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The Panthers Factor


raperry2

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OK, Panthers are 9-4... their remaining schedule:

New Orleans

Dallas

Atlanta

OK, so we want Dallas and Atlanta to both lose another game because that will be an advantage to us. But if they don't, that makes the Panthers 10-6 since I doubt they lose to New Orleans. We would be ahead of the Panthers in that case. If they win one and lose one, that puts us over whoever they beat. I'm sure this is way more complicated than I am making it. So if we win out would we not DEFINITELY get the 6 seed?

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One thing that is shaping up in our favor is the NFC South. This is all assuming we win out, but if Tampa could somehow win that division, we're in GREAT shape with tie-breakers since we'd be 10-2 in the conference. With Tampa as the division champ, there would be no potential NFC wildcard team that would hold a head-to-head tie-breaker on us...

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Am I right in thinking that if we win out we will have the tie breaker over every concievable nfc wildcard team except TB, due to nfc record?

Yes, but that still requires us to be tied with others for this to come into play. If we don't win, or if we don't get a few timely (and in cases, very likely) losses from others, tie-breakers will be a non-issue.

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Just for fun, here's how we DON'T get in even if we finish 10-6

At 10-6, we'll have a 10-2 conference record, which will give us tiebreakers over everyone in the NFC (except Tampa Bay, due to head to head loss)

For sake of argument, Atlanta wins tonight. (Against the Saints, thats a pretty good bet)

So, the teams in our way are: Atlanta (8-5). Minnesota (8-5), Dallas (8-5), Tampa (9-4), Carolina (9-4)

Minnesota runs the table, finishing at 11-5. That means a loss for the Bears (currently 9-4)

Atlanta also runs the table, & they finish 11-5. that means a loss for Chicago, Tampa Bay, & Carolina.

Carolina beats New Orleans, beats Dallas, and loses to Atlanta, to finish at 11-5.

Tampa beats New England, loses to atlanta, and beats New Orleans, to finish at 11-5.

So, under this scenario, here are your records at the end of the season.

Seattle- Doesn't matter (for arguments sake: 13-3)

north Winner- Minnesota: 11-5

East Winner- New York giants: 11-5

South Winner- Atlanta: 11-5

Wild Cards: Carolina (11-5) and Tampa Bay (11-5)

Outside looking in: Washington (10-6), Chicago (10-6)

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Seattle- Doesn't matter (for arguments sake: 13-3)

north Winner- Minnesota: 11-5

East Winner- New York giants: 11-5

South Winner- Atlanta: 11-5

Wild Cards: Carolina (11-5) and Tampa Bay (11-5)

Outside looking in: Washington (10-6), Chicago (10-6)

Interesting. Well then.... go Saints! Let's hope Atlanta doesn't take the South... it's not likely. They showed they can't beat Carolina.

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Interesting. Well then.... go Saints! Let's hope Atlanta doesn't take the South... it's not likely. They showed they can't beat Carolina.

This is certainly a doomsday scenario, it would be nothing but bad luck if it fell exactly that way. What I did figure out, that if everything falls this way, EXCEPT, Tampa loses to New England, than we would get the #6 seed at 10-6, because we would win a three team tiebreaker with Chicago & Tampa Bay because of our Conference record.

It should be a fun final three weeks, hopefully the skins can keep on winning.

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This is certainly a doomsday scenario, it would be nothing but bad luck if it fell exactly that way. What I did figure out, that if everything falls this way, EXCEPT, Tampa loses to New England, than we would get the #6 seed at 10-6, because we would win a three team tiebreaker with Chicago & Tampa Bay because of our Conference record.

It should be a fun final three weeks, hopefully the skins can keep on winning.

Thanks for figuring everything out. I'm glad to see a lot of head-to-head match-ups of the top-8 NFC teams in these final weeks.

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Panthers can beat the saints but i want them to lose to dallas and atlanta. Just a step for the skins getting the 2nd seed.

Second seed? I don't see how that can happen. BUT, what the hell, lets figure it out.

A #2 seed at 10-6 would mean the division winners would all have to be 10-6.

That means, Chicago, Tampa, Carolina, & the Giants need to lose twice, and Minnesota & Atlanta need to lose once....

Lets see here. GIANTS- Lose to KC, lose to Washington, beat Oakland (10-6)

Chicago- lose to Green Bay & Minnesota, beat Atlanta (10-6)

Minny- lose to Pittsburgh, beat Baltimore & Chicago (10-6)

Tampa- loses to New England & Atlanta, beats New Orleans (10-6)

Carolina- loses to Atlanta & Dallas, beats New orleans (10-6)

Atlanta- beats New orleans, Carolina, & Tampa, loses to Chicago (10-6)

Skins- beat Dallas, New York, & Philadelphia (10-6)

Under this scenario, your division champions are as follows:

East- Washington Redskins (Tiebreaker over Giants with division record)

South- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (tiebreaker over Atlanta with conf record)

North-Minnesota Vikings (tiebreaker over Chicago with division record)

So we're out, cause Tampa beat both us & Minnesota. Damnit, I thought I had it

Needless to say, it's not going to be easy to get a # 2 seed. Tampa might need to lose out.......

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Just for fun, here's how we DON'T get in even if we finish 10-6

At 10-6, we'll have a 10-2 conference record, which will give us tiebreakers over everyone in the NFC (except Tampa Bay, due to head to head loss)

For sake of argument, Atlanta wins tonight. (Against the Saints, thats a pretty good bet)

So, the teams in our way are: Atlanta (8-5). Minnesota (8-5), Dallas (8-5), Tampa (9-4), Carolina (9-4)

Minnesota runs the table, finishing at 11-5. That means a loss for the Bears (currently 9-4)

Atlanta also runs the table, & they finish 11-5. that means a loss for Chicago, Tampa Bay, & Carolina.

Carolina beats New Orleans, beats Dallas, and loses to Atlanta, to finish at 11-5.

Tampa beats New England, loses to atlanta, and beats New Orleans, to finish at 11-5.

So, under this scenario, here are your records at the end of the season.

Seattle- Doesn't matter (for arguments sake: 13-3)

north Winner- Minnesota: 11-5

East Winner- New York giants: 11-5

South Winner- Atlanta: 11-5

Wild Cards: Carolina (11-5) and Tampa Bay (11-5)

Outside looking in: Washington (10-6), Chicago (10-6)

I have been avoiding this scenario all day. I have refused to go over to nfl.com and play this out in my head. Now I am bummed out. I think it is unlikely though. If this scenario plays out then no Redskin fan should leave the house on Monday Jan2 because only bad things could happen to you.

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I posted it in another thread but I'll post it here again.

To get the second seed..

Week 15

Redskins over Cowboys

Bears over Falcons

Chiefs over Giants (if doesn't happen, another out in week 17)

Patriots over Buccaneers (if doesn't happen, another out in week 17)

Steelers over Vikings (if doesn't happen, another out in week 16)

Panthers don’t matter this week

Week 16

Redskins over Giants

Packers over Bears

Cowboys over Panthers

Falcons over Buccaneers

Vikings must lose to Ravens IF they beat Steelers in Week 15

Week 17

Redskins over Eagles

Vikings over Bears

Giants must lose to Oakland IF they beat KC in Week 15

Cowboys don’t matter

Buccaneers must lose to Saints IF they beat NE in Week 15

Falcons over Panthers

Seattle would 1 seed

Redskins would be 2 seed at 10-6

Bears would be 3 seed at 10-6

Falcons would be 4 seed at 10-6

wild cards are really hairy

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