Draft Countdown: Part II, W Times, Kiper: Landry better than Roy Williams

[Skinsinparadise]

http://www.washingtontimes.com/blogs/storyview.php?StoryID=20070418-012717-9297r&TopicsID=skins

Draft Countdown: Part II

By Ryan O'Halloran

April 18, 2007

Ten days before his version of Mardi Gras, ESPN draft expert Mel Kiper Jr. showed he was in tip-top form earlier today with a teleconference that lasted nearly two hours. And as usual, Mel delivered.

I'll be saving most of his comments for our draft stories next week, but here are some highlights.

* Kiper calls Notre Dame quarterback Brady Quinn and Oklahoma running back Adrian Peterson the two "wild cards."

"Whoever doesn't go to Cleveland [at No. 3] will drop a bit because the Browns can't take them both," he said. "If Quinn doesn't go to Cleveland, he'll be there for Minnesota at No. 7 and do the Vikings take him even though they traded up last year to draft Tavaris Jackson? Sometimes a guy falling isn't a bad thing. Look at Ben Roethlisberger in 2004 and Matt Leinart last year."

* He said this year's first round talent isn't as good as last year's star-studded first round.

"There's not much difference between the guy that goes 45 and the guy that goes 25," he said. "There are going to be some guys that go in the first round that aren't necessarily worthy."

* He is high on LSU safety LaRon Landry -- Kiper's mock draft has the Redskins taking Landry.

"He should be a Pro Bowl caliber player," he said. "He'll be better than Roy Williams, no question."

* Kiper is also high on Louisville defensive tackle Amobi Okoye, another player on the Redskins' radar screen.

"You see a lot of the same qualities in Okoye that you do in Calvin Johnson -- tremendously mature and productive week in and week out," he said. "Athletically and strength-wise, he's what you want."

* And when I asked him about the Redskins, it gave Kiper a chance to again say how much he disagrees with the team's approach to building a roster.

"The Redskins have tried to use free agency over the draft every year and it's backfired dramatically," he said. "Demphasizing the draft has been done by one team. The Redskins. Has it worked? No. ... It's got to change. I don't know what it's going to take. My philosophy has always been the draft. You have to pick and choose what veterans you bring in. Throwing away draft choices is not the way to go. I sound like a broken record because I say it every year. I just shake my head because I can't believe it continues to happen."

* Kiper thinks the Redskins should trade out of the No. 6 position even if it means they acquire only a fourth- or fifth-round selection. He's not as big a believer in the draft value chart as the Redskins are.

"Forget the chart," he said. "You don't have to worry about getting chart value. Who cares. It's a draft pick you're getting. But the attitude there is, we can't get any help in the fourth or fifth round. Sure you can. You can get a starter in the fourth round. They're not going to get chart value so if they're at six, they're staying at six."

[kramdizzle]

ive been on the landry wagon for weeks

[Forever21]

* He is high on LSU safety LaRon Landry -- Kiper's mock draft has the Redskins taking Landry.

"He should be a Pro Bowl caliber player," he said. "He'll be better than Roy Williams, no question."

better than Roy Williams? so I guess that means that Landry definetly has at least high school level coverage skills!

Honestly at what point will people stop thinking Roy Williams is good and realize he is easily one of the top five most overrated players in this league and a complete and utter coverage liability!

[mistertim]

better than Roy Williams? so I guess that means that Landry definetly has at least high school level coverage skills!

Honestly at what point will people stop thinking Roy Williams is good and realize he is easily one of the top five most overrated players in this league and a complete and utter coverage liability!

Yeah that isn't exactly a great thing. "Well he is better than this guy who sucks but everyone thinks is good".

[The Burgundy Rhino]

We need a pass rush badly. But if we don't trade down, or go DL. I actually could accept taking Landry. That might really lock up our secondary for a few years.

[jrfriedm]

* And when I asked him about the Redskins, it gave Kiper a chance to again say how much he disagrees with the team's approach to building a roster.

"The Redskins have tried to use free agency over the draft every year and it's backfired dramatically," he said. "Demphasizing the draft has been done by one team. The Redskins. Has it worked? No. ... It's got to change. I don't know what it's going to take. My philosophy has always been the draft. You have to pick and choose what veterans you bring in. Throwing away draft choices is not the way to go. I sound like a broken record because I say it every year. I just shake my head because I can't believe it continues to happen."

He had better hope that it continues to not work, other wise he could be out of a job.

[Omeletpants]

better than Roy Williams? so I guess that means that Landry definetly has at least high school level coverage skills!

Honestly at what point will people stop thinking Roy Williams is good and realize he is easily one of the top five most overrated players in this league and a complete and utter coverage liability!

