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Perspective on our Offense


MartinC

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I have been reading a lot of posts talking about how we need to revamp our offense (actually 99% of them actually mean our passing game) sign such and such WR, install the West Coast system and or get a new QB.

I agree - as does most of the known world - that we need to upgrade or #2 WR spot. Lets assume Patten comes back - I would be happier if he was the #3 and we had a bigger guy at #2 who could run possesion routes drawing some coverage away from Moss and Cooley.

However lets just be realistic about what production we should expect from this slot opposite Moss with Cooley also in the line up.

Last year we ran 525 running plays and 481 passing plays. 481 divided by 16 = 30 passes per game. We completed 58% of these thats 17 completions a game.

Of these 17 completions Moss averaged just over 5 per game and Cooley 4.5 - lets say they got 5 per game each. Thats 10 leaving 7 completions to go around the other WR's TE's and RBs'. Realistically you are looking at your #2 WR getting say 2-3 balls a game and your #3 getting 1-2. Of course an upgrade at WR may increase the completion percentage but only by a ball or 2.

So what I hear you say.

Bottom line unless we are going to significantly alter our philosophy of being run first and increase our attempts per game OR stop throwing as much to Moss or Cooley (bad idea in my mind) the production of the other WR in our system is always going to be modest - say 35-40 balls and 500 yards per season (which is about the pace Patten was on before he got hurt).

We do not want to put too much cap space in a position which is getting that type of production. So forget TO or Reggie Wayne.

What we did this year on offense was overall a BIG improvement on the year before. What we need this offseason is to improve again what we have with both personnel and schemes and become more consistent NOT throw it all out the window and start again.

Have some faith in Joe guys.

:helmet:

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If anyone balmes Joe Gibbs for failure then they don't know the Redskins. I have faith in him and never waver from that. True last year was hard with the enemic offense we had, but we need Joe Gibbs guys and maybe this process might take longer to come around than last time in the 1980's. I have faith it will and think this off season is going to be dynamic. We need some important position players like punter, place kicker (if they stick with Hall he needs to get the kickoffs in the endzone!), another OL or two, a beast on DE, and most important another top receiver or two.

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I have been reading a lot of posts talking about how we need to revamp our offense (actually 99% of them actually mean our passing game) sign such and such WR, install the West Coast system and or get a new QB.

I agree - as does most of the known world - that we need to upgrade or #2 WR spot. Lets assume Patten comes back - I would be happier if he was the #3 and we had a bigger guy at #2 who could run possesion routes drawing some coverage away from Moss and Cooley.

However lets just be realistic about what production we should expect from this slot opposite Moss with Cooley also in the line up.

Last year we ran 525 running plays and 481 passing plays. 481 divided by 16 = 30 passes per game. We completed 58% of these thats 17 completions a game.

Of these 17 completions Moss averaged just over 5 per game and Cooley 4.5 - lets say they got 5 per game each. Thats 10 leaving 7 completions to go around the other WR's TE's and RBs'. Realistically you are looking at your #2 WR getting say 2-3 balls a game and your #3 getting 1-2. Of course an upgrade at WR may increase the completion percentage but only by a ball or 2.

So what I hear you say.

Bottom line unless we are going to significantly alter our philosophy of being run first and increase our attempts per game OR stop throwing as much to Moss or Cooley (bad idea in my mind) the production of the other WR in our system is always going to be modest - say 35-40 balls and 500 yards per season (which is about the pace Patten was on before he got hurt).

We do not want to put too much cap space in a position which is getting that type of production. So forget TO or Reggie Wayne.

What we did this year on offense was overall a BIG improvement on the year before. What we need this offseason is to improve again what we have with both personnel and schemes and become more consistent NOT throw it all out the window and start again.

Have some faith in Joe guys.

