Poteet Posted December 13, 2005 Share Posted December 13, 2005 And factor in the weekly injury updates. If Springs and Samuels cannot go look for a big change in the point spread with Dallass possibly being favored.:dallasuck :gaintsuck :eaglesuck I think Samuels will go anyway, but even if they were both out, there's no way the line would swing 3 points or more (making Dallas favored). It just doesn't happen for things like that.... In fact, NFL spreads rarely change more than a point... the oddsmakers know how to get a 50/50 split on most games. Lastly, please look at last week's Steelers/Bears game. The Steelers were favored by 6 and the line actually went up to 6.5. Now, why was that the case? The Steelers had lost 3 in a row and Chicago had won 8 in a row. I could see the spread at 3, but they take a lot more into account than any of us (including me) will ever know. When a spread is that far "off", there's a reason for it.... like the Steelers' #1 weakness (pass defense) is NOT something the Bears inept passing game could exploit. But "Average Joe's" that listened to the media kissing the Bears' tails and crushing the Steelers probably took the Bears and lost big. The guys that know football and matchup went the other way. I hopped on the Steelers and won easy. Again, the fact that the Skins are favored is a pleasant surprise. I would think that most "Average Joe's" would pick Dallas in this game --- based on the media --- because that's all "Average Joe's" look at and listen to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark The Homer Posted December 13, 2005 Share Posted December 13, 2005 Also, keep in mind win-loss records of the two teams, vs strength-of-schedule. Cowboys schedule strength is currently 12th in the league, Redskins is 4th. And they're one game up on us win-loss wise. Woop dee doo. Look at the schedules. They're basically the same, except that we had to play the Bucs and the Bears, both division leaders. Whereas Dallas had to play the Lions -- (give me a break) and then the Panthers (a game they will lose) Christmas weekend. Dallas ain't ****. **** them. **** that. They're a bunch of ******* ******* (note that I am within the boundaries of the official extremeskins' rulebook regarding masked profanity; yeah I read it). ;-) I think being a 2.5 point favorite is dead on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark The Homer Posted December 13, 2005 Share Posted December 13, 2005 Lastly, please look at last week's Steelers/Bears game. The Steelers were favored by 6 and the line actually went up to 6.5. Now, why was that the case? The Steelers had lost 3 in a row and Chicago had won 8 in a row. I could see the spread at 3, but they take a lot more into account than any of us (including me) will ever know. When a spread is that far "off", there's a reason for it.... like the Steelers' #1 weakness (pass defense) is NOT something the Bears inept passing game could exploit. But "Average Joe's" that listened to the media kissing the Bears' tails and crushing the Steelers probably took the Bears and lost big. The guys that know football and matchup went the other way. I hopped on the Steelers and won easy. Again, I think it's strength of schedule. Steelers is 14th, Panthers is 29th. That's worth a couple points. Add four points for playing at Heinz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy-the-Greek Posted December 13, 2005 Share Posted December 13, 2005 I think Dallas should be a 1-2 point favorite in this game. I have a really bad feeling about this game. I think Dallas will beat us by a field goal in a low scoring game and knock us out of the playoff picture. We have not played good footbal over the past 10 weeks. Brunell looks like he is reverting to the MB of last year. Joe's play calling isn't fooling anyone. Our "D" looks soft in the 4th quarter and we have lacked the ability to run out the clock in the 4th quarter in the majority of the last 10 games. Dallas 16 - 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ManleyMann71 Posted December 13, 2005 Share Posted December 13, 2005 Remember the beginning of the season when we were underdogs in every game, that's when we played the best, I hate being favored, it's like a death sentence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinstzar Posted December 13, 2005 Share Posted December 13, 2005 You guys know next to nothing about vegas odds. you get three points for being at home automatically. So in essense being +2.5 is not a good thing, it means Vegas sees you as being slightly worse than the cowboys. +3 for the home team means the teams are even. I wouldn't pay a whole lot of attention to the line untill friday though. From the looks of your post, neither do you. The skins are -2.5, not +2.5. The line also could have been driven a half a point by early money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rigginsrules Posted December 13, 2005 Share Posted December 13, 2005 I think Dallas should be a 1-2 point favorite in this game. I have a really bad feeling about this game. I think Dallas will beat us by a field goal in a low scoring game and knock us out of the playoff picture.We have not played good footbal over the past 10 weeks. Brunell looks like he is reverting to the MB of last year. Joe's play calling isn't fooling anyone. Our "D" looks soft in the 4th quarter and we have lacked the ability to run out the clock in the 4th quarter in the majority of the last 10 games. Dallas 16 - 13 Yeah, I know what you mean. I'm not sure who will win this game but I just pray that the Redskins bring their "A" game to this one. If Gibbs will pound the ball with Portis, Betts, and Cartwright then I will feel a whole lot better. I know the Brunell/Moss combination won it for us last time but I just don't think passing more than 45 % of the time is smart with this team. Turnovers have killed us when we pass so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter56s14gc Posted December 13, 2005 Share Posted December 13, 2005 home field gives you two points. we hare 1/2 point fav. ============correction. i stand corrected. dallas is 1/2 fav. minus our home