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The War Room - Analysis - 7/1/2003


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Exclusive Analysis

by The War Room

Predicting how each NFL team will finish this season

July 1, 2003

Training camp is less than a month away, and anticipation already is mounting. All 32 teams are without a loss and are in playoff contention. Although our friend and colleague Dan Pompei recently wrote his predictions for the 2003 season in TSN's Pro Football Yearbook, our War Room staff thought we would take our shot at forecasting the season.

Check back in January to see how we did.

AFC EAST

1. Dolphins

2. Patriots

3. Bills

4. Jets

Outlook: Miami has improved an already excellent defense by adding linebacker Junior Seau, safety Sammy Knight and tackle Jeff Zgonina. New England added pass-rushing linebacker Rosevelt Colvin, but there are concerns about the running game. Buffalo has improved its defense, but Josh Reed must prove he's a capable No. 2 receiver. The Jets lost too many key players.

AFC NORTH

1. Steelers

2. Ravens

3. Browns

4. Bengals

Outlook: Pittsburgh's shaky pass defense should get a boost from safety Troy Polamalu, the team's first-round pick. Baltimore has concerns at quarterback, but its strong defense has gotten stronger. A possible quarterback controversy, suspect linebackers and a weakened secondary mean Cleveland won't return to the playoffs. Marvin Lewis has Cincinnati going in the right direction, but it will take time.

AFC SOUTH

1. Colts

2. Titans

3. Jaguars

4. Texans

Outlook: The Titans got worse, thanks to losing linebacker Randall Godfrey, defensive linemen John Thornton and Henry Ford and cornerbacks Donald Mitchell and Dainon Sidney. The Colts got younger and more athletic on defense and should be more consistent in coach Tony Dungy's Cover 2 scheme.

Depending on the health of quarterback Mark Brunell and running back Fred Taylor, the Jaguars could go 10-6 or 6-10. Few teams made more upgrades on defense. The Texans should be improved with the addition of rookie receiver Andre Johnson, who provides a vertical threat.

AFC WEST

1. Raiders

2. Chiefs

3. Broncos

4. Chargers

Outlook: Oakland is aging, but cornerbacks Phillip Buchanon and Charles Woodson are healthy. That means the Raiders can play more aggressive blitz schemes in front of their man coverage. Kansas City will be more athletic on defense, but can Priest Holmes stay healthy?

In Denver, Jake Plummer will have the supporting cast he never had in Arizona, but the defense is not up to par. The Chargers will be more explosive on offense with receiver David Boston, but their cornerbacks and linebackers are inexperienced.

NFC EAST

1. Eagles

2. Giants

3. Redskins

4. Cowboys

Outlook: The Eagles have taken a step backward because of special teams losses, but they still are the class of the division, thanks to their attacking man-to-man defense. The Giants have bridged much of the gap, though.

In Washington, coach Steve Spurrier got the upgrades he needed on offense. It always seems to take two seasons for Bill Parcells to turn around a franchise, and it doesn't look like that process will go faster in Dallas.

NFC NORTH

1. Packers

2. Vikings

3. Lions

4. Bears

Outlook: With Brett Favre, a maturing receiving unit and a healthy offensive line, the Pack again will lead the way. The Vikings, who addressed defensive needs, should build on last season's finish. The 1-2 punch of quarterback Joey Harrington and receiver Charles Rogers will make for a more balanced offense in Detroit.

The Bears are not very talented. Kordell Stewart is a marginal starting quarterback, their offensive line is decimated, their receivers are under-achievers, and they have one of the worst groups of cornerbacks in the NFL.

NFC SOUTH

1. Falcons

2. Buccaneers

3. Saints

4. Panthers

Outlook: With Peerless Price at receiver, the Falcons can spread defenses vertically, making quarterback Michael Vick even more dangerous. The Falcons will take the regular season, but the Bucs will surge heading into the playoffs.

The Saints upgraded at left tackle (Wayne Gandy), tight end (Ernie Conwell), defensive tackle (Johnathan Sullivan), free safety (Tebucky Jones) and cornerback (Ashley Ambrose), but until quarterback Aaron Brooks proves his shoulder is healthy, they are an enigma. The Panthers' defense could be stifling, but quarterback Jake Delhomme needs time.

NFC WEST

1. Rams

2. Seahawks

3. 49ers

4. Cardinals

Outlook: With bookend tackles Orlando Pace and Kyle Turley, quarterback Kurt Warner and the Rams' offense are poised for a comeback. Under new defensive coordinator Ray Rhodes, the Seahawks will be more aggressive. San Francisco doesn't have enough weapons to take double-teams away from receiver Terrell Owens. The Cardinals have no weapons at receiver and an offense built around aging running back Emmitt Smith.

