wskin44 Posted September 27, 2005 Share Posted September 27, 2005 The Redskins net offensive and defensive performance from scrimmage is fourth best in the NFL. It's a good indicator of overall team strength and which teams dominate in field position and ball controll. Typically the top teams make the playoffs. Last season 8 of the top 9 teams made the playoffs. All 12 playoff teams last year finished in the top 17 of this indicator. So far the Skins are coming out ahead by an average of .62 of a yard per offensive and defensive play from scrimmage. Last year we finished 14th at .06 yards per play. The improvement has happened because the offense is gaining 5.07 yds per play, up from 4.3 yards last season. Net Off/Def yards per play rankings: (Note that Seatle is #2) Team Net Y/P Philadelphia 1.32 Seattle 0.93 Tampa Bay 0.87 Washington 0.62 Cincinnati 0.61 New England 0.61 Jacksonville 0.58 Pittsburgh 0.38 St. Louis 0.36 Miami 0.24 Denver 0.20 Dallas 0.18 Atlanta 0.02 Carolina 0.01 Green Bay -0.03 New Orleans -0.05 Indianapolis -0.05 Tennessee -0.11 Chicago -0.12 Kansas City -0.12 Arizona -0.15 Baltimore -0.18 San Diego -0.18 Detroit -0.26 New York (A) -0.27 Oakland -0.39 Minnesota -0.46 Buffalo -0.48 Cleveland -0.50 New York (N) -0.71 Houston -1.60 San Francisco -1.79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zoony Posted September 27, 2005 Share Posted September 27, 2005 That is interesting. If it could somehow be weighed against strength of schedule, I think they'd have something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wskin44 Posted September 27, 2005 Author Share Posted September 27, 2005 Eight of our remaining games are against teams in the top half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgcountry Posted September 27, 2005 Share Posted September 27, 2005 exactly. note the skins are the only undefeated team NOT picked to make the playoffs. a strong def. a good running game and a good spec. teams. have carried the wait. mediocre QB's and mediocre passing isn't going to get the job done though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Califan007 The Constipated Posted September 27, 2005 Share Posted September 27, 2005 Philadelphia 1.32 (2-1) Seattle 0.93 (2-1) Tampa Bay 0.87 (3-0) Washington 0.62 (2-0) Cincinnati 0.61 (3-0) New England 0.61 (2-1) Jacksonville 0.58 (2-1) Pittsburgh 0.38 (2-1) St. Louis 0.36 (2-1) Miami 0.24 (2-1) Denver 0.20 (2-1) Dallas 0.18 (2-1) Atlanta 0.02 (2-1) Carolina 0.01 (1-2) Record of teams above 0.0 net yards/play: 29-12 ************************** Green Bay -0.03 (0-3) New Orleans -0.05 (1-2) Indianapolis -0.05 (3-0) Tennessee -0.11 (1-2) Chicago -0.12 (1-2) Kansas City -0.12 (2-1) Arizona -0.15 (0-3) Baltimore -0.18 (0-2) San Diego -0.18 (1-2) Detroit -0.26 (1-1) New York (A) -0.27 (1-2) Oakland -0.39 (0-3) Minnesota -0.46 (1-2) Buffalo -0.48 (1-2) Cleveland -0.50 (1-2) New York (N) -0.71 (2-1) Houston -1.60 (0-2) San Francisco -1.79 (1-2) Record of teams below 0.0 net yards per play: 17-34 Seems pretty clear that if the team is able to achieve a high net yard/play, they'll win more than they'll lose. The stat won't be telling, though, until several more weeks pass. At this point, one great game or one horrid game can skew the numbers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KevinMac Posted September 27, 2005 Share Posted September 27, 2005 This is a very good stat. Add in the key factors of tempo and penalty yardage and it becomes a GREAT stat, one I look at all the time. You can't overlook plays per game and yardage swing due to penalties in this equation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wskin44 Posted September 27, 2005 Author Share Posted September 27, 2005 It's hard to accurately factor in penalties because most penalties don't even count as a play and often the penalty yardage doesn't reflect the true damage done. It is true though that turnovers and penalties are not factored in here. The net special team yardage isn't either. Generally though the stat is a good measure. The exceptions: Last year the Bucs were tied for 11th at .22 net yards but only won 5 games. The Chargers were right behind them with .09 y/p but won 12 games. Probably the reason: the Bucs were minus 9 on turnovers while the Chargers were plus 15. Buffalo was the 10th ranked team last year (2nd in D) and won 9 games and had a plus 10 turnover ratio and still didn't make the playoffs. Meanwhile St. Louis only had 8 wins in the NFC but made the playoffs. Sometimes its just the luck of which Conference you play in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phat Hog Posted September 27, 2005 Share Posted September 27, 2005 Eight of our remaining games are against teams in the top half. :doh: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KevinMac Posted September 27, 2005 Share Posted