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Numbers "re-crunched" - A response to Seahawkfan....


diesel22

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Here's a few more numbers that you may have forgot to "crunch".

Seahawks 8-0 Home

Redskins 4-4 Away

Seahawks 452 PF

Redskins 359 PF

Seahawks 271 PA

Redskins 293 PA

Now you can hang your hat on that whole strength of schedule arguement, but that is pretty weak in my opinion. Consider this, you let the Raiders come into your house and win. If that doesn't prove the old saying 'on any given Sunday' I don't know what would. There are no easy wins or gimmee's in the NFL. Any time a team wins 13 games and 11 of them in a row, you know they are pretty good damn team.

If the Redskins win it would be a huge upset. Things like that happen, like the Raiders beating the Redskins at FedEx, but nobody could honestly predict it.

It's funny, but in a HUGE way, your argument reinforces mine. I think the PF/PA categories aren't worth spending a whole lot of time on because I really hope you don't think you guys are gonna run the score up on us. We went to Denver and KC (both of which are notoriously tough places to play) and faced two of the top offenses in the league. Each time our defense surrendered 21 points (KC also scored on a fumble return) and they were very upset about that! This defense has a ton of pride and I will be shocked if you put up over 20.

Now....on to the road and away records - where the bulk of your argument is found. Thanks for bringing this to my attention, as I obviously overlooked this important category. So here goes.....

Seattle home games:

Opponent (Opponent's Road record)

Atlanta (4-4)

Arizona (2-6)

Houston (0-8)

Dallas (4-4)

St Louis (3-5)

NYG (4-4)

SF (1-7)

Indy (7-1) * Let's note that this Indy team was a mere shell of itself with almost every key starter not playing and many not even making the trip to Seattle (not to mention that this was the first game played after the Dungy tragedy)

Washington away games:

Opponent (Opponent's Home record)

Dallas (4-4)

Denver (8-0)

KC (7-1)

Philly (4-4)

TB (6-2)

St Louis (3-5)

Arizona (3-5)

*Now I could go on and on about a.) The tuck rule in Denver, b.) How our "anemic" offense actually outgained KC at Arrowhead, c.) The phantom 2-pt conversion for TB........but I won't. Those games went down as L's so that is where I put them. Now.....let's do the math......

Seattle Opponents' Combined Road Record: 25-39 (39%)

Washington Opponents Combined Home Record: 42-22 (66%)

I put it in a bigger font so maybe it would get your attention. We played maybe the toughest road schedule in the entire NFL this year by going into Denver, KC, and TB - in addition o our divisional road games.....and were in position to win every game except for one (NYG).

Seattle hosted powerhouses such as: Arizona, Houston, St Louis and SF.

Out of their entire home schedule, they played ONE team who posted a winning record on the road. That team was the Colts (which I mentioned earlier basically sent their practice squad to face Seattle)

Exactly how many games do you think we would have lost at home with this schedule? Not many.....

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So where are you at "seahawkfan"? Does this help you see more clearly now?

What about my fellow skins fans? Do this sound legit or do you think I should drop the argument? I am just a pragmatic thinker and I need solid evidence to accept almost anything........

:feedback:

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I'm a firm believer that statistics never tell the whole story.

That being said, this is about as strong an analysis as one could do. Combined with your other thread, diesel22, you've done a terrific job identifying exactly why no one is scared of the Seahawks.

Add one part muffin schedule, two parts overconfidence, and you get a sure recipe for disaster.

:point2sky

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I am just happy that Springs will be playing which means that for the first time in a very long time we will have our ENTIRE secondary playing and somewhat healthy. Which means one thing. Williams D playbook will be wide open.

Now if Gibbs can see his way clear and bench Brunell if he sucks after the first few pocessions we have a great chance to win this game. Lets face it guys 120 yards on Offense will not do it unless we get 6 turnovers on D.

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Here are some Alexander stats to give us some confidence:

Out of 16 games, Alexander gained over 100 yards 11 times.

Heres the games he didnt get there:

Week 1: LOSS to Jags (73 yds)

Week 4: LOSS to SKINS!!! (98 yds incl. 34 yarder in 4th qtr)

Week 7: W against Cowgirls (won on last second INT as dallas was driving for OT)- (61 yds)

Week 13: W against Eagulls (42-0 beatdown where he sat down before game over) (49 yds)

Week 17: LOSS to Green Bay (73 yds)

so...if we shut him down, we have a good shot at winning

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God! One game with 120 yds. of offense and some of you are ready to bench brunnell. Listen, Ramsey is not the answer. Barely any playing time. Inexperience in a playoff game. I'm not down on Ramsey, but if you put him in(except in the case of an injury) your just waiting for a disater to happen. Brunnel is hurting, but with his experience in playoff games, he's not going to panic and try to force passes into double coverage and such. The seahawks defence is respectable at best which should open up our ground game, keeping injured brunnell from having to pass too much.

You go with what got you to where your at now. HAIL TO THE REDSKINS!

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God! One game with 120 yds. of offense and some of you are ready to bench brunnell. Listen, Ramsey is not the answer. Barely any playing time. Inexperience in a playoff game. I'm not down on Ramsey, but if you put him in(except in the case of an injury) your just waiting for a disater to happen. Brunnel is hurting, but with his experience in playoff games, he's not going to panic and try to force passes into double coverage and such. The seahawks defence is respectable at best which should open up our ground game, keeping injured brunnell from having to pass too much.