PLAYOFFS

AFC wild cards: Kansas City and New England.

NFC wild cards: Tampa Bay and Seattle.

AFC championship: Oakland over New England.

NFC championship: Tampa Bay over St. Louis.

Super Bowl: Oakland over Tampa Bay.

The War Room, a team of football scouts headed by Gary Horton, analyzes NFL and college players, coaches and teams exclusively for Sporting News.

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I'm still waiting for someone to explain to me why everyone is so high on Seattle. This isn't the first prediction where I've seen Seattle at #2.

I know they have a decent squad and all but I just don't know about that......

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we have had a lot of back-and-forth about SEA...

basically:

their offense showed dramatic improvement over the course of last year, namely hasselback. they have a game-breaking RB in shaun alexander, and two quality WR's in jackson and robinson... when jones is in they have a decent OL....

they have some peices on defense... good LB's, shawn springs (when healthy is great), just added a stud prospect in Trufant..., biggest addition, Ray Rhodes...

it should be a very exciting year in SEA...

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Exactly what is the fascination with the Giants?! They have shown nothing over the past few years (IMO) that would make them a threat to the division. If anything, the Giants receive a boost ONLY from the fact that the Eagles appear to have weakened this offseason. I'll give them that.

The Skins, on the other hand, weren't any worse than the Giants last year, but have apparently improved in key areas during the offseason. Sorry, I just don't see the rationale here. I would have the Skins finishing behind the Eagles, if not winning the division. The Giants could be close, but I just don't see much to like about their team.....

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Originally posted by OrangeSkin

Seattle of '03 = Dallas of '02.

Lots of upgrades, but no improvement.

NO Improvements? The Biggest was snaging Ray Rhodes having him alone is worth at least 2 more Victories. If thier Defense didn't suck so bad they would of been a Playoff team. Plus Hasselback and Koren finaly showed up. They are starting to mold for Triplets. Trumipant could be shutdown corner. Plus Emmit Smith in 02' is nothing to Alexandar in 03'. This guys rusehed for 6 td's in the first half. Yeah it was against MINN, but still..

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Superbowl - Philadelphia vs NY Jets

In as much as it sounds homerish, both are capable, solid teams that stick like glue. The problem for the Jets is keeping the continuity that got them in the playoffs deeper than a while. Off the field incidents can be costly as well as a loss in key FA's. The exhaustive process for some teams, doesn't seem to faze the Jets as much, or so it seems.

No matter, The NY Jets aren't a lock, but they deserve more than a passive fuss to be back in the deep part of the playoffs. Their chances are better than Oakland, stronger than Denver, more logical than Miami and Indianapolis.

The Eagles are close to being all that Tampa Bay was last year. If the offense stays as healthy as the defense did last year, they stand a grand chance to repeat in striking it rich in the playoffs.

McNabb isn't THE only weapon on offense now. I believe Duece Staley has arrived and his maturity is surely going to show in his game. His enthusiasm is stil red hot and the best to way to silence him, is to lay him down, before he gets a first one. The Eagles haven't done the job at WR that the Skins did, but if they occupy at least 2/3rds of an opponent's backfield, McNabb will find a way to win.

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glorydays... you've got to be joking about the Jets, right?.... I don't think their problem will be keeping the continuity, but the PLAYERS!

my preseason money is on the Steelers (i don't think they go worse than 11-5)... other AFC: DEN should be one to worry about... and MIA (if they can win Dec. 7 and 21)

i like them (PIT) over... who the hell comes out of the NFC???

PHI is always a contender, but i think their d will be a bit more weaker this season...

GB, maybe if they had a better group of WR's and a solid OL...

I think the NFC rep comes out of the South, between TB, NO, and ATL...

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Originally posted by glorydays

No matter, The NY Jets aren't a lock, but they deserve more than a passive fuss to be back in the deep part of the playoffs. Their chances are better than Oakland, stronger than Denver, more logical than Miami and Indianapolis.

The Jets will be last in thier divison.

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Originally posted by Muskrat

Exactly what is the fascination with the Giants?! They have shown nothing over the past few years (IMO) that would make them a threat to the division. If anything, the Giants receive a boost ONLY from the fact that the Eagles appear to have weakened this offseason. I'll give them that.

