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FO: Predicting rookie QB success


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FootballOutsiders on using college stat analysis to predict NFL success: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2006/03/23/ramblings/stat-analysis/3774/

Summary: Author isn't trying to replace scouting (indeed he says his system is useless without scouts -- the system is really meant to be the 2nd line of analysis, after the scouts have identified who they think are the top QBs, the system then tries to narrow down which of those are most likely to succeed).

The author found that the 2 college metrics that are most strongly associated with professional success are college starts and completion %. This bodes very nicely for Jason Campbell, who had 40 starts and a career completion % of ~64% at Auburn.

Note: I'm not affiliated with FO in any way; I just read them regularly and since I rarely see links to their stuff here I go ahead and post the ones of interest to other Skins fans.

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