Football Outsiders: Quick Reads (about JC)

[THE HAMMER'IN HOG]

The Saints dropped some easy picks in that game that I have no idea what JC was looking at, but they were dropped and no harm done, I will say this, we had guys wide open all over the field in that game, shockingly.

Bottom line JC could have won the game on the last drive and blew it as usual, and the plays were there to be made just like they were all game, the Saints didn't all of a sudden start covering people, JC's best game of his life ended up no different than any other game he plays in, a chance to win late and he blows it, not much has changed.

[SoCalSkins]

SoCalSkins -- You are confusing the Lewin Forecast with the DYAR approach. They are two different animals.

IMO, the Lewin Forecast is a boatload of crap. The DYAR is a better measurement than the NFL QB rating -- which isn't saying that much.

They are both statistical products created and marketed by Football Outsiders.

They specifically state that "Football Outsiders has been touting Campbell since he came out of Auburn because of his Lewin Career Forecast, our metric..."

[TheItalianStallion]

the top 10 defense weve had every year is surely losing games for us.

They were horrible in 2006, and during the 0-4 run in 2007.

the top 10 running game weve had every year except now is clearly a problem.

Te only times where he's had a great running game was in 2006 and the first half of 2008. Not coincidentally, he played great in the first half of 2008, and threw 10 TDs in just 7 games in 2006.

our QB who posts mediocre stats in all systems, fails in crunch time, has a knack for turning the ball over just as much as he produces scores, who cant read a defense very well, who stares down receivers too often, who overthrows routes more often than not, and is in his 4th year as a starter clearly isnt the main problem.

With the omission of the "turning the ball over just as much as he produces scores" and sometimes "fails in crunch time," obsolete on all counts.

[Oldfan]

They are both statistical products created and marketed by Football Outsiders.

So what? They aren't manipulating the DYAR numbers.

Their commentary was biased against Campbell in pointing out that he was working against an injured Saints secondary but not commenting on the injuries which hit our offense.

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

I want Football Outsiders to revolutionize the way we discuss football. And every now and then, they hit something awesome. Their article showing that fumble recoveries are completely random is something that every football coach should read.

I'm just not sold on DYAR.

It seems like every year they have some insane anamoly in their stats. The Cardinals nearly broke their will last year, I think.

What I like about advanced baseball stats is that they often confirm what is obvious while bringing to light a few things that are noticeable, yet not obvious. Everyone always knew that getting on base was good. No one outside of Earl Weaver ever knew exactly how good it was until recently.

Football Outsiders has really not done that yet.

[Oldfan]

...I'm just not sold on DYAR.

They aren't sold on DYAR either. It's an evolving process.

[NewCliche21]

Whatever he has? Like it doesn't matter what he has?

The QB is the most important player on the field, but his performance is also the most dependent on the performances of his teammates and coaches.

I'm saying that he doesn't have much. Nobody at wide receiver, a worse line than we do, couldn't name his tight end, etc.

Could you imagine him on a GOOD team?

[Brandon Lloyd Christmas]

They were horrible in 2006, and during the 0-4 run in 2007.Te only times where he's had a great running game was in 2006 and the first half of 2008. Not coincidentally, he played great in the first half of 2008, and threw 10 TDs in just 7 games in 2006.With the omission of the "turning the ball over just as much as he produces scores" and sometimes "fails in crunch time," obsolete on all counts.

06 they sucked. campbell was pedestrian then anyways cause he was a rookie.

07 our defense was fine, youre citing a 4 game bad stretch where 2 games were played against insane offenses and the other two our offense was just dreadful? they played ok when collins went 4-0. youre way off about 2007.

the run game was fine in 07, we were 12th in yards and yards per game, with a very low YPC because gibbs relentlessly pounded portis. there were games where we'd just run all game long. gibbs running schemes usually produced very low YPC, look at the 80s.

he didnt play great in the beginning of 08, he just wasnt terrible. 8 TDs in the first 9 games is hardly impressive.

[NewCliche21]

06 they sucked. campbell was pedestrian then anyways cause he was a rookie.

