RI: "Crunching the numbers"

[FrFan]

Didn't see this one posted:

Crunching the numbers

Will Allensworth has graciously stepped up with a guest blog....

A look towards the Redskins salary cap future does not predict disaster, though nor does it project peaches and cream parties. The fact is that the Redskins have a lot of moneys allocated via contract for the 2008 season, more so than the CBA will allow them to spend, and that will necessitate some very difficult decisions.

First, a caveat: Redskins fans are a house divided between those that project annual "cap disaster" and those that insist the books are always in order and that the 'Skins FO will fix things no matter what with their usual "cap wizardry". Neither is true; the Redskins, like the other 31 teams in the NFL, operate under a set salary cap.

The Redskins are neither better nor worse than the other 32 teams at managing a budget within those limits, as they, like everyone else, do so successfully each year. What other teams do differently is win or lose less (or more) games. No one is above the rules.

The Redskins are identified in the media as being "aggressive" in the offseason, but nothing they spend is unaccounted for any less than the dollars and cents (and sense) expended by other teams for free agents or rookies. When the Redskins need to make money to pursue big free agents, they cut or restructure players. There's nothing unique about that strategy, practiced by every team in the league.

Now some numbers, per the Warpath's Redskins Cap page http://www.thewarpath.net/WarpathRedskinsCap.htm: As of April 30th (which precludes some spending), heading into the 2008 season the Redskins currently have over 128M tied up in contracts. We cannot predict with certainty what the salary cap will be in 2008 as (I believe) it is based on a formula per the CBA that I am unfamiliar with, though an around 7M increase is about as good place to start. From 116M in 2008 would be a safe bet. The only thing we know about the Salary Cap per the CBA is that it cannot go down.............

Link

[Mackdaddydean]

hogwash...The Redskins have it all figured out.

[Forever21]

Yeah...if there's one thing we do well...it's manipulate the salary cap...

[D-Day]

that blog has some serious issues

[Koolblue13]

I have faith in the Danny and our FO to handle the cap, I'm not worried.

[bedlamVR]

I think the ponderance outsiders put into our cap situation is overplayed . The way the Skins word the contracts often there are options and conversions that change the cap number from year to year.

Looking at the cap hits on the Warpaths site you can kind of predict who is staying and who may be cap casualties .

The Skins may opperate under the same rules as everyone else but I am sure no two teams manage the cap in exactly the same way

[pointyfootball]

hogwash...The Redskins have it all figured out.

Not sure what you're calling hogwash - he never said the Redskins are in big trouble. Actually said the skins will be fine, but they will have to make some tough decisions in who to cut/restrcture.

This section did a good job covering the pros/cons of restructuring:

"Quick caution on restructures before I wrap up this already garrulous guest blog: these never actually "save" the team money. It shifts non-guaranteed salary (which may or may not get paid) into guaranteed bonuses (which will be paid no matter what). The advantage is that a dollar spent under 2007's 109M salary cap is worth more than a dollar spent under 2008's projected 116M cap. The disadvantage is that you are adding on guaranteed money that protects a player's future salary which, more often than not, is higher than it is in the present. In the best case scenario a pure restructure of salary to guaranteed bonus simply postpones a problem. In the worst case scenario, it turns a formerly cuttable player who is getting long in tooth into an uncuttable salary monstrosity because their ever-growing pay becomes a necessary evil due to the (now) inflated cost of cutting them."

PF

[redskinsfan1201]

I am pretty sure we are not ever the salary cap as of right now.

[Mr. S]

every team does what we do pretty much, restructures and whatnot. It's not specific to us, especially in this offseason.

Also, they always fail to consider how Brunell, Springs, and Daniels could very well be gone after this season is over. Their numbers alone would save 15 million or close to it. Throw in how 2-3 players will restructure, we'll be pretty solid. I think Wynn's contract ends in 2007 as well. With a full set of draft picks, if we don't draft a d-line or guard, I will be very surprised (unless obtained during free agency which willt hen piss me off).

[chipwhich]

With a full set of draft picks, if we don't draft a d-line or guard, I will be very surprised (unless obtained during free agency which willt hen piss me off).

We NEVER draft d-lineman high. NEVER. Get used to it.

[D-Day]

Not sure what you're calling hogwash - he never said the Redskins are in big trouble. Actually said the skins will be fine, but they will have to make some tough decisions in who to cut/restrcture.

