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Early career stats of some HOF QBs -- JC related


Larry Brown #43

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I did some research on the TD/INT ratios of a handful of Hall of Fame/Hall of Fame-bound quarterbacks. Specifically, I looked at their early career numbers--numbers they had compiled after having started roughly as many regular season NFL games as Jason Campbell has to date.

Jason has started only 20 NFL games, and in those 20 games he has thrown 22 TDs and 17 INTs (a +5 ratio). Yet some feel we've already seen enough, and that it's time to pull the plug.

Now, looking at the QBs below and their early career TD/INT ratios, isn't it safe to say some are jumping the gun a bit here? My point is not to say that JC will be a Hall of Famer, or even a Pro Bowler necessarily. But don't the numbers below, at a mimimum, suggest that it's way too early to make any declarative statements about Campbell not being cut out for the job?

If you held the following QBs to the same standard you hold Campbell to, would you have had the patience to let them succeed as they ultimately did, or would you have tossed them aside before they hit their stride?

First a few disclaimers:

1) Yes, I know that it's not ideal to compare JC's numbers to the numbers of these QBs, given that they played on different teams, with different teammates, a number of years apart. It's not perfect, I get that.

2) Yes, some QBs performed better than the following QBs did early in their careers. I know that. But the point I'm making is, even great QBs often take more seasoning than people realize to reach their potential. These are Hall of Fame QBs. If I had opened my research up to very good QBs who were not HOF-caliber, I could have really had some fun with the numbers.

3) I know that TD/INT ratios don't tell the whole story of a QBs, performance, but I think they can give you a general sense of a QBs effectiveness.

OK, here are the numbers. Compare them to JC's 22 TDs and 17 INTs through 20 starts. Would you have had patience with the following QBs?

Troy Aikman

20 TDs/ 36 INTs after 26 career starts (-16)

John Elway

25 TDs/ 29 INTs after 24 career starts (-4)

Brett Favre

37 TDs/39 INTs after 29 career starts (-2)

Joe Namath

37 TDs/ 42 INTs after 23 career starts (-5)

Steve Young

11 TDs/ 21 INTs after 19 career starts (-10)

And not a Hall of Famer, but just for fun...

Jim Zorn

28 TDs/ 46 INTs after 24 career starts (-18)

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Troy Aikman

20 TDs/ 36 INTs after 26 career starts (-16) might have been the worst team in NFL history at the time

John Elway

25 TDs/ 29 INTs after 24 career starts (-4) fed to the wolves, and no one was on that team to help him

Brett Favre

37 TDs/39 INTs after 29 career starts (-2) Who? never heard of him? ;)

Joe Namath

37 TDs/ 42 INTs after 23 career starts (-5) should not be in the HoF, he is there cause he won ONE game after he said they would....IMHO

Steve Young

11 TDs/ 21 INTs after 19 career starts (-10) See aikman above

And not a Hall of Famer, but just for fun...

Jim Zorn

28 TDs/ 46 INTs after 24 career starts (-18)

btw

im waiting for his next 4th quarter comeback, because it will be his first.....(none even in college)

with all that said, im very pumped to see him this year.....he better have improved on throwing the deep ball

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All you research really shows me is that some of the great QBs took their knocks before they got great. Campbell hasn't seen the adversity these QBs have, he hasn't had the desparity of being the only decent player on an otherwise bad team.

"What doesn't kill you makes you stronger"...while he may have better stats at this point in his career, in the long term he may not have the experience or toughness gained from the tough times to be a real gamer in the league.:2cents:

That being said, I am a big fan of JC and think he is just on the edge of breaking through to becoming a gamer despite the lack of aforementioned knocks.

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Troy Aikman

btw

im waiting for his next 4th quarter comeback, because it will be his first.....(none even in college)

You're wrong. Just off the top of my head I know he lead a 4th quarter comeback to beat the defending BCS Champions from LSU in 2004.

with all that said, im very pumped to see him this year.....he better have improved on throwing the deep ball

I hope the receivers can catch the deep ball better also. They probably dropped half a dozen 35+ yard passes.

