Going Commando

Peters went to a bunch of UNC practices.  He's known about Drake Maye for a while.  NFL personnel people absolutely track players who show NFL potential in future classes.  Not finalizing your evaluations on them is different than not scouting them.

24 minutes ago, Conn said:

This won’t happen but my tentative ideal might be Chop at 36, best OT at 40, then some combo of CB, WR, TE in the 3rd if it falls well for us 

Personally, I'm not that high on Chop.  Tools are as special as it gets, but he just isn't an impact player.  Maybe that changes if you give him a featured role in a Dan Quinn defense, I don't know.  But I don't like making those kinds of bets.  To me, Jonah Elliss, Bralen Trice, and Austin Booker are all much better players, all in that second tier of edge rusher behind the top four guys (Verse, Turner, Latu, D Robinson), and all likely to be cheaper than Chop.

My ideal scenario is to get Kingsley Suamataia and either Xavier Legette or Ladd McConkey or Kool-Aid McKinstry with 36 and 40.

48 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

You're really that dedicated to that interpretation of what the take away should be on that play?

 

I watch that and I see someone w/the same ability to avoid body trauma as Super Dave Osborne. That's the take away, not that that evil meanie on FSU decided to hit the idiot who decided to run head first, upright, into a gigantic pile of defenders and thank god there was a penalty. 

I do not understand what he was thinking.  It was a first down scramble, not a short yardage run where you might move the chains by leaping over the pile.  Why the **** did he try and hurdle a defender in the middle of the scrum?  Well I know why, it's because the guy literally can't see past the man in front of him and he had zero plan beyond making that DT miss.  He has terrible vision as a runner.

Also that was never going to be a targeting call.  Jayden's head is way up in the air because he jumped, like a dummy.  No ref is going to bail out a ball carrier for doing something that stupid.

I want to know what MH Jr's 40 time is.  Is it in AJ Green/CeeDee Lamb territory?  Or is it in Calvin Johnson/Julio Jones territory?  Put it this way, if he were running low 4.3s in training, he would have run for scouts this offseason. 

So assume he runs in the upper 4.4 to 4.5 territory like Green and Lamb.  When deciding between Nabers and Harrison Jr, you ask yourself who would you rather have?  Jamarr Chase or CeeDee Lamb?  You're getting an All Pro either way, but I'd definitely rather have Chase.

15 minutes ago, KDawg said:

1. Marvin Harrison Jr - don't overthink this. He is the class of the class.

I like Nabers over Harrison because I think he's faster and more explosive.  I've had him over Harrison for a couple of months, but haven't posted my board in a while.

I recognize that Nabers had a big advantage at QB this year compared to Harrison though.  McCord sucked, and Harrison looked a lot better when Stroud was running the offense.  But Jayden was just erratic enough with his vertical pass placement to let Nabers show off how good his ability to adjust to throws in the he air is.

On my overall big board, I have Nabers #4 in the class, between Bowers at 3 and Harrison at 5.  I think he's a faster OBJ.

13 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

I am thrilled to see someone else as high on XL as I am. He seems to have slipped some especially after he "shrank 2"" on many boards. As much as you like McConkey, I would have figured you'd have at least him over XL.

I think the consensus has fallen way too far on XL.  I still think he's a first round talent.  I see AJ Brown in his film, and I put him over Ladd even though Ladd is more skilled because he is so much more of a beast in his physical traits than Ladd.  At the end of the day, Legette is a 6'1 220 pound horse who plays like he is 220.  He runs as fast as McLaurin and has a 40 inch vertical.  He's a stud on contested catches and Spencer Rattler made life hard on him, and he always answered the bell despite getting the absolute hell beaten out of him all year.  He also has a great top gear that he can hit in the open field, and you're just not going to bring down a guy that powerful running that fast once he hits it.

The late breakout age is a concern, but the light bulb came on big for him this year.  I love his combo of pure toughness and aggression and speed.  I would love to get him at 36, and feel that he is just as good a value there as McConkey.

15 minutes ago, philibusters said:

 

The things that sticks about that list to me is just how much lower you are on the Texas WR's than the consensus.