The Skins, on the other hand, weren't any worse than the Giants last year, but have apparently improved in key areas during the offseason. Sorry, I just don't see the rationale here. I would have the Skins finishing behind the Eagles, if not winning the division. The Giants could be close, but I just don't see much to like about their team.....

Blind homerism at it's finest.

actually, the skins were worse than the giants last year, a lot worse. that's why they lost BOTH games to them!

until the last three games of the season, the skins had no qb. collins has started every game for the giants for the past three seasons, maybe four. to me, that's a better football team just because of that.

They had a defense that could generate pressure and the players knew their assignments. the skins of 02 couldn't generate a great deal of pressure without bringing lavar and most of the players did not know their assignments on a consistent basis till about week 8. advantage giants.

they had a special teams unit that could get good field position, didn't fumble away one in every four punts and could make field goals when they should. advantage giants.

they also had the offensive rookie of the year, a pass catching tight end who lit people up all year, including the skins, and was a major threat in the middle of the field. don't remember the skins having anyone like that. advantage giants again.

to say the giants have shown nothing to make them a threat to the division is just stupid. they were a blown call away from advancing in the playoffs, and showed constant improvement all year. Also, they didn't have any significant losses and have upgraded their special teams. to me, that's a team that should threaten for the division, especially when last year's winner did nothing to improve itself.

don't get me wrong, i think the skins were slighted a little bit in that piece, but so what, they've made upgrades before and haven't done anything and until this team can prove that it can stop underachieving and play up to its potential and win some frickin games, the skins really don't deserve any respect. snyder fell on his face in 2000, and why should the critics think this year will be different?

Sometimes i just get tired of everyone moaning because the skins get no love, when in actuality they deserve none because they have yet to prove they know how to win.

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We lost to the Giants twice last year by a total of 8 points. Both games were games that should have been won by Washington.

(1st game - 2 missed FGs = lose by 2.

2nd game - Weuffel plays too long, 4 fumbles = lose by 6)

collins has started every game for the giants for the past three seasons, maybe four. to me, that's a better football team just because of that.

hmmm.....

You said "team".

I didn't know Collins played every single position. He's the best player that ever walked to face of the earth then!!

Defense:

Redskins - 5th

Giants - 9th

they had a special teams unit that could get good field position, didn't fumble away one in every four punts and could make field goals when they should.

So you're telling me we signed Morton and Hall for nothing!!

Great! Just Great!

they also had the offensive rookie of the year, a pass catching tight end who lit people up all year, including the skins, and was a major threat in the middle of the field. don't remember the skins having anyone like that.

Shockey is their #2 WR. He just starts at the TE position.

Toomer - 82 catches 1343 yards 11 TD

Shockey - 74 catches 894 yards 3 TD

Coles - 89 catches 1264 yards 5 TD

Gardner - 71 catches 1006 yards 8 TD

(I know Coles wasn't on our team, but stilll...) not much difference.

Are the Skins better than the Giants? Not until they prove it. But...

Are the Skins much worse than the Giants? Not at all.

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Originally posted by Skins24

Are the Skins much worse than the Giants? Not at all.

I was arguing Muskrat's statement that the skins weren't any worse than the giants last year. the argument had nothing to do with who is on the team this year.

the fact that the skins missed those field goals, had all those fumbles and had a BAD, weak armed qb in for the better part of three quarters makes them a worse team than the giants.

forget all the woulda, coulda, shoulda's the fact is good teams don't miss field goals and fumble. the skins have been plagued by those for the past few years and in my mind that makes them a worse team than the giants until they stop doing those things.

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The Giants were 10-6 and the Redskins were 7-9. The Giants swept the Redskins.

You can argue "if we made this FG and if the Giants lost that game" all you want, but the Giants have proven that they will win the games they should win, while the Redskins, since Gibbs, have proven they often don't.

Until we change and consistantly beat the bad teams and win the close ones like Giants do, they are the better team.

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I can see the points of the opinions with you guys on the Jets. I will be fair on that. I will also be fair on the Jets, it's coaches, it's organization and the fact the team has a 3 up (3 years together, some 2). It counts for something other than a mediocre year, and it won't be the same punch on offense, but somehow, you guys just Dissed Edwards coaching abilities. I suppose many did the same to Dungy. In any event, seeing is believing.

I guess you guys got it right with NE the year before huh?

OOPS!!! Josh Evans article is enough to convince me that I can take the Jets off my Superbowl list. There's more to this FO turmoil than meets the eye.

Ok, I get to eat crow this time. :laugh:

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