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'Skins early 2.5 point favorites against Dallas (Merged x2)


Mr Platypus

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You guys know next to nothing about vegas odds. you get three points for being at home automatically. So in essense being +2.5 is not a good thing, it means Vegas sees you as being slightly worse than the cowboys. +3 for the home team means the teams are even. I wouldn't pay a whole lot of attention to the line untill friday though.

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He could have been a little nicer but he is right. Vegas give the home teams a FG to start so if this game was in Dallass the spread would be 3.5 Dallass as of now. Neutral site the spread would be .5 in favor of the Girls.

:dallasuck :gaintsuck :eaglesuck

....and they do this for a reason. The Redskins are more likely to win the game than lose it.

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Yes they do it for a reason, to make money. They arent as concerned with being right as with making money, thats the whole point of the odds.

I dont see why he would need to be nicer...I mean if you are going to talk about something with authority, know what you are talking about.

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You guys know next to nothing about vegas odds. you get three points for being at home automatically. So in essense being +2.5 is not a good thing, it means Vegas sees you as being slightly worse than the cowboys. +3 for the home team means the teams are even. I wouldn't pay a whole lot of attention to the line untill friday though.

Actually, I disagree with how simplistic you make things. Of course everybody knows that the home team gets three points. However, odds don't just take into consideration who Vegas believes will win... that is not the focus. The odds are made so that 50% of the bettors take the favorite and the other 50% take the underdog. Vegas doesn't care who wins, they get the "juice" either way.

What's interesting with this spread is that everyone is talking up the Cowboys and the Skins are still basically flying under the radar. Yeah, the Skins won the first game, but everyone talked about how they were outplayed for nearly the entire game (which was true). I expected this line to come in at even or possibly have the Cowboys favored by a point. The fact that the Redskins are favored by 2.5 (or 3 -- depending on where you look) is a good sign for them. I think the "Average Joe" bettors will hop on Dallas ---- as the media loves them and hasn't talked about the Skins for some time. If the "Average Joe's" (majority of bettors) are going to take Dallas, then who is going to take Washington? Answer ------ the big boys who actually make money and study these spreads. I think this spread is bad for the "Average Joe's" who listen to the media ALL the time and base picks on what the media says, and is a good sign for the Redskins. Obviously, time will tell.... but I study spreads a lot and I was pleasantly surprised when I saw the lines on this game.

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I don't think the +3 thing holds water. That is a commonly known idea that can be false in a number of occasions. For instance, do you honestly believe the odds makers gave 3 points to Arizona this weekend?

'Fraid not. If you think that to be true, go check out the Cardinals' message board. It is full of people talking about how the crowd was actually more for the Skins.

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I don't think the +3 thing holds water. That is a commonly known idea that can be false in a number of occasions. For instance, do you honestly believe the odds makers gave 3 points to Arizona this weekend?

'Fraid not. If you think that to be true, go check out the Cardinals' message board. It is full of people talking about how the crowd was actually more for the Skins.

Generally, speaking, the oddsmakers start the formula by giving the home team a three point advantage. But that's not how it ends. It might be different for Arizona because their home field advantage is so lousy. It might just be +1 for them, whereas it's +4 for the Colts.

Frankly, before this year, +3 for the Skins was being generous.

Anyway, you start at +3 and then work your way back. So if the Colts are +14 favorite on the road, that could be a +17 on a neutral field or a +20 at home.

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Generally' date=' speaking, the oddsmakers start the formula by giving the home team a three point advantage. But that's not how it ends. It might be different for Arizona because their home field advantage is so lousy. It might just be +1 for them, whereas it's +4 for the Colts.

Frankly, before this year, +3 for the Skins was being generous.

Anyway, you start at +3 and then work your way back. So if the Colts are +14 favorite on the road, that could be a +17 on a neutral field or a +20 at home.[/quote']

No big deal... but the Colts would be -14 on the road and -20 at home (not +14 and +20). Also, please see my earlier post on the first page of this thread.

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Generally' date=' speaking, the oddsmakers start the formula by giving the home team a three point advantage. But that's not how it ends. It might be different for Arizona because their home field advantage is so lousy. It might just be +1 for them, whereas it's +4 for the Colts.

Frankly, before this year, +3 for the Skins was being generous.

Anyway, you start at +3 and then work your way back. So if the Colts are +14 favorite on the road, that could be a +17 on a neutral field or a +20 at home.[/quote']

And factor in the weekly injury updates. If Springs and Samuels cannot go look for a big change in the point spread with Dallass possibly being favored.

:dallasuck :gaintsuck :eaglesuck

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You guys know next to nothing about vegas odds. you get three points for being at home automatically. So in essense being +2.5 is not a good thing, it means Vegas sees you as being slightly worse than the cowboys. +3 for the home team means the teams are even. I wouldn't pay a whole lot of attention to the line untill friday though.

Yup

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