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Wall Street Journal: Why Obama Can't Close the Sale

TC4

By TC4
in The Tailgate

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TC4

TC4

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http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122039919493892941.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries

Why Obama Can't Close the Sale

By AL HUBBARD and NOAM NEUSNER

September 3, 2008; Page A23

Even before John McCain shook up the presidential race by tapping Gov. Sarah Palin to be his running mate, polls weren't showing the late-August lead that Barack Obama (and many Republicans) expected. Why so?

It's not because of the brilliance of the McCain campaign. Rather we believe that -- despite the media's best efforts to exempt Mr. Obama's policies from critical examination -- American voters aren't sheep. They pay attention to the candidates and positions and make wise decisions about who should lead the country.

True, Mr. Obama enjoys several advantages. Republicans are struggling nationwide in head-to-head contests. Democrats lead in voter registration, and have a well-funded presidential candidate.

Yet Americans have not committed to Mr. Obama. Why?

Clearly, Mr. Obama's weakness on foreign policy is a factor. He has a knee-jerk preference for diplomacy with China, Europe and Russia over the security of the American people and our closest allies. He hasn't explained his shifting positions on Iraq and Iran, among other hot spots. And he felt compelled to make up for his experience gap with Mr. McCain by picking Sen. Joe Biden to be his running mate.

But here's the thing: It's not that Mr. Obama hasn't been specific enough in his governing plans. To the contrary, he has been very specific about his tax policy, health-care and energy proposals. It's that voters are paying attention and appear not to like what Candidate Obama is saying.

Mr. Obama has proposed a massive tax increase on investors, business owners, and the "wealthy." At a time when the American people rate the economy as the central issue of the campaign, a tax hike doesn't make a lot of political sense. Voters know that a tax hike won't help the economy.

Moreover, Mr. Obama's tax plans would directly or indirectly harm U.S. investors by raising the capital gains and dividend taxes. More than half of U.S. households are equity owners, so Mr. Obama's proposal risks alienating half the population.

****Please click on the link at the top for the full article****

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Burgold

Burgold

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I think the writer is off, but his point is on. There are lots of reasons, legit reasons, why Obama makes people skittish and that's not even counting the nonsense. His inexperience, his lack of landmark legislation, etc. are real issues that make people pause.

Obama has several things in his favor. He knows how to build a good team... and that's hugely important as President. He seems intelligent. He was President of the Harvard Law Review. He connects with people. He has solid leadership skills and can do the "vision" thing. He analyzes himself and his positions and is not stubbornly dogmattic. He seems a good person. Those around him seem to honestly like the guy. etc. If you lean liberal, he has many good ideas. If you lean American, he has many good ideas.

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DjTj

DjTj

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Latest gallop has him up 50% to 42%

http://http://www.gallup.com/poll/109960/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Hits-50-First-Time.aspx.

What was the WSJ expecting?

I think it's likely that the authors started writing this article before the latest polls came out.

All they're really saying is that people who believe in supply-side economics are not voting for Obama. That seems about right to me.

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Destino

Destino

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I think it's likely that the authors started writing this article before the latest polls came out.

All they're really saying is that people who believe in supply-side economics are not voting for Obama. That seems about right to me.

How long ago did they start writing it?

080902DailyUpdateGraph1_cnwprms.gif

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alexey

alexey

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Mr. Hubbard was director of the National Economic Council and assistant to the

president from 2005-2007. Mr. Neusner was the president's economic policy speechwriter from 2002-2004.

Clearly Bush approval ratings being above 0% shows that Americans are not sheep.

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JMS

JMS

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Latest gallop has him up 50% to 42%

http://http://www.gallup.com/poll/109960/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Hits-50-First-Time.aspx.

What was the WSJ expecting?

Before the convention Obama was up by 2 points. I think that is what the WSJ was addressing.

So according to the WSJ Americans are super informed and that's why Obama was up by only 2 pts. Not because McCain is a good candidate or running a good campagne. Aren't those points logically in conflict? If McCain wasn't a good candidage and running a good campagne, and the American people were supper informed; wouldn't Obama be up more?

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Henry

Henry

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Latest gallop has him up 50% to 42%

http://http://www.gallup.com/poll/109960/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Hits-50-First-Time.aspx.

What was the WSJ expecting?

I think they were expecting a bigger post-convention bounce. Apparently he should be ahead by 15 points or something.

Personally I think Palin's selection is what's kept it as close as it is now.

All this 'people just secretly don't like Obama' talk sounds like, well like something Bush's economic policy people would say.

