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WEEK TWELVE Picks, Pats, and Apologies


kleese

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Last Week: 9-7

Season: 104-54 (not bad)

Link to last week's thread:

http://extremeskins.com/forums/showthread.php?t=127777

Last Week's Pats: Well, not only did I correctly predict the Ravens over the Steelers, but I nailed the 16-13 score. Probably my best single pick of the year so far. Other than that, none of my other 8 correct picks were anything to brag about.

Last Week's Apologies: For the second week in a row, I gotta start with the Bucs. I thought Atlanta was going to throttle Tampa, but the Bucs showed a lot of guts in surviving the Falcons comeback and holding on for the win. I still think the Bucs could slip out of the playoff picture, but they've really sucked it up the past two weeks. Of course, I also blew the Raiders-Redskins pick-- guess Chris Berman was right :doh: Small apology to the Vikings, who I thought would lose by a TD in Green Bay.

This week's Picks:

Atlanta at Detroit: Three weeks ago, I tabbed the Falcons as my Super Bowl pick from the NFC. But something is wrong there. The defense simply isn't getting stops. I think they are in for a dogfight on Turkey Day, but I won't give up on them yet.

Falcons 23, Lions 20.

Denver at Dallas: Two teams on a roll right now. Neither team has lost in over a month, and both are not only battling for the playoffs, but battling for homefield advantage. On a neutral field, I think Denver is the slightly better team because they run the ball more effectively. But something tells me that Dallas shows up for this game, jumps on top early, and holds on to win.

Cowboys 24, Broncos 17.

Baltimore at Cincinnati: The Bengals can breath easy-- the Ravens got their upset out of their system last week.

Bengals 26, Ravens 14.

Carolina at Buffalo: Looking for an upset? Look no further than western New York. The Panthers have been cruising for weeks-- the Bills were humiliated last week. They say "never bet the due," but that's exactly what I'm doing here.

Bills 20, Panthers 17.

Chicago at Tampa Bay: Speaking of due-- I'd say it's about time the Bears lost again. For the third week in a row, the Bucs will knock off another NFC playoff contender.

Bucs 19, Bears 16.

Cleveland at Minnesota: I'm in a gambling mood, and my gut is screaming for an upset here. But sometimes you must ignore your gut and follow logic instead. The Vikings should be pretty confident right now-- they WILL implode at some point, but I say they at least make it another week.

Vikings 22, Browns 16.

New England at Kansas City: A VERY important game for the Chiefs-- much more so than for New England, who can probably win their division at 8-8. You know the Pats will scrap all day long, but I see their defense getting exploited by Tony Gonzalez and Trent Green.

Chiefs 30, Patriots 22.

San Diego at Washington: The mighty-mythical Chargers come storming into DC this weekend (check my other thread for more on SD), with the world predicting a slaughter. But the NFL doesn't really work that way. What happened last week seems to have little bearing on what happens this week. The Redskins will make a game of it to be sure. However, the Redskins defense has shown too many holes the past two weeks for me to predict a victory here. But the Redskins will have a chance in the 4th quarter.

Chargers 26, Redskins 20.

San Francisco at Tennessee: Yikes, not exactly the game of the week. Both teams play really hard--- this could be considered the "Reggie Bush Bowl." Chalk up a victory to the 49ers-- if you know what I mean.

Titans 24, 49ers 13.

St. Louis at Houston: Another doozy. Gotta figure the Texans are good for at least one or two more wins, but then again, they may be totally shot mentally at this point. The Rams still have a GLIMMER of hope and motivation, so that may be the difference.

Rams 24, Texans 21.

Jacksonville at Arizona: Can't you just see the Cardinals finishing strong and having everyone jump on the 2006 bandwagon? It's the same ole' story in the desert-- I missed an upset by an eyelash last week-- I'll try it again.

Cardinals 20, Jaguars 16.

Miami at Oakland: The Dolphins looked mildly promising early in the year after their upsets over Denver and Carolina-- but since then, they have gotten worse and worse and hit rock bottom last week in Cleveland. The Raiders should be feeling better about themselves after their road win last week.

Raiders 27, Dolphins 17.

Green Bay at Philadelphia: It's officially over in Green Bay for Favre and the Packers, and the same can be said for the 2005 season in Philly, now that McNabb and Owens are both lost for the year. This looked like a nice match-up when the schedule came out, but it's just another dud.

Eagles 21, Packers 17.

New York Giants at Seattle: Talk about a team due for a loss-- the Seahawks haven't dropped a game since they played in Washington, which seems like it was decades ago. Every fiber of my being is saying to pick the upset and go with the Giants, but I'm going to take the easy road and stick with the home team.

Seahawks 23, Giants 21.

New Orleans at New York Jets: Good grief, talk about a nationally-televised yawner. Toss a coin.

Saints 27, Jets 23.

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis: This one makes up for the Sunday night dud. I think the Steelers are the PERFECT match-up to beat the Colts in the playoffs. They can run the ball, win the field position battle, and keep Mannign and company off the field. The defense may get beat by that potent attack, but they won't get burned. The Steelers can keep the game close, and then anything can happen in the 4th quarter. I think this game could very well be revisited later in January, but for now, I must stick with the home team.

Colts 24, Steelers 19.

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"Have to win?" I'm not so sure. Realistically, yes. But then again, we realistically needed to beat the Raiders as well.

Call me crazy, as I'm sure you will :), but here's how I see it:

We lose this week to SD and everyone (rightfully so) counts us out.

Then, we fly under the radar and win back to back road games in St. Louis and Arizona.

Quietly, we enter the Dallas game at 7-6 and still alive in the race. At that point, it would be a three game season against the Cowboys, Giants, and Eagles. I'd take that.

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I hope I'm wrong about the Cowboys-Broncos game as well, but I simply don't see us getting lucky enough to have both the Giants and Cowboys lose this week. I think one of them will win, and I fear both of them will. I think Dallas has the advantage being at home on a short week. And the game isn't THAT important to the Broncos. They probably aren't going to beat out Indy for homefield anyway, and it's an NFC game on the road. I see Dallas with a little more fire.

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I hope I'm wrong about the Cowboys-Broncos game as well, but I simply don't see us getting lucky enough to have both the Giants and Cowboys lose this week. I think one of them will win, and I fear both of them will. I think Dallas has the advantage being at home on a short week. And the game isn't THAT important to the Broncos. They probably aren't going to beat out Indy for homefield anyway, and it's an NFC game on the road. I see Dallas with a little more fire.
Its great to see how Sean has really warmed up to the fans since his off the field thing. I really hope that clears up and he becomes a great player and model citizen for us for a long time.

You may be right.......but it seems that it is time for the boys to stump their toe on Thanksgiving day.

Blondie

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"Have to win?" I'm not so sure. Realistically, yes. But then again, we realistically needed to beat the Raiders as well.

Call me crazy, as I'm sure you will :), but here's how I see it:

We lose this week to SD and everyone (rightfully so) counts us out.

Then, we fly under the radar and win back to back road games in St. Louis and Arizona.

Quietly, we enter the Dallas game at 7-6 and still alive in the race. At that point, it would be a three game season against the Cowboys, Giants, and Eagles. I'd take that.

I was secretly thinking that we could (might, maybe) lose to San Diego, then not lose a game after that.

:cheers:

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