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NFL.COM: Don't believe the hype ... it could just be a smokescreen

TheLongshot

By TheLongshot
in The Stadium

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TheLongshot

TheLongshot

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Not directly Redskins related, but some good things to keep in mind when you hear rumors...

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story?id=09000d5d80fe0897&template=with-video-with-comments&confirm=true

Click on the link for the whole story

With the draft just days away, teams now covet a certain player or two in the first round -- and they must protect their interests in any way they can. Scouts and assistant coaches are often removed from the process so as not to leak the intentions of the club. The real draft board is headed for lock and key, and only the GM and head coach will share its contents with the owner. Then again, sometimes club employees leak false information to send other teams down the wrong path. All is far in love and war. Smart teams know how to posture and create a good smoke screen. It starts with the top team on the board, and this year that's the Detroit Lions.

When I was with the New York Jets, we postured in a few directions when we had the No. 1 pick in the 1996 draft. We wanted the agents representing the top picks to believe we were going to do a pre-draft deal and that it would be a determining factor. The Lions are doing the same thing with the agents representing the top candidates, but in the end they will get their bluff called -- like we did -- and it may really come down to drafting the player they want rather than the most signable prospect.

At the same time, the Lions have to appear to be trying to sell the top pick to move down. This may or may not be a smoke screen. It's getting tougher to trade down from the top five picks, especially if teams are looking for the kind of compensation other teams got years ago.

In 1993, we had a top-five pick in the first round and wanted to draft Florida State linebacker Marvin Jones. It got out on the street that we were seriously considering Georgia running back Garrison Hearst. The night before the draft, we got a call from the Cardinals saying that they would like to switch spots in the first round. They were only one pick behind us, but they wanted Hearst and so they didn't want us taking him -- or selling the spot to a team below them. We wound up acquiring running back Johnny Johnson from the Cardinals for trading spots, and we had the media to thank for establishing the illusion that we were thinking about Hearst or moving down.

This year, the quarterbacks will cause some maneuvering in the first round. What if the Lions pass on Matthew Stafford? That could make the No. 2 spot (St. Louis) or No. 3 spot (Kansas City) more valuable. It also creates added pressure on other aspects of the first round when it comes to where Mark Sanchez or Josh Freeman may go. Mark my words, in the days leading up to this draft, we will hear that some teams like Sanchez more than Stafford, while still others like Freeman more than either of them. I have talked with a very credible quarterback evaluator who later this week will say that Sanchez is the best prospect, and I know a few clubs listen to his opinion.

Player news in the days leading up to the draft about failed drug tests or a newly discovered injury will also be big factors in the posturing business. Two weeks ago, it was rumored that a number of players failed a drug test; this week a few players will be confirmed. I remember going to Warren Sapp's hotel room the night before the 1995 draft to discuss what might happen once the news was out there that he may have failed a drug test. We had two first-round picks that year and I knew we would not take Sapp. I suggested that he get on a plane and go home and not subject himself to the embarrassment of having cameras on him with every pick. I respected Sapp for his decision to stay in New York and deal with the rumors flying around. Of course, he fell to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at No. 12 and had a great career.

How far will Percy Harvin fall this year? A team or two that never thought they had a chance to draft Harvin don't mind the rumors flying around, if it means he falls to them.

Also in the '95 draft, we took tight end Kyle Brady in the first round. A team drafting right below us swore they weren't interested in him with their pick, but a young kid in the Penn State equipment room let our people know that this same club had called the day before the draft for his shoe size, helmet size and shoulder-pad preference. We felt like that information was solid and so we didn't move down in hopes of getting Brady lower in the draft, even though there were offers to do so.

Here are some other things teams do when they want to get a false story out there:

1. Don't visit the guy you really want, visit a few players you have little interest in and send people speculating about your plans.

A number of players have told me they had a visit cancelled. Freeman told me his visit to the Jets was cancelled because they had all the information they needed on him. Does that mean they have lost interest in him or that they don't want to draw attention to him?

