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One Dollar, your opinion please


scottb

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I have read your "Nostradamus" response on several occasions, and I curious about what you think would be too much to give up to have signed Gruden.

I do believe he is an outstanding coach and will leave a good imprint upon the franchise. Nevertheless, to avoid waiting one year and compete with another bidder, the Bucs gave up 2 1s, 2 2s and 7 (or 8) million dollars.

Considering that they could have used the 7/8 mil as a signing bonus to lure him on top of whatever salary they agreed upon this year, I can't imagine anyone else competing. In fact, I think that scenario would have made him the 2nd highest paid HC in the NFL just behind SOS.

However, I know you don't agree with this logic. So I have to ask, what (in your opinion ) would have been too much to give up to wait a year and then bid for his services.

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Not sure why you didn't PM me with this question but since you left it on the board I'll respond here.

First off forget about the "wait a year for his services" route. There would be no guarantee that he would be available, there would be too many variables to thwart a future deal, like if he wins a superbowl with Oakland in that year, if other owners oubid the Glazers for him (like if Spurrier flops and Danny wants him), if the interim coach the Bucs would have got does well etc. etc.

Especially after Parcells backed down the Glazers would never trust another coach saying he will be the coach in a future date. Think hard about it and tell me if YOU think it would have been a wise thing to wait and HOPE that Gruden was available.

About the draft picks. Tampa has been building the team over the last decade with very high draft picks, we had two first round picks in 1995, 1996, and 1997 and two 2nd round picks in 1998. In 96 & 97 those were high picks. They also have a GM and scouts that find diamonds in the rough also like Lynch (3rd rounder) Barber (3rd rounder) and Jackson (4th rounder) and Karl Williams (College FA)

The picks Oakland got were late 1st & 2nd rounders and next year they get a 1st which again will be a late one and the year after that they get a 2nd will be late also. I do not see the Bucs having a losing season the next two years.

If there was no free agency the picks would have more weight. But the money the Bucs saved from a huge signing bonus for just the 1st rounder they got Pittman, McCardell, Dilger etc. By the time the older FA get out the Bucs would have developed thier now young players and will still have picks 2-7 next year and 1,3-7 the following year.

The cash (8 mil) does not affect the cap it was pocket money of the Glazers so that is not an issue. Since the Glazers got the Bucs they NEVER turned down any FA that the coaching staff wanted to go after. They pay up when asked. WORLD of difference from Culverhouse.

Is Gruden worth it? From this fans point of view, yes, just from what I see already. My opinion could change depending on what develops in the next 3-5 years since I think it will take at least 5 years to see if the 4 picks we lost do anything or if Oakland wins a Superbowl before Tampa since the deal, after all that would be the deciding factor right?

And finally to put it in perspective, ask Patriot fans if they think the traded draft picks were worth getting Belichek. :)

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I'm not debating your position since it is all subjective and based with assumptions (either pro or con). However, you didn't answer the question. What I am curious about (and I can't explain why) is what YOU personally think would have been too much to have made the deal. What would be the straw that would have made you say "sorry...pass".

Sorry. I guess I should have PMed but I have but one brain cell and half of it is used to control bodily functions. When I was constructing the question I had the urge to piss...well you get the picture.

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A Ditka like trade for Ricky Williams. (an entire draft in one year)

That would be too much, since we can get good players in rounds 3-7 (i.e Marquise Walker in the 3rd this year)

Does that answer it for ya? Four picks spread out over 3 years is well worth it for what we needed and what we got as I explained above.

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One Dollar - I think you're taking the wrong route here. The compensation for Gruden was astronomical. You *have* to look a the compensation for what it *is*. I'm not going to give you the benefit of hindsight here.

Regardless of what the Raiders or any other team does with the two first-round picks, two second-round picks and $8 million... first and second-round picks are generally considered/expected to yield *starting* talent. And $8 million is enough money to sign a marquee free-agent. Any football fan knows that. Essentially, that amounts to potentially 5 starters... 3 of which *should* have first-round status/talent. That's a pretty darn good foundation for any team... or any unit (ie. offense/defense).

And I don't believe there's any precedent for a coach being worth the equivalent of 5 *starting* calibre players. Regardless of what you Bucs fans have convinced yourselves.

Gruden's a good coach but he's not an *elite* coach. Bill Parcells - generally believed to be an *elite* type coach - never drew ANYWHERE close to that kind of compensation. On the surface, it was a very lopsided trade.

I don't care WHAT the Bucs do this season. What if Dungy's Colts win the Super Bowl? Does that really impact that value of the trade?