September 27, 2005 It's hard to accurately factor in penalties because most penalties don't even count as a play and often the penalty yardage doesn't reflect the true damage done. Penalties are crucial and must be factored in somehow. It adds yardage without a play, but it's consistent with all 32 teams, so it is valid. For instance, if the Redskins give up a 5 yard play, their defensive ypp is 5.0. If Dallas gives up a 5 yard play with a 15 yard horse collar tackle penalty added on, they have allowed the opposing team to advance 20 yards on one snap. If the next time at scrimmage they jump offside, they have allowed the team to move 25 yards on one snap, which is a truer indication of what has happened. In this case, Dallas would have given up 25 yards per play, not the 5 yards per play that would be indicated if penalties are left out of the equation. Since the same would apply to all teams, the stat is still appropriate. Last year the Bucs were tied for 11th at .22 net yards but only won 5 games. The Chargers were right behind them with .09 y/p but won 12 games. Probably the reason: the Bucs were minus 9 on turnovers while the Chargers were plus 15. This is why a tempo factor really needs to be factored in. San Diego was involved in 77 more plays from scrimmage than Tampa. This changes the true value of the numbers. Obviously turnovers were THE factor as you correctly point out. Switch the TO numbers around and you Tampa makes the playoffs while San Diego plays golf. Still your stat can show other answers. Another thing that must be considered is that teams don't run the same number of offensive and defensive plays. This is important because offense is positive yardage, and defense yields negative yardage. Last year, Tampa's defense was on the field for more plays than their offense. San Diego's offense, on the other hand, had more plays than it's defense. In this case, San Diego had 30 more defensive plays than Tampa did. BUT, San Diego also had 47 more OFFENSIVE plays. Together, this means SD had a net 17 more positive yardage plays then Tampa. Since San Diego averaged 5.6 yds per extra positive yardage play and had more offensive (positive yardage) plays than defensive while Tampa had more defensive (negative yardage) plays than offensive, San Diego has an advantage when comparing the two teams. If anything, this shows just how important turnovers are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leonard Washington Posted September 27, 2005 Share Posted September 27, 2005 we only played 2 games people....TWO GAMES!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frankbones Posted September 27, 2005 Share Posted September 27, 2005 Eight of our remaining games are against teams in the top half. :doh: 6 of our remaining games are against teams in the lower half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wskin44 Posted September 27, 2005 Author Share Posted September 27, 2005 Good points Kevin. I'm calculating net yards per play as: Total O yards minus total D yards divided by total O+D plays. By doing this I am taking into account that some teams are running more O plays than D plays. One other thing about penalties is that some teams are awarded more penalties than they are penalized, so the only true measure is net penalty yards. I'm using NFL.com to download the raw stats but it isn't showing me the penalty yds awarded to each team, just the penalty yds taken away. I'm going to try to post these stats each week, so let me know what you think. By the way, last season the Redskins lost .01 of a yard NET to penalties every time the ball was snapped from scrimmage (non punting plays). We were dead last in the NFL. That number is slightly misleading though because it includes special team penalites without counting special team plays. Lord knows we had lots of ST penalties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ironmic Posted September 27, 2005 Share Posted September 27, 2005 holla at me in week 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wskin44 Posted September 27, 2005 Author Share Posted September 27, 2005 holla at me in week 10 Califans post shows that these numbers mean something right now. Also last seasons numbers are a clue to what would happen this season. Offseason media darlings like Arizona, Detroit, Chicago & Baltimore all did poorly on this measure last year and it wasn't likely that they were going to improve as much as was being predicted. Meanwhile Tampa Bay and Washington weren't predicted to do much this year but according to the numbers they had much less to fix to become good teams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brandies Posted September 28, 2005 Share Posted September 28, 2005 Cool, nice post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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