TSN: Week 5 primer: First quarter isn't the end

[bubba9497]

Week 5 primer: First quarter isn't the end

http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=23243

With a quarter of the NFL season about to be behind us, I think there is no better time to bring up the importance/lack thereof, of, well, the first quarter.

Teams always talk about how crucial playing with an early lead is. The top six teams in first-quarter scoring this season prove that -- the Giants, Chiefs, Patriots, Falcons, Bengals and Steelers are all in the playoff hunt. But, the four teams rounding out the top 10 -- the Titans, Vikings, Raiders and 49ers -- all share 1-3 records. Strangely, the NFC East archrival and veteran-coached Redskins (3-0) and Cowboys (2-2) have both gone scoreless in the first quarter this season.

What does that magical statistical finding prove? Games/seasons aren't necessarily won and lost by what happens in the opening 15 minutes/four games. We've got a long way to go, which means I've got to keep on pickin'. ...

NFC GAME OF THE WEEK

Seattle at St. Louis. The Rams' defense is reeling after being peeled in the Big Apple, as they were rotten against the run and the pass. Good time for Shaun Alexander to come to town, right?

As for the Seahawks, they are reeling after losing in overtime at Washington, losing a chance at a rare road win. Good time to go to the unfriendly confines of the Edward Jones Dome, right?

Alexander will be fed often and feast on another front seven, but while the 'Hawks backup wideouts will be open, the noise of the home crowd and aggressiveness of the Rams' scheme will save them against inconsistent Matt Hasselbeck.

Offensively, if the Rams could just protect the ball better -- a big if -- they would be nearly unstoppable. While you can expect more mistakes and giveaways, Marc Bulger throwing to Torry Holt and the rest of the team's track-star receivers will compensate with enough big plays. They will also get a late takeaway of their own to seal the deal. Rams 27, Seahawks 19.

AFC GAME OF THE WEEK

Pittsburgh at San Diego. The Chargers don't get the chance to host many Monday night games, so you can bet there will be some extra oomph for their players, especially with how they smacked around the Super Bowl champs on the road last week. Their offense is rolling with a simple philosophy -- get the ball in the hands of its most talented players.

LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates have the advantage in every matchup, including vs. a tough Steelers defense. And the Chargers' defensive strength, stopping the run, is oriented to stop a conservative Steelers offense. I see the visitors trying to break from that with a few big plays to Hines Ward and Antwaan Randle El, but the consistency and balance of new-school Martyball will pay off in prime time. Chargers 24, Steelers 17.

REBOUND OF THE WEEK

New England at Atlanta. I end up picking the Pats every week, because when they lose it's a shock, and it only makes me believe that they won't lose again the next week. This is the biggest litmus test to that theory, however.

At some point, when you need to play both Guss Scott and Chad Scott in your secondary, injuries are officially a problem. Tedy Bruschi's takeaways and Rodney Harrison's hard-hitting run support have been difficult to replace.

Now, Bill Belichick's defensive scheming and personnel depth face Michael Vick, Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett, a 200-yard rushing machine. Through all the game film they watch of DVD, there is one reprieve, however -- Atlanta's receivers are about as good as what the Pats have left at defensive back, so look for Belichick to use plenty of overloaded fronts to stop the run.

They need to maintain that methodical approach on the other side of the ball. Corey Dillon is a big, powerful runner who can wear down the Falcons' speedy yet undersized front seven. Once that happens, they will be slowed down just enough against Tom Brady, whose quick release will lead to some game-changing passes off play-action. Patriots 24, Falcons 20.

FELINES OF THE WEEK.

Bengals at Jaguars. Although I'm allergic to cats, I really like both of these young teams. I liked the Jaguars more last season, but I think the Bengals have turned the corner more quickly this season. As Cincy's defense has improved enough to be just a few notches below the Jags', the big difference lies on offense.

Carson Palmer and Byron Leftwich are both confident leaders with strong arms, but Palmer has the more consistent supporting cast, especially at wide receiver. The Jags often can drag along, waiting for a Leftwich-Jimmy Smith connection, while when Palmer isn't spreading the ball around downfield, he can hand off to Rudi Johnson, who can eventually wear down the hosts' strong front four. Cincinnati 21, Jacksonville 16.

SHOOTOUT OF THE WEEK

New Orleans at Green Bay. The Saints have started to put some things together on both sides of the ball and with Deuce McAllister and their wide receivers, they will be a load for the Pack's poor tackling, poor covering defense. Brett Favre, like the Saints, playing with a heavy heart after being affected by Hurricane Katrina, is almost single-armedly keeping his overmatched team in games.

Miscues and injuries have plagued both teams, but I expect both to play solid offense, the Saints as a newly confident team and the Packers as a very desperate 0-4 team. Desperation wins out -- barely. Packers 28, Saints 27.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

New York Jets over Tampa Bay. Yes, the Jets are in offensive disarray after losing Chad Pennington, but all of a sudden, with no dominant AFC East rival, with just one win, they will be right back in division race. The one thing that hasn't let them down is defense, and that will save them on Sunday.

The Bucs have been winning on the edge in their 4-0 start, but the Jets have the front seven and secondary personnel to cause problems for Brian Griese, especially if Cadillac is parked. Herman Edwards knows the Bucs' defense well, and with old hand Vinny Testaverde, look for a versatile game plan and an inspired all-around effort. Jets 20, Buccaneers 17.

