kleese Posted November 14, 2005 Share Posted November 14, 2005 As always, I've done a lot of figuirng and glancing at shcedules. While we all realize that our destiny is in our own hands, I think this might clear it up even more. If we go 10-6, we're in. Doesn't matter how or when, but if we go 10-6, you can book the playoffs. Of course, there is always the odd chance that this wouldn't work out for us, but I'd say 10-6 would give us about a 95% chance of making the playoffs. Basically, we need to finish second (or better) in the East, and we need to finish above ONE of the three teams in the South. Tampa has the tie-breaker over us now, but their shcedule is pretty brutal with two games against Atlanta, a trip to Carolina, and a road game at New England. I think Tampa is finishing 9-7. Basically, if we go 5-2 the rest of the way, we can pretty much plan on watching the skins the second week in January. 4-3 would leave us at 9-7 and I think that would give us about a 40% chance of getting in this year because the NFC is competitive. I think in the end, the loss at Tampa will be our undoing. My predictions for the last seven: Oakland (win/loss) San Diego (win/loss) What I mean by that is I think we split these two games. At St. Louis (win) At Arizona (win) Dallas (win/loss) Giants (win/loss) at Philly (loss) I think we're going 4-3 the rest of the way, and I think we miss the playoffs by losing the last game at Philly. But if you want to simplify it, root for 5 more wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCS Posted November 14, 2005 Share Posted November 14, 2005 This is Extreme, we live to make things complicated. That said, good analysis of the playoff picture. I will of course, take the simple approach. Win 5 more times. Baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelM Posted November 14, 2005 Share Posted November 14, 2005 We could make this real simple; just win the rest of our games and it's a lock to make the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig Posted November 14, 2005 Share Posted November 14, 2005 Good analysis. And I agree...I don't think the Skins make the playoffs after losing to the Bucs. This game defintely highlighted our weaknesses. And looking at our schedule, I don't see how we win 5 out of our last 7 games. This game was a killer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riggins44 Posted November 14, 2005 Share Posted November 14, 2005 I was thinking about this morning over breakfast. My gut says we'll go 5-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SonnyRules Posted November 14, 2005 Share Posted November 14, 2005 Let's reel off five in a row...that should help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New Posted November 14, 2005 Share Posted November 14, 2005 Ok, after reading your post, I'm officially over the game! Well.....ok, I'm over it. Bring on the Raaaaaaaaaaiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiddddddddddddeeeeeeeeeeerrrrrrrrsssssssssssss!!! The first of 5 more WINS!!! HTTR!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ahhyeaa Posted November 14, 2005 Share Posted November 14, 2005 This is Extreme, we live to make things complicated. That said, good analysis of the playoff picture. I will of course, take the simple approach. Win 5 more times. Just winning 5 more times will not do it. We will have to win the 5 RIGHT GAMES Cowboys,Giants,Eagles,Rams and Cardinals. This would gurantee us a playoff spot period. If we was to lose anyone of the above games our destiny would be in the hands of other teams. If we are going to lose 2 games it better be against the Raiders and Chargers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jkam Posted November 14, 2005 Share Posted November 14, 2005 Kleese, good analysis, and I note that you have us losing to Philly on 1/1/06. I agree that if this is a big game for the Eagles (need to win to get in), I don't like our chances in Philly on New Years. BUT, if Philly already has say 7 losses, and has been eliminated by then, it's a whole different ballgame. They would likely shut down McNabb (why play him with that injury in a meaningless game), and their emotion wouldn't be there. If Philly is 8-7 or worse coming in, then I like our chances in that game a lot. Which means that our season may ultimately be governed by how well Philly does the rest of the way prior to 1/1, and why it might be best for us for them to lose tonight, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Idaho fan Posted November 14, 2005 Share Posted November 14, 2005 Good post. Makes sense. I am not as optimistic as you however. I really felt like this Bucs game was one we needed. I do not think the Skins will go 5-2 the rest of the way. I would love it if they did, but just can't see it happening. This Defense has really let me down. I know there are injuries - but what team does not have injuries? That Buc Offense could not score on the 49ers for crying out loud and they drove it down our throats several times when it really counted. I hope I am wrong - but I see a 9-7 or God forbid an 8-8 season taking shape. :logo: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iheartskins Posted November 14, 2005 Share Posted November 14, 2005 I'm not ready to say "there's always next year," yet, but there's something that's missing with this team this year that doesn't make me think we're going to the playoffs. Don't get me wrong: the offense is rolling, the defense has some great moments, and even the