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How the Redskins Will Make the Playoffs

http://redskins.scout.com/2/435982.html


By RichTandler Editor-in-Chief

Date: Sep 9, 2005

Tandler's Redskins Blog Ver. 09.09.05--The 2005 Washington Redskins will make the playoffs and any outcome less than that will be a disappointment.

You can reach me by email at rtandler@comcast.net

The team has good, talented football players, a lot of them. One quick way to assess the level of a team’s talent is to see how many of its players would start for most other NFL teams. With the definition being that a player could start for at least half of the other teams in the league, the Redskins have quality players at all five positions on the offensive line, one at wide receiver with Santana Moss, one at tight end with Chris Cooley, and one at running back with Clinton Portis. On the other side of the ball they have defensive tackle Cornelius Griffin, linebackers LaVar Arrington and Marcus Washington, cornerback Shawn Springs and safety Sean Taylor. A few others such as safety Matt Bowen and defensive end Renaldo Wynn are on the borderline, but even discounting them that makes 13 players who are above average at their positions. That’s enough to win with.

There was some truth to what people were saying about Joe Gibbs last year, that he was trying to win in 2004 with plays that worked in 1990. Certainly it didn’t work like the typical Joe Gibbs offense, one that took best advantage of the talents of its players and always had a surprise or two in store for the opposing defense. It’s surprising to learn that some still think that the game has passed him by. He didn’t spend 15-20 hours a day at Redskins Park during the offseason trying to convince people that what he did last year works, he spent it revamping the Washington offense. Gibbs has always said the he would change about 40% of his offense from year to year. From ’04 to ’05 the numbers will probably be flip-flopped, with the coaches putting 60% or more of last year’s schemes in the trashcan. The shotgun, which we have seen used effectively during the preseason and zone blocking for Portis to allow him to bust some long gainers, plays that were missing from his 1,300-yard season in 2004.

Even with all of the problems with the offense last year, the Redskins still won three of their last five games. One of the losses was to the Eagles and the Redskins’ strong bid for an upset in that game was derailed by a late interception of a Patrick Ramsey pass in the end zone. The other defeat came in the dying minutes at Texas Stadium when a late Dallas touchdown pass pulled out the win for the Cowboys.

That’s the framework. So how do the Redskins take these quality players running an effective offensive scheme and a Gregg Williams defensive scheme and win the nine or 10 games that will be needed to make the playoffs?


  • Win three in the division: The Redskins have favorable matchups in their four meetings with the Giants and Cowboys in regards to the quarterbacks they will be facing. Williams’ aggressive, blitzing packages are designed to terrorize young quarterbacks such as New York’s Eli Manning and immobile quarterbacks like Dallas’ Drew Bledsoe. Even if they can’t steal a win from the Eagles, something they almost did in Week 14 last year, they should be able to muster a 3-3 division record.
  • Beat the teams they should beat: The home games against the Bears and 49ers are games that the Redskins should be favored in by a touchdown or more. Seattle comes to FedEx Field and they’re a terrible road team. The Oakland Raiders also visit FedEx and even with the addition of Randy Moss they’re still a team that will post a double-digit loss total. Tampa Bay is just a few years removed from a Super Bowl win but they seem to be a lost franchise now. The Redskins travel to Arizona and the Cardinals are supposed to be an up and coming team but I’ll believe it when I see it. Washington will win five of those six games.
  • Pull an upset or two: The three division wins and the five against the lesser teams mean that the Redskins need to find another win, maybe two, to get a ticket to the playoffs. Among the more winnable road games is the one in Denver. The Broncos just aren’t very good this year and, like Manning and Bledsoe, the mistake-prone Jake Plummer is the kind of quarterback that plays right into Williams’ hand. The Chargers, who play at FedEx Field in late November and if the Redskins are playing well then that will be a very tough game for the Chargers to win. A win in a December trip to St. Louis may be a tall order, but the Rams are nothing if not erratic and a win there is not out of the realm of possibility.

Of course, the usual caveats are in place here. The Redskins, like virtually every other NFL team not named the Patriots, won’t be successful if they are hit with an extraordinary number of injuries or get more than their share of unfortunate breaks. Given an equality of luck, however, the Redskins will be extending their season into the playoffs in 2005.

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So...let's say the Skins sweep the Giants...split with the Cowboys...beat the Bears, 49ers, Tampa and Arizona...that's seven wins right there. Find a way to beat Denver and Seattle, which I think the Skins are capable of doing...and you're looking at a 9-7 record. If the Skins can pull off just one upset during the season, it's double-digit wins for the first time in six years...and definitely a playoff birth.

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I just want them to get in the playoffs I dont care how, but they need to do it. Its been awhile since we actually enjoyed watching them there in the playoffs. An ideal record would be 10 and 6 with this season hopefully kicking the crap out of Dallas twice would make me really happy!

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The Redskins, like virtually every other NFL team not named the Patriots, won’t be successful if they are hit with an extraordinary number of injuries or get more than their share of unfortunate breaks. Given an equality of luck, however, the Redskins will be extending their season into the playoffs in 2005.