Dungy was a good coach and is probably regarded along the same level as Gruden is in NFL circles. Is there an upgrade there? I don't happen to think so. So for the price the Bucs paid for a head coach regarded as the same calibre coach as the one they fired.. it was not good value.

If the Bucs win 10-11 games... and get beat out the first or second round of the playoffs... was that a beneficial tradeoff?

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In signing Gruden the bucs placed a piece of gauze on a paper cut. When all you need is an offensive coordinator, you don't give away your future draft picks, especially so many on a HC. Soon, their team will be old and less competitive.

Then they compound their mistake by signing Rob Johnson, who will be sacked 200 times this season. The should actually be starting Shaun King, he's the better of the three QB's right now. Brad Johnson's arm is like a slim jim now and he can't move at all anymore.

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One Dollar is right about one thing though. That 8 million means absolutely nothing in terms of signing more players. Sorry Die Hard but your point fails there. Coaching salary or compensation has no bearing on cap money whatsoever, so no that 8 million couldn't have been used to sign more players. That's like saying 25 million is too much for Spurrier and hurts our team...it has no bearing whatsoever on players.

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CounterTre - I am not incorrect.

Spurrier was signed to a 5-year $25 million contract. That's his salary. Not his compensation. That $8 million is IN ADDITION to Gruden's salary... so that figure definitely factors into the equation.

Further, while the NFL salary cap is set.... signing bonuses can circumvent those rules. There shouldn't be any argument there if one understands the cap. There's only a few players that count $8 million against a team's cap. An $8 million signing bonus will fetch any team a marquee free agent for about a 7-year contract. And that contract generally includes minimum base salaries for the first 2 years. So that player will count about $1.5-2.0 million against a team's cap for the first 2 years.

I don't know about you... but I'd rather have a player worth $8 million than a player worth $2 million... where both players count $2 million against a team's cap. That's a HUGE upgrade at a position... where Gruden over Dungy is not.

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Die-Hard,

Your still spewing opinion. I stated factually it will be years before the 4 picks will yeild results comparable to the trade of Gruden led Bucs. If the Bucs win a Superbowl with Gruden, it's a dead issue we win regardless of the picks.

As far as the Money it is a non-issue. How much money is Snyder paying Deion or other players no longer there? How much is he paying Shotty right now? Snyder pissed away alot more jack then the Glazers did in signing Gruden.

Bottom line is this Buc fans realize the value Gruden is and realizes what he has done with luring the FA that are proven already. Those lower first round and second rounders are gambles. and we still had picks 3-7 plus extras.

Time will only tell. If Gruden wins a championship in 2004 it will still be a win for Tampa. Until Gruden leaves or the Raiders picks they get are a direct reason for them winning a championship all your rants are nothing but OPINION.

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I am sorry, I thought someone was paying me a buck for my opinion.

Anyways, the Glazers are loaded, so shilling out extra $ for Gruden shouldn't hurt them.

What will hurt them is when they miss on a "Warren Sapp" like player who slid down in the 1st round. All because they wanted to bring in Chucky.

The funny thing is..the 49ers are the pissed off ones, because they thought they has swindled the Bucs with the Mooch deal. They (the Whiners) really wanted the Bucs picks.

Either way, imho, both Mooch and Chucky would have been FA coaches after this season, and the Bucs probably could have gotten one of them w/out doling out the picks. Mooch is probably a goner after this season anyways.

Doesn't matter anyways, Chucky will go ballistic when noodle arm or prima donna start taking sacks rather than throwing it away. j/k $1.

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Evil,

there are not usually Sapp like players at pick 26 in the first which is where they picked.

And next years first will probably be lower in the round.

About the Superbowl,

How many has Spurrier won to justify his highest coach salary?

How many superbowls has Belichek won as a HC before last year? was he worth the picks?

There are 32 teams trying to win it all with your logic 31 should be fired after every year. :rolleyes:

Gruden was a bad call away from going, had he, you might be feeling different. Dungy was a good coach, he just ignored the offense. Kiffen is still here to and Gruden is a HUGE improvement on offense from Dungy's OC's

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Q- Did the Skins give up picks for a Coach who was going to be a FA next year.

A - No. Apples and Oranges here.

Q- Does One Dollar read the same Bay Area papers that Evil Genius reads every day that talks about the Raiders and 49ers til Evil Genius is sick to his stomach. In which papers hinted that Chucky and Mooch were most likely on their way out.

A- Unclear but most likely no.

Q- Since its possible that any team can win a Super Bowl, its ALSO quite possible that any team can lose a lot of games and not pick int he late 20's of the Draft. What happens if Chucky's system doesnt work and the Bucs surrender a Top 10 pick after this year. Is the trade still worth it then? And if the Bucs are so adept at picking talent later in the draft, then they probably are adept at picking starting talent in Rounds 1,2,3. Won't the loss of those picks have a damaging effect to the team?

