and didn't sit a year and had success. They say that a franchise QB doesn't have to sit a year because those men didn't. They point to the offensive line and say things like "we fix that, we can throw out a rookie"

My question against that is what kind of QB do you want? Look at the stats these men put out last year and this year. Ryan looked lost his second year, Flacco and Sanchez aren't the primary options for scoring points for there teams. They are ranked Flacco (15), Ryan (21), and Sanchez (23) over all other QB's in the league. This is the measuring stick you want to be judged against? Sorry but that's not what I want.

We have to realize that guys like Farve, Rivers, Brady, Brees, Romo sits to pee, and the elite QB's in the league sat for a year or longer and learned the game of football before playing. If you want the next Trent Dilfer then we could draft offensive linemen and then next year draft QB in round one and throw him out there immediately and maybe wish for great results but we'd be fooling ourselves doing that. The men who generally don't sit a year don't do as well as the men who do sit a year or longer.

Myth number three - We can draft our QB next year:

I think the point of draft position is to help your teams future. The worst teams go first, the best teams last. We are drafting at the #4 position this year. That's the highest draft position we've had since 2000. My question to you is do you suspect next year that we will be picking that high again? If not then how could you believe that we will have the guy we want to draft available to us then? The #4 pick means that there are only 3 teams in front of us who have the opportunity to take the guy we want. We have the best chance since 2000 to get the guy we want. Next year when we draft we will not likely be able to say this. There is no guarantee that the second best choice will be there when we pick again in the second round, in fact it's not likely he is. We need to take the opportunity to help ourselves and draft a QB at this pick and use the opportunity we gave ourselves by being terrible. Not to mention you can't get back a years time and experience a rookie will get sitting.

Myth number four - None of the QB's coming out are worth that pick:

Do you believe that every team knows what players are good before the draft? Do you believe that judging talent is done by watching games only? The Detroit Lions have picked seven times in the past ten years in the top 10 of the first round. They have watched other teams find there probowl players while they took scrub after scrub after scrub. Why? Because they didn't have good talent evaluators and scouts.

Lots of you out there say "None of those guys look NFL ready" and maybe your right and maybe your wrong. I think there are a few guys coming out that if they are handled properly can become solid to great NFL QB's. My point is no one knows how a QB's going to do in this league until he gets here and then you have to see how he is treated. I'll leave it up to the experts instead of listening to people around here tell you none of these guys are worth a damn.

To me the answer is clear. Our best move in April is to take a QB with the #4 pick. There are plenty of other topics to discuss which QB is the better choice and that's not what this is meant for. There are too many of you closed to the idea that the teams best long term solution is to draft our franchise QB this year because you say the #4 pick has to produce immediately, I disagree with that. If we take a QB I don't want him touching that field at all during his first year in a real game. I am not looking for the next Joe Flacco or Mark Sanchez, I want the next Phillip Rivers or Drew Brees. We have many problems to fix on this team before the next QB is thrown to the wolves. That is going to take 2 years to do. We should draft the QB this year we think is the best and we sit him for the next two years. If we spend the next two years fixing the teams issues on the offensive line, running back, etc. and then we unleash the beast in year three he will be given the best possible situation to succeed. Rebuilding takes time. Rome was not built in a day. A second round or later QB doesn't produce enough to expect much out of him so the answer to me is clear. We must draft a QB in round one of the NFL draft.

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So the top rushing team made the playoffs and the top passing team did not make the playoffs...

There are no QB's in this draft worthy of a #4 pick.

If we were to trade back to say the middle of the first round.. and grab whoever is left between Bradford and Clausen... then sure...

But #4 is too high for either of them IMO.

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I could swear there was a thread not so long ago about picking a QB at the #4 spot. Your is just long winded.

Trade down or get an offensive lineman is the best option right now. End of discussion.

Edit: Funny how you say start myth #4 and talk about talent and yet you don't know what we have in CB5.

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So the top rushing team made the playoffs and the top passing team did not make the playoffs...