2. Get a solid young veteran extended a day or two before the draft to end any interest in a player from the same position.

One year we extended running back Adrian Murrell about an hour before the draft when everyone believed we would be taking a running back at the top of the second round. Once we got Murrell signed to a four-year extension, our interest in another back went away. We were serious about taking a back and we let it be known in the media (which may have convinced Murrell to lock down a deal).

3. Have the head coach go to a pro day or have a late private workout with a candidate.

This kind of news spreads like wildfire, and the natural conclusion is that there's real interest. The Broncos are hosting Sanchez this week, and now the speculation is that the Broncos are going to take him. They might fall in love with the USC quarterback, but they might just be gathering information about Sanchez for a future date or maybe they really like Freeman.

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SnyderMustGo

SnyderMustGo

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There's a difference between using a smokescreen when you are the number 1 pick and trying to convince one of the guys to sign predraft and what we are doing.

We have made it clear that we do not want JC. We won't resign him. We tried to trade for Cutler. We brought Leftwich in for a visit. We brought Sanchez in for a personal visit.

Of course we are interested in Sanchez. It's obvious the team does not want JC.

It absolutely makes NO SENSE WHATSOEVER for us to fake interest in Sanchez. What would be the point? He almost certainly will be gone before we pick. So what possible bargaining help would be accomplished by showing interest in a guy that will be long gone before we draft? It makes no sense.

What is happening is that some of our fans don't want to get Sanchez, so they are hoping that this is all a smokescreen. There is a name for this. It's called "WISHFUL THINKING." The hope is that if they say it enough, it will be true.

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TheLongshot

TheLongshot

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There's a difference between using a smokescreen when you are the number 1 pick and trying to convince one of the guys to sign predraft and what we are doing.

We have made it clear that we do not want JC. We won't resign him. We tried to trade for Cutler. We brought Leftwich in for a visit. We brought Sanchez in for a personal visit.

Of course we are interested in Sanchez. It's obvious the team does not want JC.

It absolutely makes NO SENSE WHATSOEVER for us to fake interest in Sanchez. What would be the point? He almost certainly will be gone before we pick. So what possible bargaining help would be accomplished by showing interest in a guy that will be long gone before we draft? It makes no sense.

What is happening is that some of our fans don't want to get Sanchez, so they are hoping that this is all a smokescreen. There is a name for this. It's called "WISHFUL THINKING." The hope is that if they say it enough, it will be true.

First, there is no guarantee that he won't drop, as unlikely as that sounds, and two, maybe they have interest in another player to trade up for, like an OT maybe. Maybe they want someone else to trade up to get Sanchez so that someone else that we want will drop to us.

Just as a note, if we "obviously" didn't want JC, wouldn't we be looking at more than one QB in the draft? Wouldn't we be looking at Freeman as well? Personally, I think the interest is real, but I don't think the degree of interest is accurate and in fact has been blown out of proportion. It could just be as innocent as he's a guy who potentially could be there when we draft who can help this team.

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acuratl1984

acuratl1984

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I personally think the point of this "smokescreen" is to cause Sanchez's stock to sky rocket. And cause another team to trade into the top 5 for Sanchez.

I see STL or KC being the most likely candidates. With these 2 out of the top 13 Orakpo will most likely be there at 13.

I can see the 2009 NFL Draft Top 13 looking like this

1) Lions - QB Stafford

2) Rams - LB Curry (I dont think the Rams would pass up on Curry)

3) ????? - Sanchez (a team will make the trade to land Sanchez at #3, hopefully not the skins)

4) Seahawks - OT Jason Smith

5) Browns - WR Crabtree (since Sanchez has been drafted)

6) Bengals - Eugene Monroe

7) Oakland - D. Heyward Bey (4.3 40 time enough said)

8) Jacksonville - DT BJ Raji

9) GB - Aaron Maybin

10) SF - OT - Michael Oher

11) Buffalo - Andre Smith

12) Denver - Tyson Jackson

13) Washington - Brian Orakpo

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IbleedBnG83

IbleedBnG83

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I can't make sense of anything these days. People keep saying the front office is smart enough to pull something off like this. I don't know why. Snyder and Vinny are not stupid. They may not be able to run a football team, but this is business, and thats what they do.