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Troy Aikman

might have been the worst team in NFL history at the time

His rookie year, perhaps. His second season, which is included in the numbers I provided, Dallas went 7-9. Certainly not one of the worst teams in history. His numbers were so bad that season that Dallas likely won 7 games DESPITE him, not BECAUSE of him.

Don't tempt me...I'll find plenty more examples of very good QBs who started off slowly if you're going to rationalize each one. :)

Let's also not forget that JC was given the starting job midway through the '06 season BECAUSE the team was bad and the playoffs were out of reach. Let's not pretend that he took over the '91 Redskins.

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This really is a make or break year for Jason . . . Snyder and company have even said that they would start negotiating a long-term deal if he comes out of the gates fast and plays well . . . That implies that if he is mediocre, then no contract extension. I have always been a huge Jason supporter . . . and of course wish him the best.

Those stats are interesting though and should tell people to have patience with quarterbacks . . . Unfortunately, not all of them start big like Tom Brady. Jason has all the tools to be a solid if not great qb . . . we are putting the right weapons around him to take pressure off of him and not force him to have to win games. It really is a HUGE year for Jason.

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But I don't know if Colt has what it takes as of right now. He's still number 3 on the depth chart. And he may be sitting this entire first year.

Edit:

Whoops! Sorry bout that.

;)

'Crusher...

GRRRR.

Seriously, those numbers are interesting. Aikman for instance. Jeez - dude would've been run outta here on a rail. Thx LB.

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All you research really shows me is that some of the great QBs took their knocks before they got great.

It should also show that it's way too early to judge JC negatively. I said this before, but he was given the job in '06 because the team was bad and out of playoff contention halfway through the season. Let's not forget that.

Seriously, those numbers are interesting. Aikman for instance. Jeez - dude would've been run outta here on a rail.

Exactly. The name 'Troy' would have meant to us what the name 'Heath' does to us today.

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All you research really shows me is that some of the great QBs took their knocks before they got great. Campbell hasn't seen the adversity these QBs have, he hasn't had the desparity of being the only decent player on an otherwise bad team.

"What doesn't kill you makes you stronger"...while he may have better stats at this point in his career, in the long term he may not have the experience or toughness gained from the tough times to be a real gamer in the league.:2cents:

That being said, I am a big fan of JC and think he is just on the edge of breaking through to becoming a gamer despite the lack of aforementioned knocks.

he hasn't seen adversity are you crazy. especially from the fans on this board..lol..he has injuries..to O-line and Receivers..Unorganized coaching staff. ..Learning a new offense like every year...Oh..Troy Aikman and Steve Young saw so much adversity..Steve Young had a team set up for him and Jerry Rice (hall of famer) mind you..Troy Aikman had Michael Irvin (hall of famer) and Emmit Smith (hall of famer)..you loose brownie points dude..A lot of these teams had a lot more talent this us..bad assessment dude :doh:

this goes for the second statement too.

Wow dude..you lost me..this is good to compare him to hall of famers..you can even compare him to Peyton Manning his first 20 games..How many QBs that are rookies and thrown into the fire..and gamers on this list do you see have a positive TD to turnover ratio..No one comes into the league as a rookie and doesn't have a learning curve and I think he has done exceptionally well stating that. But people on here are too stubborn negative and bias to realize this. Wake up folks..that or either you just want to hate him..:cool:

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I did some research on the TD/INT ratios of a handful of Hall of Fame/Hall of Fame-bound quarterbacks. Specifically, I looked at their early career numbers--numbers they had compiled after having started roughly as many regular season NFL games as Jason Campbell has to date.

Jason has started only 20 NFL games, and in those 20 games he has thrown 22 TDs and 17 INTs (a +5 ratio). Yet some feel we've already seen enough, and that it's time to pull the plug.

