No more predictions needed - formula solved

[Beaudry]

Every year it is the same thing with our media friends and their preseason predictions. You can almost guarantee nobody will go out on a limb or make a bold choice. Typical media crap you read every time.

:gaintsuck

Giants: Manning will be good, but needs another year. Pierce rocks.

:dallasuck

Cowboys: New defense will dominate. Bledsoe is old and slow. Jones is the next Emmitt Smith but with more cowbell.

:eaglesuck

Eagles: Will win SB if TO and McNabb can click.

Redskins: Snyder sucks and the team will always suck with him.

For some reason, the mediots think that they can make every assumption based on last season's record with adjustments for new and gone players. Look at the 13-3 bears a few years back. It was obvious that they were a one year wonder. A team that had all the breaks go their way. Still, everybody picked them to go 10-6 to 13-3.

So similiar that we can break it down with this formula:

Z = Last season's record

G = Free agents gained

L = Free agents lost

R = rookies

M = momentum

A = Age

B = Bias

P = predicted record

(Z + R + G - L + M + A) x B = P

Here is how it works out for the division:

Redskins:

(6 + 1 + 1 - 3 + 0 +2) x 0.8 = 5.6

Predicted Record: 5-11 to 6-10

Cowboys:

(6 + 3 + 0 + 0 -1 -1) x 1.2 = 10.8

Predicted Record: 10-6 to 11-5

Eagles:

(Z + R + G - L + M + A) x B = P

(13 + 0 + 0 - 1 -1 + 0) x 1.3 = 14.3

Predicted Record: 14-2

Giants:

(Z + R + G - L + M + A) x B = P

(6 + 0 + 1 - 0 + 0 + -1) x 1.2 = 7.2

Predicted Record: 7-9

Total craptastic results:

Eagles: 14-2

Cowboys: 11-5

Giants: 7-9

Redskins: 6-10

These look familiar?

[iheartskins]

Holy Econometrics Batman.

[illone]

:laugh:

No worries, Beaudry. Season is right around the corner.

Funny stuff, man.

[andavy]

Okay.....I can't believe that I'm going to enter this discussion, but -

where are you getting your values for M, A & B? The Boys & Eagles have negative momentum?

I know I shouldn't ask (if this is just a joke), but I was an engineering major.

[chomerics]

Stop listening to the media, and just enjoy the games. Take it from a Pats fan, it is soooooooo much sweeter when you get to watch the media eat their own words. They will this year as well.

Hell, half of the pundits are picking the Colts again this year in the AFC, do they forget that Manning turns into Heath Shuler when he plays the Pats?

They are all full of crap, and there isn't one who is decient, although Jaws is probably the closest thing they have to being half good.

[Ghost of]

Stop listening to the media, and just enjoy the games. Take it from a Pats fan, it is soooooooo much sweeter when you get to watch the media eat their own words. They will this year as well.

Hell, half of the pundits are picking the Colts again this year in the AFC, do they forget that Manning turns into Heath Shuler when he plays the Pats?

They are all full of crap, and there isn't one who is decient, although Jaws is probably the closest thing they have to being half good.

So, I know you abandoned the Skins after Snyder bought them (I still call BS on that) but are you reclaiming the Pats or what? I thought you said you had come back to the Skins.

[Big Weirdo]

Every year it is the same thing with our media friends and their preseason predictions. You can almost guarantee nobody will go out on a limb or make a bold choice. Typical media crap you read every time.

:gaintsuck

Giants: Manning will be good, but needs another year. Pierce rocks.

:dallasuck

Cowboys: New defense will dominate. Bledsoe is old and slow. Jones is the next Emmitt Smith but with more cowbell.

:eaglesuck

Eagles: Will win SB if TO and McNabb can click.

Redskins: Snyder sucks and the team will always suck with him.

For some reason, the mediots think that they can make every assumption based on last season's record with adjustments for new and gone players. Look at the 13-3 bears a few years back. It was obvious that they were a one year wonder. A team that had all the breaks go their way. Still, everybody picked them to go 10-6 to 13-3.

