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Extremeskins

Going Commando

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Everything posted by Going Commando

  1. @Skinsinparadise I've been meaning to recommend going back and watching Kingsley Suamataia again after I did it myself. I think he might be the most raw of the top OT prospects from a football IQ and pass set footwork perspective, but there is something there to work with for sure. His set technique looked like a disaster TBH. Almost no NFL style pass pro setting in some of his games, no syncing of hands and feet, he looks really slow to react when he needs to mirror counters, and he's always about a step behind reading blitz. His football IQ just isn't there yet, and he needs a lot of technical development. But his play strength is ridiculous. There is so much natural power in his core and his hands that he can completely stone rushers without even squaring up to them. He has these huge, super heavy hands with really long arms and wingspan that give him a huge margin for error on his footwork. And he is actually really good with his hands too. Excellent hand fighter who demolishes power rushers that try and long arm him and play through him. His anchor is unique too--he can anchor without dropping his hips. He can just kind of grab guys and stop them cold on pure arm and upper body strength. He's one of the strongest tackles I think I've ever seen at the college level. He's pretty fast too, and looks like he can eventually be a quality run blocker. Normally I don't like to target players that are as far away as Kingsley is, but after seeing the Eagles develop Jordan Mailata, it's hard not to think about that kind of potential with Kingsley. The game is a lot less stressful when you have freakish natural strength. The OL coach who teaches this dude how to read the game, set, and move his feet is going to earn their money, as the payoff from that kind of project could be huge. I want to take some big swings in this draft, and I like the risk/reward calculus on Kingsley in the second round. But I would also probably follow that bet up with a bet on a cleaner prospect like Dominic Puni later in the draft.
  2. Not me. I don't really like either of them anywhere near as much as Maye, but I like Daniels better than McCarthy. I like Michael Penix though. No way I would choose him instead of Maye, but if we were picking third, I would trade back and pick him instead of Daniels or McCarthy top five. I think he's better than both of them. He's a lot stronger than them and he's creative and anticipates really well. I think his pocket mobility and elusiveness are the best in the class, and he sees the field almost as well as Maye and Williams. Aside from his injury history, the only thing I don't like about his game is the ugly, super low release.
  3. The video NBC Sports Boston made for JJ. He's pretty good. Good decision maker and he has special speed and agility. He's similar to Daniels in a lot of ways. Better vision than Daniels, better decision making as a runner. A little thicker of a build. The arm talent is just not impressive, and he has no play strength either. No anticipation in his throws. Almost no creativity. He's the third option in his offense, and he's not getting unpredictable pressure, which makes clean decision making far easier. I don't really see what the big deal is with him. To me he's QB5, and even that feels like a fairly generous bet on his upside. He's clean and he won a lot of games, but what is special about him beyond his running ability? Mac Jones won a lot of games too, it's not that hard to do when you're an NFL track QB who is like the fifth best player in your offense.
  4. Looks like a hype video put together for Patriots fans by their local cable affiliate. It's got a higher production value than a typical YouTube highlight video. The video helps demonstrate how good his deep ball to the sidelines is, and how fast he is when he breaks the pocket. But it also shows you how garbage those SEC defenses really were, and how bad his vision and decision making as a runner are. That instinct of his to cut the ball back upfield late is going to keep him on the sidelines in the NFL. And that is the best and most explosive WR trio in the country. It's ridiculous how many big plays they hit where one of those three is running open deep, and he's either got a clean pocket. There just isn't very much creativity as a passer in Jayden's highlights or his film as a whole. Most of the creativity he demonstrated was as a runner. His stock has been boosted by hitting a ton of big plays this season that don't really translate to the NFL. QB draws into the middle of the field, scrambles into the middle of the field after he's climbed the ladder, chunk runs where he's made the edge defender miss by cutting the ball back towards the middle of the field, deep posts where there is no safety and his receiver has multiple steps on the DB, fades and go balls where his receivers won leverage off the line of scrimmage and have multiple steps on the corner early. He hits these for TDs and 30 yard runs and they just aren't going to be there in the NFL.