Now, looking at the QBs below and their early career TD/INT ratios, isn't it safe to say some are jumping the gun a bit here? My point is not to say that JC will be a Hall of Famer, or even a Pro Bowler necessarily. But don't the numbers below, at a mimimum, suggest that it's way too early to make any declarative statements about Campbell not being cut out for the job?

If you held the following QBs to the same standard you hold Campbell to, would you have had the patience to let them succeed as they ultimately did, or would you have tossed them aside before they hit their stride?

First a few disclaimers:

1) Yes, I know that it's not ideal to compare JC's numbers to the numbers of these QBs, given that they played on different teams, with different teammates, a number of years apart. It's not perfect, I get that.

2) Yes, some QBs performed better than the following QBs did early in their careers. I know that. But the point I'm making is, even great QBs often take more seasoning than people realize to reach their potential. These are Hall of Fame QBs. If I had opened my research up to very good QBs who were not HOF-caliber, I could have really had some fun with the numbers.

3) I know that TD/INT ratios don't tell the whole story of a QBs, performance, but I think they can give you a general sense of a QBs effectiveness.

OK, here are the numbers. Compare them to JC's 22 TDs and 17 INTs through 20 starts. Would you have had patience with the following QBs?

Troy Aikman

20 TDs/ 36 INTs after 26 career starts (-16)

John Elway

25 TDs/ 29 INTs after 24 career starts (-4)

Brett Favre

37 TDs/39 INTs after 29 career starts (-2)

Joe Namath

37 TDs/ 42 INTs after 23 career starts (-5)

Steve Young

11 TDs/ 21 INTs after 19 career starts (-10)

And not a Hall of Famer, but just for fun...

Jim Zorn

28 TDs/ 46 INTs after 24 career starts (-18)

Awsome, I love these stats, I have faith in JC. It is a huge year for JC and he dose need to step up. But this just shows most QB's are not perfect at the start of there career. Practice makes perfect right. Go JC

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You can also add Drew Breez to this list. He's not a HOF QB, but the guy started off horrible...so bad that they spent a first rounder (the first pick in the draft) on his replacement Eli Manning...eeer, I mean Philip Rivers. But if you look at his stats now, people seem to forget how bad he started off.

Its so hard to judge JC right now. We can make as many arguments in favor of him as we like, but for every legit argument saying he'll be a hall of famer, there's a legit argument calling him a bust. We can't just dismiss them, and we can't argue him into the HOF or onto the bench. We've just got to be patient and wait. I'm pretty confident he'll silence his critics this season. What impresses me the most about this guy is his intelligence. I think thats showing in his ability to learn these offenses so quickly and perform. This is a smart dude.

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Maybe this explains why Philthy can't get a ring :laugh:

But yea, seriously, if any of these guys were eagirls they would have been booed out of the stadium. Interesting stats to look at next time you're knocking any young QB. Having seen these stats though I'd like to have seen these guys play during those early years when they were struggling. I mean, there's something about JC that I've just always thought he was gonna end up good even when his stats aren't looking too great and I wasn't the same way about Ramsey or anybody and so far I'm kinda the same way about Colt after Sunday, wasn't before that though.

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You can also add Drew Breez to this list. He's not a HOF QB, but the guy started off horrible...so bad that they spent a first rounder (the first pick in the draft) on his replacement Eli Manning...eeer, I mean Philip Rivers. But if you look at his stats now, people seem to forget how bad he started off.

I wanted to go with Hall of Famers for the list (or in the case of Favre, a clear-cut future Hall of Famer) to make my point. But yeah, if I started adding very good QBs who are not quite HOFers (like Brees), the list would be a mile long.

Its so hard to judge JC right now. We can make as many arguments in favor of him as we like, but for every legit argument saying he'll be a hall of famer, there's a legit argument calling him a bust.

I don't think anyone's saying he'll be a Hall of Famer yet, and that certainly wasn't the point of my original post. But I also think it's ludicrous to call him a bust this soon, especially in light of these numbers.

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I don't think anyone's saying he'll be a Hall of Famer yet, and that certainly wasn't the point of my original post. But I also think it's ludicrous to call him a bust this soon, especially in light of these numbers.