special teams has greatly improved from last year. But there's something else that's not right. The turnovers are crippling us, even if that's not always reflected in the final score. (Just consider how much better we'd be if we had a positive turnover ratio.) We've also suffered some crucially debilitating injuries to important parts of our team. Say what you will, but not having a solid secondary is what's brought our D down a couple notches. Part of the secondary problem has been losses to FA and part of it has been to injury. Without that fundamentally solid secondary, Gregg Williams' D loses a huge piece of what makes it great. We're getting there, but I'm not sure if I'm going to be on us to make the Playoffs just yet. The balls are starting to bounce are way (to a degree), but we have to stop making fundamental mistakes in crunch time. The time when this all starts to roll might be next year. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drex Posted November 14, 2005 Share Posted November 14, 2005 Not being able to get a consistent pass rush from our front four is exposing the limitations of our secondary. IMO, this, as well as the team's knack for committing turnovers, are the fatal flaws that will possibly prevent us from making the postseason. Injuries are a concern as well. Playing without the services of Taylor and Griffin doesn't exactly make the task of the defensive unit any easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skins4eva Posted November 14, 2005 Share Posted November 14, 2005 I'm not ready to say "there's always next year," yet, but there's something that's missing with this team this year that doesn't make me think we're going to the playoffs. Don't get me wrong: the offense is rolling, the defense has some great moments, and even the special teams has greatly improved from last year. But there's something else that's not right. The turnovers are crippling us, even if that's not always reflected in the final score. (Just consider how much better we'd be if we had a positive turnover ratio.) We've also suffered some crucially debilitating injuries to important parts of our team. Say what you will, but not having a solid secondary is what's brought our D down a couple notches. Part of the secondary problem has been losses to FA and part of it has been to injury. Without that fundamentally solid secondary, Gregg Williams' D loses a huge piece of what makes it great. We're getting there, but I'm not sure if I'm going to be on us to make the Playoffs just yet. The balls are starting to bounce are way (to a degree), but we have to stop making fundamental mistakes in crunch time. The time when this all starts to roll might be next year. We'll see. I have to disagree with the analysis of the secondary. What's bringing this defense down is what the front office has been ignoring for years and years--the defensive line. We have absolutely NO ability to rush the passer with four down lineman. Even when we blitz from every direction we can't get to the passer. And it has finally caught up with us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skins4eva Posted November 14, 2005 Share Posted November 14, 2005 Not being able to get a consistent pass rush from our front four is exposing the limitations of our secondary. IMO, this, as well as the team's knack for committing turnovers, are the fatal flaws that will possibly prevent us from making the postseason. Injuries are a concern as well. Playing without the services of Taylor and Griffin doesn't exactly make the task of the defensive unit any easier. Exactly--it starts with the front four. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLongshot Posted November 14, 2005 Share Posted November 14, 2005 I think that the fact that we can't generate a pass rush with our front four hurts the secondary, since we need to bring guys up to blitz. We have a pretty decent secondary, but not one that can live on one-on-one matchups. Having a good pass rush instantly makes your secondary better. Look at the Giants. Jason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iheartskins Posted November 14, 2005 Share Posted November 14, 2005 I have to disagree with the analysis of the secondary. What's bringing this defense down is what the front office has been ignoring for years and years--the defensive line. We have absolutely NO ability to rush the passer with four down lineman. Even when we blitz from every direction we can't get to the passer. And it has finally caught up with us. The defensive line is also a problem, don't get me wrong. But the break down in the secondary is part of why we can't send blitz packages more frequently. When you have to keep your safeties back all of the time, you can never bring them up for the sack. Remember, Sean Springs was out sack leader last year. The effect of the corners on the success of this defense is huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lombardi's_kid_brother Posted November 14, 2005 Share Posted November 14, 2005 After bashing Taylor last week, I'm suddenly his biggest fan. And I have to say, the idea of playing Moss/Porter and Antonio Gates in back to back weeks with an injured Taylor is scary. Before this week, I thought sweeping those two games was realistic. Now, I'm not so sure. A split puts as at 6-5, meaning that we need to go 4-1 in the home stretch to have a real shot. That's a tall order. It seems crazy, but it's entirely possible that we need to sweep these next two home games to stay in the playoff hunt. One loss would be tough to overcome. (Of course two losses would pretty much end the season). