wskin44 Posted October 11, 2005 Share Posted October 11, 2005 This summer I was bored and did some analysis of NFL stats to try to determine what would best predict which teams make the playoffs. I was curious about what kinds of things the Redskin coaches would be working on during the offseason. I came up with Net Yards per Play. Some teams have great offenses and some teams have great defenses but in balance a team has to be gaining more each offensive play than they are losing each defensive play. Simple but also the best predictor of who makes the playoffs. In 2004 8 of the top 9 NY/P teams made the playoffs. All 12 playoff teams were in the top 17 NY/P teams. Net turnovers usually explained discrepencies. After 5 weeks this season the logic still follows. If the season were to end today 8 of the top 13 NY/P teams would make the playoffs and two others would be tied for playoff spots. Those 13 teams have combined records of 38 wins and 23 losses. The Redskins rank 2nd in the NFL gaining .66 yards every time the ball is snapped from scrimmage. Last season the Redskins ranked 14th gaining .06 yards per play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dfitzo53 Posted October 11, 2005 Share Posted October 11, 2005 Interest stat, although it seems kinda like common sense. It's one way of documenting the field position battle I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wskin44 Posted October 11, 2005 Author Share Posted October 11, 2005 Yea it is common sense but it also lets you see thru the hype of the mediots. It's a good measure of the basic strength of a team. Sometimes the mediots rag on some teams and ballyhoo others but the relative stats show otherwise. It was clear to me that the Skins didn't have that far to go to become a good team. Likewise all the hoopla surrounding offseason mediot favorites like Arizona, Minnesota, Detroit and Oakland didn't make sense because they had so far to go to improve these numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chomerics Posted October 11, 2005 Share Posted October 11, 2005 I was always impressed with the quality wins quotient (the number of wins against teams with winning records). There is a number of football sites whihc list rankings on a number of statistics, and they are pretty good. Go here for a good analysis on both quality wins and overall preformance. . . http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Article.php?Page=411 The other one is the DVOA by football prospectus (much like baseball prospectus and Money Ball) Here is their formula explained. . . http://www.footballoutsiders.com/methods.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wskin44 Posted October 11, 2005 Author Share Posted October 11, 2005 Thanks. I've thought about applying the quality win formula to my NY/P stat. The second site was primarily interested in individual performance for fantasy football. If you are a Pat fan it might interest you to know that the Pats ranked fourth last year with .37 NY/P. The iggles were 9th with .25 NY/P. This year the Pats are 12th so far with .31 NY/P. P'burgh is at .35 and the Colts are .36. So you can see that it is very tight. Team Net Y/P Tampa Bay 0.86 Washington 0.66 Seattle 0.61 Cincinnati 0.60 Arizona 0.58 Dallas 0.58 Indianapolis 0.36 Baltimore 0.35 Miami 0.35 Philadelphia 0.35 Pittsburgh 0.35 New England 0.31 Jacksonville 0.21 Green Bay 0.18 St. Louis 0.16 New Orleans 0.09 Atlanta 0.05 San Diego 0.05 Tennessee -0.06 Denver -0.08 Chicago -0.11 Kansas City -0.18 Oakland -0.24 Carolina -0.31 Cleveland -0.35 New York (A) -0.46 New York (N) -0.56 Minnesota -0.56 Detroit -0.63 Buffalo -0.65 Houston -1.14 San Francisco -1.85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chomerics Posted October 12, 2005 Share Posted October 12, 2005 Thanks. I've thought about applying the quality win formula to my NY/P stat. The second site was primarily interested in individual performance for fantasy football. If you are a Pat fan it might interest you to know that the Pats ranked fourth last year with .37 NY/P. The iggles were 9th with .25 NY/P. This year the Pats are 12th so far with .31 NY/P. P'burgh is at .35 and the Colts are .36. So you can see that it is very tight. Team Net Y/P Tampa Bay 0.86 Washington 0.66 Seattle 0.61 Cincinnati 0.60 Arizona 0.58 Dallas 0.58 Indianapolis 0.36 Baltimore 0.35 Miami 0.35 Philadelphia 0.35 Pittsburgh 0.35 New England 0.31 Jacksonville 0.21 Green Bay 0.18 St. Louis 0.16 New Orleans 0.09 Atlanta 0.05 San Diego 0.05 Tennessee -0.06 Denver -0.08 Chicago -0.11 Kansas City -0.18 Oakland -0.24 Carolina -0.31 Cleveland -0.35 New York (A) -0.46 New York (N) -0.56 Minnesota -0.56 Detroit -0.63 Buffalo -0.65 Houston -1.14 San Francisco -1.85 I've seen that stat before, but I can't remember what website used it. . . Another interesting one is the Aikman efficiency statistic. It has the skins as #1 http://www.nfl.com/news/story/7833976 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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