Califan007 The Constipated Posted September 9, 2005 Share Posted September 9, 2005 I don't remember seeing this anywhere...and I've been hanging around ES pretty much night and day..lol..As always, if it's just a slip on my part, a thousand apologies... http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/story?columnist=joyner_kc&id=2155934 One of my goals in researching and writing Scientific Football 2005 was to find better ways to track the performance of individual defensive players in the passing game. We currently have ways of tracking defensive unit performance, but these stats are just the flip side of the offensive unit statistics. What I wanted was some of the same kinds of individual statistics that we have for offensive players. The first statistic I started tracking was completion percentage. There are measurements of completion percentages for quarterbacks, and you can even find completion percentages for receivers (which is also something I track), but there has never been an attempt to determine the completion percentage against specific defensive players. There are many reasons given why this isn't tracked. The most prevalent is that it is difficult to determine who was responsible for the coverage on a certain play. This argument implies that coverage responsibility can't be measured, but this clearly isn't the case. On short passes, it is perfectly clear who is responsible for coverage. On medium and deep passes, it is almost always clear who is responsible, even on the limited views provided by network broadcast footage. (Once wide field views are made available through the NFL Sunday Ticket package, something that is supposed to occur in the next couple of years, this should become a nonissue). You may be surprised by some of the findings. Let me share with you the top 20 and bottom 20 for completion percentage for cornerbacks from the 2004 season. Just as in golf, the lower the completion percentage, the better. Top 20 1. Dre' Bly -- 36.5 percent 2. Mike McKenzie -- 40.8 percent 3. Eric Warfield -- 44.0 percent 4. Shawn Springs -- 44.6 percent 5. Deltha O'Neal -- 44.8 percent 6. Will Peterson -- 44.9 percent 7. Asante Samuel -- 46.2 percent 8. Terence Newman -- 46.6 percent 9. Al Harris -- 47.4 percent 10. Nate Clements -- 47.7 percent 11. Sheldon Brown -- 47.9 percent 12. Ahmad Carroll -- 48.0 percent 13. Ronde Barber -- 48.1 percent 14. David Macklin -- 48.3 percent 15. Sam Madison -- 50.7 percent 16. Earthwind Moreland -- 50.9 percent 17. Deshea Townsend -- 51.0 percent 18. Duane Starks -- 51.4 percent 19. Donnie Abraham -- 52.0 percent 20. Dexter McCleon -- 52.2 percent Bottom 20 80. Andre Woolfolk -- 71.7 percent 79. Von Hutchins -- 71.7 percent 78. Fred Thomas -- 69.7 percent 77. Aaron Glenn -- 69.6 percent 76. Antoine Winfield -- 68.8 percent 75. Daylon McCutcheon -- 68.1 percent 74. DeAngelo Hall -- 65.3 percent 73. Jason David -- 64.9 percent 72. Allen Rossum -- 64.7 percent 71. Shawntae Spencer -- 64.6 percent 70. Phillip Buchanon -- 64.5 percent 69. Anthony Henry -- 64.2 percent 68. Dunta Robinson -- 64.2 percent 67. Champ Bailey -- 63.3 percent 66. Lance Frazier -- 62.3 percent 65. Nick Harper -- 62.3 percent 64. Kevin Mathis -- 61.8 percent 63. Lito Sheppard -- 61.0 percent 62. Marcus Trufant -- 61.0 percent 61. Dewayne Washington -- 60.9 percent Champ Bailey, whom I have previously referred to as the most overrated player in football, ranked 67th in overall completion percentage. Lito Sheppard ranked 63rd in this category and Sheldon Brown ranked 11th, yet Sheppard ended up going to the Pro Bowl. Keep in mind that these completion percentages can be affected by the same kind of factors that can affect a quarterback's completion percentages -- dropped passes, overthrows, and penalties called against the cornerback. For instance, Shawn Springs ranks fourth in completion percentage, but there was an outlying reason for this. I measured the number of overthrows and dropped passes that occurred against every cornerback under a metric I call missed passes. I not only measured the amount of times these plays happened, I also measured the number of yards that