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WEEK TEN Picks, Pats, and Apologies


kleese

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Last week: 9-5 (third week in a row with that record)

Season: 88-40

Link to last week's thread:

http://extremeskins.com/forums/showthread.php?t=124942

Last week's Pats: I thought the two toughest games on the board were Oakland-KC and Philly-Washington. I got both of those correct. Some people were picking Miami to upset Atlanta, but I figured the Dolphins wouldn't have enough firepower (oh, Gus, where was that throw going?).

Last week's Apologies: I blew my two upset calls-- Green Bay over Pittsburgh and Detroit over Minnesota. The Lions are just miserable right now-- Millen and Mooch are in BIG trouble. I also blew my biggest upset call of Baltimore over Cincinnati. So, IMO, this was one of my worst weeks-- if you're going to lay some upsets on the line, you better get a few of them right. I pulled an 0'fer.

This week's Picks:

Arizona at Detroit: Blah. Yuck. Stay away. Any other thoughts. Ugly as can be, but I guess I'll take the Lions as they've been pretty good at home.

Lions 19, Cardinals 17.

Baltimore at Jacksonville: The Jags are an odd team. Just when you think they are on a roll, they go out and lay an egg like they did a few weeks ago in St. Louis-- and they flirted with disaster last week against the Texans. But I'm not sure how anyone can watch the Ravens and predict that offense to do anything good-- especially against such a stout D in Jacksonville.

Jaguars 20, Ravens 12.

Houston at Indianapolis: I could see an early hangover effect from the Colts big Monday Night win, but they will still pull away before the Texans have a chance to make it a game.

Colts 31, Texans 14.

Kansas City at Buffalo: The Bills are actually only one game behind New England in the East, so this is a big game for them if they have any hopes of making a second half run. But the Chiefs should be sky high after their emotional win and that porous Buffalo run defense will get blasted.

Chiefs 27, Bills 23.

Minnesota at New York Giants: I think the Vikings have "settled down" to a certain extent and I expect them to be more competitive the rest of the way. However, they simply aren't good enough to leave an impression this week. I still think there are holes to exploit in New York, but I don't think Minnesota is the team to do it.

Giants 30, Vikings 17.

New England at Miami: All of a sudden, this looks like a fairly even match-up. Miami is in a similar position to Buffalo in that they are really right there with the Pats in terms of the standings. While New England is limping badly, I just don't see them dropping a key game to a 3-5 team. Brady burns em this week.

Patriots 24, Dolphins 21.

San Francisco at Chicago: Will the Bears be 6-3? Book it.

Bears 20, 49ers 13.

Washington at Tampa Bay: Had the Redskins not gotten blow away two weeks ago, I'd be fearful of a letdown following the emotional win against the Eagles. But I can't see the skins losing focus like that again. The Bucs are a bit desperate right now with their fans getting restless. They will be ready to give the Redskins their best shot. Question is whether or not they have the offensive firepower to move the ball on the Redskins? Washington will lose this game if the offense reverts to some sloppy habits, but it appears as if they have cured those ailments. Expect an ugly game. Expect a victory.

Redskins 16, Bucs 10.

Denver at Oakland: Hmmmm... if Norv really wants to rip out the hearts of Raiders fans, then Oakland kind of needs to win this game to set up a heartbreak in the coming weeks. I'll go with the trends.

Raiders 28, Broncos 26.

New York Jets at Carolina: Memo to Brooks Bollinger--- get a note from your doctor and don't get on the team plane.

Panthers 31, Jets 10.

Green Bay at Atlanta: I could see the Packers sucking it up and making this game on Sunday. I could also see the Packers getting run off the field. I'll go with the middle ground-- and I'll go with the best team in the NFC.

Falcons 24, Packers 16.

St. Louis at Seattle: Upset special of the week. With the Rams committing to Stephen Jackson, I think they keep this game close, and steal it at the end.

Rams 24, Seahwaks 20.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh: Don't laugh-- expect the Browns to make this a game. With Batch at QB, the Steelers offense is limited to say the least. If Dilfer can protect the ball, then Cleveland has a shot to make this respectable....but not to win.

Steelers 19, Browns 13.

Dallas at Philadelphia: Last week TO may have been a distraction. This week he will be a unifying force for the Eagles. Philly will be on point and sky high for this game, looking for revenge following their embarrasment in Dallas a few weeks ago. Dallas is too good to get blown out in this game, but watch as McNabb shines and the Eagles get back on track.

Eagles 27, Cowboys 21.

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Washington will lose this game if the offense reverts to some sloppy habits, but it appears as if they have cured those ailments. Expect an ugly game. Expect a victory.

Redskins 16, Bucs 10.

It's funny how recovering your own fumbles translates into a cure for sloppy habits. If Derrick Dockery and Pierson Prioleau are a half step slower we still have those ailments.