I would not be in the least bit surprise, but I also think Snyder may have a genuine man-crush on Sanchez.

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hitmandm

hitmandm

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I dont think it is a smokescreen. First, Sanchez is not going to fall to 13, so whatever player will get displaced anyway. Plus, if it is a smokescreen and this guy falls to us, you want teams to trade with us and not try and move ahead of us to get him.

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DieselPwr44

DieselPwr44

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I posted this here because of all the rumors and speculation that surrounds the draft and our place in the middle of it.

Pat Kirwan provides some insight from a Front Office perspective....

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story?id=09000d5d80fe0897&template=with-video-with-comments&confirm=true

This year, the quarterbacks will cause some maneuvering in the first round. What if the Lions pass on Matthew Stafford? That could make the No. 2 spot (St. Louis) or No. 3 spot (Kansas City) more valuable. It also creates added pressure on other aspects of the first round when it comes to where Mark Sanchez or Josh Freeman may go. Mark my words, in the days leading up to this draft, we will hear that some teams like Sanchez more than Stafford, while still others like Freeman more than either of them. I have talked with a very credible quarterback evaluator who later this week will say that Sanchez is the best prospect, and I know a few clubs listen to his opinion.
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ST is my boy

ST is my boy

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There's a difference between using a smokescreen when you are the number 1 pick and trying to convince one of the guys to sign predraft and what we are doing.

We have made it clear that we do not want JC. We won't resign him. We tried to trade for Cutler. We brought Leftwich in for a visit. We brought Sanchez in for a personal visit.

Of course we are interested in Sanchez. It's obvious the team does not want JC.

It absolutely makes NO SENSE WHATSOEVER for us to fake interest in Sanchez. What would be the point? He almost certainly will be gone before we pick. So what possible bargaining help would be accomplished by showing interest in a guy that will be long gone before we draft? It makes no sense.

What is happening is that some of our fans don't want to get Sanchez, so they are hoping that this is all a smokescreen. There is a name for this. It's called "WISHFUL THINKING." The hope is that if they say it enough, it will be true.

Brady Quinn was all but garunteed to go in the top 10......look what happened...

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skinsfan12

skinsfan12

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These shenanigans dovetail nicely into my theory that the Skins aren't interested in Sanchez at all. Rather, they're fueling the hype on certain prospects in hopes that the player they truly covet, Andre Smith, drops to 13. There will be no trade up scenario to reach for Sanchez. Mark my words.

If Sanchez and Freeman go in the top ten (Seahawks and Niners, respectively), then we get Andre. Look at how fast these two QBs have risen in such a short period of time. Shenanigans, I tells ya.

.

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TheLongshot

TheLongshot

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Just to add to the whole "smokescreen" thing, much was made about the fact that Sanchez had dinner with Snyder, Vinny and Zorn. Course, the thing missed in all of this is that this isn't unusual.

For example, a quote from Orakpo:

"The visit with Washington went really well," Orakpo said. "I got a chance to meet Mr. Snyder and [executive vice president] Vinny Cerrato and Coach Zorn and the rest of coaching staff. We had a nice dinner, and I know Mr. Snyder likes to take care of his players, and we had a nice dinner at a fancy restaurant, a good steak house, and it was a good chance for them to get to know you better and have a little fun.

So, why is the dinner with Sanchez big news? It makes you wonder...

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Hitman#21

Hitman#21

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Just to add to the whole "smokescreen" thing, much was made about the fact that Sanchez had dinner with Snyder, Vinny and Zorn. Course, the thing missed in all of this is that this isn't unusual.

For example, a quote from Orakpo:

So, why is the dinner with Sanchez big news? It makes you wonder...

because hes the 2nd to best QB in the draft, and hes prob gonna be gone by our pick.

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