A - Yes its possible. Yes it would be too much to give up (it already was). Yes it will have a damaging effect.

See, I saved you some time today. You didnt even have to answer my questions :D

In all seriousness, this trade can't be evaluated until the Raiders end up with a Shaun Alexander and Koren Robinson talent players. Much like the Cowboys gave away when they traded for Throwy Picksaway.

Sorry $1, you will just have to settle for the brass ring, because thats all Chucky has brought so far.

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Evil,

regarding the FA coach thing - read my orinal reply to the topic starter. It's foolish bordering on ridiculas to think he would be there waiting.

I keep saying only time will tell regarding "the compensation", what part of that don't you understand? The money part is a non-factor, as I pointed out with the wasted $$ your owner has paid out.

As far as talent in the first round, there are busts as much as stars. Reidel Anthony ring a bell? ;) Reagan Upshaw? 2nd round busts? Jaquez Green? Isn't he fighting for a #3 WR slot?

I read lots of papers, I just don't get suckered into the hacks opinions as much. :)

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One Dollar - What you're saying is the value for the deal cannot be determined until after all the cards are played out right? That's not fact... that's your opinion. I can't believe how many people make that common mistake - believing their opinion is fact. Not to mention, I've never said my argument was factual. You, however, are. And you are mistaken.

What I'm saying is... sure... if you recognize the deal is lopsided... you're going to take the "let's wait and see" approach. You have to look at what the deal is TODAY. Geez, ultimately the deal was made by both parties on the principle that it would benefit their respective clubs. Whether those aspirations bear fruition are irrelevant.

At face value... the Bucs got burned. Very simple unless you are a dense Bucs fan.

1 *good* head coach for 4 top drafts picks and $8 million. That's lopsided.

Sure, the draft picks are gambles. So is Gruden. Gruden isn't a proven elite coach. He hasn't had success where ever he's gone. He's had a decent run for a few years with the Raiders. Whoopee.

So did Art Shell.

Look at Dungy's track records. Look at Gruden's. THEY'RE THE FEAKIN SAME. You didn't upgrade the position. You got tit for tat. And it cost you the rights to 4 top draft picks and a boatload of cash. That's a bad trade any way you cut it. Sorry.

I don't care if all the Raiders picks turn into flops. If Gruden doesn't win the Super Bowl... he will have matched Dungy's success in Tampa. The only difference being the Bucs will have forfeited the rights to 4-5 potentially top players.

Now if the Bucs win the Super Bowl... great for them. But it still doesn't legitimize the trade. Gruden won't be the sole reason why the Bucs win... they already had the foundation in place.

And Gruden doesn't make the Bucs any more a contender to win the Super Bowl than Dungy did. So why the excitement in Tampa?

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Die hard you have set yourself up:

If we are to look at it TODAY then we got Gruden for TWO draft picks (since trades can bring future ones back, plus like YOU said we are looking at it TODAY)

Lets see the Raiders used the Bucs pick and packaged with a 3rd & 5th to move up and get CB Buchanan (Miami), so in reality Buchanons success is going to have to be weiged with the 3 picks used to move up to get him.

Now with the second round pick they got LB Napoleon Harris (Northwestern) who many thought would be around in the later rounds

So basically AS OF TODAY we got Gruden for 1/3 of Buchanan and Napoleon Harris. LOL!

Thank you , this makes me feel even better for this deal. What a steal, Gruden to get for that!

Oh, and your comment :

"And Gruden doesn't make the Bucs any more a contender to win the Super Bowl than Dungy did. So why the excitement in Tampa?"

is bordering on lunacy. Are you really that blind or are you just that uninformed about the past 6 years of offense under Dungy?

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Dollar - You really are a dumb@ss. You know that? I've repeated myself twice already.

I say take a look at the trade at face value... so you choose to ignore next year's picks and include just this years? Dense.

I say look at the trade value for what it is in 'principle'... not in hindsight. So you bring up Buchanon and Harris? Dense.

I suppose I'm a lunatic then. Dungy gets credited for forging Tampa's vaunted defense. Now he leaves... and the defense is supposed to be just as strong... but the offense even better? No... you're taking a hit on defense for increased offensive production. It's a wash. Sorry Archie.

Just like your coaches. Both are perennial winners who have won a few division titles and taken their respective teams to a conference championship game. One did it with defense.. the other with offense.

Tit for tat. Tit for tat. Tit for tat.. Repeat after me. Oh yeah... and 4 less top draft picks and $8 million to boot. Uggh.