07 our defense was fine, youre citing a 4 game bad stretch where 2 games were played against insane offenses and the other two our offense was just dreadful? they played ok when collins went 4-0. youre way off about 2007.

the run game was fine in 07, we were 12th in yards and yards per game, with a very low YPC because gibbs relentlessly pounded portis. there were games where we'd just run all game long. gibbs running schemes usually produced very low YPC, look at the 80s.

he didnt play great in the beginning of 08, he just wasnt terrible. 8 TDs in the first 9 games is hardly impressive.

Here we go again.

Can you two just link your posts from every other thread instead of rehashing them, again?

[Bat~man]

I think that people who blame Campbell don't give him enough credit, even with the pick. The pick didn't end the game. The Redskins had the ball in overtime and Sellers turned it over, not Campbell. That was completely out of Campbell's control.

The pick did end a drive, a drive the could have won the game and a drive that more than likely would have won that game. You absolutely do not make that throw...

The blame is MORE on the friggin kicker than anything but JC deserves to take a bit of negative for that pick, doesn't at all take away from the GREAT game he played tho, just shows he isn't quite ready to be a clutch QB.

[skinsfan07]

So whats JC's average for having a "Career Game" 1 out of every 16 games.

You know Eli Manning just had his first 300 yard passing game at home like 3 weeks ago?

Yet he's won a super bowl. Does that mean he's a better passer than JC?

[Rufus T Firefly]

They were horrible in 2006, and during the 0-4 run in 2007.

And we are currently 14th in scoring defense, dead last in takeaways.

They have given bad field position for the most part all year and they couldn't get off the field against lousy offensive teams to give the offense a chance to win the game against Carolina or Detroit. They gave up two scoring drives, totalling 11 minutes of posession in the 4th quarter to kill us in the opener. And the last 4 losses all feature big 4th Quarter TD drives against, 3 blowing leads, the other killing a comeback that had just cut a 21 point deficit to 7.

Given the offseason investments, yeah, the defense has performed brilliantly.

Te only times where he's had a great running game was in 2006 and the first half of 2008. Not coincidentally, he played great in the first half of 2008, and threw 10 TDs in just 7 games in 2006.

It's been in the ten worst rushing offenses two of the last 3 years. And, as you said, lousy in the second half of the other season.

[NewCliche21]

The pick did end a drive, a drive the could have won the game and a drive that more than likely would have won that game. You absolutely do not make that throw...

The blame is MORE on the friggin kicker than anything but JC deserves to take a bit of negative for that pick, doesn't at all take away from the GREAT game he played tho, just shows he isn't quite ready to be a clutch QB.

How is it more than likely going to end the game? There are ten other players that depends on, play after play. How is it more than likely going to end the game than the drive that was cut short by Sellers/a blown call?

Suisham makes it, we win. It was ALL on him. High snap, yeah, but it was planted and held perfectly with next to NO wind. This is all on Suisham.

[NewCliche21]

And we are currently 14th in scoring defense, dead last in takeaways.

They have given bad field position for the most part all year and they couldn't get off the field against lousy offensive teams to give the offense a chance to win the game against Carolina or Detroit. They gave up two scoring drives, totalling 11 minutes of posession in the 4th quarter to kill us in the opener. And the last 4 losses all feature big 4th Quarter TD drives against, 3 blowing leads, the other killing a comeback that had just cut a 21 point deficit to 7.

Given the offseason investments, yeah, the defense has performed brilliantly.

It's been in the ten worst rushing offenses two of the last 3 years. And, as you said, lousy in the second half of the other season.

We're 14th in scoring defense? We've scored on defense????

[ncr2h]

i just want a guy like aaron rodgers, who was drafted one slot ahead of campbell. he has a mediocre running game, a below average offensive line, and two good receivers, and some random tight ends, in the same offense we run and hes an outstanding QB.

a 25+ TD guy that doesnt throw lots of picks, who has pin point accuracy, that can read a defense and make perfect throws. a guy where a 300 yard or 3 TD game is not uncommon. that kind of performance should be expected. hes thrown for 3 TDs 4 times this season and gone over 300 4 times this season.

im not asking for manning, brees, brady, marino, montana, young, etc.

rodgers will do just fine.

You know, I haven't looked at the actual stats, but a quick glance at footballoutsiders shows GB has the #7 rushing offense and the #10 passing offense. Hardly mediocre. Washington's rushing attack? #29.