So similiar that we can break it down with this formula:

Z = Last season's record

G = Free agents gained

L = Free agents lost

R = rookies

M = momentum

A = Age

B = Bias

P = predicted record

(Z + R + G - L + M + A) x B = P

Here is how it works out for the division:

Redskins:

(6 + 1 + 1 - 3 + 0 +2) x 0.8 = 5.6

Predicted Record: 5-11 to 6-10

Cowboys:

(6 + 3 + 0 + 0 -1 -1) x 1.2 = 10.8

Predicted Record: 10-6 to 11-5

Eagles:

(Z + R + G - L + M + A) x B = P

(13 + 0 + 0 - 1 -1 + 0) x 1.3 = 14.3

Predicted Record: 14-2

Giants:

(Z + R + G - L + M + A) x B = P

(6 + 0 + 1 - 0 + 0 + -1) x 1.2 = 7.2

Predicted Record: 7-9

Total craptastic results:

Eagles: 14-2

Cowboys: 11-5

Giants: 7-9

Redskins: 6-10

These look familiar?

Got much time on your hands?

[illone]

Oh jeez, nothing worse than someone who punts their own team.

Sad.

[chomerics]

So, I know you abandoned the Skins after Snyder bought them (I still call BS on that) but are you reclaiming the Pats or what? I thought you said you had come back to the Skins.

You call BS on anything I say because . . . . YOU CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH (In my Col. Jessup voice)

Like I have said many times, I have almost always rooted for two teams, the Pats and Skins. My family is from Boston, so I have always had a connection with Boston teams, but I also lived in DC metro as a kid. I lived in Alexandria, Burke & LaPlata Md. during the 80's and I fell in live with the Skins as I started learning and playing football.

Once Snyder bought the team, and started his fanatical meddeling into football affairs, I got pissed and stopped rooting for them. I always thought, that Danny-boy thought, the superbowl was won in April, not Janurary. I always thought his approach was the wrong approach to build a franchise in the FA period. He would load up, fail, take cap hits and then do it all over again.

It wasn't the mistakes that I was pissed at, hell I make mistakes all the time, and I will always forgive people for making them. . . but I do have a problem when the same mistake is made over, and over, and over again and again and again. I saw Danny-boy and Vinnie C as never learning from their past mistakes, as they continued to give bloated contracts to overhyped veterans. I don't need to name all of them, because we all know who they are, but this is what sent me over the edge and caused me to stop rooting for the Skins. It also is where my contempt for Snyder was born.

Now, since Gibbs came back, I have again started rooting for them again. I have always considered Gibbs my favorite coach, and one of the best all time (although Belichick has snuck past him this past year). I decided to keep my disdain for Dannyboy at a distance and embrace Mr. Gibbs.

If you notice, they didn't tear up the FA market this year, and instead built through the draft, I think Danny is finally starting to get it. I have all the respect and trust in the world for Gibbs, as he was always my favorite coach. It gave me goosebumps last year watching the skins in their old uniforms using the yellow-30 call, it was absolutely great.

Now, just because I root for the Skins again does not mean I can't also root for the Patriots. I have watched them through the thick and thin, and I have had one hell of a ride over the past four years. I've been on the Pats season ticket list for 10 years, and I am getting close to having tickets. I am on the Skins waiting list as well, and if I lived down there, I would have purchased some of the club seats I've been offered, but I don't get to DC enough to justify the expense.

I know teams like the Pats this come along only once in a life, and I am just enjoying every minuite of it. That still doesn't take away anything from me rooting for the skins.

[illone]

No true Skins fan would ever punt the team just because they didn't like the owner.

Again, sad.

[chomerics]

No true Skins fan would ever punt the team just because they didn't like the owner.

Again, sad.

Say what you want, I had other options and I chose not to root for them out of frustration. I followed them from a distance, but I stopped rooting for then because I thought Snyder was ruining the franchise. It was pissing me off, as I saw players like Trent Green leave, and loosers like Deion sign. The Spurier signing really threw me over the edge and caused me to stop rooting for them.

But hey, I had another option, and at least give me credit for realizing my mistake and changing my mind.

[Beaudry]

Okay.....I can't believe that I'm going to enter this discussion, but -

where are you getting your values for M, A & B? The Boys & Eagles have negative momentum?

I know I shouldn't ask (if this is just a joke), but I was an engineering major.

I mostly pulled all the numbers from my backside.

Age: The Cowboys are counting on rookies to make impacts. They also have some really over-the-hill starters, Allen, Bledsoe, Keyshawn, etc.