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This is like a mexican standoff no winner here.

First you say look at the trade TODAY then say at face value, then "principle" which is it? Today does not include 2003 & 2004 unknown drafts.

Buchanan & Harris is not hindsight, it is the current deal as of TODAY. Everything else is speculation and opinion.

And your Dungy argument applies to your own situation. Is Spurrier worth it since your defense was strong already?

you appear to be the dense dumb@ss now.

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Interesting question, the "worth of a HC" to a team.

In the case of a perennial loser, say the Bengals, I don't know that there IS "too high a price" to pay. If they could lure Joe Gibbs out of retirement (and of course hogtie Mike Brown and lock him in the broom closet for 5 years), I'd say giving up a healthy collection of high draft picks AND throwing a ton of money at him would be well worth it. I happen to believe that having an upper-echelon HC makes an incalculable difference.

The Jets did it with Parcells, and I'd have to say that they got an instant and much-needed healthy return on their investment. That he bailed on them shortly thereafter I won't hold against the Jets. They tried. I'd hope my team would do the same (which they did, which makes this, I hope, a point worth making :) ).

In Tampa's case ... I'm more compelled by DH on this one than I am One Dollar. If they had been a lousy club for a long time, I think the price they paid would have been eminently reasonable. Based on their run of success under Dungy, though, it's hard for the outside observer to see that there's been all that serious an upgrade ... or at least not one that makes the cost particularly palatable. I suspect a whole lot of folks in Tampa will be watching the Colts closely this year.

I don't see this quite a black and white as either DH or Dollar do, but as of today, I'll cast my vote on the "too high a price" ledger.

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Dollar - I said look at the deal TODAY... which is in "principle". I said REGARDLESS of what the Raiders do with the picks... you look at the trade in PRINCIPLE...

A *GOOD* HEAD COACH FOR 4 TOP DRAFT PICKS AND $8 MILLION.

That's the trade. No speculation needed. That's how you evaluate the trade. Not after knowing what the Raiders did with the picks. Not after know what players the Raiders ultimately chose with the picks. Not after what examining how well the players perform over their careers.

And since I've taken the leisure of using subjective terms like "good' head coach... we should also imply that those 4 top draft picks would be *good* players. For the sake of argument ya know?

Get it? I hope you would. Maybe I was being too harsh. I was because I thought I was arguing with an adult who appears to be reasoning with the logic of a seven-year old. Perhaps I should ask your age?

And your Dungy argument applies to your own situation. Is Spurrier worth it since your defense was strong already? you appear to be the dense dumb@ss now

No. It doesn't apply at all. First, we're not debating the merits of of firing Marty Schottenheimer and trading 4 top draft picks and $8 million for Steve Spurrier. We signed Steve Spurrier without having to give up any compensation. None. No argument.

I hope for arguments sake you are a kid because you're reading comprehension skills aren't very developed and your logic is severely lacking.

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Originally posted by Om

....If they had been a lousy club for a long time, I think the price they paid would have been eminently reasonable..

Om,

Replace "club" with "offense" and "long time" with "entire existance" and you might view it differently.

I know it's hard to fathom since your team has had good offenses before and won. We NEVER, repeat NEVER had any offense even in the Doug Williams era, it was the defense.

Do you understand now?

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Die hard,

explain how you evaluate the trade without looking at what the picks do? If this was prior to free agency you might use the argument that they will lose players but that is not so in todays NFL.

Therefore what I stated before, it's opinion and speculation. nothing else. It is possible now to replace missing picks with FA's so your argument is pointless unless you evaluate the players.

You question my age, I'm 42 and feel like I'm arguing with my 5 yr. old son with you, you just won't accept the fact that your whole argument is pointless in free agency which I pointed out in the second reply to this thread.

And why do you keep bringing up the 8" million for Gruden but ignore the millions paid to players and coaches no longer on your team? Let it go, it's the billionaires money. Except for what is paid to players it doesn't affect the cap.

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Dollar - Now you have an offense.... and you're defense will take a hit. If you're gonna assume Gruden gives your offense instant credibility... you also have to acknowledge your defense will experience a setback with the loss of Dungy. That's a wash. That's the point. You replaced one good coach with another... who have equal resumes... and the Bucs paid for it dearly. That's a net loss.

Om - There's only a FEW headcoaches in NFL history worthy of compensation. Parcells is one of those coaches... and since we already have a precedent with him (ie. Pats/Jets)... we can establish some kind of 'black and white'. Parcells didn't even fetch half of what Gruden cost.

Dungy and Gruden have identical resumes. But Dungy didn't cost the Colts an arm and a leg.

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