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How good can you REALLY scout quarterbacks?


adamyesme1111

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I have heard of an around the NFL section of extreme skins I thought, but I can't find it anywhere so I am going to post it here.

Plus the search function never works, but at least I am not starting a trade for somebody thread. I am simply just stating somthin I have noticed and I am sure others have noticed as well, and I want to know you guys' opinions on the matter.

After doing a little bit of research on the top 50 quarterbacks being recruited from the highschool level in 2003, I found that only 4 are going to be drafted it looks like, 2 have already been drafted, and 2 more are going to get drafted this year. Out of the 50 top quarterbacks going into college only 4 continue on to the NFL? How do you scout a quarterback? How do you know he is going to succeed at the next level.

This brought another question to mind. How different is a quarterback drafted first overall then a quarterback drafted in the later rounds? I understand that the NFL scouts are ALOT more experienced then college scouts, but how many late round picks are giving a chance?

Now, I know that they are brought in and giving a chance in practice and blah blah blah. How much pressure do you think is put on them? If your drafted first overall they are going to stick with you no matter what, and keep giving you chances, if you are drafted in the late round they are giving you ONE chance to make the team and that is going to be on you everyday at practice, you could play better then the first pick overall and you would still be the weak link most likely. As you can tell from Eli Manning winning the superbowl this year, maybe alot more late round quarterbacks would succeed if they were stuck with for four years?

Of course I am not proposing anything of the such for the Redskins, I am just wondering if anyone else has noticed this? What if Palmer got stuck with 4 years starting almost every game? Would he have eventually succeeded as well? I doubt it.

This might be just of rambling on, but I do not see nothing special about Matt Ryan this year. He is going to most likely be the first quarterback selected overall. Maybe I don't know what i'm talking about but from the tape i've watched of him alone I am not impressed, even less so with his stats. Maybe there is somthing I am missing, of course I am NOT an NFL scout...but it makes you wonder...how good are these guys at truly evaluating what a quarterback will do at the next level. Call me crazy but it seems the only way you would be able to know how a young quarterback would handle the pressure is if you were in his head.

Thoughts?

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A few random thoughts.

1. What makes a good College QB and good NFL QB are different. A lot of College offenses have athletic QB's who make as many plays with their legs as their arms. In the NFL being able to move is a good thing but you make your living with your arm. That probably explains why so few highly touted High School QBs and succesful College QB's actually make an NFL roster let alone start at that level.

2. You can scout the measurables with a QB - quickness (pass drop), arm strength, release, throwing mechanics and accuracy etc. However its the 6 inches between the ears which count for so much with a QB and thats hard to evaluate. Take the classic of Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf - teams were split on which was the better pro prospect. Leaf had all the measurables and stacked up well against Manning on paper but he was a classic immature guy with great physical gifts but not the brain/character to take advantage of those gifts.

Watching game g=film, interviewing former coaches and team mates etc can help but you dont know how they are going to handle being a high draft pick, instant millionaire and the media attention until it happens.

Drafting is just not an exact science for any position but for QB is the one with the biggest question mark of all. We still are not exactly sure what we have with Jason Campbell and he has been in the NFL for 3 years now ......

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Thoughts?

If we consider Ryan Leaf on one end and Tom Brady on the other, I think your question is valid from the standpoint of a team simply can't be much more than guessing how a guy is going to pan out.

I mean, Gibbs won three Superbowls with three very different qb's; Joe, a refugee from the CFL, Rip, no ones idea of a sure thing and Doug, the only one of the three with any kind of high expectations at all coming into the NFL.

Imagine actually being a GM and actually having to pick a guy, for real. Not as some argument on the forums. Not as some claimed 'feeling' about the next Brady or Montana, but an actual lay it on the line pick.

So, 'really' scouting, how they handled pressure and played in college, pretty tough if the goal is to be sure with a high pick.

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You need to scout for strong work ethic. Guys like Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are both hard workers. With enough practice, IMHO, I could probably train even a gorilla to throw the ball accurately with enough practice. The nature of the NFL is that it doesn't allow the QB to gain experience. If he struggles for a couple of years, he's gonna lose his job. San Diego drafted Rivers because they thought Brees was a bust, but after a few years in the league, Brees has turned out to be one of the best QB's in the league at the moment.

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You need to scout for strong work ethic. Guys like Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are both hard workers. With enough practice, IMHO, I could probably train even a gorilla to throw the ball accurately with enough practice. QUOTE]

Hard work and application are important but not enough on there own. Also the ability to throw the ball with accuracy is pretty much a given at the College level let alone the NFL and there are thousands of guys in the US who can throw the ball hard and are willing to work hard.

My point its comes back to the 6 inches between the ears and the ability of the guy to deal with the money, fame, hangers on and pressure of producing at the NFL level and thats just about impossible to predict.

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You need to scout for strong work ethic. Guys like Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are both hard workers. With enough practice, IMHO, I could probably train even a gorilla to throw the ball accurately with enough practice. QUOTE]

Hard work and application are important but not enough on there own. Also the ability to throw the ball with accuracy is pretty much a given at the College level let alone the NFL and there are thousands of guys in the US who can throw the ball hard and are willing to work hard.

My point its comes back to the 6 inches between the ears and the ability of the guy to deal with the money, fame, hangers on and pressure of producing at the NFL level and thats just about impossible to predict.

Exactly. Matt Ryan reminds me of Tom Brady, and Joe Flacco reminds me of Big Ben. Those two have it. Pass on guys like Brohm and Woodson.

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My point its comes back to the 6 inches between the ears and the ability of the guy to deal with the money, fame, hangers on and pressure of producing at the NFL level and thats just about impossible to predict.

He has to be able to lead a team and have guys playing hard for him.

I think the biggest challenge is finding the guy who can face the pressure from the defense and still make the throws. Its easy to look good in practice, but with all the pressure and the game on the line, its how they perform then that matters.

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The OP puts forth an interesting question.

I am fairly sure that even among the NFL experts, you will have several different schools of thoughts in response to this question. I'd bet that ex-quarterback Jim Zorn, like ex-QB Ron Jaworski, will be tuned into the kid's mechanics, his body type, his athleticism and his intelligence. His college stats will be ignored because those stats are linked to team and scheme.

I'm not sure what Jaws or Zorn look for in mechanics. There are positives and negatives to every way of throwing a baseball or football. I taught my sons and grandsons by starting them out with both knees on the ground. This produces a short, quick motion with the ball released just above and close to the ear. It produces accuracy with velocity because the QB can throw from less than ideal balance and positions. A mobile QB can throw rolling left or right. The negative on this approach is that it's difficult to get touch on fades and deep throws. Dan Marino's father taught him to throw a football with both knees on the ground.

Jim Zorn gave us a hint of his thinking when he told us that Jason Campbell has a long arm, so the longer motion is necessary in his case. Zorn told us that he wasn't worried about it. Now, that might mean that he doesn't see it as much of a problem or it could mean that it's a limitation in ability that Zorn can't change. In either case, the comment tells us that he is going to consider body types when looking at young QBs.

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