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My Skins Draft Analysis, 1-3rd round, long

Skinsinparadise

By Skinsinparadise
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Skinsinparadise

Skinsinparadise

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Been studying the draft a bit (its all I can think of to do to kill time in the off season) these are my conclusions based on reading everything I can get my hands on from the draft geeks. Feel free to rip or challenge anything here. I don’t claim to be an NFL scout or expert; I am just having some fun trying to dissect things. Plus am sure I am omitting some good prospective players in the mix, impossible for me to think of everybody.

My conclusion is that if they want to go D line in terms of pass rushing, they need to use the first rounder on it. So if they like Merling and Campbell and one of them drops to 21 they pick him. In the 2nd round they go CB. In the third round (assuming they end up having 2 picks) they go WR and OG. Here’s how I get there:

1st round

The Skins seem to have a complicated task since they in all likelihood will have choices of players that aren’t really much different talent wise from the players available in the first half of the 2nd round.

It seems to be the FO ammo to take the top player available in the first round even if it’s not our top need (as long as it fits one of our needs) Cerrato implied on Redskins radio that they will adopt that philosophy again.

The most obvious pick that fits that philosophy is the top guard on the board: Branden Albert. By and large he is the consensus top pick at that position and should be there at 21. Other than Albert the Skins won’t have a shot at the best player available for a position with the exception of Kenny Phillips at safety and maybe Malcolm Kelly at WR.

We arguably have bigger needs than safety and Phillips’ stock has dropped and isn’t regarded for the most part as a consensus stud. He seems to be falling to the late first round, early 2nd in most mocks. Malcolm Kelly isn’t an overwhelming consensus #1 receiver but he seems to be picked as the top WR more than the others. I can’t see him getting past both the Bills and Eagles though.

Some of the top tier players that might fall to 21

Phillip Merling: DE. Most have him going before 21. Kiper actually has him at #9. Perhaps the hernia surgery drops his stock, though.

Calais Campbell: DE. In most mocks he goes either right before us, often to the Vikings at #17 but some have him going to us at 21 or later in the first round.

Aquib Talib: CB. Kiper has him going to us at 21. Many mocks have him going before that, with a few after.

Limas Sweed: WR. Big receiver with big numbers. But not all scouts are in love with this guy and seem to be wary about his wrist injury. I am assuming he’s not on the top of the Skins radar list, but it doesn’t seem totally far fetched that he would be, so I’ll include him.

I am guessing that Merling, Campbell, Talib don’t all fall to 21 but good chance one of them does. And I am assuming (it’s a big assumption but since of course I don’t talk to the Skins scouts so that’s all I can go by) that the Skins scouts see the draft like the draft geeks do. If so, they will pick the player of those three that falls to them. If not they go with Albert.

2nd round

To me it looks like CB and DT and maybe WR are the positions that are best in play. With OG unless Schuening is available, the other guys seem like a reach. At DE if Jackson is still around and they like him, they snag him but I don’t see him being there. Since I have them going D line in round 1, I see them taking best CB or WR available – if Jordy Nelson or a player of his ilk at WR is there they take him or a CB like a Tracy Porter or Charles Godfrey. I am betting CB, though unless all the good ones are gone at 21. How do I get there?

It’s tough for me to see the more attractive 2nd tier players falling to them like an Andre Caldwell, Earl Bennett or Devin Thomas at WR or Jackson at DE, Laws, Sims at DT, Reggie Smith at CB, etc. Mel Kiper once said it makes a huge difference picking early 2nd round versus later. And I think that point comes into play here.

WR: Tall possession receiver possibilities: Jordy Nelson – though might be a slight reach here, he seems to be a high 3rd rounder. Adarius Bowman – ditto he seems to be a third rounder in most mocks.

DTs: The best prospects left are known more as run stuffers than pass rushers. I am guessing 3 of these 4 are gone by the time the Skins pick at 21. Marcus Harrison, Trevor Laws, Pat Simms, Dre Moore. But one of these guys might fall to 21.

