bubba9497 Posted November 21, 2008 Share Posted November 21, 2008 http://cowboysblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2008/11/five-downs-with-football-outsiders-terre.html Click link for entire article Five Downs With Football Outsiders: Terrell Owens has been terrible Bill Barnwell, a contributing editor at footballoutsiders.com and one of the minds behind the must-read Pro Football Prospectus, will answer five Cowboys questions each week of the season using the FO data and methodologies. Here's the Week 12 edition: 1. Among receivers with at least 33 passes thrown their way, Terrell Owens ranks in the bottom five in Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement and bottom 10 in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. How does this compare to the rest of his career? Has there been another receiver in recent memory to have such a drastic drop-off? It's undoubtedly the worst performance of TO's career. Even as a young guy in the San Francisco offense, he was always showing loads of potential, he just (ironically) wasn't getting the ball enough. Now, he can give all the interviews to Deion Sanders about how stuff happens when he gets the ball that he wants, but it's not reality. His previous low in DVOA was -2.0% in 1999, which ranked 43rd in the league; he's at -23.1% this year, 71st among qualifiers. Among receivers of TO's caliber, it's hard to find a similar guy. Randy Moss in Oakland sorta qualifies, but he went to a totally different offensive scheme and started putting up poor numbers. The closest comparison I could find would be what happened to David Boston in 2001 and 2002, but Boston had injuries to blame. Owens is not only catching fewer of the passes thrown in his direction (49% catch rate, down from 56% last year), he's also gaining fewer yards per catch (12.6, down from 16.9). He's simply not getting the sort of separation he needs to get to be effective. Whether that's because he's being bumped at the line or because of age is impossible to separate. Short a major boost with Tony Romo sits to pee in the lineup, it's safe to project that Terrell Owens isn't a number one guy anymore. 2. How does the offensive line's performance in the key FO statistical categories compare in Kyle Kosier's two starts (wins over Green Bay and Washington) to the rest of the season? Marion Barber's DVOA in those two games was 1.5% and 17.6%, respectively. The latter was his third-best game of the year, after Week 1 and Week 7. I think the bigger concern with the running game -- and the performance of the offensive line as judged by it -- is actually the return of Romo sits to pee, not the loss of Kosier. Our research into injuries has shown us that injuries to the quarterback actually affect the performance of the running game more than injuries to the offensive line or, believe it or not, even the running back. Having Romo sits to pee back will have a much bigger impact on the running game and the sack rate than Kosier. 3. Where are the Cowboys most vulnerable against the run? Where do the 49ers run the ball best? The Cowboys are most vulnerable when teams run at the left side of their defense (right side of the offense). They rank 30th in the league in our Adjusted Line Yards statistic at runs to right tackle, and 29th at runs to right end. They're in the top-14 on runs to the other side. That's on Marcus Spears, shockingly enough. Anthony Spencer is also no great shakes in run support yet. Fortunately for the Cowboys, the 49ers are significantly better on the other side of the field. They're third in the league at runs to left end, and also third in the league at runs up the middle. 59% of their runs are up the middle (against a league average of 50%), so expect Jay Ratliff to have a big day. It's going to be essential for Bradie James and Zach Thomas to plug the gaps alongside Ratliff, and for Ware and Burnett to eliminate the angles for Frank Gore to cut back and bounce plays outside. 4. What would you project Tony Romo sits to pee's stats to be the rest of the season? In our book, we projected Romo sits to pee for a 61.8% completion percentage and an average of 7.1 yards per attempt. This year, he's completed 64.8% of the passes thrown to him and averaged 8.3 yards per attempt, exceeding our expectations in both regards. Some of that has been the issue of third-down luck, but Romo sits to pee's consistently been a tricky player for our system to figure out -- I really think it's because he's such a rare player and his skillset is so unique. Considering the difficulty of the defenses he's going to face and the likelihood that he's going to give back at least some of that third down performance, I'm going to say that over the last six games of the year, his line will be something like 127-of-205 for 1575 yards with nine touchdowns against six interceptions. That assumes he stays healthy. 