Because the world is in love with monster hits

[TotalRecall]

You know what will happen if the Skins get Landry. Opposing offenses will run, run, run, run, run, run, run, run, run, run. Then eventually, Gregg Williams will move in a safety to have 8 in-the-box, then the opposing offense will pass. Hmmmm, sounds easy to me. So far, the only improvement we have on the 31st-ranked D against the run is Fletcher is better than Marshall.

Draft Okoye to clog-up the middle. If we can't stop the run, we lose for sure. It's that simple.

[lzeis24]

I would be happy with Okoye or Landry...either would benefit the Redskins. I really want to move back - I guess we'll have to wait and see who slides and who wants to move up. I'm actually really excited to watch the draft this year. This is kind of like a few years back when everyone wasn't sure if the Redskins would take Taylor of Winslow....same as today - except a few more options.

[Laxpunk2006]

He had better hope that it continues to not work, other wise he could be out of a job.

I don't see how it could affect his job status. His job is the covering the draft. There will always be a draft, and every winning team can tell you it's importance.

[ntotoro]

better than Roy Williams? so I guess that means that Landry definetly has at least high school level coverage skills!

Honestly at what point will people stop thinking Roy Williams is good and realize he is easily one of the top five most overrated players in this league and a complete and utter coverage liability!

He gets clips on ESPN for hits and anyone who gets those must be good, even if he can't cover a Junior Varsity WR.

Saying he's better than Roy Williams isn't really much of a complement. We need D-Line much more than a SS.

[Stormy]

You know what will happen if the Skins get Landry. Opposing offenses will run, run, run, run, run, run, run, run, run, run. Then eventually, Gregg Williams will move in a safety to have 8 in-the-box, then the opposing offense will pass. Hmmmm, sounds easy to me. So far, the only improvement we have on the 31st-ranked D against the run is Fletcher is better than Marshall.

Draft Okoye to clog-up the middle. If we can't stop the run, we lose for sure. It's that simple.

All excellent points. We watched it last year when we brought AA closer to the line to help a porous run defense in the front 7... and inevitably the results were the innumerable big play passes we gave up over the top as Taylor was required to cover far too much territory, and as our CBs were left isolated without help. So far, arguably the NFL's worst defensive front 7 has added one acquisition - London Fletcher. Meanwhile the completely and utterly productionless Front 4 on the DL are a year older. We need a great multipurpose DL acquisition, which means Branch at DT (or possibly Okoye). Keep in mind though, that Okoye is more of a penetrator, not a gap filler... so there's no real guarantees that he helps our interior run defense that much (as Louisville's sure was suspect with him). Conversely, Branch immediately changes the entire dynamic of the DL, just as he did in college, not just with his own production, but by the way he elevates the openings for those around him.

[Skinsinparadise]

Tough call for me. ESPN's draft magazine ranks positions and had this to say more or less about the DT position:

They compared teams that draft DT's to shore up the run and the stats from before and after the teams drafted that first round DT. And almost every team's ability to stop the run via average yards per carry DIDN'T change.

Baltimore was the notable exception but Kiper remarked Ray Lewis probably has something to do with that.

The D line was one of the positions with the most first round BUSTS. The secondary had the best record of high rounders making their mark.

So seems like the safety position is the SAFER pick, especially this year where none of the d lineman are touted as can't miss stars. Having said that our D line needs the most help. So tough call for me.

[Skinsinparadise]

As to all the posts about how three time Pro Bowler Roy Williams is a terrible safety. Well, I wish. Yeah he is a stuff the run type as opposed to coverage guy and plays a bit reckless. Does that though sound WAY different than our beloved one time Pro-Bowler Sean Taylor?

The thing about Landry that's confusing to me is some of the NFL draft sites/magazines depict him more as a coverage guy and others like Kiper say he's more a stuff the run safety. No one says though he's a disaster in either category so I gather he is pretty balanced player.

One thing that is common in most of the reports is that he is a big time leader and smart, great at positionig players, learning schemes, etc.

Edit: sorry I meant to edit this to my previous post, sorry for the two in a row from me.

[phatboy41]

ive been on the landry wagon for weeks

As have I... I remember first suggesting that we should get LaRon Landry with our pick and being scolded by everyone here hahaha, it's funny to see a lot of people noticing his talent and what he can do for our team now.

[EnFoRcEr_uPu]

* Kiper thinks the Redskins should trade out of the No. 6 position even if it means they acquire only a fourth- or fifth-round selection. He's not as big a believer in the draft value chart as the Redskins are.

"Forget the chart," he said. "You don't have to worry about getting chart value. Who cares. It's a draft pick you're getting. But the attitude there is, we can't get any help in the fourth or fifth round. Sure you can. You can get a starter in the fourth round. They're not going to get chart value so if they're at six, they're staying at six."