field compensation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy-the-Greek Posted December 13, 2005 Share Posted December 13, 2005 Yeah, I know what you mean. I'm not sure who will win this game but I just pray that the Redskins bring their "A" game to this one. If Gibbs will pound the ball with Portis, Betts, and Cartwright then I will feel a whole lot better. I know the Brunell/Moss combination won it for us last time but I just don't think passing more than 45 % of the time is smart with this team. Turnovers have killed us when we pass so much. I still don't understand why Gibbs calls so many between the tackle runs for Portis. He is clearly much better off tackle and on plays where we string out the line to a side and he can have lanes to cut back. Rock or Betts should be getting the between the tackle runs. I also wonder why he isn't using Nemo on short yardage plays as either a lead blocker or the runner. The Cardinal game should have been a blowout. We screwed up 3 redzone opportunities. That should have been between 9-21 points. Then we wouldn't have had to sweat out the last 5 minutes of that game. Atleast we did run out the clock and move the chains at the end of the 4th quarter against the Cardinals and didn't let them score on the final drive of the game. I just don't see us scoring that many points on the dallas "D" the way we are playing right now. I also can't see us running out the clock on them to help preserve a win. I see a 13-13 tie and them getting the ball with 2-3 minutes left and driving down the field to kick the game winning FG. :doh: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isifhan Posted December 13, 2005 Share Posted December 13, 2005 I still don't understand why Gibbs calls so many between the tackle runs for Portis. He is clearly much better off tackle and on plays where we string out the line to a side and he can have lanes to cut back. This was touched on in the Bugel chat. Portis requests those runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csgunderson Posted December 13, 2005 Share Posted December 13, 2005 If you want to get a flavor of who Vegas feels will win the game outright, you look at the money line, not the point spread. For this week's game, the money line is all over the place - the Skins are ranging from -115 to 119 (see http://www.covers.com/sports/nfl/nfl_lines.aspx ). So, basically, there is no consesus in Vegas as to who the outright winner will be. For those who do not know what the money line is, it is a bet for the outright winner - point spread is not taken into account. So, a money line for the Skins at -115 means you have to put up $115 to win $100; conversely, a money line for the Skins at 119, means you have to put up $100 to win $119. But, keep in mind as others have already mentioned, the goal in Vegas is not necessarily to favor the team they think will win, it is to set the lines in a way that they make the most money off the result. And a large part of that equation is how much money the teams have had laid on them over the course of the season. If a team is getting bet heavily, they will give points to sway money to their opponent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DieselPwr44 Posted December 13, 2005 Share Posted December 13, 2005 I don't see a close game. I see us getting our hats handed to us by Dallas....especially with the way we've been playing as of late- turning the ball over, Brunell's very erratic passing,no #2 wr to take advantage of Moss' double coverage, our secondary almost decimated by injury,etc. I will say this....we have a slim chance to win if we can run the football and can control the clock. Just depends on whether we show up or another attack of Norvitis (Giants 36-0 earlier this season) hits us. Not trying to be negative but the team hasn't exactly set the world on fire with it's play the last few weeks. :2cents: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PleaseBlitz Posted December 13, 2005 Share Posted December 13, 2005 The line on these games really means nothing. This game will probably be close, because all Redskins games are, but no one can say what is going to happen in a Skins/Cowboys game. I would lay money on this game if someone put a gun to my head, but thats about the only way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
altair4 Posted December 13, 2005 Share Posted December 13, 2005 Heart, Guts, Intiention...not necessarily in that order.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poteet Posted December 13, 2005 Share Posted December 13, 2005 If you want to get a flavor of who Vegas feels will win the game outright, you look at the money line, not the point spread. For this week's game, the money line is all over the place - the Skins are ranging from -115 to 119 (see http://www.covers.com/sports/nfl/nfl_lines.aspx ). So, basically, there is no consesus in Vegas as to who the outright winner will be.For those who do not know what the money line is, it is a bet for the outright winner - point spread is not taken into account. So, a money line for the Skins at -115 means you have to put up $115 to win $100; conversely, a money line for the Skins at 119, means you have to put up $100 to win $119. But, keep in mind as others have already mentioned, the goal in Vegas is not necessarily to favor the team they think will win, it is to set the lines in a way that they make the most money off the result. And a large part of that equation is how much money the teams have had laid on them over the course of the season. If a team is getting bet heavily, they will give points to sway money to their opponent. Good point about the money line... but money lines are typically based on the point spread. If a team is favored by a touchdown, the money line will be something like -300. If they are getting points, you'll see the money line anywhere from 100 to 400 (depending on how high the point spread is). I think that point spreads dictate the money line. But they can obviously move throughout the week depending on which bet (vs. spread or straight up) bettors are taking. Again, the name of the game is to get 