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WT: Early line: Don't bet on Redskins


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Early line: Don't bet on Redskins

By Rick Snider

THE WASHINGTON TIMES

http://www.washingtontimes.com/functions/print.php?StoryID=20050610-123205-3845r

The Las Vegas early line says to bet against the Washington Redskins this season, especially on the road. The Redskins are underdogs in 11 of 16 games, including every road contest.

The Plaza Hotel and Casino this week became the first Nevada sports book to post spreads on every game through Super Bowl XL (AFC minus-4). Plaza race and sports book director Lou D'Amico said he's ?an old Redskins fan from the Sonny Jurgensen era? but didn't like Washington too often.

The Redskins are favored at home over Chicago, San Francisco, Oakland, Dallas and the New York Giants. Otherwise, the smart money is on their opponents.

However, Washington backers quickly moved the line a half-point on the Dallas game Sept. 19, making the Cowboys 31/2-point favorites instead of four in the Monday nighter. It seems the rivalry is felt in Las Vegas, too.

?The Redskins-Cowboys game still has that mystique to it,? D'Amico said. ?I remember when I was a kid. it was such a rivalry. It still is, maybe not as strong, but it's still there.?

D'Amico also has Washington 50-1 to win the Super Bowl, while Dallas is 35-1.

The future lines were created to attract summer tourists who seldom return during football season. Last year, one Atlanta fan bet $500 on every Falcons game. Winning bettors can mail their tickets to the Plaza for redemption.

?There's really no advantage of the customers versus the bookmakers,? D'Amico said. ?The [professionals] are not going to look at weeks 13, 14, 15 unless [indianapolis quarterback] Peyton Manning goes down in week 1 or 2.?

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I remember some years ago, we went 0-4 in the preseason and all of the odds makers and media pundits wrote us off. Saying things like: the team is too old, Gibbs has lost his touch,etc.

Regular season starts and we start off 11-0. Just goes to show: What do they know??................Nothing!

HTTR :)

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so im not sure how these odds/lines work, but if we are 50:1 to win the super bowl, does that mean if i put in like 100$ now that we win the super bowl, that multiplies by 50?

Thatd be the easiest 4,900 I have ever made.

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Originally posted by Mr. S

so im not sure how these odds/lines work, but if we are 50:1 to win the super bowl, does that mean if i put in like 100$ now that we win the super bowl, that multiplies by 50?

Thatd be the easiest 4,900 I have ever made.

You'll have to get your older brother to make that bet for you and he'll want a cut.

"?There's really no advantage of the customers versus the bookmakers,? D'Amico said. ?The [professionals] are not going to look at weeks 13, 14, 15 unless [indianapolis quarterback] Peyton Manning goes down in week 1 or 2.?"

BS the house always have the advantage

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Originally posted by LivestrongSkins

Those odds are a crapshoot. So pretty much if we go 6-10 we beat the vegas odds....... ummm ill take that

I think vegas needs to dust off their crystal ball :fortune:

It's not that easy, in 6 games we not only have to beat the team we have to beat the spread, In 10 games you would be betting for the Redskins to lose against the spread, if they win, you lose.

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The Ravens are favored in 12 of 16 games.

Their defense was ranked lower than the Redskins' last year + they lost Boulware and Hartwell which is equivalent to us losing Smoot and Pierce.

They are even more unproven at the QB and WR positions than the Redskins.

Their schedule is about as difficult as the Skins - they have to play Indy, Pittsburgh twice, Denver away, and deal with a Cincy team that showed a lot of improvement at the end of the season.

The Ravens are superior to the Skins in 2 positions: MLB (Lewis) and safety (Reed). You could argue a slight edge at RB (J. Lewis vs Portis) and LT (Ogden vs Samuels).

If the oddsmakers are 100% correct, the Ravens will go 12-4 and the Skins will go 5-11. I just don't see 7 games difference between the teams.

The best use for those odds is to print them out and use them at the bottom of the bird cage.

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oddsmakers are never 100% correct, they don't need to be. These are early odds and they will change leading up to and throughout the season. That the oddsmakers think the Ravens are a better team at this point has no disadvantage to the Casino's.

The oddsmakers are trying to set the mark where the will win 50% of the time, tie always goes to the house, they use the 1/2 point always to their advantage. Of course there are upsets, majority of money going to the house. If you bet just one game on a card for one dollar you are not going to get 2 dollars back.

Most people will bet on 3 or more games at a time to improve their potential winnings but that decreases their chances, If you bet on all 16 games in a season, regardless of the spread your odds of winning are pretty bad, flip a coin 16 times and try to predict all 16 flips, see how many times your right. If you hit all 16 games, you just hit the jack pot.

Edit: So this is a new game, I didn't know about.

http://www.plazahotelcasino.com/press_room/press-coverage.php?IDRelease=197

Here is the press release:

Bet the NFL Season

For the first time in all of sports betting history, the Plaza and Vegas Club Sports Books will set the line for every game throughout the entire NFL season. Starting Monday, September 6, 2004, sports betters were able to place bets on their favorite teams for any game at any point in the season, in just one visit to the classic Downtown Las Vegas hotel/casinos.

Las Vegas Sun: NFL Lines by Jeff Haney

Two full months before the opening of pro football training camps, the Plaza hotel-casino downtown has posted betting lines on each and every NFL game on the 2005-06 schedule.

Betting lines for the first week of the NFL season have been available for several weeks at a couple of Las Vegas sports books, including the Plaza, but now bettors who are so inclined can place a wager on any game, Week 1 through Week 17.

(In the 5:30 p.m. game in Week 17, on Sunday, Jan. 1, 2006, the Dallas Cowboys are favored by 2 points against the St. Louis Rams. Jump on it now -- that line's steaming to 3!)

