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Skins vs Seagulls: I've Crunched the Numbers !!


diesel22

Which back up do you put in at Defensive End?  

37 members have voted

  1. 1. Which back up do you put in at Defensive End?

    • Aki Jones
    • Nic Clemons
    • Cedric Killings
    • Ryan Boschetti
    • Other/Shake up the D line


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I had this gut feeling that Tampa would pose more of a challenge to us than Seattle. I realize that almost the entire country expects us to lose this week (we are currently 9pt dogs) but I have a good feeling so I thought I would crunch the numbers and see just how we stack up. If I am gonna predict the Skins I need some ammo to back myself up, right? Well - here goes....

COMMON OPPONENTS

Arizona, St Louis, San Francisco, Dallas, New York Giants, and Philadelphia

Record Against Common Opponents

Seattle: 9-0

Washington: 8-1

* Note that there are only two teams on this list with winning records (Dallas and NYG). While we had home and away games with these two opponents, Seattle played each only once - and each game was in Seattle.

OUT OF CONFERENCE OPPONENTS

Seattle: Jacksonville, Houston, Tennessee, Indianapolis

Combined Record of Opponents: 32-32 (50%)

Washington: Denver, Kansas City, Oakland, San Diego

Combined Record of Opponents: 36-28 (56%)

*Note that Seattle only played ONE opponent with a winning record in a game which mattered. Although they did play the Colts, it was in a game that meant nothing to the Colts and Indy sat most of their key players. Due to this, I was tempted to take Indy out of the equation, which would have of course DRASTICALLY lowered the winning % of the group. During the course of Washington's out of conference schedule, every team we played (including Oak) was in playoff contention at the time and needed the win.

DIVISION OPPONENTS

Seattle: (6-0 against division) 30-66 (31%)

Washington: (5-1 against division) 52-44 (54%)

*This category doesn't need a lot of explanation. It is painfully obvious to anyone that Washington plays in a MUCH tougher division and a 5-1 record in the NFC East is much more impressive than a 6-0 mark in the NFC West. Also worth noting is that Seattle's victories over Dallas and NYG both went down to the wire and were BOTH played in Seattle. Our home games vs these two opponents resulted in (35-7 and 35-20) blowouts.

OVERALL OPPONENTS

Seattle: 106-150 (41%)

Washington: 138-118 (54%)

"I realize that a lot of people get on here and say "Redskins rule -- we are gonna shock the world...yadayadayada." ....then you ask them to back it up and they can't. Well, here is my attempt to show that we have every reason to be confident heading into this matchup. Thanks for taking the time to read this as it took me quite a while to put together......GO SKINS!!!

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Good job Deisel!

another way to put it,

Seattle played 11 teams with losing record.

Skins played 11 teams with winning record.

If you only knew me you would know that would be way too simple -- it wouldnt be me if I didnt over-analyze the crap out of EVERYTHING !! :)

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Great post diesel! I think this post shows that the game will be a close one, which is all you can ask for when playing the number 1 seed in your conference on the road. If we keep it tight towards the end, I trust our D (and our offense for that matter) to pull it out. Two biggest keys to the game in my book are turnovers and 3rd down %. I think the team that wins those two stat categories wins the game.

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I want to give you props for your analysis. The only mistake you made was saying that the Seahawks are in the NFC South, but I knew what you meant. Just like Indy, the Seahawks played a mediocre schedule and racked up a bunch of wins because of it. Its not their fault, just the way the scheduling was. I remember before the season started, I looked at the Redskins' schedule and my first reaction was "Damn!" Seattle didn't play the heavyweights in either the AFC or NFC. We did and had to do two in a row on the road!

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Great post diesel! I think this post shows that the game will be a close one, which is all you can ask for when playing the number 1 seed in your conference on the road. If we keep it tight towards the end, I trust our D (and our offense for that matter) to pull it out. Two biggest keys to the game in my book are turnovers and 3rd down %. I think the team that wins those two stat categories wins the game.

Absolutely agree -- we have to be able to convert our 3rd downs but part of that is being more productive on 1st and 2nd downs (setting up easier conversions). I also think a HUGE factor will be our D-Lines ability to pressure #8 without getting help from blitzers.

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I want to give you props for your analysis. The only mistake you made was saying that the Seahawks are in the NFC South, but I knew what you meant. Just like Indy, the Seahawks played a mediocre schedule and racked up a bunch of wins because of it. Its not their fault, just the way the scheduling was. I remember before the season started, I looked at the Redskins' schedule and my first reaction was "Damn!" Seattle didn't play the heavyweights in either the AFC or NFC. We did and had to do two in a row on the road!

Ahh yes, thanks -- it has been corrected. I assure you that I used the records from the team's in the West when I crunched the numbers though.....

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Nice work on the research.

The key to winning this game is identical to the blueprint we used against the Giants. Shut down the star RB, and force the QB to win the game against our secondary. Assuming we have ST in the game, we will have our secondary at its healthiest its been in a long time with Springs, Rogers, Taylor, Clark, and Harris all available and playing.

I have great faith in Portis and the "O" to show up against the Hawks D... and even more faith in our "D" against the Hawks "O". Can't wait to see it go down :)

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Great number crunching...gotta be "that guy" though...all this proves is what we all know. The Redskins are battle-tested after coming through the (once again) toughest division in the NFL. Can they beat Seattle? Sure...they have done it before, but, Gibbs willing the whole team will show up to play!

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No one else with any thoughts? Does this encourage/discourage you? Is there anything on here you didn't already know? Anything you think I should have included? :feedback:

20-17?

Just kidding man. Nice post. I have a good feeling about this game, and like many others I wondered why I worried more about Tampa than Seattle. You helped clarify things a little.

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Great Post and analysis. The one thing that you did not take in account was that the Skins now are playing injured. In addition the Seahawks are rested and are playing at home. Playing the hawks at their stadium is a little scary. However, like you I believe the Skins have the potential to play. I just hope Portis is healthy.

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Ahh yes, thanks -- it has been corrected. I assure you that I used the records from the team's in the West when I crunched the numbers though.....

And to add on to what I said earlier...the Seahawks had a cake walk schedule. The good teams they played were at home. They play in the weak NFC West. Garranteed six wins. The skins play in the East...every game is hard faught.

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Another encouraging factor is the history of the series:

-The Redskins are 9-4 against the Seahawks all time.

-The Redskins have won 4 straight against the Seahawks.

-Gibbs is 5-0 all time against the Seahawks.

-Mike Holmgrem is 0-4 against the Redskins.

Given these trends and the strength of schedule factors you noted, it surprises me that the Seahawks are 9 point favorites. I understand they will be at home and well rested, but The Redskins have momentum and history on their side.

And of course, there is the most obvious point: We have already beaten them once. Gibbs has a history of playing an opponenet better the second-go-round.

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We only had 6 common opponents, right? NFCE and NFCW...How do you get 9-0 and 8-1?

EDIT -- okay, you're counting the divisions twice...I guess you have to do that. :doh: my bad. Nice analysis.

No prob -- I can see how you would think that at first glance and thanks for the compliment -- the #'s don't lie and we DEFINATELY have a chance to pull this out

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Great Post and analysis. The one thing that you did not take in account was that the Skins now are playing injured. In addition the Seahawks are rested and are playing at home. Playing the hawks at their stadium is a little scary. However, like you I believe the Skins have the potential to play. I just hope Portis is healthy.

I gotta agree about the health concerns too. If we were healthy I would have much more confidnece in our boys, but now the injuries are piling up, and it's making me nervous. Still think we can pull out a victory tho over the gulls'

go skins :point2sky:point2sky

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