  5. The only trade I would accept to give up #2 is for a current star QB like Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, or Joe Burrow. There is no reason to pass up taking Drake Maye at 2. This is the best opportunity we are going to get with Adam Peters and Dan Quinn for having a star QB that let's us compete with the big dogs. Getting a blue chip QB prospect in year one of a coach and GM tenure is the Holy Grail of team building, and to fumble this opportunity would be to commit a Ron Rivera level mistake that will eventually get everyone fired. If you have no QB, you have nothing. No build, no job security, no chance to compete. All of the first round picks we can possibly receive in trade are not worth the chance we were gifted for drafting one of the best QB prospects of the decade.
  6. The rule of thumb I'm settling on is if the player gets into +10 value range, then that is when I consider a trade up. I have Bowers at 3 overall on the board, and Verse at 6 overall. So if either hits ~15, then I try and trade up for them. I've got Fuaga and Fashanu at 9 and 10, so they enter trade up territory by ~20, increasingly so by the mid 20s. I've got Morgan and Alt in the early 20s, so by the early 30s I consider moving up. Yes I recognize I am far lower on Alt than the consensus and he's not going to make it to the 20s, much less the 30s. I need that kind of value from the pick to compensate for the fact I'm losing a prospect in exchange.
  7. Every single source I've seen has it at 34. Where are you getting 33 1/8 from?
  8. Someone will emerge to play LT. And if it doesn't happen this year, that's OK. We don't need a dominant player there either. The truth is that the shotgun spread passing game killed the premium value of the OT position, and many of the best lines in the NFL are running low drafted developmental types at LT, who aren't special players. Look at what Philly, Chicago, Kansas City, and Green Bay all have at LT. We can be OK if we have to go this route too. If we have to draft a Kingsley Suamataia or Patrick Paul or Blake Fisher or Kiran Amegadjie in the second or third round, then that is a good outcome.
  9. I'm looking at pictures of him to see if they are noticeable, or if there is something wrong with them and they look normal in most pictures. I watched him again looking specifically at his grip strength and ability to hold blocks, and it is a notable strength for him. He's significantly better at sustaining blocks in pass pro than Alt is. The only thing I can think of is maybe it partially explains why he isn't that impressive of a run blocker at the second level, and has trouble reaching and sealing defenders. It's not a clearly defined weakness for OLs like arm length is. As such, I don't think I'm going to drop him because of it. I think he's OT2 behind Fuaga, and has a compelling argument for OT1, because he definitely has the highest ceiling at the position in the class to me. He might have the best lateral speed I've ever seen for a LT, and that's coupled with an anchor that is already NFL caliber and is a tool that is probably going to get significantly stronger over the next few years. He never got beaten for a sack in college, and I think his issues in the run game might be a bit overstated/fixable. Penn State ran a gap heavy scheme that put a lot on Olu to hit tough second level targets and have those two super blue chip RBs they've got create from the backfield. It worked pretty well despite the lack of clean and consistent execution from Olu and the OL. Those two backs are unbelievably good. I think Olu's NFL team is going to run a lot more zone, or they'll put more of the heavy lifting on the guards from gap runs. NFL guard play is way better, and the OTs usually get easier run blocks as a result. Olu is one of the guys I'd consider moving up for, along with Fuaga. If he makes it into the 20s, I would package 36 and one of the thirds to get him. But I wouldn't do that for any of the other OLs aside from Fuaga and maybe Latham. I would consider making a similar trade for Latu. I would probably do it for Arnold, Wiggins, or Mitchell too. But I don't think they will drop to the 20s, and I'm holding out hope that Joe Witt can work some magic with St Juste, Quan, and Forbes.
