Oldfan Posted February 25, 2009 Share Posted February 25, 2009 This thread is not about the drafting history of the Redskins. This is about draft strategy in general. This is an argument, supported by a quick draft study, which opposes the idea that it is a good strategy to build the trenches first. I propose that it can't be done even if it was a good idea because the draft talent from year to year varies in quality overall and by position. This argument also supports the strategy of drafting the best player available. A team should not reach for a player they have graded at the B level to fill a need if it means passing up a grade A rated player to do it. We learn from experience by looking at the past with hindsight. With the benefit of hindsight, I have examined the first round selections from 1983 to 2002. I am assuming that later rounds over that time span would produce lesser player quality but the percentages at each position would remain about the same. In most years over that span, a perennial all-pro player or two was available in picks #13 to #32. If we were picking #13 every year in the 20 year period from 1983 to 2002, we might have taken an all-pro lineman 50% of the time. That's 10 linemen in 20 years. If the 2009 draft turns out like the 1983 draft, we will have to pass on three HOFers like Dan Marino, Jim Kelly and Darrel Green to draft a decent lineman at #13. Luck has a good deal to do with it. If 2009 compares to 1989, which began a 10-year stretch of lean draft years for linemen, building in the trenches first would be a disaster. If the next ten years are like those ten, we will garner four good linemen but pass up some perennial all-pro players who could have been had at #13, players like Steve A****er, Emmitt Smith, Dale Carter, Derrick Brooks, Ty Law, Ray Lewis, Marvin Harrision, Tony Gonzales and Randy Moss. Let's suppose that the 2009 draft shapes up like the 1997 draft. You can pick a lineman like Trevor Pryce or Reynaldo Wynn at #13 but you'd have to pass on a TE like Tony Gonzales. Sure we already have Fred Davis and Chris Cooley, but how can we pass on another Gonzales? In hindsight, we can't. Should the decision change because foresight never equals hindsight? It should not for an NFL team. You see, the only reason that fans can argue that teams should draft the trenches first or draft to fill needs is that they can't trust their player evaluations; and my position is that an NFL team has no choice but to trust their evaluations. It would be slightly stupid for them to draft on need a player they have given a B grade to and pass on a grade A guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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