USA Today: For QB-hungry teams, there are no quick solutions in draft pool

[bubba9497]

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/2009-04-15-sw-quarterbacks-cover_N.htm

Click link for entire article

For QB-hungry teams, there are no quick solutions in draft pool

By Tom Pedulla, USA TODAY

When NFL draft experts evaluate the top of the 2009 quarterback class, they find themselves turning into passers with happy feet.

They are intrigued by Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez and see in both an opportunity for an NFL franchise as inviting as a sure-handed receiver breaking loose on a fly pattern. But when they consider the high-risk, high-reward gamble both underclassmen represent, they can't help but dance a bit.

ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. raises all of the pertinent questions concerning Stafford and Sanchez. "How NFL-ready is he? How much time do we have to spend with him? Do we want to commit all these dollars?" Kiper wonders aloud. "They don't treat quarterbacks like they did in the 1980s, where you have three to four years to develop them. They want them to play right away.

"In Matthew Stafford's case, that's not realistic. In Mark Sanchez's case, it's not realistic."

NFL Network draft analyst Mike Mayock shares the same concerns.

"If you are going to get drafted as a top-10 quarterback, you'd better be ready to play. They have so much invested," he says. "Do you have the physical toughness and the emotional maturity to get the tar knocked out of you week in and week out? When you get thrown into the deep end, do you turn into Kyle Boller or David Carr?"

The Baltimore Ravens traded into the first round to acquire Boller in 2003, thinking he would end their lengthy search for a franchise quarterback. That didn't happen, however, until they chose Joe Flacco last year. The Houston Texans thought they would build their franchise around Carr after selecting him with the No. 1 overall pick of the 2002 draft. But Carr is no longer a member of the Texans, who continue to chase their first winning season.

Conversely, Flacco and Matt Ryan, taken third overall by the Atlanta Falcons as the first quarterback drafted in 2008, show how great an impact the right young passer can make. Both took over teams with losing records and transformed them into playoff clubs last season.

With the Detroit Lions holding the top pick of the draft after suffering the ignominy of becoming the first team in NFL history to go 0-16, no franchise has ever been in greater need of a savior than the Lions. Can Stafford, the highest-rated passer on virtually every board, provide Detroit with the same drastic makeover that Ryan and Flacco provided?

When cannon-armed Stafford enrolled at Georgia as a Parade All-American, Kiper declared that he would emerge as the first pick whenever he elected to turn pro. The analyst still thinks the 6-2, 225-pounder has all the tools required for big-time success. He worries about his readiness for prime time, though.

"There is no similarity with Ryan," he says bluntly, "because Ryan played his senior year.

"If Matthew Stafford played his senior year, there would be no concerns. I think he would have lit it up."

Stafford has dealt with enormous expectations since he threw for 4,018 yards and 38 touchdowns in leading Highland Park (Texas) High School to its first state championship in 48 years. Perhaps for that reason, his Georgia career was not totally satisfying to some observers.

He threw nearly twice as many interceptions (13) as TDs (seven) as a freshman but made significant strides with 19 scores to go with 10 pickoffs as a sophomore.

Although Stafford threw for 3,459 yards and 25 touchdowns with 10 interceptions in 2008, he and his teammates ultimately fell far short of their No. 1 ranking in the preseason.

If the analysis was based solely on arm strength, Stafford would be a no-brainer, even for a Lions organization notorious for draft-day blunders.

"I've seen (John) Elway in person, and I've seen (Dan) Marino in person," Georgia coach Mark Richt says, "and he rivals them in the way he throws the ball."

Kiper also finds the 21-year-old's arm strength to be compelling. "A lot of guys have good arms," he says. "But elite arms are rare, and this kid has it."

Mayock, who insisted Ryan was a can't-miss prospect and dared to compare him to Indianapolis Colts superstar Peyton Manning, is among those with concerns about Stafford's consistency and decision-making.

