Om Posted October 20, 2005 Share Posted October 20, 2005 http://www.redskins.com/news/newsDetail.jsp?id=11529 Expectations, Bounces & Meltdowns October 20, 2005 By Mark Steven I have a friend who’s not a Redskins fan. Clearly a mutual character flaw situation. Regardless, I found myself telling this flawed friend earlier this week that I’m in my Redskin glory this week. There was a pause. “Dude,” quoth he. “You guys have lost 2 straight, your star linebacker is being turned into a martyr, you can’t hold on to the [lovemaking] ball, and your head coach is melting down. Have you finally lost it?” I smiled to myself, drew a deep breath, and prepared to go point by point. Say what you want, the man did hit the right buttons. But then I stopped. Hey, I thought, if I’m going to crank up the synapses anyway, I might as well get credit for it. “Tell you what,” I said, cool as you please. “Tune in Thursday and read all about it.” I can be shameless. To the matter at hand, covered this week in shotgun fashion. * It has been interesting indeed, for an avowed Big Picture guy, to watch the expectations for the 2005 Redskins change week by week. First, they surprised everyone but themselves by starting 3-0. Then, they endured back-to-back, final-play type road losses in two venues any visiting team would do well to win, in which they went toe-to-toe with two playoff contenders and had the best of play everywhere other than the final scoreboard. Having won twice at home already, and heading into a home game against, shall we say, something other than a current NFL heavyweight (sorry, Coach), it is not unreasonable to believe the Redskins capable of emerging 4-2, and off to their best start in five years. And yet there remains, among a quite vocal sampling of their collective fandom, sentiment that they are not “getting it done.” That they are somehow a disappointment. Depending on my mood at any given time, I find this thought process anywhere from mildly amusing to utterly confounding. As of this writing, conveniently, I simply find it an apt jumping-off point. Before the season started, most seemed to agree that the two greatest concerns about this team were quarterback play in particular, and the passing game in general. Well, had we conducted a poll of all Redskins fans on Opening Day morning, September 11, 2005, and asked for their thoughts on potentially heading into Week Five with their team 2-0 at home and 3-2 overall; with a quarterback playing at Pro Bowl level; sporting the #6 (within 9 yards/game of #2) offense and #5 defense in football; having broken The Curse in Dallas in storybook fashion; having the top-yardage receiver in football (with apologies to a certain Mr. Holt, who has required an extra game and 11 more catches to compile seven total yards more than Mr. Moss), and having gained a large measure of the “respect” fans seem to so ravenously crave, both around the league and throughout most of the sentient media...one suspects they would have voted overwhelmingly, “Yes, please.” Yes, each of those points is subject to sub-texts and parsing. That’s not the point. The point is, five weeks ago, you’d have been hard pressed indeed to find a fan of this team who wouldn’t have jumped at the chance to see this team precisely where it stands today. Could they be better? Of course. Is there room for improvement? You bet. But to suggest, as many have this week, that the 2005 Washington Redskins are in any meaningful way a disappointment, given the expectations even the most optimistic of fans had for them just a few short weeks ago is, well...hard to fathom. Expectations are fine. They should go up as the team finds success. Watching the baseline expectations for this team shifting so dramatically upward, in so short a time, says only one thing to me. We’re getting close. * I have been a LaVar Arrington guy since the day he was drafted. My son wears his jersey, due in no small part to having listened to his old man for the last five years. LaVar has delivered more “whoo” hits than any Redskin I can remember. I have long marveled at his physical gifts, appreciated his unique perspectives, and smiled at the twinkle in his eye and laconic speech. However, I have also come to believe, over these last few frustrating weeks of constant intrigue, that the whispers we’ve heard all these years -- from people who should know -- about his apparent struggle to play consistently within a structure, have merit. I have come to believe that his current situation is almost entirely of his own making. Tens of thousands of words have been written about Mr. Arrington of late, however, so I won’t pile on other that to say this: When and if the man does play again for this team, no one will be a more intrigued observer than yours truly. Because when and if it happens (for any reason other than injury to current starter Warrick Holdman) it will mean that whatever has kept him off the field is no longer an issue, and that we’re about to be treated