5. How many Pro Bowlers do the Cowboys deserve to have at this point of the season? Well, first, I wouldn't consider this list to be a list of guys who are likely to make or not make the Pro Bowl. A lot of Pro Bowlers make their case in the final few games of the year, simply because that's the most recent performances that the electorate sees. Either way, here's some comments on who I think does and doesn't deserve to make it to Hawaii: - No to Tony Romo sits to pee. It's not that Romo sits to pee isn't valuable, but even if he plays six more games at his established level of play, how do you put him in ahead of Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Kurt Warner, or Eli Manning? He's a step behind them all. - Yes to Marion Barber. I know his stats are down, and I'm not one to often make this sort of argument, but you can't ignore the importance he had to that Cowboys offense without Romo sits to pee -- basically because he was the offense. - No to the wide receivers. Yes to Jason Witten, who deserves the throws that TO is whining about not getting. - Yes to Leonard Davis, although he's taken a step back from last year. No to everyone else. There are so many qualified linemen ahead of the Cowboys' group this year: Snee, O'Hara, Gross, Heitmann, Hutchinson, Kendall.... - Yes to Jay Ratliff, who's been the best defensive tackle in the NFC this year. Yes, better than the Williamses in Minnesota. - Yes to DeMarcus Ware, who continues to get sacks (and QB hits, and hurries) despite being the team's only real dominant pass rusher. No to everyone else, including Bradie James, who doesn't make it ahead of Patrick Willis, Jonathan Vilma, London Fletcher, or Brian Urlacher at middle linebacker. - No to anyone in the secondary or anyone on special teams. So, then: Barber, Witten, Davis, Ratliff, Ware. That's less than half of the 2007 group, but then again, this team's 6-4. Five Pro Bowlers are a lot for a 10-win team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sideshow24 Posted November 21, 2008 Share Posted November 21, 2008 In other news: We landed on the moon! Ha Ha. And NO to Barber. Importance to your team gets you in the pro bowl? Tell that to London Fletcher who has that AND the stats but gets overlooked all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhead36 Posted November 21, 2008 Share Posted November 21, 2008 Marion Barber isn't in the top 5 in the NFC in rushing yards, yards per game, yards per carry, or touchdowns. So of course he'll make the Pro Bowl! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinsfan07 Posted November 21, 2008 Share Posted November 21, 2008 Marion Barber isn't in the top 5 in the NFC in rushing yards, yards per game, yards per carry, or touchdowns.So of course he'll make the Pro Bowl! Yea he better not make it. Portis, AD and Turner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pjfootballer Posted November 21, 2008 Share Posted November 21, 2008 Romo sits to pee will get in on popularity alone. Brees, Warner and Romo sits to pee. That's what I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tr1 Posted November 21, 2008 Share Posted November 21, 2008 Marion Barber isn't in the top 5 in the NFC in rushing yards, yards per game, yards per carry, or touchdowns.So of course he'll make the Pro Bowl! Good gawd they have an incredible hype machine, eh? :rotflmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djackson10 Posted November 21, 2008 Share Posted November 21, 2008 Five Downs With Football Outsiders: Terrell Owens has been terrible 7:30 AM Fri, Nov 21, 2008 | Permalink | Yahoo! Buzz Tim MacMahon E-mail News tips Bill Barnwell, a contributing editor at footballoutsiders.com and one of the minds behind the must-read Pro Football Prospectus, will answer five Cowboys questions each week of the season using the FO data and methodologies. Here's the Week 12 edition: 1. Among receivers with at least 33 passes thrown their way, Terrell Owens ranks in the bottom five in Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement and bottom 10 in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. How does this compare to the rest of his career? Has there been another receiver in recent memory to have such a drastic drop-off? It's undoubtedly the worst performance of TO's career. Even as a young guy in the San Francisco offense, he was always showing loads of potential, he just (ironically) wasn't getting the ball enough. Now, he can give all the interviews to Deion Sanders about how stuff happens when he gets the ball that he wants, but it's not reality. His previous low in