50% of the money bet on each team (vs. spread). That percentage is obviously different for the money lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskinsfan71 Posted December 13, 2005 Share Posted December 13, 2005 I wouldn't say this in public or to my wife, but I keep seeing Terry Glenn in my head beating us on some trick SportsCenter type play. I don't know why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sacase Posted December 13, 2005 Share Posted December 13, 2005 Good point about the money line... but money lines are typically based on the point spread. If a team is favored by a touchdown, the money line will be something like -300. If they are getting points, you'll see the money line anywhere from 100 to 400 (depending on how high the point spread is). I think that point spreads dictate the money line. But they can obviously move throughout the week depending on which bet (vs. spread or straight up) bettors are taking. Again, the name of the game is to get 50% of the money bet on each team (vs. spread). That percentage is obviously different for the money lines. Money line should be around -120 or so, but what is interesting Dallas could end up with a money line of -110 to -130, depending on how many people are putting money on Dallas. This is a game you DO NOT bet on, it is a complete toss up. As a Dallas fan I have to agree, there are so many ways this game could go it's not even funny. I think I will keep my money in my pocket and sit back and enjoy another nail biter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonez3 Posted December 13, 2005 Share Posted December 13, 2005 Not to quibble here, BUT THE SPREAD IS CURRENTLY 3. Also, Vegas drools over these games in which the money line is generally -115 for both teams, a pick em. Regardless of who you bet on, you pay 115 if they lose. Vegas was founded on this principle, the vig. On any given Sunday or Super Bowl, Vegas wants exactly half the betting population to split their bets 50-50. Half taking one team the other half taking the other. It's a guaranteed 10% profit. They really don't wan't any chance involved. THEY ARE NOT GAMBLERS, ironically enough. The spreads are more designed to induce the 50-50 betting pattern they desire, not really a predictor of the game. The money line is always a better gauge andd Vegas is very careful with that. This game is a no braoner, -115 both ways. Injuries will change that, but, they know this and would have adjusted not to get burnt on the early betters. It's gonna be a doozy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
santanamoss89 Posted December 13, 2005 Share Posted December 13, 2005 2.5 FAVORite. Sounds good to me. Lets win by 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DallasInDC Posted December 13, 2005 Share Posted December 13, 2005 Actually, I disagree with how simplistic you make things. Of course everybody knows that the home team gets three points. However, odds don't just take into consideration who Vegas believes will win... that is not the focus. The odds are made so that 50% of the bettors take the favorite and the other 50% take the underdog. Vegas doesn't care who wins, they get the "juice" either way. What's interesting with this spread is that everyone is talking up the Cowboys and the Skins are still basically flying under the radar. Yeah, the Skins won the first game, but everyone talked about how they were outplayed for nearly the entire game (which was true). I expected this line to come in at even or possibly have the Cowboys favored by a point. The fact that the Redskins are favored by 2.5 (or 3 -- depending on where you look) is a good sign for them. I think the "Average Joe" bettors will hop on Dallas ---- as the media loves them and hasn't talked about the Skins for some time. If the "Average Joe's" (majority of bettors) are going to take Dallas, then who is going to take Washington? Answer ------ the big boys who actually make money and study these spreads. I think this spread is bad for the "Average Joe's" who listen to the media ALL the time and base picks on what the media says, and is a good sign for the Redskins. Obviously, time will tell.... but I study spreads a lot and I was pleasantly surprised when I saw the lines on this game. Why be "pleasantly surprised" unless you plan to bet on the game. the point spread provides no advantage to either team and has absolutely no impact on the outcome of the game. I am always amazed at the importance fans place on the point spread like it really means something to the actual game being played. The same thing holds true for fans emotions on mediot prognosticators. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BOYNTONBEACHSKINSFAN Posted December 13, 2005 Share Posted December 13, 2005 vegas factors in all kinds of CRAZY stats gibbs record in december,skins record when coming off road win, skins record when rb rushes for 100 yards prevoius game ect...scares me when i see this line cause skins were a +260 in the last game vs dallas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigmac Posted December 14, 2005 Share Posted December 14, 2005 The latest spread has the Skins favored 3 points over Dallas. I sure hope we can pull out a W of any margin. Let's go Skins!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TexasRedskinFan Posted December 14, 2005 Share Posted December 14, 2005 AAAHHH! I'm gonna wear my "Dallas Sucks" shirt to a sports bar down here in Texas for the game.... Please don't make me look stupid (or get my ass kicked?), Redskins! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
altair4 Posted December 14, 2005 Share Posted December 14, 2005 Nothin like ASKING for trouble....good luck with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozskin Posted December 14, 2005 Share Posted December 14, 2005 AAAHHH! I'm gonna wear my "Dallas Sucks" shirt to a sports bar down here in Texas for the game.... Please don't make me look stupid (or get my ass kicked?), Redskins! Thats great.:laugh: I'm sure they wont let you down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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