Did you not read this or are you just unaware of who the teams in the playoffs are?

The top 5 rushing teams had two playoff teams in it, the NY Jets and the Baltimore Ravens. Both of these teams made the playoffs in the last week of the year and not likely to do much of anything in the playoffs.

The top 5 passing teams had 4 teams make the playoffs. The only team that missed it could have made it the last week of the year. The elite teams who got first round byes are on this list.

There are no QB's in this draft worthy of a #4 pick.

You have no idea about that and are just making that up. Prove otherwise.

If we were to trade back to say the middle of the first round.. and grab whoever is left between Bradford and Clausen... then sure...

But #4 is too high for either of them IMO.

Trading the #4 pick isn't likely to happen. Trading draft picks is something fans like to discuss but hardly ever happens. Last year the Jets sent the number 1 and 2 picks and 3 scrub players to the Browns to move up to the #5 position and took Sanchez. Sanchez then took that team to the playoffs this year.

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I could swear there was a thread not so long ago about picking a QB at the #4 spot. Your is just long winded.

Trade down or get an offensive lineman is the best option right now. End of discussion.

No it's not, history shows otherwise. Drafting a linemen is the wrong thing to do here. Otherwise prove it. State your case with facts as to why you feel there is no problem at QB now and that we are set here or ignore the post. I think most of this just goes over you head anyway

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Your "not a bust" list is awesome.

Aaron Rodgers - Not a Bust

Alex Smith - Not a Bust

Ben Roethlisberger - Not a Bust

Byron Leftwich - Not a Bust

Carson Palmer - Not a Bust

Chad Pennington - Not a Bust

Daunte Culpepper - Not a Bust

Donovan McNabb - Not a Bust

Eli Manning - Not a Bust

Jason Campbell - Not a Bust

Jay Cutler - Not a Bust

Joe Flacco - Not a Bust

Matt Leinart - Not a Bust

Matt Ryan - Not a Bust

Michael Vick - Not a Bust

Philip Rivers - Not a Bust

Rex Grossman - Not a Bust

Vince Young - Not a Bust

8 of those guys are in fact, complete busts. Vick went to freaking prison for christs sake and cost his team millions of dollars.

Rex freaking Grossman? Rex Grossman? That Rex Grossman? Not a bust? Holy crap.

This could have easily been posted in another thread.

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No it's not, history shows otherwise. Drafting a linemen is the wrong thing to do here. Otherwise prove it. State your case with facts as to why you feel there is no problem at QB now and that we are set here or ignore the post. I think most of this just goes over you head anyway

:doh:

Read my edit and get back to me.

How the hell is JC not a bust? He hasn't done anything to prove he is not!!!

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Nice post. Thanks.

I buy it. It appears that you are suggesting that we retain Campbell, right? I think (more importantly what does Shanahan think?) we could safely pick Bradford at the number four spot. But what if Bradford is taken? And the choice we have is Okung vs. Clausen? Wow. tough choice. So if Campbell is retained, why not pass on QB all together? I read and understand the grooming part. But if Shanahan thinks JC is a five-year solution...

What you say has a lot of merit. But if we are to put our faith in MS as to determine the worthiness of a 1st round QB selection. We also have to have faith in him NOT selecting a QB in the 1st round - if that's his decision.

Either way, gaining an Okung or Bradford is a plus at #4. It all kind of depends on what St Louis decides, huh? Otherwise, I may be inclined to trade down.

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Shanny and Allen and their braintrust know several NFL rosters in depth (especially in the AFC). I would not be surprised to see a trade for (hopefully) the next Farve or Brady stuck on the bench behind someone.

BUT TO THIS THREAD: If they can't get him, or he doesn't exist, I expect that as professionals they won't overreach. So, if they believe one of this years QB crop is skilled enough to be turned into a potential top10 NFL QB I think it is NFL-man law that he must be taken.

If they judge that these guys aren't all THAT, I think that they will EITHER go with JC. OR I think if they want a veteran back-up to run things for a bit in the uncapped they will bring in someone like David Carr, Daunte Culpepper, Rex "FREAKING" Grossman (who i agree was a bust), or Chad Pennington.