This doesn't make much sense to me. To say that the value of a late first round pick isn't really worth a 1st round pick, but then to say that we should trade down and not worry about chart value...that seems hypocritical to me. That's basically saying that you should trade down(accepting less than complete value) out of the #6 spot. Yet the value in this draft isn't nearly as strong once the top 1/2 of the first round is gone.

I don't get it. If the top of the draft is THAT loaded compared to the rest of it, shouldn't we be looking for MORE than chart value to trade down and ultimately OUT of the strongest portion of the draft BY FAR??

[Santana_Fan]

Because the world is in love with monster hits

horsecollaring?

[OneEyedCheshire]

I think everyone is ignoring Gregg Williams philosophy here. Do you really think he wants to spend the 6th overall pick on a D-Lineman? That's what late round picks are used for, take Golston for example. You can pick up a player in late rounds that can come in and play fairly early on, and be a long-term project.

What about Safties? Not so much. Successful defensive backs come from early picks, you can groom a db, but it is a longer and more difficult process, and there is less talent available later on as compared to the DL.

I love Amobi, but I don't want to waste the 6th pick on a position we can easily address later on, and a position which isn't as bad as people think for the Redskins (or else we would have been scrambling to sign DL's this offseason as opposed to 3 db's: Smoot, Macklin, Stoutmire).

We are going Landry or moving.

[Mr. S]

I think the draft value chart is a load of crap as well. I think people should use prior trades as a benchmark, even though many were based off that chart. Example, though I like Jason Campbell, chart wise, it was a good trade, but bottom line is, we traded a first, and lost a 3rd and 4th for him. Both of those picks could have been useful (maybe that third would have been used to trade up in the 2nd last year for Rocky, instead of giving up a 2nd this year.

Anyways, this is not a point about our bad trades. I just don't buy into the draft value chart. A high third to move down around 5-6 spots is worth it, especially due to the deep d-line pool this year, or with safety Reggie Nelson also being available.

[cphil006]

Mel Kiper has been wrong believe it or not. More wrong than right and let's see his post draft analysis and see who thinks is going to be a big time player and the watch them not be.

[Skinsinparadise]

I think everyone is ignoring Gregg Williams philosophy here. Do you really think he wants to spend the 6th overall pick on a D-Lineman? That's what late round picks are used for, take Golston for example. You can pick up a player in late rounds that can come in and play fairly early on, and be a long-term project. What about Safties? Not so much. Successful defensive backs come from early picks, you can groom a db, but it is a longer and more difficult process, and there is less talent available later on as compared to the DL. I love Amobi, but I don't want to waste the 6th pick on a position we can easily address later on, and a position which isn't as bad as people think for the Redskins (or else we would have been scrambling to sign DL's this offseason as opposed to 3 db's: Smoot, Macklin, Stoutmire).

I think Gregg would and still might if he felt that the D lineman was a stud. The issue here is -- is there a huge difference between lets say Okoye and Branch or Harrell? Adams versus Anderson, Carriker or Spencer? Seems like there are differences but not huge so why not trade down and get multiple players in the draft.

Getting Golston though in the 6th round was more of the exception than the rule as for us finding gems in the last rounds. We've really struggled getting good players late in the draft. However, we haven't been bad with rounds 1-3. In those rounds we should be able to get some good d lineman but I doubt Gregg's thinking we will have plenty of top tier D line to choose from in rounds 5-7.

[RedskinzOwnU]

Kiper said some very intelligent things about us. It's really shocking that the front office hasn't learned by now. Also, I agree about the chart. It's stupid. If we can trade down and only pick up a 3rd instead of a 2nd - do it. Although, in this particular draft, I would not trade down for only a 4th or a 5th only because the talent in this draft is so top-heavy.

[KDawg]

Landry will be better than Williams. He also may be better than Taylor, and I think Taylor is one of the top safeties in the league. Obviously, I don't know that, and he very well may not be in Taylor's league. But the bottom line is, I think, Landry is going to be a baller.

[deejaydana]

"Demphasizing the draft has been done by one team. The Redskins. Has it worked? No. ... It's got to change. I don't know what it's going to take."

Finally I agree and endorse something out of Kiper's mouth. I'll tell you when we'll change our philosophy: when we finish worse than 5-11 the next 2 years, which is completely possible (as much as I don't want it to happen). I am excited about a #6 selection but let's face it, you win the way San Diego and New England have done it: by adding DEPTH. We can't ever do that with the way we work the personnel angle.

[ntotoro]

Mel Kiper has been wrong believe it or not. More wrong than right and let's see his post draft analysis and see who thinks is going to be a big time player and the watch them not be.

His average in the first round is particularly bad.