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WEEK ELEVEN Picks, Pats, and Apologies (Wrong Direction)


kleese

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Last week: 7-7 (ouch)

Season: 95-47 (Take that Peter King)

Last week's Pats: I should probably just leave this one blank. The 7 games I got correct were more or less the easier of the games on the board last night-- nothing to brag about. Some people were taking Miami to beat New England, but I'm hardly going to pat myself on the back for taking the back to back champs over the Dolphins.

Last week's Apologies: Where to start? I guess Tampa would be a good place. I thought the Redskins would win as long as they made Chris Simms beat them. Well, they did. And so did he. I was wrong. I never saw that type of game coming. Also gotta give some love to the Broncos, who I've been picking against all year. They are beginning to look like the real deal-- their defense has been superb all season.

This week's Picks:

Arizona at St. Louis: The Cardinals are a 4-12, 5-11 type of team. That means they have 2-3 more wins in them before the year is over. I wouldn't be surprised at all if they pulled it out this week, but if I'm going down, I'm not going down with the Cards. Kurt Warner back in St. Louis, but no one really seems to care.

Rams 24, Cardinals 17.

Carolina at Chicago: The Bears can put a lot of their doubters in their place this Sunday by beating the Panthers. But Kyle Orton has been regressing, and Carolina will be ALL over him this week.

Panthers 20, Bears 14.

Detroit at Dallas: This screams of a letdown game for the Cowboys. A short week following an emotional win on the road within the division. The Lions are managing to hang around the pathetic NFC North race, and I suspect they will hang around in Dallas this week as well. But at some point the Cowboys will wake up and take control.

Cowboys 23, Lions 17.

Indianapolis at Cincinnati: Clearly the game of the week. It's nice to see the Bengals playing meaningful games at this point in the season again. The Bengals teams of the mid-late 80's were always fun to watch and Cincy was never an easy place to play. The fans have stuck by them and deserve this team. But they aren't ready to take charge in the AFC quite yet. The Steelers gave the Bengals a bit of a reality check earlier this season and I see another one coming on Sunday. If the Bengals win this game, they will be ONE game away from securing homefield throughout the playoffs-- I just don't see that happening. You have to crawl before you can walk, and right now, the Bengals are trying to sprint.

Colts 30, Bengals 23.

Jacksonville at Tennessee: Upset of the week. The Jaguars seem to struggle in these types of games and wind up with a few baffling losses. This game follows the trend.

Titans 22, Jaguars 16.

Miami at Cleveland: The "ugh" game of the week. Could go either way as I think both teams put a solid effort on the field, but I see the Dolphins controlling the clock and getting to Trent Dilfer.

Dolphins 17, Browns 16.

New Orleans at New England: The Patriots will be in a dogfight every week the rest of the season regardless of who they play. The injuries coupled with wearing the mark of being the champs will turn each game into an all-out war. If they survive it will because Tom Brady makes enough plays and the manage to dip deep and find new ways to win each week. New Orleans will make this a game-- look for Viniatieri to win it late.

Patriots 27, Saints 24.

Oakland at Washington: Scary game for the Redskins after what Chris Simms did to them in Tampa. Oakland is good for about 6 wins this year, so they may be due-- both factors that should keep Redskins fans on edge. But Washington repsonded well with their backs against the wall following their embarrassment in New York, and I'll give them the benefit of the doubt again this week. But it won't be easy-- or pretty.

Redskins 24, Raiders 20.

Philadelphia at New York Giants: How symbolic. The Redskins put the Eagles in the coffin. The Cowboys put the lid on top. And now the Giants await with hammer and nails to end the Eagles run of dominance in the NFC East. Make no mistake-- this is a MUST win for Philly-- it's over if they lose and fall to 0-4 in the division at the same time. Even without McNabb, I expect a gutty, hard-fought performance from the Eagles this week. The Giants defense hasn't given up a TD in three weeks-- that's bound to break at some point. But as hard as the Eagles will fight, Eli Manning will bounce back from his horrid game last week, and the Giants will seal that coffin shut.

Giants 22, Eagles 17.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta: This game will leave Redskins fan shaking their heads as the Atlanta defense throttles Simms and the Bucs offense.

Falcons 28, Bucs 12.

Seattle at San Francisco: After this week, Seattle will be the most under the radar 8-2 team in NFL history.

Seahawks 27, 49ers 13.

Buffalo at San Diego: LT and the Chargers got an extra week of rest for this one-- bad news for the Bills.

Chargers 31, Bills 20.

New York Jets at Denver: I've been doubting Denver all year-- I'm beginning to learn my lesson. This game will be over at the half.

Broncos 26, Jets 10.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore: OK, I'm just flat out stupid. The Ravens played the Steelers well a few weeks ago in Pittsburgh. I think Tommy Maddox is awful. I'm going with the upset-- and I'm sure I'll be kicking myself for it later.

Ravens 16, Steelers 13.

Kansas City at Houston: I actually see an entertaining game unfolding as both teams should be able to move the ball. But with their season hanging in the balance, I don't see the Chiefs dropping a game to a one win team.

Chiefs 27, Texans 23.

