Week Two Picks, Pats, and Apologies

[kleese]

www.edkleese.blogspot.com

Last Week: 9-7

Season: 9-7

Record Picking Redskins Games: 1-0

Against the Spread: 2-2

Lock of the Week: 1-0

Last Week's Pats: A below average start to this season for sure, but I did call a few things correctly. Most notably, I nailed my lock of the week with the Panthers easily covering the spread in their win over San Diego. I also went agains the grain and picked the Falcons to beat the Lions.

Last Week's Apologies: Biggest apology by far goes out to the Steelers. I pegged the Texans in an upset, and I could not have been more wrong. Pittsburgh absolutely trounced Houston. They called off the dogs early in the 2nd halfm but make no mistake, this was a total beating. It's early, but I'm already starting to wonder if I didn't underestimate the Steelers this season. Also need to apologize to the Broncos, who I picked to lose in Oakland. Again, can't miss on a game much worse than that.

This Week's Picks:

Oakland at Kansas City: Before last week, I REALLY thought Oakland would be a better team than Kansas City. But after last week, that thought process is looking flawed to say the least. But I am going to be stubborn and go with my original gut feeling for one more week. There is no reason that Oakland's defense should be that bad.

Raiders 21, Chiefs 20

Green Bay at Detroit: Speaking of bad defenses.....the Lions are just, well, ugh. That's about as much analysis as I can provide for that bunch. I see them being fairly competitive at home, but I don't think they get enough stops to win the game.

Packers 27, Lions 21

Tennessee at Cincinnati: The putrid Bengals don't stand a chance against the steady Titans. I think Marvin Lewis may have already mentally "clocked out." The question is how long before Mike Brown realizes it?

Titans 26, Bengals 13

Chicago at Carolina: In my pre-season predictions, I picked the Panthers to play in the NFC Championship Game. After last week, I'm feeling pretty good about that prognostication. Having already upset the Colts on the road, this game has a very "bonus" feel for Chicago. Not a lot of pressure here for the Bears. Still, I like Carolina at home.

Panthers 20, Bears 16

Buffalo at Jacksonville: I think this is close to a must-win for the Jaguars if they harbor any serious thoughts about being a Super Bowl team. But I'm not sure that any team with those kinds of major issues along the offensive line is a serious threat to anyone. In addition to their line woes, I also still have my doubts about David Garrard. Buffalo, on the other hand, was very methodical in their win over Seattle. Here's a very shaky vote for the home team.

Jaguars 19, Bills 17

New Orleans at Washington: If everything you saw in Week Y translated to what you'd see in Week X, picking NFL games would be very, very easy. If that were the case, the Saints would be the simple pick here: They looked very solid and at times, explosive, beating the Bucs last week. On the flip side, we have the Redskins, who had a hard time getting out of their own way in New York. But in the NFL, everything you see is not always what you get. This is a 100% "gut feel" pick, based little on logic.

Redskins 23, Saints 20

Indianapolis at Minnesota: Did the Colts struggle because Peyton and crew were shaking the rust off, or are there deeper problems in Indy? My guess is the former, but I saw enough issues out there on Sunday Night that make me skeptical about pulling the trigger and predicting a tough road win the Colts. This one could go either way, but I favor the home team.

Vikings 24, Colts 21

New York Giants at St. Louis: The only real question in this game is whether or not the Rams will embarrass themselves again, or will they at least show up for awhile? The Giants could lay an egg and still win this one.

Giants 31, Rams 20

San Francisco at Seattle: I'm not sure people realize exactly how bad the Seahawks have it with their skill position players right now. Matt Hasselbeck, has few, if any options. And if the Seahawks normally stout defense gets pushed around all year like they did in Buffalo last week, Mike Holmgren will end his career on a very sour note. I'll give that defense a second chance and pick them to get a win for Seattle in a very, very ugly game.

Seahawks 17, 49ers 13

Atlanta at Tampa Bay: The Falcons were impressive last week, but I have a feeling Matt Ryan is really going to struggle in his first trip to Tampa.