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Your "not a bust" list is awesome.

8 of those guys are in fact, complete busts. Vick went to freaking prison for christs sake and cost his team millions of dollars.

Which 8 are busts? Vick was not a bust. He revolutionized this position and took his team to the playoffs. He went to prison yes, but he wasn't a bust when he was playing.

Rex freaking Grossman? Rex Grossman? That Rex Grossman? Not a bust? Holy crap.

You must not realize or know, my guess if you don't know this, that Rex Grossman took his team to the Superbowl this decade. Again not a bust. Who else?

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That Colt McCoy injury thing was one of the weirdest I have ever seen. He had a dead arm even after the game.

I wonder what the recovery period is for that. Day(s)? Week(s)? Month(s)? Permanent loss of strength? How about the mental part? Is it a syndrome?

"Dead arm syndrome won't go away on its own with rest -- it must be treated. If there's a SLAP lesion, then surgery is needed to repair the problem. If the injury is caught before a SLAP tear, then physical therapy with stretching and exercise can restore it. This condition is called a superior labrum anterior posterior (SLAP) lesion."

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What a guy did in college means nothing in the pro's.

Guess that's the best part of your post. If that's true for Colt, then it's also true for any QB in this draft... qhich means you don't know what you'll get :)

Last thing I really don't get:

We don't address our QB problem by ignoring it. We do have a QB problem.

and

Jason Campbell - Not a Bust

Sorry to tell, but if he's no bust, then we do not have a QB problem. Sure he's 28, but that doesn't mean he can't play for more than 4 years (he'll be 32, which isn't that old considering other QBs).

Otherwise, if we do have a QB problem, then he's a bust.

Anyway, there's already tons of thread on this :)

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No it's not, history shows otherwise. Drafting a linemen is the wrong thing to do here. Otherwise prove it. State your case with facts as to why you feel there is no problem at QB now and that we are set here or ignore the post. I think most of this just goes over you head anyway

I, personally, feel that we are fine at the Quarterback position and so do professional football analyst and past Redskins players. (B Mitch, Joe Theismann) JC has shown that with a good O line and solid running back that he can get the job done. No need to draft a QB in this draft, too many other holes to fill. JC is fine.

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Did you not read this or are you just unaware of who the teams in the playoffs are?

The top 5 rushing teams had two playoff teams in it, the NY Jets and the Baltimore Ravens. Both of these teams made the playoffs in the last week of the year and not likely to do much of anything in the playoffs.

The top 5 passing teams had 4 teams make the playoffs. The only team that missed it could have made it the last week of the year. The elite teams who got first round byes are on this list.

You have no idea about that and are just making that up. Prove otherwise.

Trading the #4 pick isn't likely to happen. Trading draft picks is something fans like to discuss but hardly ever happens. Last year the Jets sent the number 1 and 2 picks and 3 scrub players to the Browns to move up to the #5 position and took Sanchez. Sanchez then took that team to the playoffs this year.

1) I read it... and like I said.. the top rushing team is in the playoffs and top passing team isn't :cool2:

2) I say this because Clausen has put up mediocre college stats... and he has a LOSING record as a starting QB. Bradford has been a winner, and puts up excellent stats... but he is a gamble currently given his injury situation.

3) Saying "Sanchez" took the team to the playoffs is not telling the whole truth.. lol. I think Dan Snyder could have quarterbacked that team to the playoffs. Sanchez did not play well... but it's understandable because he's a rookie.

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I could swear there was a thread not so long ago about picking a QB at the #4 spot. Your is just long winded.

Trade down or get an offensive lineman is the best option right now. End of discussion.

Edit: Funny how you say start myth #4 and talk about talent and yet you don't know what we have in CB5.

I agree that we have to get a player that is worth the value of the #4 pick but I want to point out that this is a weak class for OL. While you wouldn't want to reach for a QB you also don't want to pay a lineman money for a stud when they really aren't worth it.