  10. A reach is a reach, no matter the justification. If you pick a guy from tier 4 when guys from tier 3 were available, that is a reach and a mistake. The best way to support a QB is to give him a loaded team. Aaron Donald doesn't play on the same side of the ball as Matt Stafford, but he won Matt Stafford a Super Bowl. Ditto for Stephon Gilmore and Tom Brady. We need to hunt for impact talent at all of our draft picks, and there is every chance in the world that it's defensive players who are BPA in the second round rather than an OL or WR.
  11. Maye is one of the prospects of the decade, but so is Williams. Williams is THE prospect of the decade. He's better than Maye and basically has the status of "should go #1 in any class." The Bears are going to pick him, they aren't dumb. Our only shot at getting Williams was to finish #1, or have Caleb himself force his way to us. But that was never very likely to happen, as we are certainly no better than the Bears. The sole advantage we have on them is that our coach and GM are in their first years, but a QB like Caleb gets everyone job security.
  12. You're getting into the mindset of reaching for needs. That is the Ron Rivera way. Think about which specific players you want at which slots, not which positions. We are not loading up for a Super Bowl run next year. We need good players all over the roster. The best way to use this draft is to get our QB, then draft BPA at all of our picks. The regime will not end in burning failure if we don't get a good day one starting LT out of this draft. We absolutely do not need to force anything at OT in the draft. What we need to do is pick hits, and the best way to do that is by staying patient and drafting BPA.
  13. Paying a future Hall of Famer in his prime is worth whatever contract they end up getting. Jefferson is a far more valuable asset at any price point because he's one of the best players in the league. Guys like that usually don't hit free agency. The contracts that are problematic are the ones for guys who set the market and they're like the 12th best player at their position, which is who usually hits free agency. Kirk Cousins for 40 million a year.
  14. I got the sense of that from watching some of their TV segments. They were struggling to explain or even deliver their takes, which is what happens when it's a take created for you by someone else. Guys like Simms, Riddick, Orlovsky, etc. who are do it all football analysts for their networks: color commentary on game broadcasts, panelists on pregame/halftime shows, contributors on the talk show programming like GMF and Get Up, etc. are not doing real draftnik work like a Dane Brugler is. They're definitely not doing real scouting work as Conn put it so well. Their analysis is meant for entertainment and rapid consumption. Inconsequential narrative creation that tells the story of a seasonal segment of the NFL show. It doesn't matter if what they come up with is dead wrong, as long as it is compelling and easy to follow. Fans don't really remember or mind the bad takes, because there is always a fresh season of content to follow, which always generates new and interesting stories and takes. The NFL Draft is now one of the premier story telling seasons in pro football, and sometimes the work these guys do is actually at odds with good evaluation, because clean and uncontroversial analysis makes for bad story telling. We over here in our tiny spot of the pro football media universe are toiling away to find the truth in our evaluation and generate the best and most accurate takes that we can, and I think it's because we've become obsessed with this projection market due to the void in team building ability of the people who've run this franchise for 30 years. Almost every year, we're stuck looking at the draft for like 8 months as an outlet for frustration and a path for hope. It's quixotic because we have no power, no training, and very rough and incomplete tools. But we actually get stuff right here, and incrementally learn and improve when we don't. We started keeping records, and we started building annual consensus like a scouting team would in an actual NFL front office. And watching football this way has been much more interesting and satisfying than just narrowly following a team you've almost never believed in for 30 years. And for me personally, I feel the need to constantly "check the work" of the people running this franchise, as well as hold the pro football story tellers to even a relaxed standard of truth. It's necessary for my sanity.
  15. Orlovsky is a play by play broadcaster and a good one. He is not a draftnik nor a skilled talent evaluator. Neither is Chris Simms, nor is Kurt Warner. They're TV guys whose job is doing broadcasts and NFL analysis, and the only reason they're moonlighting with draft content is because it's the current topic for NFL analysis and driving viewership for their programs. Draft stuff is not their expertise, not their livelihood, and not even a passion project for them. And none of them are good at it. I know people on this board that I think are absolutely better at college prospect evaluation and projection than them, and I think most of the analysis that Simms and Orlovsky offer is actually just second/third hand stuff they hear from agents and team employees that talk to them. Stuff that's often tainted by agenda. Their own agenda isn't accurate evaluation or projection, and there are absolutely no consequences for them for bad evaluation. Their agenda is to make TV content.