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mjah

mjah

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Clinton only topped Bush by 5.6% in the popular vote in 1992.

And Clinton only topped Dole by 8.5% in the popular vote in 1996.

In a fictitious early-September election, Obama would be in league with both of those wins, which were actually quite comfortable.

Which raises the question: Why couldn't Clinton close the sale? :D

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PeterMP

PeterMP

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Clinton only topped Bush by 5.6% in the popular vote in 1992.

And Clinton only topped Dole by 8.5% in the popular vote in 1996.

In a fictitious early-September election, Obama would be in league with both of those wins, which were actually quite comfortable.

Which raises the question: Why couldn't Clinton close the sale? :D

Well, the early Sept. polls are a bit misleading because you are in the middle of the Republican convention after the Democratic convention. A good speech by Palin tonight and McCain tomorrow could erease that 5-8% lead and put it back to a toss up where it was two weeks ago before the Democratic convention so your comparision really is completely irrelevant and garbage (but I'd guess you actually knew that).

With that said, it is to early to be saying that Obama can't close the sale. People don't normally pull big leads this early (that don't close up some). Even the beginning of next week (especially with Palin as VP), the polls won't be really good as people settle back down into their decision.

In two weeks, the polls will be a good indicator of where things are. At this time, I'd actually be pretty surprised in Obama isn't up by at least 5% UNLESS something else breaks.

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Zguy28

Zguy28

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Clearly Bush approval ratings being above 0% shows that Americans are not sheep.
:laugh: :rolleyes:

I love it when people trot these little barbs out. As much as I can't stand defending George Bush (yes, I voted for him. Twice. :doh: :doh: ), what is the approval rating of your Democrat-controlled Congress (of which both of your candidates are a part) since taking the majority?

Just since the new year it has dropped from 23% to 14%. Hmm...while Dubya's is hovering around 30% consistently.

Carry on with stuff that matters...

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BRAVEONAWARPATH

BRAVEONAWARPATH

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:laugh: :rolleyes:

I love it when people trot these little barbs out. As much as I can't stand defending George Bush (yes, I voted for him. Twice. :doh: :doh: ), what is the approval rating of your Democrat-controlled Congress (of which both of your candidates are a part) since taking the majority?

Just since the new year it has dropped from 23% to 14%. Hmm...while Dubya's is hovering around 30% consistently.

Carry on with stuff that matters...

Nothing you've said is incorrect but even you know that the Dems' control is tenuous at best.

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Zguy28

Zguy28

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Nothing you've said is incorrect but even you know that the Dems' control is tenuous at best.
Tenuous?

Maybe, maybe not, but all the American people see is that the Democrats didn't deliver on their promises.

Maybe I should start a new thread on this topic so I don't hijack? :)

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Peeping Wizard

Peeping Wizard

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Posted
Clinton only topped Bush by 5.6% in the popular vote in 1992.

And Clinton only topped Dole by 8.5% in the popular vote in 1996.

In a fictitious early-September election, Obama would be in league with both of those wins, which were actually quite comfortable.

Which raises the question: Why couldn't Clinton close the sale? :D

Clinton didn't close the sale. Ross Perot closed it for him.

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mjah

mjah

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A good speech by Palin tonight and McCain tomorrow could erease that 5-8% lead and put it back to a toss up where it was two weeks ago before the Democratic convention so your comparision really is completely irrelevant and garbage (but I'd guess you actually knew that).

Hyperbole much? :rolleyes:

You'll notice that I referred to a fictitious early-September election. So thanks so much, but I already acknowledged the timing issue.

And poll timing really isn't the biggest issue anyway, with regard to the original article. The exact opposite of the article's basic stance is an equally valid question. Because depending upon when you look at the polls, the War Hero Maverick Aisle Crosser is either trailing significantly or statistically tied -- in a race against a half-black young Senator from Illinois whose voting record is every bit as liberal as McCain's is conservative.

It's therefore amazing that McCain is having trouble just setting up the sale, much less even approaching a close. I guess something must be terribly, terribly wrong in the McCain camp. Why can't McCain set up the sale? (I'd suggest Bush, Cheney, Palin for starters, but opinions will vary.)

That's the bigger issue: The article only asked half of the full question.

In two weeks, the polls will be a good indicator of where things are. At this time, I'd actually be pretty surprised in Obama isn't up by at least 5% UNLESS something else breaks.
Ah, so you're on board with the same possibility as me: a setup for a comfortable Obama win, with the outcome to hinge on any October surprises and some debates that probably won't change many minds. A 5% margin in popular vote would be an Electoral slaughter, as I indicated earlier.

Time will tell...

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