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Second Year Head Coaches- Something to Ponder.


Gibbs Hog Heaven

Which Trophy is the best?  

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  1. 1. Which Trophy is the best?

    • Stanley Cup (NHL)
    • O'brien Trophy (NBA)
    • Lombardi Trophy (NFL)
    • World Series Trophy (MLB)
    • UEFA Champions League Trophy
    • NCAA BCS Championship
    • NCAA Mens Basketball
    • World Cup Trophy
    • US Open
    • Other (post pic)


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This thread come's from a throw-a-way comment in another thread from ttr77 that got me thinking, and brings interesting stats away from the commonly held belief that a lot of poster's sold on the current QB throw up in his defense about it being "year two in Zorn's system, and thing's can and will only get better."

So, I thought I'd take a look at the Coach rather than the QB, as he's been debated all ways to death, and see how the "year two" theory stand's up.

For the purpose of this, I've taken this decade as a time line, Season's 2000-2007; and looked at all the HC's, rookies or veterans, who were new coaches at the start of a year, and lasted at least 2.

Of those 8 season's, there are 48 HC's that meet that criteria, 29 of which are rookie pro HC's.

Of that 48, less than half had winning season's in year two, of which 16 were winning records, 8 records of .500. (The rookie HC's were 10 W/ 5 @ .500.).

More than half, (25), out of the 48 had the same or worse records in their second year, 14 of whom were in their first jobs.

And less than a third actually made the playoff's in year two, 15, 10 of whom were in their first jobs. This incidentally does lend weight to the optimists amongst us for Coach Zorn to have a break out year, as 5 rookie HC's went to the SB in year two, (Belichick, Fox, Martz, Tomlin and Wisenhunt), with Belichick and Tomlin winning it all. The Packer's Mike McCarthy also got to the Conference Championship game his second year in the job. *Edit* Scrap Belichick from the above, he wasn't a rookie HC in New England- Thank's to the sharp eye of TomE. :cheers:

I guess you can take those figures any way you want, but this common held notion that things are automatically gona' get better in year two of the Z-Man's regime isn't necessarily so given the history of other recent new HC's.

Whilst I hope for our sakes it does, it certainly is something else to ponder.

Hail.

*I'll post the year one and two records of those 48 HC's if it helps anyone.

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,..... 5 rookie HC's went to the SB in year two, (Belichick, Fox, Martz, Tomlin and Wisenhunt), with Belichick and Tomlin winning it all.

Belichick's Browns won a SB?

Edit, I missed the "last decade" part but I do not consider Belichick as a rookie HC when he took over the Pat's job.

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2nd year in New England, not as a rookie HC.

Hail.

No problems, just had a bit of trouble following your premise. Figured that "new" to the team was what you had in mind.

Let's hope Zorn catches that lightening in the bottle for a few years.

Hail backatcha!

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Didn't Gibbs win it all in year 2?

If your going further back, he certainly did Sir, in the strike shortened '82 season. One major difference between then and now: both first season's were 8-8 records, but back in '81, we finished up the year 8-3, and had all the momentum going forward; as opposed to last year's second half collapse.

But as there are 48 HC's, new or otherwise, that have gotten at least two years in the 2000's alone, I left it at that snapshot.

Hail.

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Lousy teams fire their coaches more often, which tends to skew your stats a bit.

Surprisingly, out of those 48 that were a new HC at the start of a year this decade and had at last two years in the job, only 6 failed to get a third year or more.

2001.

Lions. Marty Mornhingweg. (R.). 2-14/3-13.

2002.

Raiders. Bill Callahan.(R.). 11-5, Lost SB/4-12.

Redskins. Steve Spurrier. (R.). 7-9/5-11.

2003.

49ers. Dennis Erickson. 7-9/2-14.

2004.

Bills. Mike Mularky.(R.). 9-7/5-11.

2007.

Raiders. Lane Kiffen. (R.). 4-12/1-3.

Hail.

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Surprisingly, out of those 48 that were a new HC at the start of a year this decade and had at last two years in the job, only 6 failed to get a third year or more.

That is rather surprising.

However, what I meant was that each new HC went to a team that had just deep-sixed its previous coach (with a very few exceptions for retirements), and that such teams are generally worse than average. So the relatively poor records for the new coaches becomes more reasonable.

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So, why was my comment you referred to a 'throw-a-way' :)

Ah, who am I kidding, most of them are. Anyway, I posted a lot of statistics about this in a thread back in January, but wasn't able to find it. So, nice research....thanks for taking over :)

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I don't know if this is blind homerism or not, but I would say that Zorn inherited a pretty talented team when he was hired, compared to many other rookie head coaches, i'd imagine. They were a playoff team the year before that and the only reason they needed a new coach was because Gibbs retired.

If it's not too much work, could you show me how many other rookie HC's have inherited a playoff team? Or a team with at least 10 wins, that didn't make the postseason?

Hail.

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If it's not too much work, could you show me how many other rookie HC's have inherited a playoff team? Or a team with at least 10 wins, that didn't make the postseason?

Hail.

Bear with me bud, I've just got back in the house.

I'll grab a drink and look at that for you out of interest over the period np.

Hail.

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I don't know if this is blind homerism or not, but I would say that Zorn inherited a pretty talented team when he was hired, compared to many other rookie head coaches, i'd imagine. They were a playoff team the year before that and the only reason they needed a new coach was because Gibbs retired.