DE: It’s not impossible for Jackson to still be here but it seems unlikely. The possibilities seem more likely to be projects with upside like a Jason Jones or Chris Ellis (though I doubt they go for him because of character reasons)

OG: Roy Schuening might still be around, Chilo Rachel should too but he’s probably a reach here as well as a host of prospects but the draft geeks don’t seem excited about any of them.

CB: Reggie Smith might be available here, but probably someone snatches him before. There is a chance Tracy Porter will be around and he sounds like a good prospect, ditto Charles Godfrey.

3rd round

If they haven’t gone guard yet, I think they use one of their picks for one unless they are convinced there isn’t much of a difference between the 3rd and 5th round in that position which doesn’t seem far fetched. If a good tall receiver is available they choose him here. DE likely doesn’t look exciting in this round – it’s possible a decent CB or DT prospect falls here. They end up going WR and OG.

Guard? Here is my thought unless they take Albert with the first or Schuening with the 2nd, it’s a good place to pluck a guard. Even if lets say Chilo Rachel doesn’t drop down to the third, there seems to be a host of prospects with similar ability. There seems to be no general excitement about the guards past the top two prospects. But Bugel is plenty smarter than the draft geeks, and if he likes a prospect here, they draft him.

CB: If they draft CB in the prior 2 rounds they leave it alone. If not, you have possible prospects like Justin King, Patrick Lee (if he drops this far), Chevis Jackson.

WR: Bowman can drop down this far, or possibly tall Wrs like Justin Harper, DJ Hall.

DE: Projects with potential like Jason Jones could fall down this far, maybe Kenny Iwebema, Chris Harrington

DT: Red Bryant – though good chance he doesn’t drop down this far. Maybe Andre Fluellen.

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Chump Bailey

Chump Bailey

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It’s tough for me to see the more attractive 2nd tier players falling to them like an Andre Caldwell, Earl Bennett or Devin Thomas at WR or Jackson at DE, Laws, Sims at DT, Reggie Smith at CB, etc. Mel Kiper once said it makes a huge difference picking early 2nd round versus later. And I think that point comes into play here.

Absolutely agree with this. Man do I wish we had a couple of early second round picks!!!

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Skinsinparadise

Skinsinparadise

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Absolutely agree with this. Man do I wish we had a couple of early second round picks!!!

Agree, I'd love to be able to trade down and pick up another pick. Assuming these players don't go late 1st. Early to mid 2nd round you probably have:

DE, Lawrence Jackson maybe even Calais Campbell though I doubt it

Probably a host of WRs like Mario Manningham, maybe Sweed, Devin Thomas, James Hardy

CB's Brandon Flowers, Reggie Smith

DT's: Marcus Harrison, Trevor Laws, Pat Sims, maybe Dre Moore

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MumboSauce

MumboSauce

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Nice job on research and analysis. Well thought out imo. I'd be ok with Albert round one or Kelley, Merling....Campbell if he falls to the second around our pick. I'm sure they have their board in place. Stranger things happen and players fall for whatever reason so you never really know until it unfolds on draft day. Agree with those early round 2 picks...would be great to trade out of that low first rounder and get more picks and fill more areas in the successive rounds...not an easy position to trade out of though and find a partner unless a player some team covets falls.

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Skinsinparadise

Skinsinparadise

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Good thoughts on the first three rounds. Now, rather than do my own research (time has become scarce lately), I will simply use your comments.

Great thoroughness and thanks again!

Thanks, studying it a little more after writing this, looks like Kiper is a big Chilo Rachel fan so at least in his book picking him in the 2nd probably isn't a stretch.

as for the DE side of things in the third round Jason Jones and Kenny Iawbema have a decent shot of being there and they might be more intrigiung than my first thought

Some are touting Jeremy Geathers (son of Jumpy Geathers) as a pass rushing specialist in the later rounds with some upside

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lavar1156

lavar1156

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I like: 1st rd= B. Albert OG Virgina

2nd= L. Jackson DE USC

3rd= J. King CB Penn State

3rd= J. Nelson WR KSU

it fills alot of needs.

Kiper has King going in the first round, so I'm not sure he will be there in round 3. I'm not sure guard is the way to go in the first round, unless he is by far he best player available then I think we should take a DE or WR.

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