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Kleese was a little quick on the draw this week. Since I did so well last week, I'm going to bump to add mine. :)

Is it just me or this a very tough week? There are few games I’d feel picking this week. That’s the fun of making picks against the spread. The ole odd makers are quick to adjust to any trends that you may pick up on. Onto the games:

Best Bets:

Washington at Tampa Bay (+1)

I hate putting the Redskins up here as a best bet. But I needed something up here. I just can’t see this working out well for Chris Simms.

Washington 21 Tampa Bay 3

San Francisco at Chicago (-13)

Chicago will win this game, but the number is too high. The big weakness in the 49ers is pass defense. I don’t think Kyle Orton and the Bears are the right team to attack that weakness.

Chicago 20 San Francisco 10

Confident Picks:

Kansas City at Buffalo (-2)

I was very close to moving this to a best bet game, but the weather in Buffalo calls for rain and thunderstorms. I still think KC wins this one going away and Larry Johnson has a huge game.

Kansas City 31 Buffalo 17

Green Bay at Atlanta (-9)

The Packers have kept the majority of their games close this year. But the wheels are starting to fall off, too many injuries, and Atlanta is pretty darn good.

Atlanta 30 Green Bay 10

The Rest:

New England at Miami (+2.5)

A big battle for 1st place in the AFC East. It’s especially huge for Miami, which has dropped 2 division games already. New England’s fade continues here.

Miami 21 New England 17

Minnesota at NY Giants (-9)

I still don’t think the Giants are as good as their record. The problem is the Giants record keeps getting better every week. Brad ‘Noodles’ Johnson looked decent in his 1st start for the Vikings

NY Giants 34 Minnesota 14

Arizona at Detroit (-3.5)

File this under “I have no freaking idea”. Both teams are bad. Harrington vs. Warner is just a hideous match up. Edge to the home team, although the booing Harrington gets may offset this a bit. If you get stuck watching this one, at least Neil Rackers is really good.

Detroit 24 Arizona 20

Baltimore at Jacksonville (-6.5)

Jacksonville is the AFC version of the Chicago Bears. In news you’d never expect to hear, Raven fans are overjoyed at the return of Kyle Boller. Well, at least until the end of the 1st quarter.

Jacksonville 20 Baltimore 7

Houston at Indianapolis (-17)

The Jim Sorgi fan club is on high alert. Their boy may finally get some action. As for Houston fans, look at the bright side, next year is only eight games away.

Indianapolis 31 Houston 3

NY Jets at Carolina (-9)

This might not be the best game to begin the Brooks Bollinger era. Although, last week notwithstanding, I’m not sure there would ever be a good week for it to begin. At least he’s not over 40.

Carolina 34 NY Jets 6

Denver at Oakland (+3)

Kerry Collins isn’t exactly setting the world afire despite the all world receiver combo. A win here would be a good start. Denver is on pace to have two back over 1000 yards. Oakland has a tendency to get smoked by backs in their division.

Denver 28 Oakland 27

St. Louis at Seattle (-6.5)

St. Louis gets their passing game back from injuries this week. Marc Bulger, Torry Holt and Issac Bruce are expected to play. Want to know why Shawn Alexander wants to stay in Seattle. New Orleans, Arizona and St. Louis are all ranked in the 20s in terms of rushing defense.

Seattle 28 St. Louis 21

Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-7.5)

This used to be one of the biggest rivalries in the NFL. Cleveland used to be decent too. Charlie Batch gets the call again this week. The spread looks high, but I’ll take Pittsburgh defense doing enough to Trent Dilfer to cover.

Pittsburgh 21 Cleveland 10

Dallas at Philadelphia (-3)

A fun Monday night game. While last weeks Pats-Colts game got all the hype, this game will be closer and more exciting. I’m thinking it comes down to the kickers, I’ll take David Akers over Shaun Suisham.

Philadelphia 20 Dallas 17

Last Week:

Straight Up: 13-1

Against the Spread:

Best Bets 4-0

Confident Picks: 1-2

The Rest: 3-3-1

Overall: 8-5-1

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Denver at Oakland: Hmmmm... if Norv really wants to rip out the hearts of Raiders fans, then Oakland kind of needs to win this game to set up a heartbreak in the coming weeks. I'll go with the trends.

Raiders 28, Broncos 26.

So, we're picking Da Raiduhs to win this week, because that way it'll hurt more when they lose to the Skins?

I like the sound of that. :)

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Beat me to it by a hair Larry. :) That was my favorite line in the whole article...which provided very good analysis I might add.

Those of us that suffered through feeling "Norvous" week after week can certainly identify with this.

I have an Uncle that has been a die hard Rayduh fan since the days of G. Blanda. When they hired Norv, I told him that we would finally get to taste sweet revenge for their win against us in SB XVIII. He called me a couple of weeks ago and told me I was right. Thanks Norv:)

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