After evidently working their share of two-a-days, Plaza oddsmakers have also posted regular-season victory totals for each NFL team. Bettors can wager the team's number of victories will fall over or under the posted total.

The highest number on the board, 12 wins, is attached to the Indianapolis Colts. Bettors must lay minus-120 (risk $1.20 for each $1 they're trying to win) on over 12 wins for Indy, minus-110 on under 12.

The Super Bowl champion New England Patriots check in at 11 1/2 victories, with a premium of minus-150 (bettors risk $1.50 for each $1 they're trying to win) on the under.

The Philadelphia Eagles, who came up short against the Patriots in the Super Bowl, are also listed at 11 1/2, but with a premium of minus-150 on the over.

The San Francisco 49ers, who finished 2-14 last season, are projected to improve only slightly, to 3 1/2 wins.

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I'm a betting man and the Redskins covered on the road last year in Philly, Pittsburgh, and San Francisco plus the under was a good bet with our defense. They dont even know what kind of team we'll have this year because the season hasn't started. I lived in Vegas for a year and bet on football. These guys really knew the Chargers would win there division last year and the Chiefs would be so lousy? No they didn't they were as surprised as the rest of the football world.

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First of all a "tie," or a push, is just that - a tie, and you get your money back. The house has no advantage in whether you win or lose, but most bets carry a little juice, so if you bet 10 dollars, you will get about 9.50 or so back (your 10 plust another 9.50 for a total of 19.50), thats how the bookmakers will make their money. They take any bet you want, but only give u slightly less back in profit than your original bet. Some bets will payout more however, if you bet on an underdog to win straight up, for example. On any given spread or propositional bet, or the over/under, you have a 50% chance of randomly picking the winner, and if you actually know squat about sports, which is a prerequisite for successful sports betting, your chances should be better than 50%. Also, the author of this article is somewhat confused. Just because the skins are underdogs in most of the games, does not mean the "smart money" is on the other team. Thats the whole point of a spread, to even out the advantage one team has over another and give each team a more or less 50% chance of covering the spread. As someone mentioned bfore, sometimes you will get wacky spreads, and those are the best times to capitalize. Spreads are created partially from raw data and stats, but also partially by public perceptions, which can often lead to an abnormal spread - since most people perceive certain matchups incorrectly. Sports betting is probably one of the best ways to make money, not the worst, as long as you know something about the teams that you're betting on.

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odd put out this early are for idoit who dont understand football, the sun paper all but said this from the odds amkers themselves. any team isone injury from loing any game even the patriots though they seem to withstand most injuries.

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There is never a tie or a push when your are betting against a single spead, you might have a tie or a push if you are betting multiple games, if you pick 5 of 6 you might have a push. Spreads always have a 1/2 point, a game is never decided by a 1/2 point, thus there is never a tie. Just like horses and craps there are so many ways to bet and more knowledge gives you a better advantage, but make no mistake, your knowledge is only going to be equal to the casino at best. Like every aspect of gambling the casino holds the edge and in most cases it is much much better than 51%.

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As others have said, these lines are set up to work in the casino's favor. Not to be clear prognostacations for th upcoming season.

Do you really think the casinos can or are trying to accurately predict what the situation is going to be for a Redskin game that will be played at Christmas time? Or New Years?

In June??

These VERY early betting lines are just for fools and the money they'll soon be parted from. :)

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Originally posted by Om

Just wondering ... we all do understand that betting odds have NOTHING to do with football, but everything to do with the average betting fan's perception of it, right?

gambling preys on stupidity. Keno has horrible odds, but everyone plays it.

Average fans will bet 50-1 for their team to win the Super Bowl or bet a 12 team parlay. Average fans will bet with their hearts.

Allmost all of those bets go to the casino.

These lines are set by perception, especially at this point, but as more information is revealed, the lines will change, If peyton manning goes down in preseason, you won't be able to bet the under on 12 wins, so it does have to do with actual football. It is ever changing based on the perception of actual football events.

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That's all true, dan. I'd just point out that, even within that, odds are still set based on what casino's expect the average betting fan's perception of the league to be at any given time.

Obviously the lines change as the season nears and more information comes available. But it still has to do with trying to split the average betting fan base straight down the middle. They have to determine where Joe Betting Man thinks that middle is.

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I would say thats exactly what they are trying to do, split it 50/50 but at the sametime the oddsmakers also influencing and creating joe average betting mans perception just as much as peter king.

Also a line might fluctuate soley based on too many bets being placed on one side of it, tues morning the line is 7 1/2 and too many people jump on it, the oddsmaker might drop it to 6 1/2 to get the closer to a 50/50 balance.

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Originally posted by denverdan

There is never a tie or a push when your are betting against a single spead, you might have a tie or a push if you are betting multiple games, if you pick 5 of 6 you might have a push. Spreads always have a 1/2 point, a game is never decided by a 1/2 point, thus there is never a tie. Just like horses and craps there are so many ways to bet and more knowledge gives you a better advantage, but make no mistake, your knowledge is only going to be equal to the casino at best. Like every aspect of gambling the casino holds the edge and in most cases it is much much better than 51%.

Sure there is, hapens all the time. Spreads do NOT always have a half-point. In fact, they often don't. I've pushed many times in my life, and they were ALL on spreads. maybe one or 2 over/unders. I dunno what sportbook you're usin.

edit: except for baseball runlines, which are always 1.5. Many football and basketball spreads, however, are round numbers. You can start by lookin at the skins/bears spread, which is washingtin -4.0

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Regular season starts and we start off 11-0. Just goes to show: What do they know??................Nothing!

Yeah... and guess who said NO to 12-0! The Cowpukes!

This year is different... I'm betting Dallas doesn't score and never crosses into our territory. :paranoid:

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