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2002 Strength of Schedule


Romo

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I often wonder about these before the season.

Many a time has a team had an easy schedule and by the end of the year, the so called easy teams were making the playoffs and vice versa.

The true strength of schedule is figured after the fact (the season).

Either way, the Skins just need to win (baby).

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All that strength of schedule and pre-season power rankings stuff is a load of crap. No one knows what is gonna happen until the season is underway (unless your Miss Cleo or something, LOL). So that stuff is just there for all us fans to gripe about. I mean who would've thought the Patriots would win the Super Bowl last year before the season started? Not me.....

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I think the Redskins actually have the hardest 2002 schedule, because four of their games are against teams with misleadingly low 2001 standings. If you correct for these distortions, the Redskins have by far the hardest schedule.

The four games are Dallas (5-11), Dallas, Indianapolis (6-10) and Tennessee (7-9). Each of these teams are likely to be winning 3 - 4 more games in 2002, and Dallas always plays us tough.

Strength of schedule is critically important to the outcome of a season. I posted at length about this, with evidence, some weeks ago.

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Originally posted by skinsblitz

All that strength of schedule and pre-season power rankings stuff is a load of crap. No one knows what is gonna happen until the season is underway (unless your Miss Cleo or something, LOL). So that stuff is just there for all us fans to gripe about. I mean who would've thought the Patriots would win the Super Bowl last year before the season started? Not me.....

OK, you've mixed some truth and some baloney together in a tasty sandwich.

True: Pre-season predictions about power rankings and strength of schedule are often very inaccurate.

Baloney: Strength of schedule isn't important. It's actually overwhelmingly important, but we don't know the true strength of schedule until the season is complete. At that time, you can clearly demonstrate the effect of strong and weak schedules. To use your example, the Patriots had the fourth easiest schedule in the league in 2001, which goes a long way to explain their success.

By contrast, Detroit and Carolina had the two hardest schedules in 2001, and they finished . . . with the two worst records in the league.

In fact, of the 13 teams with the toughest schedules in 2001, only one team finished with a winning record -- Tampa Bay, and that team fired its coach at the end of a 9-7 season.

What about the good teams? Five teams finished 2001 with a 12-4 record or better. All five teams were among the 10 teams with the easiest 2001 schedules.

If the Redskins win big in 2002, they will do so against daunting odds.

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Atlanta Skins Fan, they can only use last years performance as a basis for the strength of schedule. But how are we to know that a team that finished 12-4 last year won't bomb this year. We have no idea. A good example would be ABC's MNF. They usually get the top game of the week based on last seasons records. Usually what happens though is that when it comes time to play the game both teams have terrible records and the game isn't as good. That's why the NFL was contemplating using a "flexible" schedule for MNF. With the NFL scheduling a game for MNF a couple weeks in advance. That was until the other 2 networks started complaining that MNF would take their best games each week. That would tell you that basing strength of schedule off of last years records is a crap shoot at best.

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Atlanta Skins Fan, you make a very valid point. I agree that the strength of schedule IS important as far as making the next season's schedule is concerned. I was just saying that all these pre-season rankings and stuff is like trying to predict the future. It's not an exact science. Just my 2 cents....

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Originally posted by TheKurp

Strength of schedule ISN'T important.

What's important is the strength of the opposing team on the day you're playing them.

This was the point I was trying to make when it came to strength of schedule. I agree with you 100% TheKurp.

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All of the NFC East teams play the same opponents minus two of them.

Common opponents: San Fran, StL, Ariz, Seattle, Tenn, Indy, Jax, Houston.

The Skins get New Orleans, Green Bay.

The Eagles get Tampa Bay & Chicago.

The Cowboys get Carolina and Detroit.

The Giants get Atlanta and Minnesota.

If those four teams were equivalent, which they aren't, the Eagles would have the easiest and the Cowboys the hardest (since the Eagles count against everyone and the Cowboys would be a positive).

So really, when comparing schedules between the teams that matter, the only games that make any difference are those listed. The Skins and Eagles definitely have the harder road for those two games. The Cowboys got a gift. Who knows about the Minn and Atlanta.

Plus you have home and away differences. But like everyone said, big deal. You need to win.

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Originally posted by GrapeApe

All of the NFC East teams play the same opponents minus two of them.

Common opponents: San Fran, StL, Ariz, Seattle, Tenn, Indy, Jax, Houston.

The Skins get New Orleans, Green Bay.

The Eagles get Tampa Bay & Chicago.

The Cowboys get Carolina and Detroit.

The Giants get Atlanta and Minnesota.

Good info, GrapeApe.

It doesn't make our schedule any easier, but at least we've got company in our tough schedules -- the Eagles schedule is similar. That will help in the race for the division title.

Latest ASF prediction: the Redskins win the NFC East or miss the playoffs altogether -- no wildcard entry for us. Our schedule is too tough, and there are too many other good teams in the NFC competing for only two wildcard spots.

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Hey, speaking of the schedule rotation, does anybody know where the full future divisional opponent rotation for the Skins might be available for viewing? It's not on NFL.com that I can find. The Packers, bless 'em, have their rotation opponents through 2008 or some similar time up on their page.

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IMHO, strength of schedule can only be used in measuring one aspect of how good a coach is. I believe that good coaches tend to win more games you'd never though they'd win than loose games you expect them to win.

Mr. Gibbs was a master at this, especially in the big years. He rarely seemed to loose games I thought he should win (albiet, a few gave me some premature gray) while somehow often beating opponents I thought we'd struggle with.

I guess this is an indication of how good you are in the big ones.

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Strength of schedule usually means excuse for not meeting or succedding expectations.

It's all about number of key injuries.

If we can go thru the season with minimal to none key injuries then the chances of going deep in the playoffs is a probabality

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