Momemtum: Dallas lost like 4 of their 5 last regular season games. The Eagles lost the Super Bowl.

Bias: Dallas is "america's team" and always gets a little more love for that. The Giants are a New York team and get the same little bias bump for that. Philly is the media darling, so their bump is even more. The Skins get a <1 number because so many people don't like Snyder and use that to predict the Skins success.

[E-Dog Night]

No true Skins fan would ever punt the team just because they didn't like the owner.

That's just 100% true.

[sumodat]

I understood everything he said, because I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

[mpfskin]

I have a buddy who is a Pats fan and all he does is blast Snyder. I am so sick of all the Pats fans claiming they have the best run organization and the best owner, blah, blah, blah. WHAT THEY FORGET TO REALIZE IS THAT KRAFT WAS NO BETTER THAN SNYDER WHEN HE BOUGHT THE PATS--the "TRUE" Pats fans hated him for his meddling. Once Kraft learned to step back and let his people handle things--they started to win. Much like Snyder is doing now.

Here is a great excerpt from an article to inform these so-called "TRUE" Pats fans of the truth:

"Not long ago, many other New England folk had bad feelings for Kraft, and not just HRH King Thomas Finneran. Five years ago, Bill Parcells was managing to pry himself from the Patriots, and Kraft was at the root of the reason why. Kraft turned into a meddling owner, getting involved in team business that he knew nothing about nor had any business getting into. The rumours of Parcells leaving ruined the Patriots? experience at Super Bowl XXXI, and Green Bay laid a 35-21 licking on Kraft?s team.

And this was on the heels of a region that hailed Kraft as a hero by buying the team and keeping it here in Massachusetts. James Busch Orthwein, the owner who hired Parcells, hailed from St. Louis and wanted to move the team there. But Kraft, who owned Foxborough Stadium, bought the team from Orthwein in 1994 and kept it here in the region.

And now, with a Super Bowl championship in his clutches, Kraft?s football experience has come completely full circle, and then some. He came in as a hero, then slipped to the point of near mockery status, and is now on the highest pedestal he will ever be on in his life. With new CMGi Field poised to open in the fall of 2002, Kraft will have cemented his legacy here in the region, a legacy that will likely exceed that of all other owners in the history of the region."

http://www.bossports.net/patriots/031102.shtml

[TD_washingtonredskins]

I have a buddy who is a Pats fan and all he does is blast Snyder. I am so sick of all the Pats fans claiming they have the best run organization and the best owner, blah, blah, blah. WHAT THEY FORGET TO REALIZE IS THAT KRAFT WAS NO BETTER THAN SNYDER WHEN HE BOUGHT THE PATS--the "TRUE" Pats fans hated him for his meddling. Once Kraft learned to step back and let his people handle things--they started to win. Much like Snyder is doing now.

Here is a great excerpt from an article to inform these so-called "TRUE" Pats fans of the truth:

"Not long ago, many other New England folk had bad feelings for Kraft, and not just HRH King Thomas Finneran. Five years ago, Bill Parcells was managing to pry himself from the Patriots, and Kraft was at the root of the reason why. Kraft turned into a meddling owner, getting involved in team business that he knew nothing about nor had any business getting into. The rumours of Parcells leaving ruined the Patriots? experience at Super Bowl XXXI, and Green Bay laid a 35-21 licking on Kraft?s team.

And this was on the heels of a region that hailed Kraft as a hero by buying the team and keeping it here in Massachusetts. James Busch Orthwein, the owner who hired Parcells, hailed from St. Louis and wanted to move the team there. But Kraft, who owned Foxborough Stadium, bought the team from Orthwein in 1994 and kept it here in the region.

And now, with a Super Bowl championship in his clutches, Kraft?s football experience has come completely full circle, and then some. He came in as a hero, then slipped to the point of near mockery status, and is now on the highest pedestal he will ever be on in his life. With new CMGi Field poised to open in the fall of 2002, Kraft will have cemented his legacy here in the region, a legacy that will likely exceed that of all other owners in the history of the region."

http://www.bossports.net/patriots/031102.shtml

Yep, when the stars align and things fall into place (most of which are out of the owner's control) and you win a SB, you're instantly a great owner.