You go with what got you to where your at now. HAIL TO THE REDSKINS!

well that was pretty damn random - this has to do with Seattle's weak schedule in what way?

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When is the last time the Seawhores won a playoff game? When was the last time Matt Hasslesucks won a playoff game? When is the last time Mike Holmgren won a playoff game outside of GB? When teams are so evenly matched it comes down to coaching. Our staff roster reads like a an allstar list of coaches. The Seahawks coaches are way overrated and will not be as prepared for this game as one JJG will be. The skins now know how to win and the formula will not be shaken in the Pac NW this weekend. Go Skins.

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It's funny, but in a HUGE way, your argument reinforces mine. I think the PF/PA categories aren't worth spending a whole lot of time on because I really hope you don't think you guys are gonna run the score up on us. We went to Denver and KC (both of which are notoriously tough places to play) and faced two of the top offenses in the league. Each time our defense surrendered 21 points (KC also scored on a fumble return) and they were very upset about that! This defense has a ton of pride and I will be shocked if you put up over 20.

Now....on to the road and away records - where the bulk of your argument is found. Thanks for bringing this to my attention, as I obviously overlooked this important category. So here goes.....

Seattle home games:

Opponent (Opponent's Road record)

Atlanta (4-4)

Arizona (2-6)

Houston (0-8)

Dallas (4-4)

St Louis (3-5)

NYG (4-4)

SF (1-7)

Indy (7-1) * Let's note that this Indy team was a mere shell of itself with almost every key starter not playing and many not even making the trip to Seattle (not to mention that this was the first game played after the Dungy tragedy)

Washington away games:

Opponent (Opponent's Home record)

Dallas (4-4)

Denver (8-0)

KC (7-1)

Philly (4-4)

TB (6-2)

St Louis (3-5)

Arizona (3-5)

*Now I could go on and on about a.) The tuck rule in Denver, b.) How our "anemic" offense actually outgained KC at Arrowhead, c.) The phantom 2-pt conversion for TB........but I won't. Those games went down as L's so that is where I put them. Now.....let's do the math......

Seattle Opponents' Combined Road Record: 25-39 (39%)

Washington Opponents Combined Home Record: 42-22 (66%)

I put it in a bigger font so maybe it would get your attention. We played maybe the toughest road schedule in the entire NFL this year by going into Denver, KC, and TB - in addition o our divisional road games.....and were in position to win every game except for one (NYG).

Seattle hosted powerhouses such as: Arizona, Houston, St Louis and SF.

Out of their entire home schedule, they played ONE team who posted a winning record on the road. That team was the Colts (which I mentioned earlier basically sent their practice squad to face Seattle)

Exactly how many games do you think we would have lost at home with this schedule? Not many.....

Dude....get a job.

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Dude....get a job.

Why would you say that? Honestly, what reason on Earth could you have for saying such a meaningless, odd comment?

I have a job. I work a lot. I get paid a lot. Yet I enjoy this site, so I post here when I can.

What's your point?

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Guys--guess what--crunch all the numbers you want, but this gets settled on Saturday at 4:30!

Believe me, I am totally aware of that. Still, I just wanted skins fans to have some data to back themselves up if they are called out as to why they are confident about this game. Contrary to public opinion, we have every reason to be confident........

And to the person with the get a job comment, I have a job and "big surprise" it is in the world of football" :)

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Sure, they played plenty of cream puffs, but they only lost to two playoff teams and to Green Bay in a meaningless week 17 game. They beat who they are supposed to beat. Now we get to find out if they're supposed to beat us this time around. HTTR.

Not really sure what you are saying. Yes, they lost to 2 playoff teams but guess how many the played during their ENTIRE season........4 !!! So, you could say they are 2-2, but are you really willing to give them the Indy game? I sure as hell am not - considering they were playing the Colts practice squad !! So - to be fair - I won't count that as a loss or a win, I'll just throw it out. So.....how have they done in meaningful games against playoff teams? They are 1-2......with their only win coming at home bc Jay Feely decided to miss 3 game winning FGs. The Giants had them by the throat ON THE ROAD. And we all know how good the Giants are on the road.....:doh:

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Great analysis and comments. Let not forget that Gibbs is coaching the Skins. Based on Gibbs past record, he Apparently does not have a habbit of loosing playoff games. That initself should scare the Seattle team. The Skins will be ready and will bring their so called "A," game. Even if that means taking a early lead and sitting on it, like they did in Tampa.

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Great analysis and comments. Let not forget that Gibbs is coaching the Skins. Based on Gibbs past record, he Apparently does not have a habbit of loosing playoff games. That initself should scare the Seattle team. The Skins will be ready and will bring their so called "A," game. Even if that means taking a early lead and sitting on it, like they did in Tampa.

Thanks a lot. Yea - I kind of assumed people know how legendary coach is in the tournament. His win total is right behind Shula and Landry and is closing fast. As far as sitting on a lead, I don't think I would be quite as quick to do that this week bc Seattle is considerably more explosive than TB

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