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Indianapolis over San Francisco. Um, if you haven't noticed, the Colts could be in this category every single week. But if you can use them only once, this is the week. This is one of the best matchups for a team, ever.

The 49ers' two biggest problems: Stopping the pass and stopping the pass rush. Let's see, offensively, the Colts have this Peyton Manning guy, along with Marvin Harrison, who are about to pass former 49ers Steve Young and Jerry Rice in the TD record books. Defensively, they have this Dwight Freeney guy, who gives tackles nightmares hours before kickoff. It's amazing to think the 49ers once won a Super Bowl by this same score: Colts 55, 49ers 10.

REST OF THE WEEK

Baltimore at Detroit. The scheduling powers that be are helping the punchless Ravens with equally punchless opponents, but expect the Lions to show a little more roar with their promising running and receiving talent this week. Playing at home will calm down Joey Harrington enough against the swarming charge of Ray Lewis and friends, while everything will continue to go wrong for Anthony Wright on the road. Lions 17, Ravens 13.

Miami at Buffalo. J.P. Losman and/or Kelly Holcomb will struggle against Nick Saban's hybrid defensive scheming, and the Bills' own defense, struggling with injuries, can expect a run-heavy dose of rookie Ronnie Brown, who busted out in Week 3 and will be motivated to keep it up with Ricky Williams' return looming. Dolphins 20, Bills 17.

Tennessee at Houston. What better way for Houston's current team to finally get into the win column than against Houston's former team? The Titans' young secondary will help David Carr and Andre Johnson get on track, while the Texans' young defense will continue to remain stingy in the red zone. Those few saved points against Steve McNair will help owner Bob McNair and the hosts celebrate their first victory of the season. Texans 27, Titans 23.

Chicago at Cleveland. Both teams will be fresh after their respective byes, but the Browns' legs will have a little more juice, jacked up in search of their first home win under Romeo Crennel, who along with counterpart Lovie Smith have bright head-coaching futures. But Trent Dilfer's experience advantage over rookie counterpart Kyle Orton on the field will make for a TD advantage on the scoreboard. Browns 23, Bears 16.

Philadelphia at Dallas. The second best matchup of the week is in favor of the defending NFC champs. Defensively, their blitzes, stunts and coverage will keep Drew Bledsoe in check. Offensively, Donovan McNabb will stay hot on the road, calm, cool and well protected to pick apart an overmatched Cowboys' secondary, which gets Terrell Owens in between Randy Moss and Plaxico Burress. Eagles 34, Cowboys 21.

Carolina at Arizona. With a confident Josh McCown throwing to Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, the Cardinals will have good success moving the ball between the 20s. But with no running game, they can't do much in the red zone -- while Neil Rackers is nailing everything, that's four points lost on nearly every trip. The Panthers, however, with Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster supporting Jake Delhomme, can move the ball well anywhere on the field. Panthers 24, Cardinals 20.

Washington at Denver. Someone wise told me the Redskins' 3-0 start is much like the crosstown Nationals' start -- they are always winning the NFL equivalent of one-run games, and eventually, you can't do that every week. The Broncos, like the crosstown Rockies, have more offensive firepower in Denver, and with Mike Anderson carrying the torch for the running game, it's taken the heat off Jake Plummer. Even if former Redskin Champ Bailey misses another game, his defense will be fine after it works to stuff former Bronco Clinton Portis. Broncos 20, Redskins 10.

BYES OF THE WEEK

The Chiefs are looking for answers after being routed in Week 3 and losing a big lead in Week 4, but they have winnable games against Washington and Miami before a big Week 8 division game at San Diego. ...

Pop quiz: Name the league's highest scoring team. It's the Giants, at 34 a pop. With its talented offense thriving and its defense struggling, it's probably more shootouts ahead. Eli Manning's team quickly is taking the identity of what his big brother's team used to be. ...

I expected the Raiders to have a more prolific offense, but while Randy Moss gets the big plays, they're relying on LaMont Jordan more. It helps that their defense has improved to a point where they don't always need to light up the scoreboard. Despite being 1-3, I think they can get hot in a hurry. ...

The Vikings also stand 1-3, so the bye week, plus their first two games against the weak NFC North competition after it, are just what they needed. But if rest and readjustments don't do enough to right their ship quickly, their playoff hopes will be dashed just as quickly.

[TNSkinsFan]

**** the donk's!! We are winning this game today! :broncosuc :broncosuc :broncosuc :broncosuc

[mbws]

**** the donk's!! We are winning this game today! :broncosuc :broncosuc :broncosuc :broncosuc

What he said!

:helmet: :logo: :point2sky

[Warhead36]

Equivalent of the Rockies? Someone tell them the Rockies finished last in the worst division in Baseball.

[The Sir]

I want to win this game and I expect the defense to keep us in it til the end, but I don't expect us to win this game. 20-10 is a reasonable score. I'd expect to beat them if it were at FedEx, but at Mile High, they're the clear favorites and I don't mind the media selecting them to win. I do take offense to the media outlets picking the Broncos to win 32-3.

I'm just hoping we can split these two road games so we can be 4-1 heading into the game with the Niners.