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbooma Posted November 14, 2005 Share Posted November 14, 2005 The defensive line is also a problem, don't get me wrong. But the break down in the secondary is part of why we can't send blitz packages more frequently. When you have to keep your safeties back all of the time, you can never bring them up for the sack. Remember, Sean Springs was out sack leader last year. The effect of the corners on the success of this defense is huge. The problem is we have one real starting CB and no real DE's that can get pressure on the QB. The only way we are capable of creating a pass rush is by blitzing and that has been leaving us open for the big play. I was hoping we would make the playoffs this year but we are not as rounded as the other teams ahead of us. We have shown we can not win on the road, yes we won in Dallas but that was luck. When you let a team averaging 17 points and a young QB that hasn't shown much put up 36 points that is not a good sign. Looking ahead: Oakland - W San Diego - L at St Louis - W at Arizona - W Dallas - L NY Giants - W/L depends on where they are at as well leaning on the L at Philly - W/L depends on where they are at, if eliminated we win, if not they do. I do think the experience gained by huge games to decide playoffs will put us in good position next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redskins55 Posted November 14, 2005 Share Posted November 14, 2005 Ya know the Redskins control their own destiny! They really do remind me of the Jacksonville Jaguars. You cant deny that both are good teams. But for some reason they shock teams that they should lose to, and blow games that they should win. Consistancy is the key! One thing to note: The Jaguars went through a similar situation coming off the bye week losing @ St Louis, but have rebounded by winning both games following at home standing at (6-3) . The Redskins can do the same. Its very refreshing to know that they are home for the next 2 and have confidence that they can shred defenses on offense. I see no reason why they shouldnt be 7-4 going into St. Louis and Arizona.With the other NFC East teams playing each other in the upcoming weeks, right now is the perfect time for the Redskins to gain ground and move past the pack. These next 2 are must wins! After the Arizona game, I truly believe we will be 9-4 and poised to win 2 out of 3 NFC East games. My original prediction was 12-4, but since they gave the game to Tampa its more conceivable to expect 11-5 or 10-6 . Either way the Redskins are in the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbooma Posted November 14, 2005 Share Posted November 14, 2005 Looking at the schedule I think the make it or break it game will be St. Louis. Yes they are struggling right now but Bulger is not playing, and will be back for that game. That is going to be a huge game for us, and if we want to make the playoffs are going to have to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pappy1271 Posted November 14, 2005 Share Posted November 14, 2005 It depends on how they snap back after this disapointing loss. If the skins can go in to Fed-Ex next weekend and get a decisive win against Oakland next weekend I feel we have a good chance of going 6-1, San Diego being the loss (LT). If they lose, or squeak one out next weekend then, I hate to say it, I think it will be done. The way our D has been handling the run is shameful, and if we are at .500 heading into the San Diego game with LT running all over everybody. But, at least the team is making headways, and I am excited about the direction the team is going. (gotta be positive about something) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sonsofwashington Posted November 14, 2005 Share Posted November 14, 2005 To me it is even more simple. All division winners will make it, with Carolina or Atlanta taking the wild card. We miss the playoffs this year. IMHO I don't think we are playoff material. We don't play championship ball. Not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gortiz Posted November 14, 2005 Share Posted November 14, 2005 To me it is even more simple. All division winners will make it, with Carolina or Atlanta taking the wild card. We miss the playoffs this year. IMHO I don't think we are playoff material. We don't play championship ball. Not yet. i"m sad, because your flat out right. After looking at the up and down that is the inconsistent first 8 games, its really tough to assume we are going to flip a switch and win the next 5 games. For some crazy reason we can't hold on to the ball on the road. we get shell shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sonsofwashington Posted November 14, 2005 Share Posted November 14, 2005 i"m sad, because your flat out right. After looking at the up and down that is the inconsistent first 8 games, its really tough to assume we are going to flip a switch and win the next 5 games. For some crazy reason we can't hold on to the ball on the road. we get shell shocked. We simply are not better than those teams. I don't see us as the Cinderella story. That's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monte51Coleman Posted November 14, 2005 Share Posted November 14, 2005 Our playoff game was yesterday and we lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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