This section did a good job covering the pros/cons of restructuring:

"Quick caution on restructures before I wrap up this already garrulous guest blog: these never actually "save" the team money. It shifts non-guaranteed salary (which may or may not get paid) into guaranteed bonuses (which will be paid no matter what). The advantage is that a dollar spent under 2007's 109M salary cap is worth more than a dollar spent under 2008's projected 116M cap. The disadvantage is that you are adding on guaranteed money that protects a player's future salary which, more often than not, is higher than it is in the present. In the best case scenario a pure restructure of salary to guaranteed bonus simply postpones a problem. In the worst case scenario, it turns a formerly cuttable player who is getting long in tooth into an uncuttable salary monstrosity because their ever-growing pay becomes a necessary evil due to the (now) inflated cost of cutting them."

PF

He conveniently ignored the fact the skins build into the cap the ability to cut one or two of these players every year. It is almost a certainty that the age trimming will continue next year much as it did this year. The Salaries that are high next year for the most part are young players so restructuring them is not that big of a deal. He also failed to mention the 14 mil or so that is bonus money that will be prorated at the start of FA. Actually we are looking pretty good next year as far as I know without really looking at the cap situation next year that hard. PCinOZ will be doing a detailed cap post after the June 1st cutting is done. Look for his analysis if you want to get close to the actual numbers and the true cap situation.

[BLEED-B&G]

That blog does a good job of using a lot of words to say nothing, all of the figures are speculative and to sum it all up the blogger could have said, the skins are going to have to release some players/rework some contracts to get under the 08 cap...beep beeep beep NEWFLASH

[Smoot Point Really]

I think this spreadsheet is more confusing than it has to be:

Just have a column for the player's name, player's age, total length of current contract, base salary for each year, and total amount of guaranteed bonuses that are already owed to the player.

[leo2k2ndc]

I just thought of something that kinda might sound slow, we get so many free agents so thats why we never keep players i like that have a bad year, no homo i loved walt harris and archuleta if we gave them more then a year i think it woulda been better

[Skin Patrol]

He conveniently ignored the fact the skins build into the cap the ability to cut one or two of these players every year. It is almost a certainty that the age trimming will continue next year much as it did this year. The Salaries that are high next year for the most part are young players so restructuring them is not that big of a deal. He also failed to mention the 14 mil or so that is bonus money that will be prorated at the start of FA. Actually we are looking pretty good next year as far as I know without really looking at the cap situation next year that hard. PCinOZ will be doing a detailed cap post after the June 1st cutting is done. Look for his analysis if you want to get close to the actual numbers and the true cap situation.

How did I conveniently leave that out? I mentioned Brunell being out and the savings that accounts for, as well as Springs. I mentioned that "cuts" were one of two primary means of reducing the salary cap, and that it would be used by the Redskins (as it is by all 32 teams in the NFL). The "14 mil" you speak of is 7 mil -- go count it. That's unamortized bonuses to Betts, Daniels, Carter, etc.

EDIT: Let me get in front of this as well -- the number we're at as of now is 124M, not 128M as mentioned in that blog post. I cannot edit JLC's blog, so I could not make the necessary change having realized my error.

[Skin Patrol]

That blog does a good job of using a lot of words to say nothing, all of the figures are speculative and to sum it all up the blogger could have said, the skins are going to have to release some players/rework some contracts to get under the 08 cap...beep beeep beep NEWFLASH

Some teams do not have to restructure contracts or cut players to get under the 2008 cap (though virtually all teams will cut players anyways). I strongly doubt that all 32 teams are currently many millions over the 2008 cap.

But, as stated elsewhere, that's not the end of the world. The Redskins can get under the cap relatively painlessly so long as we don't mind ditching some players.

[ThomasRoane]

One thing will never change. The cap is Snyder's *****.

[SkinsOrlando]

How long have the Skins been in cap trouble according to the media? And how many years have we actually been in cap trouble? Snyder owns the cap.

[Skins PR]

I think the article makes a good point. So many on here think that we are masters of the salary cap (just look at some of the posts on this thread) when the reality is that every team in the league is under the cap every year. The true measure of the cap is how you use your limited money to build the best team possible and so far we have shown ourselves to be inept in that area.

[70th Week]

^^^^And that is the jist of our situation.....we can always get out of cap issues but what kind of quality we get on the field is the real issue.....