And not directed at you but to anyone who just throws Okung out there as the guy we should get, he is NOT worth a #4 pick, VERY OVERRATED (and possibly a big concern due to injury)

http://seahawksdraft.blogspot.com/20...tton-bowl.html

At times he's very good in pass protection, when he engages one-on-one and sets himself, he generally does a good job. However, he just isn't 'dominant'. There were two huge plays in the fourth quarter where I just thought, "wow - that's not good."

The first instance came with 14:09 remaining and OSU with 2nd and 5. The quarterback Zach Robinson is under center and drops back to pass. Okung confronts the right defensive end off the snap, but the rusher simply moves inside, brushing past Okung as if he wasn't there. Even after the guy makes his way to the QB, it takes Okung 2-3 second to react to what's happened and by this point, he's stood in the open field looking at his QB being slammed into the ground. Robinson got up clutching his ribs and back. It was a general lack of effort to not even get his hands on the DE (who must be giving up around 30-40lbs on Okung) and the play in general looked very sloppy.

Okung should still be able to deliver some kind of a punch. He'll be facing bigger, faster guys in the NFL. I didn't see Anthony Davis get beat like Okung did today when I scouted Rutgers. When scouting last year's prospects, I didn't see Jason Smith, Eugene Monroe or Michael Oher get beat like Okung did today. Andre Smith I did - but his value was always as a run blocking right tackle.[/Quote]

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Nice post. Thanks.

I buy it. It appears that you are suggesting that we retain Campbell, right? I think (more importantly what does Shanahan think?) we could safely pick Bradford at the number four spot. But what if Bradford is taken? And the choice we have is Okung vs. Clausen? Wow. tough choice. So if Campbell is retained, why not pass on QB all together? I read and understand the grooming part. But if Shanahan thinks JC is a five-year solution...

Yes I can see a case for keeping Campbell this year sure.

Campbell is a very tough man. He is a good choice to play QB while we rebuild the team and fix the line. If he thinks he can put it all together and take the team deep into the playoffs in three years then I don't see why he has to take a QB. However I see JC as a guy we can use for 2 years and then replace. I suspect that is what he sees in him as well.

What you say has a lot of merit. But if we are to put our faith in MS as to determine the worthiness of a 1st round QB selection. We also have to have faith in him NOT selecting a QB in the 1st round - if that's his decision.

I believe that is going to be his biggest decision to make for us this year. Either take your guy now and groom him, or stick with the consequences of not doing it. This will come back to haunt him if he's wrong more then anything.

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Which 8 are busts? Vick was not a bust. He revolutionized this position and took his team to the playoffs. He went to prison yes, but he wasn't a bust when he was playing.

You must not realize or know, my guess if you don't know this, that Rex Grossman took his team to the Superbowl this decade. Again not a bust. Who else?

Right, so top picks at the QB position, who end up being free agents and riding pine as second and third stringers, who were suppose to be franchise players on other teams are not busts.

Did Vicks teams ever have back to back winning seasons or did he get injured and the NFL catch up how to stop him? Uh huh.

Vick didn't revolutionize jack **** either, except if you mean having a starting QB, who isn't very good a being a QB.

And the Bears went to the SB in spite of Rex, not because of him.

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1) I read it... and like I said.. the top rushing team is in the playoffs and top passing team isn't :cool2:

That probably more due to fumbling RBs, but yeah.

2) I say this because Clausen has put up mediocre college stats... and he has a LOSING record as a starting QB. Bradford has been a winner, and puts up excellent stats... but he is a gamble currently given his injury situation.

Agreed, Bradford is a maybe until he shows that arm. Clausen at 4 would be Epic Fail.

3) Saying "Sanchez" took the team to the playoffs is not telling the whole truth.. lol. I think Dan Snyder could have quarterbacked that team to the playoffs. Sanchez did not play well... but it's understandable because he's a rookie.

You gotta admit, it will be interesting to see balls bouncing off of Braylon's helmet this weekend :laugh:

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