I like and agree with the positive outlook.

As far as the Patriots go, they have obviously been very successful, but I just don't recall that they had to overcome an extraordinary number of injuries or more than their share of unfortunate breaks. They deserve plenty of credit for what they've accomplished recently, but there's no need to imply that they've overcome more obstacles than the rest of the NFL to get there.

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It's a good article basically describing what the Redskins, need, should and can do in order to make the playoffs.

This in my op. is a easier schedule than last year, being that I am not at all sold on the "dominating" AFC and NFC West squads (I think both challenge for the weakest divisions in the NFL, compared to last years North divisions which are middle of the pack to more difficult divisons).

We should be able to play the "easier" (there really is no easy win in the NFL anymore) teams well and fight the more difficult teams better......

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The schedule is definitely not a killer.

We play the NFC West where a solid football team should take 3 of 4.

If we merely split the division games we're looking at 6 wins.

The real difficult 4-some are the road games against Denver, Kansas City, and Philly and home against Philly. The Skins could conceivably get a break for that last game should Philly have the division wrapped up b/c it's in Week 17. But let's say we only pull off 1 win in those 4.

Beat Chicago and Tampa and split the Raiders/Chargers and now you are looking at the magic 9 wins that would probably put us in the playoffs. I think it's doable.

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It’s surprising to learn that some still think that the game has passed him by. He didn’t spend 15-20 hours a day at Redskins Park during the offseason trying to convince people that what he did last year works, he spent it revamping the Washington offense

THANK YOU!!!!!!

Sheesh! So many people in the media think that Gibbs is living in a cave or something.....

I really like this article. It takes into account the improvements the team has made this offseason, unlike most news outlets. It still keeps a positive spin on things, downplaying the supposed 'erratic' play of Ramsey, the supposed 'QB controversy', and the supposed effects of the loss of Smoot, Pierce, Gardner, and Coles.....

We all need to stay realistic, it *is* the NFL afterall. "Any Given Sunday..."

But!

I really think the national media is being way too harsh.

1. We finished last year strong.... VERY STRONG! We played well against the Eagles and Steelers. We lost, but we were in each game 'till the end.

2. The 'Skins have revamped their team to suit the skills of their players, as well as suit the style of their coach (getting rid of malcontents)

3. We only lost 2 starters on both sides of the ball (4 total). They've been replaced with skill players which may be as good, or better, than those who we've lost.

4. Many of our injured starters lost last year are back.

5. We've brought in more players to revamp our starting roster and to add depth WITHOUT breaking the bank for the 'sexy' signing. The closest we can be accused of doing this with this offseason would be Santana Moss.

6. We have very close to the same corps of players and the same corp of coaches.

7. We actually have a relatively easy schedule this year. Yes, I realize no NFL schedule is "easy", but looking at W/L records of this years opponents vs. last years opponents, we theoretically have an easier schedule this year.

8. When all is said and done, the only REAL question mark on the team is the QB position. Ramsey HAS proven in the past that he CAN PLAY! The only thing he has yet to prove is consistency. Not to make any excuses for him, but the team has never consistently supported him. Now that the coach and the team is finally giving him their full support, the onus is on him to prove he is worth their trust.

I believe, REALISTICALLY, that the 'Skins can win 10+ games this season. It still boils down to the team having to execute on the field, but we have the players and the coaching staff to do it.

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So...let's say the Skins sweep the Giants...split with the Cowboys...beat the Bears, 49ers, Tampa and Arizona...that's seven wins right there. Find a way to beat Denver and Seattle, which I think the Skins are capable of doing...and you're looking at a 9-7 record. If the Skins can pull off just one upset during the season, it's double-digit wins for the first time in six years...and definitely a playoff birth.

Gotta beat the Bears in this scenario....or else we need 2 big upsets (which still can be done)

Which shows just how critical this first game is..

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"The team has good, talented football players, a lot of them. One quick way to assess the level of a team’s talent is to see how many of its players would start for most other NFL teams. With the definition being that a player could start for at least half of the other teams in the league, the Redskins have quality players at all five positions on the offensive line, one at wide receiver with Santana Moss, one at tight end with Chris Cooley, and one at running back with Clinton Portis. On the other side of the ball they have defensive tackle Cornelius Griffin, linebackers LaVar Arrington and Marcus Washington, cornerback Shawn Springs and safety Sean Taylor. A few others such as safety Matt Bowen and defensive end Renaldo Wynn are on the borderline, but even discounting them that makes 13 players who are above average at their positions. That’s enough to win with."

Cooley was around #20 in TE receiving yds with Pollard and Heap below him so he is not among the 16 top TE's yet. Dockery off of what he has shown so far would not start for 16 other teams and the same goes for one year starter Rabach. Moss is not among the top 16 WR's but he is among the top 32 so your #1 is likely an above-average #2. I consider all these guys as ascending players but off of what they've done so far you probably have 12 of 22 starters who couldn't start for half the other teams with the most important position being among them. I really don't think this means much but I do think the writer was incorrect.

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