would have been gained had these passes been caught. I did this by tracking how many yards the receiver would have gained if he caught the ball at the point the ball was missed. I didn't take into account any potential yards after the catch, as that was simply too subjective a measurement. For instance, if a receiver was 30 yards past the line of scrimmage when he dropped a pass, but could have run for another 20 yards for a TD, I only debited the cornerback for the 30 yards. Springs was near the bottom of the league in missed passes among cornerbacks. Here is the bottom 10: 80. Sheldon Brown -- 41 79. Jerametrius Butler -- 31 78. Terrence McGee -- 31 77. Shawn Springs -- 27 76. Lito Sheppard -- 25 75. David Macklin -- 25 74. Deshea Townsend -- 24 73. Dre' Bly -- 21 72. Eric Warfield -- 20 71. Gary Baxter -- 20 80. Shawn Springs -- 460 79. Jerametrius Butler -- 441 78. Deshea Townsend -- 366 77. Sheldon Brown -- 363 76. Terrence McGee -- 359 75. Al Harris -- 317 74. Quentin Jammer -- 314 73. Kelly Herndon -- 303 72. Randall Gay -- 301 71. Terence Newman -- 295 Now, this isn't to say that Shawn Springs should have given up 27 more catches and 460 more yards. Every cornerback in the league benefits some from missed passes, just as quarterbacks will always have receivers drop passes and hurt their stats. Yes, Springs did very well in the completion percentage metric, but we can see that a lot of that came directly from the missed passes. You would expect this type of performance from a cornerback in a Gregg Williams system, as the pressure-style defense the Redskins play lends itself to a lot of overthrown passes from opposing quarterbacks. The only current metrics used to measure cornerbacks are interceptions, passes defensed and tackles. These new metrics are designed simply to give us a better overall view of a cornerback's performance. Can you imagine grading a wide receiver, tight end or quarterback with only limited statistical measurements? When we only have limited ways of measuring player performance, the argument about who is the best degenerates into a lot of subjective hearsay. We have the tools available to measure these types of things and we have to use them if we want to expand our understanding of individual defensive performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Streater101 Posted September 9, 2005 Share Posted September 9, 2005 Interesting stuff indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Posted September 9, 2005 Share Posted September 9, 2005 I wonder if we'll get more posts about how much nonsense this is, since this refers only to Springs and didn't APPEAR to give another REdskin some credit(though when you see the complete study, it was very negative too.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooper Posted September 9, 2005 Share Posted September 9, 2005 And I thought I had a lot of time on my hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba9497 Posted September 9, 2005 Share Posted September 9, 2005 purely subjective, how many of those misses were the result of great coverage by SS that the QB threw the ball away? or in a different direction. This guy is assuming the play call, and results "intended" and not even the coaches can get that right all the time. Most of this guys stuff would be laughed out of court. Basically all he is doing is changing the barameters with unproven data to get the result he wants.... scientific spin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riggo-toni Posted September 9, 2005 Share Posted September 9, 2005 I love these analyses. ASF used to come up with this sort of stuff on his own. Some of it was derided as wacky, but it was always very detailed and thought provoking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Posted September 9, 2005 Share Posted September 9, 2005 purely subjective, how many of those misses were the result of great coverage by SS that the QB threw the ball away? or in a different direction. This guy is assuming the play call, and results "intended" and not even the coaches can get that right all the time.Most of this guys stuff would be laughed out of