to the spectacle of a healthy, focused and probably quite motivated LaVar Arrington roaming sideline-to-sideline creating havoc. I doubt there’s a Redskins fan anywhere -- at any point along the spectrum of the debate -- who does not wish to see that happen. * You hear people say, “the Redskins aren’t creating turnovers, man.” Well...that’s true. But it doesn’t paint the whole picture. This being one key place where you will not find the Redskins among league leaders, I believe it merits some attention and, hopefully, perspective. If you’ll indulge me a moment: Chicago -- Redskins fumble four times, lose two. Bears fumble thrice, lose one. Dallas -- Redskins fumble once, lose it. Cowboys fumble three times, recover them all. Seattle -- Redskins do not fumble. Seahawks fumble once, recover it. Denver -- Redskins fumble once, lose it. Broncos fumble once, recover it. Kansas City -- Redskins fumble 3 times, lose them all. Chiefs fumble twice, recover them both. The math: Washington has fumbled 9 times, and lost 7. Their opponents have fumbled 9 times, and lost a total of 1. Ein. Uno. The Redskins have not been fumbling any more than their opponents, they have simply been unable to recover the slippery little [illegitimate offspring]. When the Redskins fumble, the ball bounces to the other guys. Sometimes like it has eyes. And when the other guys fumble, darn if the ball doesn’t also find its way back into their arms. I hate when that happens. And it happens over an over. One could try to make a case that it’s about hustle, I suppose, but having watched each of these games and the fumbles in question several times, to my eye it’s been more the unpredictable bouncing of a funny-shaped ball. The percentages will even out. Lost interceptions are harder to track in that they’re subjective (“should” he have caught it?), but one suspects that at some point, Gregg Williams’ charges will stop having passes slip through their fingers...and perhaps on those occasions they do catch them, the plays won’t be negated by razor-close penalty calls. The percentage theme stands. Now, here’s the cool part: Washington is proving to be a true statistical anomaly; a team with a lousy turnover differential that is still, somehow, managing to win more games than they lose. With apologies for leaning on more stats...sometimes they really do tell the story: At -11 in turnover differential, New Orleans stands 2-4. At -9, St. Louis is 2-4. At -8, the Redskins are 3-2. At -7, Houston is 0-5, Minnesota 1-4, and Baltimore 2-3. At -6, San Francisco is 1-4, and New England 3-3. At -5, Tennessee is 2-4. At -4, Green Bay is 1-4, Arizona 1-4, and Miami 2-3. At -2, Seattle is 4-2,, and the NY Jets are 2-4. At -1, Chicago is 2-3. The collective record of the 15 teams with negative turnover differentials: 28-53. Only two of the fifteen have winning records; the Seahawks at -2, and the Redskins, far worse (3rd worst in the league) at -8. I don’t know what this says to anyone else, but to me it says there’s something different about Washington. Something potentially dangerous. For a team to overcome such a glaring disparity in the single most telling statistic relative to NFL football, and not only be winning, but also without exception within a couple of plays of winning on the road against good teams, means that when the percentages finally do start to even out, as common sense suggests they will, this team is going to be very difficult to beat. In these days of statistical overload, it is understandable if some are skeptical that turnover differential is the single most reliable major statistical barometer of NFL success. Fair enough. I’m something of a skeptic myself. Happily, in 2002-03, the NFL did a study, over an 18-game stretch, on just how big a factor it really was. Here is what they found: With turnover differential in a game even, the cumulative won/lost record was 58-58. Seems symmetrical enough. When teams were +1, their record was 77-31-1. At +2, it was 75-13, and at +3 or better, 70-5. Hard to miss the significance. It’s also worth looking at it in the converse: At -1 in turnover differential, teams went 31-77-1. At -2, they went 13-75. And at -3, or worse, they staggered home at 5-70. Don’t worry, we’re almost done with the numbers. Through 5 games in 2005, Washington is averaging roughly -1.6/game in turnover differential. Those numbers, as well as history, strongly suggest that their record should be -- according to my trusty abacus -- somewhere around 1-4. “Just” numbers? Perhaps. But compelling. This is not a bad team simply giving the ball away. This is a team solid on both sides of the ball still learning to get out of it’s own way, and suffering through an anomalous statistical run. Absent a rift in the very fabric of the universe, the bouncing ball is likely to start finding its way into friendlier hands, the percentages are going to begin to even out, and the Redskins are going to start climbing up that differential scale. Says here that