DVOA was -2.0% in 1999, which ranked 43rd in the league; he's at -23.1% this year, 71st among qualifiers. Among receivers of TO's caliber, it's hard to find a similar guy. Randy Moss in Oakland sorta qualifies, but he went to a totally different offensive scheme and started putting up poor numbers. The closest comparison I could find would be what happened to David Boston in 2001 and 2002, but Boston had injuries to blame. Owens is not only catching fewer of the passes thrown in his direction (49% catch rate, down from 56% last year), he's also gaining fewer yards per catch (12.6, down from 16.9). He's simply not getting the sort of separation he needs to get to be effective. Whether that's because he's being bumped at the line or because of age is impossible to separate. Short a major boost with Tony Romo sits to pee in the lineup, it's safe to project that Terrell Owens isn't a number one guy anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba9497 Posted November 21, 2008 Author Share Posted November 21, 2008 http://www.extremeskins.com/showthread.php?t=271654 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba9497 Posted November 21, 2008 Author Share Posted November 21, 2008 Good gawd they have an incredible hype machine, eh?:rotflmao: I still trying to figure out how the Pokes are back on the Super Bowl run, at 6-4... going 3-4 after a 3-0 start, but the Skins are going in the bucket at 6-4 after losing 2 straight..... but have an easier schedule down the stretch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westbrook36 Posted November 21, 2008 Share Posted November 21, 2008 Good gawd they have an incredible hype machine, eh?:rotflmao: Says the guy whose team has made a complete mockery of ProBowl voting this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santana_Fan Posted November 21, 2008 Share Posted November 21, 2008 Yea he better not make it.Portis, AD and Turner. That's definitely what it should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tr1 Posted November 22, 2008 Share Posted November 22, 2008 Says the guy whose team has made a complete mockery of ProBowl voting this year. Injuries are the only reason you feel this way. You know when they're healthy, they are the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba9497 Posted November 22, 2008 Author Share Posted November 22, 2008 Says the guy whose team has made a complete mockery of ProBowl voting this year Wait eagle fans can't vote? :secret: Cowboy fans have been rigging the vote for years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westbrook36 Posted November 22, 2008 Share Posted November 22, 2008 Wait eagle fans can't vote? :secret: Cowboy fans have been rigging the vote for years... So this makes it ok that many undeserving Redskins currently lead voting at their position solely due to a team led voting campaign? Seriously, this is what we all complain about every year regarding the Cowboys; but now that your team is benefitting, you just shrug your shoulders and think its ok? By think its ok, I really mean put a link in your signature and endorse it. Talk about being a hypocrit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDawg Posted November 22, 2008 Share Posted November 22, 2008 I think the whole Pro Bowl thing is a joke. I've never really cared about the Pro Bowl - it's nice to have guys repping the 'Skins, but really, it doesn't mean a thing - and this campaign is a bit... desperate. Hopefully this gets the voting process changed, but then again, be careful what we wish for. Our voices won't even be heard in the future. Kind of sad, actually. That said, it's nice to see our fans do want to band together for something. All these other teams whining about it could do the same thing, but they won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptr77 Posted November 22, 2008 Share Posted November 22, 2008 If it were possible i would want every eagle, redskins, and cowboy to go to the probowl, or at least fill every slot and alternate. All the probowl does is give the players a chance for an inflated salary imo. When I vote I vote for the most talented players in my opinion, so long as its not a giants player (I never vote for them). I would think some players have incentives related to the probowl, or at the very least let being voted in get to their heads. My team loves playing the underdog role, so i hope none make it to Hawaii. I personally have nothing against what the redskins fans are doing, they are helping us all out. They are exposing the voting system for the fraud it is. It will either be changed in the future or continue to be an accepted joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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