Bucs 22, Falcons 10

Miami at Arizona: The Cardinals 2-0? Is this possible? With the Seahawks reeling and the Rams and 49ers looking pitiful, this may be the best shot Arizona has had in a long time to make a serious playoff push. Kurt Warner was the right choice for this team and he'll help his squad get the season off to a fast start.

Cardinals 27, Dolphins 20

New England at New York Jets: I sense some serious overcorrecting going on here. With Brady going down and Favre going up, most people have shifted their thought process on these two teams. But I'm not ready to write-off the Patriots quite yet. I have this sneaking suspicion that Matt Cassel is going to be pretty good.

Patriots 26, Jets 23

Baltimore at Houston: No team disappointed me more in week one than the Texans. But a rookie QB coming to town may be just what the doctor ordered.

Texans 17, Ravens 9

San Diego at Denver: As I've mentioned several times already this week, it is very difficult to ignore the results from just one week of action. I've gone against what my eyes saw last week several times already, but I think what I saw from Denver was legit. Jay Cutler looked incredibly good, and I see the Broncos sending a message this week.

Broncos 28, Chargers 23

Pittsburgh at Cleveland: Not going to fall into the trap here either. Cleveland will need to show me a lot more than they did in week one before I pick them to beat a quality team. I learned my lesson with the Steelers last week.

Steelers 30, Browns 23

Philadelphia at Dallas: Saved the best for last. Top game of the week gets the Monday Night showcase. Philly has looked good from the start of pre-season and they kept up the good work by dismantling the Rams in week one. And Dallas every bit as explosive as they did last year-- but maybe with an extra chip on their shoulder? This is an excellent game and a real early season treat. I look for the Eagles to keep pace for awhile before Romo sits to pee proves to be too much.

Cowboys 31, Eagles 23

4 To Score

1. Titans (+1) at Bengals. I think the oddsmakers are overestimating the impact that Vince Young has on his team. If anything, I think it may be a plus for the Titans. Really surprised Tennessee enters this game as an underdog.

2. 49ers (+9) at Seahawks. I could see Seattle covering the spread by keeping the 49ers in the single digits-- but I just don't think the Seahawks have the firepower to blow anyone away right now.

3. Texans (-4.5) vs. Ravens. I missed very badly on Houston last week. I say, let's roll the dice again.

4. Broncos (+2) vs. Chargers. I had a really hard time finding a 4th game this week. The Broncos seem like a good enough bet.

[royallypwned]

the Skins-Saints game is pretty much turning into a pick-em. As of right now, the Saints are favored by a single point in Vegas. Yesterday, the Skins were one point favorites. I pay more attention to that than the ESPN line, which has the Saints as 3.5 point favorites.

[NattyLight]

Picks, Pats and Apologies are back!! (I missed last weeks:mad:)

Only pick I really like is the Titans, every thing else looks, well, weird.

I'll try to muster up a four the score later today, but I think it's going to be tough. Although, you have to admit, the Skins should probably be there considering I'm seeing upwards of 75% action on them.

[Cooley4President]

Good job considering how tough it is to pick based on 1 week. It's hard enough to pick NFL games when you have 10 games to judge from, 1 is just impossible.

[NattyLight]

the Skins-Saints game is pretty much turning into a pick-em. As of right now, the Saints are favored by a single point in Vegas. Yesterday, the Skins were one point favorites. I pay more attention to that than the ESPN line, which has the Saints as 3.5 point favorites.

Pay attention to this

FO has the saints ranked as the 17th best team in the league based off of statistical rigor. ESPN has them at number 6. The Redskins is the play here, a play I refuse to make.

[royallypwned]

Pay attention to this

FO has the saints ranked as the 17th best team in the league based off of statistical rigor. ESPN has them at number 6. The Redskins is the play here, a play I refuse to make.

Thanks for the link. I agree that the Skins should get the majority of the bets placed on them based on what the spread is now. I also can't make a bet on this game, or any other NFC East game for that matter. I care too much about who wins that game to place a bet on it...especially when my bet would contradict how I want to cheer.

[Blondie]

Thanks for the link. I agree that the Skins should get the majority of the bets placed on them based on what the spread is now. I also can't make a bet on this game, or any other NFC East game for that matter. I care too much about who wins that game to place a bet on it...especially when my bet would contradict how I want to cheer.