when they do, in the words of the entity formerly known as David Bowman, “something is going to happen.” What, you ask? “Something wonderful.” * Now about the alleged Gibbsian meltdown. With the two tough losses at Denver and Kansas City, in which they almost overcame negative turnover differentials of -1 and -3, respectively, the Redskins gave strong indication that the only thing holding them back from being a potentially elite team in this league is themselves. They know the litany better than we do: the lingering untimely penalties, those infernal unrecovered fumbles, the dropped interceptions, the poor angles and/or tackling on one or two plays a game that are costing touchdowns in otherwise solid defensive performances. Think those things make you mad as a fan? Imagine how they are playing in the locker room. And in the Head Coach’s office. Watching Joe Gibbs get testy with the media this past week doesn’t have me concerned. Instead, as a fan of his team, it has me grinning ear to ear...because I’m pretty sure I know what the testiness means. I think it means, a year-and-a-half into his return after an eleven-year hiatus, that one of the great coaches in the history of the game is 100% back in the groove. I think it means that, just as he did twenty years ago when leading his team to unprecedented heights, he is once again fully engaged and quite intentionally putting himself “out front” for his team -- making himself the lightning rod. And I’m 100% convinced that his passion, commitment and resolve are resonating in the locker room. There was a special bond, a special chemistry, on those championship teams of yore, one that those of us fortunate enough to have lived through haven’t forgotten. Watching as Coach works the officials, works the press, and leaves zero doubt as to just how seriously he’s taking this two game losing streak thing...well, I’m growing more convinced by the day that maybe you really can go home again. So as presumptuous as it may be to consider the possibility this should be heard in a certain fully-engaged, bespectacled legend’s office, and bring down his inspired wrath: I don’t think Sunday is going to be a very good day to be a 49er. Hail. :helmet: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrocrb96 Posted October 20, 2005 Share Posted October 20, 2005 Did you actually write all of this or does copy & paste work well for you? LOL! geesh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Pepper Posted October 20, 2005 Share Posted October 20, 2005 Dam Om almost made me cry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLongshot Posted October 20, 2005 Share Posted October 20, 2005 the [lovemaking] ball the slippery little [illegitimate offspring] Dude, love your ball, but don't LOVE your ball. Good article, man. Sometimes, we expect everything to happen now. That's why it is so frustrating when we beat ourselves with stupid stuff. Then again, we have plenty of experience with that... Jason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riggo-toni Posted October 20, 2005 Share Posted October 20, 2005 Awesome read, my man!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orlskinsfan Posted October 20, 2005 Share Posted October 20, 2005 Nice Job Om! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RF4L Posted October 20, 2005 Share Posted October 20, 2005 Nice, Om, very nice. :cool: :applause: :applause: However, I think I'm a little wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba9497 Posted October 20, 2005 Share Posted October 20, 2005 Did you actually write all of this or does copy & paste work well for you? LOL! geesh! I'm the copy & paste man Om is 100% orginal.... and talented Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isifhan Posted October 20, 2005 Share Posted October 20, 2005 Very nice indeed. Great read as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poteet Posted October 20, 2005 Share Posted October 20, 2005 I'm an avid reader, and that was honestly one of the best articles I've ever read. Granted I'm a bit biased (being a huge Skins fan and all), but that was oustanding. And I don't think the City paper writers are capable of such eloquence! Great work Mark... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSF Posted October 20, 2005 Share Posted October 20, 2005 Wow! Can't wait for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dirk Diggler Posted October 20, 2005 Share Posted October 20, 2005 Good read. Should be required reading for the chicken littles calling for everyone's head. :applause: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oriolesfan93p Posted October 20, 2005 Share Posted October 20, 2005 WOW, awesome article, I loved every word, it was what I have been trying to say to all my co-workers(most of whom are eagles fans) about what is really going on, but they don't want to hear it. Every time I try to talk to them its "no turnovers" this and "lost 2 in a row" that, and "you guys got lucky at Dallas