I think they stink, but I can't leave them off my list because of how fast they are.  Worthy is a skinny straight line burner with no functional strength and no elusiveness and no ball tracking nor contested catch skill.  Mitchell is a diva WR without the aggressiveness that makes you put up with a diva WR.  He's the kind of prospect that will fall through the cracks in an NFL receiver room, but he'll get a chance because of his return skills.

4 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

We lose the trade, but if our guy is Maye all along and we still get him, it doesn't matter. Get your guy and add a future pick. Pats win the trade on trade-value pretty big, but they're being asked to essentially forego a QB so that makes sense.

 

One can dream

The Pats take a massive L on value and would never accept that deal.  Those three first round picks are not even remotely close enough in value for the Vikings to jump to three, let alone two.

It'd take 3 first round picks AND day two change AND players for Minnesota to get to #2 from 11 in a QB class this strong.

This is my WR ranking:

1 - Malik Nabers

2 - Marvin Harrison

3 - Rome Odunze

4 - Brian Thomas

5 - Xavier Legette

6 - Ladd McConkey

7 - Troy Franklin

8 - Keon Coleman

9 - Ricky Pearsall

10 - Jamari Thrash

11 - Roman Wilson

12 - Malachi Corley

13 - Ja'Lynn Polk

14 - Malik Washington

15 - Johnnie Wilson

16 - Tez Walker

17 - Jacob Cowing

18 - Xavier Worthy

19 - Jalen McMillan

20 - Adonai Mitchell

One thing that Top Golf-gate revealed is that this team has a first round grade on Michael Penix and not on Bo Nix.  He's peer to McCarthy, Maye, and Daniels, and Nix is not.

Penix is the also-ran who feels like he could end up winning the race.  Something about that dude worries me.  Like he's going to drop, end up on a good team, and then be the best QB of the bunch, and we're going to get an endless narrative about how dumb we were to pass over him for the duration of his career.

Anyway, I'm glad we're getting a QB this year instead of next, or not having to try and make it work with a mid rounder like Travis or Rattler.  The five first rounders in this year's class are all head and shoulders better than those two, as well as any of the top guys for next year.  Ewers and Beck's film isn't even on the same planet as Maye's sophomore film, and Milroe's film is downright painful.  He is terrible.  And Kyle McCord was almost as bad.  Shedeur Sanders comes with a three ring circus, but he already has a massive lead for QB1 next year.  He is going to be over hyped to death.

JJ McCarthy was ready to go pro, and he'll end up in a better situation as QB4 this uear, but if he'd gone back to school for another year I think he easily would have been QB1 in 2025.

2 hours ago, Panninho said:

Maybe it's nothing, but I find it interesting nonetheless

I know what you mean.  ESPN likes to sell themselves as having the professionalism and prestige of a traditional news media even though they have a massive conflict of interest in their reporting because they are broadcasters.  They absolutely have a huge SEC bias, and I'm sure that promoting the conference has nothing to do with wooing them and finally getting them to leave CBS for ESPN.

It's going to get worse when CFB realignment coalesces D1 into a two league system where ESPN controls the TV rights to one of them (SEC-ACC), and CBS, NBC, FOX control the rights to the other (B1G-BIG 12).

There is no way MIT has a football team.

21 minutes ago, Conn said:

This is interesting. It makes me think the vibe they got dealing with our FO was that Jayden was not our guy and wouldn’t be the pick. Getting out in front of not being the #2 pick by making Washington look clueless is the only possible motive here. Otherwise this is fruitless and makes your client’s life harder when he’s drafted here. Only makes sense if they think he’s not the guy.
 

Similar to when Ben Johnson’s agent leaked that he thought Harris was a “basketball guy” who didn’t get football, when it became clear he wasn’t an instant front-runner for the job before the in-person interview that was eventually cancelled by Johnson. Getting ahead of things. 

 

Feels like if my interpretation is correct, we’ll start seeing media people change their guesses and mocks to be Maye, as the agent leaks all over the league. 