Minnesota at Green Bay: Everyone in Minnesota is getting all giddy about the Vikings and their renewed hope in the NFC North. Watch as Favre and the Packers take that hope and stomp it into the frozen mud in Green Bay.

Packers 30, Vikings 20.

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kleese ,

pretty much agree with all your picks except the ravens beating the steelers. there are going to be about 15,000 steeter fans at this game and then empty seats to boot. speaking of boots i hope you have a nice pair to wear when you have to kick yourself on this one :D

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My upset pick of the week: Houston over Kansas City.

Houston, despite losing, has been playing "better" as of late and Kansas City is a team that has peaked too early in the season and is currently headed in the wrong direction, due to age and injuries.

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Heres my picks for this week as I posted on my site. I was one game better than Kleese, so I won't hang my head to too much shame. :)

The odds makers are looking at this week as a blowout bonanza. Only 5 games have odds within 5 points. There are a lot of good teams playing at home against some dogs. Personally I find the big spreads harder to wager on. So lets just say this isn’t my favorite week of the season. On to the picks, as always all lines are from Betwwts.com :

Best Bets

Kansas City at Houston (+7)

Trent Green has really struggled of late, but a game vs. the Texans is just what the doctor ordered. Larry Johnson is going to be a star, and the KC offense should take this one over. When you adjust for strength of opponent, Houston has the worst defense in the league, and not just by a little bit.

Kansas City 34 Houston 20

Pittsburgh at Baltimore (+3.5)

The Steelers are down to their 3rd QB, and will probably use Randle-El on a few plays as well. Tommy Maddox struggled immensely in his only start this year. But the Ravens offense stinks, and as long as Maddox doesn’t throw 5 interceptions this should be a cake walk.

Pittsburgh 20 Baltimore 7

Buffalo at San Diego (-10.5)

JP Losman is back! And San Diego is coming off a bye, and ready to go on a tear. This is going to be ugly.

San Diego 34 Buffalo 6

Confident Picks

Philadelphia at NY Giants (-7)

Did anyone watch the Giants last week? For some reason Eli Manning’s performance is being looked at as a one-week fluke. In reality this is a guy who completes 51% of his passes, the Eagles defense will give him fits. Philly stays alive this week.

Philadelphia 20 NY Giants 17

Tampa Bay at Atlanta (-6)

Whatever the heck took over Chris Simms’ body last week won’t last. The Redskins ran all over Tampa’s defense, I see Atlanta continuing the trend.

Atlanta 28 Tampa Bay 10

The Rest

Carolina at Chicago (+3)

After the Giants loss last week, the Panthers are the new most overrated team in the NFC. Look for Dallas to take over the mantle next week.

Chicago 14 Carolina 13

Jacksonville at Tennessee (+4)

Jacksonville is underrated because of that terrible game against Houston a few weeks back. I doubt they’d let it happen again

Jacksonville 24 Tennessee 10

Indianapolis at Cincinnati (+5.5)

Game of the Week. If you ever wanted proof that preseason doesn’t matter, the Colts went 0-5. I’ve read flashbacks to the Pittsburgh game as proof that the Bengals aren’t ready to win this game, but the Colts are a different type of team. If you ever wanted to see what an easy schedule looks like, the Colts are exhibit A (They’ve beat: Bal, Jax, Cle, Ten, SF, StL, Hou (2) and NE). This is the Bengals coming out party.

Cincinnati 31 Indianapolis 27

New Orleans at New England (-9)

The Saints continue their barn storming tour of 2005 in New England. Opponents continue to give it rave reviews.

New England 31 New Orleans 14

Arizona at St. Louis (-9.5)

Kurt Warner goes back to St. Louis. And that’s all I have to say about this game.

St. Louis 24 Arizona 17

Oakland at Washington (-6)

What we do works. Full preview coming tomorrow.

Washington 27 Oakland 20

Detroit at Dallas (-7.5)

Detroit is on a big one game winning streak. Dallas has established themselves as the team most likely to be involved in a game with a shocking ending. Surprisingly we may see one here.

Dallas 24 Detroit 21

Miami at Cleveland (-2)

The most lackluster quarterback matchup of the week may even get worse if Gus Frerotte can’t go. Old Redskin underdog favorite Sage Rosenthels may get the call. I’m going to give the Browns the edge. The fans in Cleveland needs a pick me up after dealing with the 10th anniversary of the original Browns moving all week.

Cleveland 20 Miami 17

Seattle at San Francisco (+12)

Hey 49er fans, looking for the bright side? At least Cody Pickett can go back to helping out on special teams now that Ken Dorsey is back.

Seattle 38 San Francisco 10

NY Jets at Denver (-13)

This week should at least be a bit easier for Brooks Bollinger. Not much, but every little bit counts.

Denver 24 NY Jets 10

Minnesota at Green Bay (-4.5)

The Vikings are coming off a bit upset with over the Giants. They won, but their offense did absolutely nothing. Although Bret Favre has been known to give defenses a few gifts, it isn’t going to happen two weeks in a row.

Green Bay 24 Minnesota 10

Last Week:

Straight Up: 8-6

Against the Spread: 6-7-1

Best Bets: 1-1

Confident Picks: 0-2

The Rest: 5-4-1

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