court. Basically all he is doing is changing the barameters with unproven data to get the result he wants.... scientific spin. Bubba, I don't think it's THAt subjective. Sure, "missed passes" may have been, but it's not like it takes a genius to eval whether a WR was open and just dropped a pass, etc. That also assumes that he's not looking for plays where the QB threw it away NEAR the receiver. It's not garbage, it's good analysis. It told us what we knew with Bailey, didn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Califan007 The Constipated Posted September 9, 2005 Author Share Posted September 9, 2005 And I thought I had a lot of time on my hands. When you're getting paid for it, it no longer qualifies as "too much time on your hands"...lol I wonder if this guy got paid by the hour??... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrockster21 Posted September 9, 2005 Share Posted September 9, 2005 I don't think it is a negative comment against Springs; I mean, hey, I'll take the 4th rated CB in completion percentage no matter HOW the balls are incomplete! I think his second rating is bogus...but the first one is good. You can argue that the "missed passes" were a direct result of respect for Springs; QBs overthrew their receivers a little more than usual to get it over his head or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gamebreaker Posted September 9, 2005 Share Posted September 9, 2005 Very subjective stuff. No way is Dre Bly and Mike Mckenzie among the best in the league. Every time I watch the both of them play I see them give up catch after catch. Deep, short, it doesn't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thiebear Posted September 10, 2005 Share Posted September 10, 2005 I like these stats to include Pass Interference.. and that dallas sucks... http://www.twominutewarning.com/cb2004.htm The following statistics show how teams have defensed the starting/top two wide receivers of the opposing team throughout the season. All plays where a pass was directed to one of the two "prime target" WR's is counted, with such things as a defensive pass interference call counting as a "completed" pass for the appropriate yardage to fully reflect what took place. 2004 Final Regular Season stats Defense Comp. Att. C% Yards Avg. TD INT Rating Cincinnati 124 236 52.5 1640 6.9 8 16 57.9 Pittsburgh 122 238 51.3 1512 6.4 6 12 58.7 Washington 125 249 50.2 1538 6.2 5 8 63.0 New England 159 284 56.0 2091 7.4 11 15 70.3 Carolina 140 240 58.3 1927 8.0 9 14 72.3 Baltimore 141 255 55.3 1932 7.6 7 10 72.5 Arizona 143 269 53.2 1953 7.3 12 12 72.9 San Diego 154 271 56.8 2012 7.4 9 12 73.0 Tampa Bay 104 200 52.0 1431 7.2 13 10 76.1 Buffalo 124 229 54.1 1671 7.3 11 9 77.2 Jacksonville 141 233 60.5 1791 7.7 9 10 79.5 Philadelphia 155 262 59.2 1892 7.2 9 7 81.8 St.Louis 124 234 53.0 1661 7.1 8 3 81.9 New York Giants 139 228 61.0 1618 7.1 11 9 82.1 Cleveland 133 213 62.4 1742 8.2 9 9 84.7 New Orleans 139 250 55.6 1993 8.0 10 5 86.6 Green Bay 146 264 55.3 2058 7.8 14 7 87.3 Atlanta 154 248 62.1 2017 8.1 11 9 87.4 Chicago 134 241 55.6 1852 7.7 14 7 87.7 Indianapolis 146 240 60.8 2025 8.4 14 11 88.3 Miami 123 204 60.3 1678 8.2 10 7 88.6 New York Jets 135 233 57.9 1822 7.8 10 4 90.1 Tennessee 142 241 58.9 2136 8.9 16 11 91.2 Denver 126 214 58.9 1707 8.0 11 5 91.8 Detroit 129 233 55.4 1837 7.9 20 10 91.8 San Francisco 150 253 59.3 2040 8.1 14 7 92.0 Oakland 158 259 61.0 2141 8.3 11 5 93.5 Seattle 159 256 62.1 2024 7.9 16 8 94.6 Minnesota 156 250 62.4 2092 8.4 14 6 97.6 Houston 161 252 63.9 2024 8.0 18 9 97.7 Dallas 157 257 61.1 2024 7.9 17 6 98.1 Kansas City 135 239 56.5 2148 9.0 21 7 103.7 In ref to Springs and Bailey it looks about the same as the 1st on up above. They pick the Redskins to win week one also.. they were 65% accurate in Preseason so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G-Prime Posted September 10, 2005 Share Posted September 10, 2005 You gotta consider how many times the ball was thrown to some of these folks as well. So I can imagine it's a bit skewed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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