Didn't you read the fine print at registration to this board?

All boys fans must doan the burgundy and gold and cheer for the SKINS for all games.....except 2 of course.

;)

[royallypwned]

Didn't you read the fine print at registration to this board?

All boys fans must doan the burgundy and gold and cheer for the SKINS for all games.....except 2 of course.

;)

LOL!

I guess I missed that part. I'll only cheer for the Skins if them winning helps out the Cowboys in the standings...or possibly when they play the Eagles. Philly fans deserve every loss their team gets.

[BigRay]

Picks look good I hope you're wrong on the Eagles/ Cowboys game though. Actually I think The Falcons will beat the Bucs.

[BigRay]

I do not know how the Texans disappointed you the Steelers is the better team.

[RalphZero]

The lock of the week is ....

Eagles +7.5 and the Under.

[Cooley4President]

The lock of the week is ....

Eagles +7.5 and the Under.

Like the Eagles, not so sure about the Under.

[royallypwned]

Like the Eagles, not so sure about the Under.

actually, I think the under is a good bet on this one. Looking at Bodog, which gives EXCELLENT matchup reports, the Cowboys have posted an under in their last 5 games. The Eagles have posted an under in 4 of the last 5. The Cowboys have gone under in 4 of the last 6 home games, and 4 of the last 6 home games against Philly.

[jrockster21]

Last Week's Pats: A below average start to this season for sure, but I did call a few things correctly. Most notably, I nailed my lock of the week with the Panthers easily covering the spread in their win over San Diego.

Yeah, I was owned by this game. I thought the Chargers would win easily. Guess Carolina is better than I thought this season.

[NattyLight]

The lock of the week is ....

Eagles +7.5 and the Under.

I don't typically like the word lock, but I may have to agree with you here, still too dangerous of a play in my opinion. My four to score would be as follows.

(1) Titans +1 @ Bengals. I don't know if Cincy's that bad, but I do know that Collins, sadly enough probably makes the Titans a better team than with Young. Even though the Bengals will be coming home with a chip on their shoulder, they'll be facing a better defense (yes, better than B-more) and a team that really thinks they can take their division this year.

(2) Giants -8.5 @ Rams. Are the Rams really that bad? Are the Giants really that good? Yes and yes. This is probably more public pick than usual, but I expect another really long day for Steven Jackson as the Giants front seven forces an overrated Bulger to make really dumb passes. Oh, and Plaxico fantasy owners are touching themselves right now, unless the Rams got a secondary on Ebay this week.

(3) NE +1.5 @ NYJ. The Pats are still an 11 win team this year without Brady, and the Jets just beat Miami. Barely. Say that last sentence to yourself again and realize that the Jets probably won't make it to the playoffs this year. NE was definitely coming to grips last week during the KC game that Brady was out for the season. Belichek is a system guy, and Cassel is a system QB. Expect Todd Collins like effectiveness with a Randy Moss like receiver. Devestation. NE wins big, the NYJ try to keep up.

(4) Just a note on this 4th pick, I like the Skins Pk more than any of the above. Actually, a lot more. I thought I could find another game as to stay away from this choosing them, but I couldn't. Everything else looks like mud. Frankly, the media is hammering the Skins, Jason Campbell and their talent is obscenely undervalued. The diametric opposite is true for the Saints. Power rankings: number 4? Surely you jest. Look, Springs will be back to take some pressure of that bum Carlos and Landry should be back to game speed from the get go. Jason Campbell, regardless of whether Kelly plays or not will be more productive, allowing Clinton to get >100 yds rushing. Skins roll, ES members claim Super Bowl run.

[kleese]

Yeah, I was owned by this game. I thought the Chargers would win easily. Guess Carolina is better than I thought this season.

Yes, Carolina is better than most people think-- and Norv was on the other sideline.

Easy money

[Tour of Duty]

I don't typically like the word lock, but I may have to agree with you here, still too dangerous of a play in my opinion. My four to score would be as follows.

(1) Titans +1 @ Bengals. I don't know if Cincy's that bad, but I do know that Collins, sadly enough probably makes the Titans a better team than with Young. Even though the Bengals will be coming home with a chip on their shoulder, they'll be facing a better defense (yes, better than B-more) and a team that really thinks they can take their division this year.