  16. TV guys like Orlovsky aren't t even draftniks, much less serious evaluators. Their job is making TV content. Their goal isn't good evaluation, it's making content and generating discussion and creating unnuanced, easily digestible narratives. We definitely should not be caring about what they say on prospects, they are shockingly bad at this. We should be forming our own takes period. But failing that, we should listen to the draftnik media guys for whom this is their passion and livelihood.
  17. Caleb is a better prospect than Stroud was. Prospects are just prospects though. It's also not just Caleb vs Stroud, they're probably getting Odunze too, and they got Moore. Feels like that offense is about to tap dance on the NFC. They are loaded now. Brutal division, but they should be able to hang with Green Bay and Detroit long term.
  18. You're not crazy. I like Penix over Daniels too. He's playing with a stacked set of weapons and a Joe Moore line too, but I think his playmaking translates better to the NFL. I agree that he sees the field better than Daniels and is a better decision maker. And mainly I think he's got a way better body and arm than Daniels. He's a power thrower and he has spectacular touch. Doesn't have to load up at all, can lean back and just smoke it or fade it 30 yards down field with perfect touch. And he has awesome pocket mobility with really great feel for the rush. He's instinctive, and he's a star where, as with Maye and Williams, the burden of offensive creation was on him, making advanced NFL style plays from the pocket. This is not true for Nix/Daniels/McCarthy. I just rewatched the LSU-Florida State game and was shocked at how slow Daniels's far hash come backs were. His receivers are just sitting still waiting on him to pull the trigger, and then waiting even longer for the ball to finally show up. Jayden just doesn't have any playing strength, not in his core, not in his arm, and not in his legs. If you don't have any power, then you have to be elite with your instincts and ****ing fly through your reads and anticipate, which he doesn't do either. That's why the kid didn't make any plays outside of the run game until he was a fifth year senior playing in a pristine pocket and getting a ton of wide open looks every game. There is no chance I would pick Penix over Maye, but if we weren't in position to draft Maye, I agree with you that I would prefer trading back and getting Penix to drafting Daniels in the top five, much less trading up for Daniels. I like him way better than JJ McCarthy too, FWIW. But I honestly have no idea where he's going to be drafted, because that right knee is probably cooked. He could go in the first round, or he could go in the fourth. But a healthy Penix Jr feels like a peer to Maye and Williams, and it wouldn't surprise me if he stays healthy at the next level and ends up being the best QB from the class. Probably going to be the best QB from the group right out of the gate, if they all get drafted into decent situations. He sees the game and reads it so much faster than the other guys do right now, and his bag of tools and tricks is ready to go year one.
  19. I'd only watched ND for Alt and Estime, so I went back and watched some of the cut ups for Fisher. In summary, I'm intrigued but I think his pass pro looks pretty raw. My biggest critique would be that he gets heavy footed on his set and just kind of plants and falls behind the edge rusher and then he has to start turning and leaning and it messes up his contact balance. Almost like he's over correcting for inside counters, or maybe his feet just get slow after contact. I think he's going to need time to improve his pass pro, but that there are a lot of really positive traits on display with him. His length looks outstanding and his punch is legitimately good for being a somewhat raw tool. He has real strength in his hands and excels at benching or stunning rushers to create space in which to work. And he has a good first step. He has a tendency to fall asleep and be late off the snap, but his actual speed is good when he times the snap right. His bucket step can be explosive. He's twitchy and I think he looks good climbing and running. Stays under control and finds his landmarks and just looks really fluid and comfortable in the run game. I'm glad you brought him up, because I like him. He makes a lot of mistakes that look like typical failures of young players, but he physically looks like a future starter. And his run game work actually looks pretty clean and natural. Both PFF and Tankathon have him projected for the third round, and that feels a little low to me. I could see him going in the second round.
