NFC Playoff Picture through Week 11

[UofMSkinsFan]

Here are the playoff odds of the leading NFC teams based on Football Outsiders' analysis (explained here: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds.php). I've also included the records, weighted DVOA, remaining schedule and schedule difficulty for the bubble teams.

1. ARI (100%), 7-3

2. NYG (99.4%), 9-1

3. TB (85%), 7-3

4. CAR (83.8%), 8-2

5. GB (67.1%), 5-5 (23.5% DVOA): @NO CAR HOU @JAC @CHI DET (25th hardest)

6. ATL (42.1%), 6-4 (6.5% DVOA): CAR @SD @NO TB @MIN STL (19th hardest)

7. WAS (32.1%), 6-4 (8.0% DVOA): @SEA NYG @BAL @CIN PHI @SF (8th hardest)

8. PHI (29.2%), 5-4-1 (24.3% DVOA): @BAL ARI @NYG CLE @WAS DAL (3rd hardest)

9. CHI (25.4%), 5-5 (-0.3% DVOA): @STL @MIN JAC NO GB @HOU (26th hardest)

10. MIN (13.6%), 5-5 (-3.9% DVOA): @JAC CHI @DET @ARI ATL NYG (10th hardest)

11. DAL (13.3%), 6-4 (-9.5% DVOA): SF SEA @PIT NYG BAL @PHI (4th hardest)

DVOA says Philly is very good (24.3% DVOA) and Dallas isn't (-9.5%) which is presumably why Philly's playoff odds are much better than Dallas' despite having a slightly worse record. I don't buy it. In any case, it would be great to see Carolina beat Atlanta and Baltimore beat Philly this weekend. Unfortunately, it's tough to see SF beating Dallas.

[dfitzo53]

What is DVOA?

[zCommander]

What is DVOA?

DVOA is the acronym for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. The original Football Outsiders statistic, it was created by Aaron Schatz, and has since seen several updates. The statistic measures the success of a given play, then compares it to the league-average level of success for that play given the situation at the time (score, time remaining, down and distance to go, location on the field, caliber of opponent, and so on). The system is applied to every play of the season, to provide DVOA rankings both for individual players and teams as a whole.

In all cases, a DVOA rating of 0% is equivalent to league-average performance. Positive DVOA numbers represent above-average performance by the offense and below-average performance by the defense, while negative numbers represent the opposite.