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FOX: Quick reads: It's all about the matchups


bubba9497

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http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/7287280?print=true

click link for full article

Quick reads: It's all about the matchups

Why do we feel our DPAR stats give a more accurate list of Sunday's best players than standard yards and touchdowns? One big reason is the opponent adjustments, and Week 4 was a great example of this principle in action.

The top quarterbacks this week included Joey Harrington and Matt Schaub, and the top receivers included Michael Jenkins and Andre Davis. How could these players have such huge days? It helps that Houston and Atlanta are each extremely weak at cornerback once you get past Dunta Robinson and DeAngelo Hall.

Dallas won because Tony Romo sits to pee is playing well, but Dallas won by four touchdowns because Tony Romo sits to pee got to play against a terrible St. Louis secondary that couldn't keep up with or tackle Patrick Crayton.

Denver got 131 yards from Travis Henry, most of them in just one half, and 81 yards on just eight carries from backup Selvin Young. The Colts got 136 yards from Joseph Addai and another 80 yards on just 10 carries from backup Kenton Keith. Some of this is related to the fact that both teams have strong offensive lines. But two backups combined for 160 yards because neither defense can stop the run.

Unfortunately, it is hard to apply the opponent adjustments early in the year because we don't know exactly how good or bad these defenses really are yet. Are the Giants the team that gave up tons of points in the first two weeks, or the team that sacked Donovan McNabb roughly once every six seconds?

This week we start including opponent adjustments, but they are still only 40 percent strength compared to what they will be after Week 10. Still, it is enough to move Peyton Manning ahead of Romo sits to pee for the top spot among this week's quarterbacks. Putting up big numbers against Ron Bartell and Lenny Walls isn't quite like putting up big numbers against Champ Bailey and Dre' Bly.

Here are the best and worst players of Week 4 according to the Football Outsiders DPAR (Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement) statistics. Click here to learn more about what these numbers mean and how they are computed.

Quarterbacks

Rk Player Team CP/AT YDS TD INT Total DPAR Pass DPAR Rush DPAR

1. Peyton Manning IND 20/27 193 3 0 13.4 12.5 0.9

Having your top receiver (Marvin Harrison) out with a bruised knee is less of a problem when the Denver defense you're facing throws some funky coverages out there. Champ Bailey on Dallas Clark — who is a tight end in name only — is understandable. But Dre' Bly on Aaron Moorehead? Domonique Foxworth trying to cover Reggie Wayne in a zone? A quarterback of Manning's caliber will rip such mismatches to shreds.

2. Tony Romo sits to pee DAL 21/33 339 3 1 12.2 11.1 1.2

Okay, so the Brett Favre comparisons are a bit premature, but something certainly is going on here. Only Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have more value this season according on DPAR. His pocket presence seems positively prodigal for a quarterback with so few starts in the books. Nice improvisation for a 37-yard run to make the best of a bad snap against the Rams, as well.

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Man. You had such a good sig before Bubba, one that could be good throughout the season. You know, the one about Romo sits to pee having a good game. Oh well, not too late to change it back. :D

Anyway, I guess the guy that wrote the article doesn't put anything into the fact that the Rams offense did little. The Rams certainly didn't have anything going there.

TheFan

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