:helmet:

This year was a big improvement over last year but all you have to do is look at Joe Gibb's old offenses to know that he wants more out of the passing game, especially from the 2 and 3 recievers. If I'm not mistaken he had offenses with 3 recievers over 1000 yards before (maybe only two but I think 3). The point is, if a defense has to fear both our starting recievers, it makes it much easier to get the ball to Moss and Cooley as well as making it harder to stack the box against Portis. While I agree with you that we don't need to throw it all out the window and start again, with one solid #2 reciever opposite Moss this offense starts to become real scary. Otherwise, I think all we need on O is depth. Our offensive line is seriously lacking in depth right now, especially with Ray Brown retired. We essentially wasted the whole 3rd quarter against the Seahawks because Raymer couldn't block ANYBODY. He was terrible and cost our offense oppurtunities to get that game close again. I would have to say that for most areas on our team the major concern is with depth, no with the starters.

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Also, Coach Joey needs to shore up our OL options.... we can't be reduced to choose between 99yr old Ray Brown & 50 IQ Corey 'brain freeze' Raymer once 1 lineman gets injured. Also, Ledel Betts did not show up during crunch. Portis has been playing hurt for the last 2 or 3 weeks... yet Betts can't step in and pick up the slack. During the last 2 SB's Gibbs won, his back up RB (timmy smith & ricky ervins) off the bench played significant roles towards the success. Betts did not get it done in the playoffs. Sure, he got a few chances, but he showed nothing during that time. Finally, we need one more NFL WR and one pass rushing DE. In any event, we are on the right path and for one offseason in a million years, I can relax knowing that with a few correct moves, we'll be in contention for the SB.

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The use of the stats is great but I would raise expectations a bit.

First, the completion percentages. 58% is not Gibbs football. He is looking for 65% or so which would be an increase of 2.5 completions a game with the current numbers. If those completions when to WRs (as many here would argue they should) that is an additional 38 yards per game which is 3 first downs. Three more first downs equals 9 more offensive plays per game. At our current rate, that is 4 more passes and 5 more rushes per game. If we assume a 65% completion rate then those 4 more pass attempts equal 2.6 more pass completions. The point here is that success breeds success and those additional balls for the #2 and #3 WRs are there if we just raise the completion percentage a bit and play real Gibbs football.

Second, scoring out of this position. Moss was the only WR to score a TD on offense all season. The only one. Defenses did not have to worry about any other WRs because they were not a threat. This has to change and not just in the redzone. Compare this with other teams in our conference: TB had 3 WRs with TDs, Seattle had 3, Chicago had 2, Dallas had 3 and Carolina (the ultimate one WR show) had 5 WRs in the End Zone this year. We need someone other than Moss to score on the big play. It is not just a matter of catches but catches that cause damage. Our WRs have to score with the ball or teams will continue to stack the box against Portis. It is that simple. Our #2 and #3 have to hurt folks when they get the chance.

The goal here is more offensive plays and more points from those plays.

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The use of the stats is great but I would raise expectations a bit.

First, the completion percentages. 58% is not Gibbs football. He is looking for 65% or so which would be an increase of 2.5 completions a game with the current numbers. If those completions when to WRs (as many here would argue they should) that is an additional 38 yards per game which is 3 first downs. Three more first downs equals 9 more offensive plays per game. At our current rate, that is 4 more passes and 5 more rushes per game. If we assume a 65% completion rate then those 4 more pass attempts equal 2.6 more pass completions. The point here is that success breeds success and those additional balls for the #2 and #3 WRs are there if we just raise the completion percentage a bit and play real Gibbs football.

Second, scoring out of this position. Moss was the only WR to score a TD on offense all season. The only one. Defenses did not have to worry about any other WRs because they were not a threat. This has to change and not just in the redzone. We need someone other than Moss to score on the big play. It is not just a matter of catches but catches that cause damage. Our WRs have to score with the ball or teams will continue to stack the box against Portis. It is that simple. Our #2 and #3 have to hurt folks when they get the chance.

The goal here is more offensive plays and more points from those plays.

Good points and I do think that an upgrade at WR will raise the competion percentage but as you say that is only a couple more catches per game. In terms of total plays from scrimmage we already were towards the top of the league in that category and had a great time of possesion edge as we were very good at moving the chains through effective running and keeping out of 3rd and long.