If it's not too much work, could you show me how many other rookie HC's have inherited a playoff team? Or a team with at least 10 wins, that didn't make the postseason?

Hail.

yeah, thats interesting. I wonder what the stats are for coaches who take over teams after the old coach retired. I know some teams have fared well (Dallas in the 90s, SF in the 90s, Miami in the 90s, Pitt in the 2000s), and others have not (KC in the 2000s). It'd be interesting to see what this list looks like though.

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Can we really say that Mike Tomlin had a lot to do with his super bowl win? I mean he inherited a great team. He won with Cowher's team, just like Gruden did with Dungy's. I just have a hard time saying that Tomlin is a good coach. My own personal opinion.

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'K, in reference to Llandryistheshiz's query, of those 29 rookie pro HC's from the OP, 3 took over playoff teams from the previous year, and 7 took charge of ball club's who's record was .500 or better the previous year, but failed to make the playoff's.

The 3 HC's fortunate enough to step into a playoff gig were:

2000.

Cowboys. Dave Campo. 8-8, and a WC loss in '99.

His record was 5-11/5-11/5-11 before he was fired.

Rams. Mike Martz. 13-3, and SB Champions in '99.

His record was 10-6 LWC/14-2 DW,LSB/7-9/12-4 DW, LDP/8-8 WC,LDP/6-10 before he left due to ill health.

2002.

Raiders. Bill Callahan. 10-6, and a DP loss in '01.

His record was 11-5 WD, LSB/4-12 fired.

The 7 HC's who took over non-playoff teams, but team's with .500 or better records were:

2000.

Packers. Mike Sherman. 8-8 in '99.

His record was 9-7/12-4 WC, LDP/12-4 WD, LWC/10-6 WD, LDP/10-6 WD, LWC/ 4-12 before he was sacked.

2001.

Bills. Gregg Williams. 8-8 in '00.

His record was 3-13/8-8/6-10 Fired.

Lions. Marty Mornhingweg. 9-7 in '00.

His record was 2-14/2-13 Fired.

Jets. Herman Edwards. 9-7 in '00.

His record was 10-6 LWC/9-7 WD, LDP/6-10/10-6 WC, LDP/4-12 Left to take over Chiefs.

2002.

Redskins. Steve Spurrier. 8-8 in '01.

His record was 7-9/5-11 before he was canned.

2006.

Vikings. Brad Childress. 9-7 in '05.

His record to date is 6-10/8-8/10-6 WD, LWC.

2007.

Steelers. Mike Tomlin. Steelers. 8-8 in '06.

His record to date is 10-6 WD, LWC/12-4 WD, WSB.

So Zorn joins a very select few lucky enough to take over either a playoff or .500 or better teams, with mixed results. I don't know if that say's we should expect more or not from him given the perceived talent at his disposal, (he was after all just looking to take the next step up to coordinator in his career when he came here), but it adds to the OP. Make of it what you will.

Hail.

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2002.

Redskins. Steve Spurrier. 8-8 in '01.

His record was 7-9/5-11 before he was canned.

Hate to say it...but the only coach on this list that took over a .500 or better team and won exactly one less game the following season was Spurrier. I hope Zorn's second year is better.

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So, why was my comment you referred to a 'throw-a-way' :)

Ah, who am I kidding, most of them are. Anyway, I posted a lot of statistics about this in a thread back in January, but wasn't able to find it. So, nice research....thanks for taking over :)

I must of missed that at the turn of the year bud, sorry.

But meh, you lead, others follow. Seams apt from a poster I always enjoy reading. :cheers:

Hail.

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GHH - great thread!

You're providing thought-provoking information that will certainly help us fill that offseason void...

I'm slightly confused about some of the abbreviations, especially in your post about inheriting playoff or .500 or better teams - I get SB, but the others not so much. I'm assuming they're different steps of the playoffs, but just not sure which ones are which. Could you point me in the right direction?

Also, just wondering where you dug up the data - often when I have an idea that I'd like to check out I have trouble locating good NFL data that can be sliced and diced.

Thanks!

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GHH - great thread!

You're providing thought-provoking information that will certainly help us fill that offseason void...

I'm slightly confused about some of the abbreviations, especially in your post about inheriting playoff or .500 or better teams - I get SB, but the others not so much. I'm assuming they're different steps of the playoffs, but just not sure which ones are which. Could you point me in the right direction?

Also, just wondering where you dug up the data - often when I have an idea that I'd like to check out I have trouble locating good NFL data that can be sliced and diced.

Thanks!

Yw man. Like I said, just something ttr77 had said the other day along these lines in a previous thread that got me thinking.

You assume right about different steps in the playoff's etc. Uhmm, let's see: D=Division/WC=Wild Card,Wild Card Playoff/DP=Divisional Playoff, I think that was all from that post, all prefaced with a W or L for win or loss. So 12-4 WD, LWC would be the regular season record, then won division, lost wild card playoff game.

Oh, and I used wikipedia and flicked between the season's on this one, double checking with the league site.

Hail.

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If your going further back, he certainly did Sir, in the strike shortened '82 season. One major difference between then and now: both first season's were 8-8 records, but back in '81, we finished up the year 8-3, and had all the momentum going forward; as opposed to last year's second half collapse.

Didn't someone once do a thread showing stats that debunked the whole "momentum going into next year" theory? lol...I think they showed teams that had a winning record in the last 5 or 6 games, and then showed that same team's record the next year, and it was something like more than half had the same record or worse...or something lol...obviously my memory is failing me right now. :mad:

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