and vs Seattle." I just can't wait to see the looks on their faces when the percentages finally do even out on our side and we are the ones leading the east, not the lame little birds to our north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swift Posted October 20, 2005 Share Posted October 20, 2005 Good analysis. Let's hope, though, that the reason we are losing the turnover battle is rotten luck and not something more substantive than that (e.g., GW's system not being conducive to producing TO's). Gibbs said he was going force the issue this week and be more creative in turnover drills. Hopefully we'll see the fruits of his labor on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrazyLikeAFox87 Posted October 20, 2005 Share Posted October 20, 2005 This law of averages regarding fumble recoveries is something I mentioned on one of my British NFL websites I contribute to. The numbers have to even out over the season, and when they do, we will be hard to beat. Hell, we're hard to beat with the poor turnover differential. Om, would you mind if I copied onto this other website? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC_Skins Posted October 20, 2005 Share Posted October 20, 2005 Man I am fired up... Come on SUNDAY !!!! HTTR OM :point2sky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkinsGuy Posted October 20, 2005 Share Posted October 20, 2005 Great stuff, OM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BORICUASKIN Posted October 20, 2005 Share Posted October 20, 2005 Great read as always! Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDane Posted October 20, 2005 Share Posted October 20, 2005 We are going 14-2 and winning the Super Bowl, and if you don't know, you better aks somebody. Or, at least, talk to Om. :point2sky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Om Posted October 20, 2005 Author Share Posted October 20, 2005 Good analysis. Let's hope, though, that the reason we are losing the turnover battle is rotten luck and not something more substantive than that (e.g., GW's system not being conducive to producing TO's). Gibbs said he was going force the issue this week and be more creative in turnover drills. Hopefully we'll see the fruits of his labor on Sunday. Well, by noting that both the Skins and their opponent have fumbled the exact same number of times, but the difference in turnover differential seems to be mostly about who has recovered them, I tried to make the case that GW's system is, to date, proving every bit as conducive to producing turnovers as who we've been playing against. It's just that damn slippery orb being difficult. Not sure I made the case ... but there it is. This law of averages regarding fumble recoveries is something I mentioned on one of my British NFL websites I contribute to. The numbers have to even out over the season, and when they do, we will be hard to beat. Hell, we're hard to beat with the poor turnover differential.Om, would you mind if I copied onto this other website? Not at all. Just please be sure not to run afoul of any forum rules out there (I've heard that some sites, for some reason, eschew allowing material from certain other sites to be posted---go figure). And if you don't mind, please also link back to redskins.com and/or ES. Ahem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dpike619 Posted October 20, 2005 Share Posted October 20, 2005 Good read, that's exactly what I've been thinking with regards to the turnovers. I mean the turnovers that we've had have been more flukes than anything. It's not like Brunell is throwing a lot of picks or Portis has a bad case of the fumbles, so it's not really likely that we will continue to turn the ball over so much. Once the turnovers stop our offense will be unstoppable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sknzfan Posted October 20, 2005 Share Posted October 20, 2005 My thought's EXACTLY ! I've seen the Worst of the Skins' ...been a Fan since `67.....I see the Fireback in Gibb's Belly....and when the Team figures out how hard Joe's working their gonna want too work their Collective Butt's off for him ! Here's to a Bright Future !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
China Posted October 20, 2005 Share Posted October 20, 2005 So why hasn't this thread been stickied yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
21dave Posted October 20, 2005 Share Posted October 20, 2005 One of the best descriptions about how most fans feel about LaVar. Also a very compelling read. Loved the part about Coach Gibbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DieselPwr44 Posted October 20, 2005 Share Posted October 20, 2005 Damn, I'm disappointed. No mention whatsoever about steak and eggs with a frosty beer............ Great read as always Om. To tell the truth, when Coach "went off" Monday, I wasn't worried either. It fired me up!!! I can only imagine the effect it had on the lockerroom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.