"The accuracy bothers me to a degree. There's not as much consistency to his game as there was with Matt Ryan," he says. "With Matt Ryan, everything was done the same way every time. With Stafford, the decision-making is not as consistent."

But Stafford himself finds inspiration in the examples set by Ryan and Flacco. "It definitely gives you confidence as a quarterback coming out in this class that you can make an impact early," he says.

He disputes the notion that he lacks experience and polish. "I played in 39 games in college. That's a lot of football games, probably more than some seniors have played in," he says. "I've been doing this for a while.

"Obviously, I have a lot to learn. It's a whole different ballgame in the NFL. But I understand what it takes to prepare and get ready to play early, and I do feel like I have a lot of experience."

Richt feels certain that Stafford will be able to adjust. "He's a highly intelligent guy, a very competitive guy," the coach says. "He understands what team is all about. He can handle pressure. He's got every tool you could want."

Richt emphasizes that those who evaluate Stafford must keep in mind that he was often asked to compensate for a young and untested offensive line. "I can't even imagine how much more productive he would have been with a more experienced line in front of him," he says.

Lack of experience has been a huge issue for Sanchez since he decided to leave Southern California after his junior season. Trojans coach Pete Carroll labeled the move a "bad choice" and made his displeasure clear during a chilly news conference.

"I think it's his competitive nature," Sanchez said of Carroll's very public reaction. "If you know coach, you know how competitive he is. And, to me, I took that as a sign of respect. A very good football coach wanted me back on that team. And I think his competitive juices were just kind of overflowing that day."

Carroll was much more supportive when Sanchez put a mediocre combine performance behind him with a solid pro day. The 6-2, 227-pound passer says their relationship "couldn't be better."

With a case to be made for the Jacksonville Jaguars (picking eighth), San Francisco 49ers (10th), Denver Broncos (12th) — who are now taking applications for a starter after dealing Jay Cutler, the formerly disgruntled face of their franchise, to the Chicago Bears this month — and Brett Favre-less New York Jets (17th) to draft a quarterback, it remains to be seen whether Sanchez's limited body of work (16 starts) will be a major factor.

Sanchez insists it should not be.

"I think the best way to answer that," he says, "is talk about the kind of experience I've had against the top players around, most of them (now) in the NFL, since my freshman year."

Prospective employers have to be encouraged by his results.

He's been a winner since he led Mission Viejo High School to the California state championship in 2004. He went 14-2 at USC and consistently made big plays in big games. In the final start of his career, he equaled the Rose Bowl record by completing 80% of his passes (28 for 35) for 413 yards and four touchdowns in pacing a 38-24 victory against Penn State.

The third-generation Mexican American played with such emotion that teammates nicknamed him "Mexican Jumping Bean." Most scouts view him as being more athletic than Stafford, more creative out of the pocket and a better decision-maker.

In assessing the trio of Stafford, Sanchez and Kansas State junior Josh Freeman, Mayock says of Sanchez, "Despite the fact that he's made 16 starts, I think he's the safest pick. When I look at Sanchez, I see a more consistent quarterback than either of them.

"With Stafford and Freeman, they could be all-pro, but will they ever get the consistency and accuracy?"

The 6-6, 250-pound Freeman possesses many of the ingredients for NFL success. But most evaluators see him as being a raw talent. "He's a really good athlete who can sling the football. He should have stayed in school," Monday Night Football analyst Ron Jaworski says. "I just think he needs more seasoning and work on his mechanics.

"I thought at times he was flat-footed and off-balance. He was very quick to move out of the pocket, and he missed open receivers. He has a lot of upside, but he's a bit of a project."

With long-term rebuilding plans a bygone luxury for downtrodden franchises, they are just hoping these quarterback projects project to NFL greatness sooner rather than later.

[Peregrine]

Very interesting article.

I would just like to take the time to point out, Joe Flacco is not actually a good QB. There, I said it. The Ravens had a turnaround year, but it was not because of the passing offense, it was because of a dominant defense and running game. At best he was average last year(though he ranked 22nd out of all starting QBs).