(2) Giants -8.5 @ Rams. Are the Rams really that bad? Are the Giants really that good? Yes and yes. This is probably more public pick than usual, but I expect another really long day for Steven Jackson as the Giants front seven forces an overrated Bulger to make really dumb passes. Oh, and Plaxico fantasy owners are touching themselves right now, unless the Rams got a secondary on Ebay this week.

(3) NE +1.5 @ NYJ. The Pats are still an 11 win team this year without Brady, and the Jets just beat Miami. Barely. Say that last sentence to yourself again and realize that the Jets probably won't make it to the playoffs this year. NE was definitely coming to grips last week during the KC game that Brady was out for the season. Belichek is a system guy, and Cassel is a system QB. Expect Todd Collins like effectiveness with a Randy Moss like receiver. Devestation. NE wins big, the NYJ try to keep up.

(4) Just a note on this 4th pick, I like the Skins Pk more than any of the above. Actually, a lot more. I thought I could find another game as to stay away from this choosing them, but I couldn't. Everything else looks like mud. Frankly, the media is hammering the Skins, Jason Campbell and their talent is obscenely undervalued. The diametric opposite is true for the Saints. Power rankings: number 4? Surely you jest. Look, Springs will be back to take some pressure of that bum Carlos and Landry should be back to game speed from the get go. Jason Campbell, regardless of whether Kelly plays or not will be more productive, allowing Clinton to get >100 yds rushing. Skins roll, ES members claim Super Bowl run.

I'm going to be in Vegas this weekend and I was planning on picking every game you just did (as well as the Texans over Bmore and Pitt to cover Clevland). Hopefully great minds think alike.

[jrockster21]

(3) NE +1.5 @ NYJ. The Pats are still an 11 win team this year without Brady, and the Jets just beat Miami. Barely. Say that last sentence to yourself again and realize that the Jets probably won't make it to the playoffs this year. NE was definitely coming to grips last week during the KC game that Brady was out for the season. Belichek is a system guy, and Cassel is a system QB. Expect Todd Collins like effectiveness with a Randy Moss like receiver. Devestation. NE wins big, the NYJ try to keep up.

Finally someone who shares my opinion of NE. They will dismantle the Jets this weekend. Just a gut feeling.

[China]

Let me get this straight, your lock of the week is the first pick listed each week?

That means Oakland winning is your lock of the week...and you're so confident in your lock that you only pick them to win 21 to 20?

[kleese]

Let me get this straight, your lock of the week is the first pick listed each week?

That means Oakland winning is your lock of the week...and you're so confident in your lock that you only pick them to win 21 to 20?

No, lock of the week is the first game listed under "4 To Score." Tennessee.

[MikeB]

actually, I think the under is a good bet on this one. Looking at Bodog, which gives EXCELLENT matchup reports, the Cowboys have posted an under in their last 5 games. The Eagles have posted an under in 4 of the last 5. The Cowboys have gone under in 4 of the last 6 home games, and 4 of the last 6 home games against Philly.

That is probably because the Cowboys and Eagles have been routing a lot of teams lately. Having them battling each other though? I expect the over, regardless of the history.

[Rypien1191]

Pardons! Pardons!

[kleese]

Pardons! Pardons!

I know, I know. But I'm a creature of habit-- been doing it for 4 years now. I think maybe I'll need to start a clean slate next year. I just can't bring myself to do it now-- even though it is clearly the better option

[Rypien1191]

No prob Kleese - I feel you.

[NattyLight]

Originally Posted by royallypwned View Post

actually, I think the under is a good bet on this one. Looking at Bodog, which gives EXCELLENT matchup reports, the Cowboys have posted an under in their last 5 games. The Eagles have posted an under in 4 of the last 5. The Cowboys have gone under in 4 of the last 6 home games, and 4 of the last 6 home games against Philly.

If Bodog is adamant about the under, Bodog wants you to bet the under for obvious reasons. Please be wary of sports books trying to influence your sides and totals. Trends are one thing, but your post alone makes me want to unload on the over. Not that I'm going to, but I'm just trying to give you something to think about.