Not sure we can expect to see many more snaps through improved play from the #2 WR.

Your point about a scoring threat is right on though which is why I'd like the #2 to be a bigger target to give another option in the red zone.

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The use of the stats is great but I would raise expectations a bit.

First, the completion percentages. 58% is not Gibbs football. He is looking for 65% or so which would be an increase of 2.5 completions a game with the current numbers. If those completions when to WRs (as many here would argue they should) that is an additional 38 yards per game which is 3 first downs. Three more first downs equals 9 more offensive plays per game. At our current rate, that is 4 more passes and 5 more rushes per game. If we assume a 65% completion rate then those 4 more pass attempts equal 2.6 more pass completions. The point here is that success breeds success and those additional balls for the #2 and #3 WRs are there if we just raise the completion percentage a bit and play real Gibbs football.

Second, scoring out of this position. Moss was the only WR to score a TD on offense all season. The only one. Defenses did not have to worry about any other WRs because they were not a threat. This has to change and not just in the redzone. We need someone other than Moss to score on the big play. It is not just a matter of catches but catches that cause damage. Our WRs have to score with the ball or teams will continue to stack the box against Portis. It is that simple. Our #2 and #3 have to hurt folks when they get the chance.

The goal here is more offensive plays and more points from those plays.

I completely agree with you. Even if the #2 receiver only catches 2-3 balls a game, the fact that he CAN catch these passes is the biggest positive. Teams won't be able to continually roll the safety to Moss if the #2 and #3 guys can also burn them.

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Not sure we can expect to see many more snaps through improved play from the #2 WR.

I am actually not talking about improved play at the #2 spot so much as improved QB play. We had guys running open that were either not seen or when they were seen they were missed or the ball was delivered late enough that a defender was allowed to recover to make a play. That throw to Moss late in the 4th on Saturday comes to mind where if the ball had been thrown just a half second sooner Boulware would not have been in time to break it up and the Skins score.

The increase in completion percentage actually works out to 5.1 more completions a game due to the extra number of plays run. That is a lot of balls. In fact, over the course of a 16 game season that is what Moss had by himself this season. Consider that for a while and see if it does not bring a smile to your face.

And I don't want to just be near the top in number of plays run. I want to be the top team in the league in this catagory. The longer Williams defense has to rust the better it will be.

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Both the WR and QB positions need to be upgraded. Moss was TRIPLE COVERED at times in the playoffs -- that is unheard of in the NFL. But I think you can't overlook the fact that Brunell is just too old to make it through an entire season as a starter -- his body breaks down and his play suffers greatly. It wasn't a coincidence that his final 3 games of the season were also his worst. With Brunell at the healm in 2006, I have no doubt that the team could compete for an NFC East title; when he is healthy, he is very solid. But I give him maybe a 20% chance of making it into the playoffs with enough left in the tank to take the team to the Super Bowl. At this point in his career, he would be an excellent back-up; he would be very capable at coming in for a few games, or even taking over late in the season if the starter goes down. But I don't think he has the upside that (maybe) Ramsey or Campbell does. This is the oldest and most difficult situation a coach faces: stick with the savvy vet who is solid but no longer capable of being spectacular, or roll with the punches of going to the younger guy with the potential of being great. I hope that Gibbs opens this position up to competition and gives the young guys a decent shot at winning the job. I don't think Ramsey has played his best football yet and could be a "Mark Rypien" in waiting. And I could see great things from Campbell with his mobility and accuracy.

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I like everyone else, believe that we need a #2 receiver to help Santana Moss out. I think a different variety of plays could be drawn up also. I am not blaming Gibbs or the coaching staff, but on 3 and 2, 3 and 3 this offense continued to run the same playaction bootleg pass over and over again. I do think the offense will make adjustments and will have more down the field opportunities will players other than Moss. The offense is good, but next year it will be even better, to go along with the great defense.

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