[onedrop]

That blog does a good job of using a lot of words to say nothing, all of the figures are speculative and to sum it all up the blogger could have said, the skins are going to have to release some players/rework some contracts to get under the 08 cap...beep beeep beep NEWFLASH

exactly. the guy could have simply typed "..........redskins, cap room......." and accomplished the same thing

[D-Day]

How did I conveniently leave that out? I mentioned Brunell being out and the savings that accounts for, as well as Springs. I mentioned that "cuts" were one of two primary means of reducing the salary cap, and that it would be used by the Redskins (as it is by all 32 teams in the NFL). The "14 mil" you speak of is 7 mil -- go count it. That's unamortized bonuses to Betts, Daniels, Carter, etc.

EDIT: Let me get in front of this as well -- the number we're at as of now is 124M, not 128M as mentioned in that blog post. I cannot edit JLC's blog, so I could not make the necessary change having realized my error.

What I meant by "leaving out" was not the mentioning of the couple of players cuts you said, but the fact that the skins always account for on the cap cutting those older players. You mentioned later in the blog that the restructures are just postoned money that makes the older players cutable later. I was just sayin that is not true as the skins have room to cut one or two a year. Thats all

Now count up the OB Alloc for next year as well. Those are the high side that may or may not be guaranteed but they will be spread out over the authorized years if the players met those quotas or clauses or are retained. there is the rest of the 14 mil I mentioned without even adding up any of the .$$$ amounts so it is actually more then that.

MB only saves us 3.4 mil if he is cut next year. We will still owe him 3.1 mil is outstanding bonus money.

springs will save about 5 mil if a june 1st cut and 2.5 mil if he is a regular cut.

Wynn is not signed next year so his salary is not in that 124 mil cap number already.

BL is uncuttable as we will owe him about 7.5 mil in dead cap next year.

I just think it is way to early to look at next years cap situation. Sorry

[Skin Patrol]

What I meant by "leaving out" was not the mentioning of the couple of players cuts you said, but the fact that the skins always account for on the cap cutting those older players. You mentioned later in the blog that the restructures are just postoned money that makes the older players cutable later. I was just sayin that is not true as the skins have room to cut one or two a year.

I think many fans are under the impression that the Redskins do something behind a magic curtain and the Cap comes out fine every year, and that simply isn't the case. As you've pointed out, the means by which the Redskins make cap space is the same the other 31 teams use: the CUT. I'll take full credit for redundancy, but the point needs to be made anyways: there's nothing difficult about getting under the cap so long as you have no problem getting rid of your highest paid players who, in many cases, are also starters.

Now count up the OB Alloc for next year as well. Those are the high side that may or may not be guaranteed but they will be spread out over the authorized years if the players met those quotas or clauses or are retained. there is the rest of the 14 mil I mentioned without even adding up any of the .$$$ amounts so it is actually more then that.

Assuming all players are on the roster who are currently under contract through 2008 are on the roster in 2008, the amortized bonus savings amounts to around 7M. Here are the numbers:

Phillip Daniels has 1.1M in 2008, prorated over three remaining years is 366K. That's 734K saving.

Ladell Betts has 2.1M in 2008, prorated over 5 years is 420K per year. That's 1.7M savings.

Andre Carter has 2.4M in 2008, prorated over 5 years is 480K. That's 1.92M savings.

Brandon Lloyd has 1.8M in 2008, prorated over 5 years is 360K. That's 1.44M savings.

Antwaan Randle-El has 1.5M in 2008, prorated over 5 years is 300K. That's 1.2M in savings.

MB only saves us 3.4 mil if he is cut next year. We will still owe him 3.1 mil is outstanding bonus money.

Thank you for your input, by the way. It is appreciated.

[[[ghost]]]

We don't work around the Cap, the Cap works around us. When we want to spend more, the Cap goes up.

[D-Day]

The OB ALLOC money can be spread out the same as the OB money. It is confusing and it took me awhile to grasp it.

OB ALLOC bonus is like workout bonuses, pro bowl, that if are earned then they can be spread out as well if the team wants.

The OB money you are counting is the roster/option bonus money that is automatically counted against the cap.

EX

Andre Carters Cap #'s next year are

Salary -.920

SB # - 1 mil

OB # - .667

OB ALLOC # - 2.4 mil

Total cap # = 4.987

So if he is paid all his OB Alloc money (whatever it is) then we wiill spread out his cap hit like so.

Salary .920

SB = 1 mil

OB = .133 (doubt they would spread this money out but they could)

OB ALLOC = 2.4 / by 5 yrs next year = a .480 a year

New cap total = 2.533 cap hit for next year or a savings of 2.454 -assuming they have to pay all bonus money and they spread out as much as possible.