I classify myself as a realist. I see Jason on the bubble this year. I think Jim Zorn was brought here to give Jason his best shot at getting over the hump.

About your stats, though...

by subtracting INTs from TDs to get your plus and minus numbers, you are giving INTs and TDs equal weight -- but INTs aren't worth seven points. According to two studies online, the average turnover is worth about four points.

So, if we were to compare Patrick Ramsey, as a Redskin, and Jason Campbell on the TD/INT stats, with plus seven points for TDs and minus four points for TDs, it would look like this:

Campbell (22-17) 20 starts, + 86 points, +4.30 points per start.

Ramsey (34-29) 25 starts, +122 points, +4.88 per start

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About your stats, though...

by subtracting INTs from TDs to get your plus and minus numbers, you are giving INTs and TDs equal weight -- but INTs aren't worth seven points. According to two studies online, the average turnover is worth about four points.

So, if we were to compare Patrick Ramsey, as a Redskin, and Jason Campbell on the TD/INT stats, with plus seven points for TDs and minus four points for INTs, it would look like this:

Campbell (22-17) 20 starts, + 86 points, +4.30 points per start.

Ramsey (34-29) 25 starts, +122 points, +4.88 per start

Thank you, I was thinking the same thing but didnt want to do the work...

All anyone has proven here is:

A) there is a learning curve

B) everyones learning curve is different

PS, im a stat kind of person too, and I also think they can be indicative of certain things... BUT subtracting INTs from TDs doesnt make sense. Furthermore, a ration is division, not subtraction, I don't even know what to call what you did.

PPS, I do not see Jason on the bubble, but do think Zorn was brought here specificially for Jason.

:logo:

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PS, im a stat kind of person too, and I also think they can be indicative of certain things... BUT subtracting INTs from TDs doesnt make sense. Furthermore, a ration is division, not subtraction, I don't even know what to call what you did.

Those who call the TD/INT stats a "ratio" are mistaken since TDs and INTs have different values. I simply assigned a value to each and computed the average point differential per game.

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Those who call the TD/INT stats a "ratio" are mistaken since TDs and INTs have different values. I simply assigned a value to each and computed the average point differential per game.

Why isn't it a ratio? I can have an apple to orange ratio even though they are different fruits. Not to mention apples are vastly superior to oranges (this has been empirically proven. you cannot argue this point).

It's just a quick rule of thumb evaluation, much like using the arbitrary "passer rating" to compare passers.

In the end I don't know if it means anything because the true evaluation of any QB is how they play on the field much more than whatever factors into their stats (e.g. dropped passes on great throws, great catches on poor throws, playing from behind, playing with a lead, etc.)

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So following your logic, Derek Anderson and Tony Romo sits to pee are going to be HOF locks!

JC (20 games): 22/17

Anderson (20 games): 34/27

Romo sits to pee (28 games): 55/32

Also... JC's "ratio" doesn't look as hot if you add in fumbles.

____________________

But all that is besides the point. He is getting to start this season.

Can we all at least agree that this is it? Either put up or shut up? I have hope that JC will put up. My gut tells me he won't but my fandom hopes he will.

One thing is for certain: there better not BE ANYONE at the end of this season still making excuses for JC and saying he more time before we make a decision about him. I will lose my **** if I see people saying at the end of the year "its too early; he needs more than one season in the new offense, wah wah wah."

This is it for him. No more excuses. Either he is Pro Bowl caliber this year, or he needs to be gone. We can afford to invest our future and a franchise-qb-level contract into someone we have questions marks about. He has to answer them.

No more excuses. Make the next step, JC.

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I'm waiting for certain posters to come and crap all over this thread. =)

Haters ..., I hate them. :silly:

JC is going to have 20+ TD's this year, and -15 Int's and have a +60 comp. %. Also toss in 3 rushing TD's and about 300 yards rushing. That is a given. Is that great, no. Will that be enough to make us competitive and put us on the good side of .500 - YES! So be happy with that. :security:

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