I'm not trying to be an apologist, but if you think there's a good chance that this FO can bring in a rookie QB that puts up a performance next season like Campbell did last week, we're just going to have to agree to disagree.

[Rufus T Firefly]

We're 14th in scoring defense? We've scored on defense????

Scoring defense as in scoring against. I assume you're trying to poke fun at my wording, but I believe "scoring defense" is a legit term for what I was describing.

[SoCalSkins]

They were horrible in 2006, and during the 0-4 run in 2007.Te only times where he's had a great running game was in 2006 and the first half of 2008. Not coincidentally, he played great in the first half of 2008, and threw 10 TDs in just 7 games in 2006.With the omission of the "turning the ball over just as much as he produces scores" and sometimes "fails in crunch time," obsolete on all counts.

In games he has played a half or more:

He was 2-5 in 2006. He was 5-7 in 2007, including 1-5 to end his season.

He was 7-13 (35.0%) in his first 20 NFL starts, he is 5-15 (25%) in his last 20 NFL starts.

18-29 (38.30%) overall in his career.

6-20 (23.08%) in games played after November 1st.

2 out of 47 (4.25%) games in which Skins scored more than 30 points.

Other Skins QBs since he has been on the team in games JC has played a half or less:

17-12 (58.62%) overall record.

11-4 (73.33%) in games played after November 1st.

8 for 29 (27.59%) scoring more than 30 in a game.

[KokoMike]

When Jason Campbell is horrible, he is average. When Jason Campbell is great, he is average.

Let's put the argument to rest. He is average.

The only real question is whether the Skins want to hang their hat for the future on a proven average quarterback.

For my season ticket, memorabilia and beer monies worth, I know we can do better.

[NewCliche21]

Scoring defense as in scoring against. I assume you're trying to poke fun at my wording, but I believe "scoring defense" is a legit term for what I was describing.

No no no, wasn't trying to poke fun at anything.

I heard about the Saints' number one scoring defense all week and was under the impression that it meant they had the most defensive points (pick sixes/fumble recoveries for touchdowns/safeties).

I thought that we had scored on defense and I just plain missed it.

[Going Commando]

So whats JC's average for having a "Career Game" 1 out of every 16 games.

I think by definition, a "career game" happens only once in a career.

[Rufus T Firefly]

No no no, wasn't trying to poke fun at anything.

I heard about the Saints' number one scoring defense all week and was under the impression that it meant they had the most defensive points (pick sixes/fumble recoveries for touchdowns/safeties).

I thought that we had scored on defense and I just plain missed it.

Well, that's why I explained what I meant and said "assume". I was guessing it was tease, and not a request for clarification, but wasn't sure.

Now stop trying to make fun of me.

[Brandon Lloyd Christmas]

Here we go again.

Can you two just link your posts from every other thread instead of rehashing them, again?

is there a function to do that? lol

[NewCliche21]

Well, that's why I explained what I meant and said "assume". I was guessing it was tease, and not a request for clarification, but wasn't sure.

Now stop trying to make fun of me.

Your mom wants me to stop making fun of you.

is there a function to do that? lol

Haha, just link the threads or the individual posts. I'm sure that all of these arguments are copied and pasted on their computers, anyway.

[Passizle]

not all have failed.

brunell didnt fail in 05, and he was the only QB we had that had ever proved anything before that. green and johnson both did not fail here either.

guys like banks, campbell, ramsey, hasselbeck, weurful, matthews, etc - those guys are failures just because they are, not because of something else.

Yes BLC. They all failed. Brunell was not that great. Just OK. People seem forget the offensive woes we have had for a long itme just because we had a good rusher and WR for one year out of ten. One out of ten is not good.

Johnson was decent. Never should have let him walk. Still... regardless of the talent, the Skins failed at getting a franchise guy.

[Brandon Lloyd Christmas]

You know, I haven't looked at the actual stats, but a quick glance at footballoutsiders shows GB has the #7 rushing offense and the #10 passing offense. Hardly mediocre. Washington's rushing attack? #29.

I'm not trying to be an apologist, but if you think there's a good chance that this FO can bring in a rookie QB that puts up a performance next season like Campbell did last week, we're just going to have to agree to disagree.

theyre ranked 13th in the NFL in rushing. and aaron rodgers himself has almost 300 yards of their 1400 total.

they have the 8th passing offense, 4th in passing scores.