Team That Scores First Usually Wins (L.A. Times), Along with Top 10 Teams...

[Califan007 The Constipated]

*This article is from the Sunday edition of the Los Angeles Times, so there's no link for it yet. I'll post it--and the entire article--tomorrow when they put it up on their website...for now I'll post a general overview of the article.

Perhaps this should be filed under "Duh!"...lol...

Scheming to Get Rich Quick

Teams that score first usually win in the NFL, and the best way to score first is the pass. But some already knew that.

By Bob Oates

The emergence of pass offense as the decisive way to win championships and Super Bowls has been called the most radical NFL change of the most recent two decades of Amercan football.

The present passing era has arrived so gradually and incrementally that many football fans, players and even coaches haven't noticed that the day of the running back as dominant force has passed.

As the 32 pro clubs head out this month toward Super Bowl XL, the three best teams--New England, Indianapolis and Philadelphia--are all passing teams of distinction.

At the request of The Times, the Elias Sports Bureau analyzed the last five years of data. The new statistics below show the size of lead and the percentage of games won:

3-0..........59%

7-0..........71%

10-0.........82%

14-0.........87%

To some coaches pondering game-day strategy, these have proved to be startling findings. If a team simply scores the opening touchdown, the averages indicate it will win seven out of 10 times (which translates conservatively to an 11-5 record for the season).

Score the first two touchdowns and it's nearly nine out of 10 (almost exactly 14-2).

It's true, of course, that the better team is likely to score first and to eventuallhy win. But this is a league overwhelmingly devoted to the promotion of parity. In NFL games these days, personnel is ordinarily quite even. Indeed, on most days, there is no "bettet" team. The advantage thus goes to whichever team can strike first for an early lead.

Race to Nowhere

It need hardly be said that running teams don't think of the first quarter as a race for the lead. To a running team, the goal at the start of every game, as they've said for years, is to "establish the run". This means running on nearly every first down as well as most second and third downs. Their intent, often stated, is not to score quickly, but rather to soften up an opponent for scores that will come later.

(also from the L.A. Times)

The Top 10

These 10 teams won't finish in this order, but as of the first days of the NFL's 86th season they figure this way:

1. New England Patriots

Best coach, best quarterback, best approach to modern pass-intensive football.

2. Indianapolis Colts:

Best passer, best receivers, adequate defense. Ironically, although the Colts pass so often that they're pegged as a passing team, they lose by not passing enough.

3. Philadelphia Eagles:

Have taken over first place in the NFC during an AFC era as personified by the Patriots, Colts and others.

4. Cincinnati Bengals:

In quarterback Carson Palmer's third pro year, is he ready to move this far up? With an understanding coach, Marvin Lewis, he could be. The Bengals already have the look of a good team with a tough running back, Rudi Johnson, and feared receivers, Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmanzadeh, among others. And Lewis, like Beliichick, is a defensive expert. He is the first lifelong defensive man since Belichick to fully embrace a pass offense, which gives Cincinnati an edge in a division with coaches who are still determined to run the ball. The Lewis passer, Palmer, needs more experience, to be sure, but with good coaching and able associates around him, he could, with his passing touch, mobility and poise, rise in an hurry.

5. Carolina Panters

Perhaps the best of the NFL's old-fashioned run-first team, Carolina has unilaterally disarmed, obliging a good passer, Jake Delhomme, to play catch-up instead of aggressive let's-score football. In a division where, however, all the coaches want to to run, Delhomme has an advantage. He showed this often last year when injuries claimed his two big-time runners and many of his linemen. The Panters are blessed with a solid coach, John Fox, whose one blind spot is offensive strategy. After all these years of combat good passing teams, Fox still wants to play 1970's football, which will keep Carolina from sinning Super Bowls but not division titles in a division such as theirs.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers

To expect Bill Cower to change his ways is expecting too much of the NFL's senior coach. He still thinks he can run his way to the Super Bowl. The players who put Cower in the playoffs a year ago, rookie quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, did it by completing third-down passes after Cower's beloved running game had failed. IN retrospect, that was not only a tribute to Big Ben but doubtless impossible to do again. Most pro clubs are pass-defense savvy, most noticeably on thethird down. After a year of looking at Pittsburgh's 2004 tapes, they'll beat him in 2005 unless Cower shifts to a modern offense. considering the power of the Steeler defense and the adequacy of their running attack, Roethlisberger could be a Super Bowl winner as an NFL sophomore if Cowher played New Englad football.

7. Kansas City Chiefs

The way Coach **** Vermeil has upgraded defense--with a bunch of new starters the same year--isn't the priority method. A gradual improvement would have been more impressive. But if at last the Chiefs have some defense, they can be a contender with thier offense, which starts with a dependable quarterback, Trent Green, and includes potential Hall of Famers at tight end with Tony Gonzalez and at running back with Priest Holmes plus a veteran line.

8. Denver Broncos

Since their Super Bowl era, something big has gone wrong for the Broncos every year. They should be accomplishing more than they have lately with a coach such as Mike Shanahan and quaterback Jake Plummer. Though Plummer doesn't add much as a pocket passer, he has other talents that so far haven't been adequately explored. Maybe this year.

9. St. Louis Rams

The league offers no btter example than the Rams of a team that could march into and possibly through the playoffs if the play-caller, Coach Mike Martz, understood New England's play-calling system. The Rams defer to no opponent in offensive talent (quarterback Marc Bulger, receivers Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt, left tackle Orlando Pace) and play design. Martz loses by calling the right plays at the wrong time.

10. Buffalo Bills

This team is conceivably on the rise with its new coach and players. Much depends on two things: whether J.P. Losman is an NFL quarterback and whether New York Jets can get a full season out of their quarterback, Chad Pennington. The Jets are top 10 with an injury-free Pennington.

As for the NFC East...

"Philadelphia could be the runaway winner, with a three-way tie for second among the New York Giants, Washington and Dallas, no one of which impresses."