  20. He absolutely doesn't have higher upside than Drake Maye. Maye's upside is way higher because his physical traits are way better and he was a way better player at a younger age. I'd be upset if they picked Daniels over Maye because it's a clear mistake that only a poor evaluator would make IMO. I don't think Peters is a poor evaluator, and he hasn't really made any mistakes so far. But this would be an incredibly bad one to make. I think the other QB hungry teams near the top of the draft are pumping out Daniels smoke and Maye shade in the hopes that we'll do something dumb and let Maye fall to them. I think it's incredible that any serious evaluator could prefer the 200 pound beanpole with a mediocre arm, who didn't break out until he was a fifth year senior in a stacked offense, who is scared to throw into the middle of the field unless it's cleared out and he's got a completely clean throwing lane, but whose field side throws outside of the numbers also take ten years to show up, who will bolt at a hint of pressure if his first read isn't going to uncover, who also likes to step up and run right through the middle of the field and do clown stuff like cut it back into the contact with zero forward momentum or jump directly into the pile, over the blue chip RS Sophomore QB who was a stone cold top five lock after his first year as a starter. This has never been a real choice between Maye and Daniels. Maye is obviously the better prospect and he is obviously the one we should draft at 2. The level of obfuscation that has happened on this topic is ridiculous.
  21. I think it means everything they do is part of the show that is the Dallas Cowboys. I wouldn't be surprised if there is a tourism/open air museum style of feel to their facilities, and they let fans pay to come watch the players. The Cowboys are the ultimate show. The team itself is just good enough to keep the show plausible and compelling, but the real business of Dallas (and the NFL) is to entertain and hold viewership, more than it is to be efficiently competitive. They're the best at this in the NFL, and at times this goal is at odds with best practices for actually winning the game at the heart of the show.
  22. I'll pick for the Jags again. I stepped in for the Saints last year too, but would prefer to not draft for them. They've got a strange slate of picks where they have about 15 in rounds 5-7 and nothing in 3 and 4. If someone wants to basically run the draft in round 5, have at them.
  23. Last year's CB group was like this year's OT group: deep but pretty flawed. I think Witherspoon would be CB1 in this group, comfortably so. But after that, I think it would be Mitchell, Wiggins, Arnold, and then probably DeJean. The top four corners in this class are unusually good. Gonzalez wasn't really a special prospect. He coasted on softer Pac-12 offenses but got clowned by Georgia. This draft class has about 12 defensive players in it who stand out to me as being head and shoulders above the rest, and worthy of a first round pick (before medicals are considered), and four of them are the corners: 1 - Jared Verse 2 - Dallas Turner 3 - Nate Wiggins 4 - Quinyon Mitchell 5 - Terrion Arnold 6 - Byron Murphy 7 - T'Vondre Sweat 8 - Cooper DeJean 9 - Laiatu Latu 10 - Peyton Wilson 11 - Jer'Zhan Newton 12 - Darius Robinson I don't think the corners will make it into the 20s. But of that list, I think Robinson, Sweat, and Latu might. Wilson almost certainly will too, but I wouldn't pick him at 36, much less trade up for him. I also wouldn't trade up for Sweat, but I would consider picking him at 36. I think he's flying under the radar because of his weight.
  24. I've got DeJean as CB4. Kool-Aid is CB5 for me. I wouldn't trade up for Kool-Aid, just wait and see if he was still there at 36. I'm having a tough time ranking the top three. Probably go with Mitchell CB1 since he has the best combo of film/traits. Arnold has the best film, Wiggins the best traits. But none of them have bad film, and scheme preference of the teams that pick corners will determine their draft order. Wiggins plays with 4.2 speed, that's for sure. I still can't believe the play where he chased down Omarion Hampton and forced the touchback on what was a surefire housecall TD. It was Darrell Green esque.
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