I don't want Daniels here at all, I am 100% a Maye guy, but stuff like this happening is part of why I don't like it when we go off the beaten path.  We gain nothing by alienating players and agents.  Maybe Jayden has never been our guy.  I certainly have never even remotely believed he was our best choice.  But what if this had happened, and he actually was our only good choice?

We should have picked our guy by now, and we should be spending our time developing a partnership and rapport between him and our FO and coaching staff, like KC did with Mahomes.  And they didn't even have a high draft pick at the time all of that happened.  QB-HC-GM relationship is not an adversarial relationship where the QB must pass all sorts of tests and succeed in spite of what his franchise puts him through.  It's a true partnership, and QB prospects do need a lot of support and commitment from their teams.

15 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

Wow, what did he do to deserve that take?

Yeah I'm curious too.  I actually liked what I saw from his cut ups.  It wasn't love, but I was definitely intrigued.

49 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I am not a big Worthy guy.  But yeah if its YAC on the first level, I think that's his game.  In theory, I like the idea of a burner as a deep ball threat but I wonder if that's him in the pros?  I can see though a creative offensive mind using his speed as a weapon.

Worthy isn't a deep threat.  It's weird because of how fast he is, but he doesn't generate wins against man coverage on the outside, his ball tracking isn't very good, and his ability to win contested catches is pretty bad.

I think he also lacks elusiveness as a YAC weapon.  On screens, if he can actually make the first man miss, then he gets 0-60 in a heartbeat and can get up field, but it's 50-50 if he can make the first guy miss, and corners play downhill on him in that scenario with zero fear.  That shouldn't really happen with a guy who runs 4.21.

I don't think he's anything special.  He's a slant catcher and WR3 type that is a rail thin straight line runner with no strength.  Legette and Franklin are the two best deep threats left in the class after Brian Thomas comes off the board.

Tez Walker is also a very good deep threat too, but it's the only thing he's good at.

Johnny Wilson is also pretty dangerous as a deep threat.  His build up speed is very threatening to DBs paired with that incredible size.  Look at how soft DBs play him.  Everything opens up underneath for him because of how scared they are of him getting behind them.

He's not Lamar.  Set aside that they are at the opposite ends of the spectrum of precocious early career stardom vs late blooming.  Lamar spent the first five years of his career making a living throwing to tight ends in the middle of the field.  The first and second levels in the middle zones are where he is comfortable. If you call a shallow cross for Jayden, he is going to wait until Brian Thomas is well clear of the NFL hashes before throwing it.  You better be able to pass protect for a long time with him behind center.

3 minutes ago, e16bball said:

But comps are hard, and in fairness, I don’t have a great comp for Jayden either.

I think this is for two reasons:

1 - Jayden doesn't have an NFL body, and you have to reach all of the way back to rookie year Randall Cunningham to find someone with a similar physical profile at the NFL level.

2 - The most obvious modern comps for him are guys who didn't end up being successful for the teams that drafted them: Fields and RGIII.  Nobody wants to compare prospects to guys that didn't work out.  His build and the soft traits like vision/playmaking instincts frustrate comps to other one year wonder type QBs who were more successful, like Burrow.

Comps are nice for conveying a lot of information in shorthand, but they always break down on some point of analysis.

14 minutes ago, RWJ said:

Were you uncomfortable during FA? 

Not really.  It wasn't very impactful either way.  This QB pick is an entirely different matter.

4 minutes ago, Panninho said:

The Commanders are doing their own thing, that's for sure

They are.  And it makes me uncomfortable.  We always try and do everything our own way, and it never works.  Why can't we ever just copy what the successful teams do?  Why do we always have to take a dump on conventional wisdom?

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Tough for me to believe they all secretly prefer Maye but will say the opposite publicly in the hope that group think overtakes Peters' process and takes the wrong player -- and the rest of the NFL much prefers NE where they've embraced their long league dominance, upset about the recent hiccup and they hope NE's domance re-emerges?

 

I get trying to do it but how would it actually succeed?

I don't think the media mouthpieces have many original thoughts or takes.  I think they generally just regurgitate takes given to them by chatty teams and agents, and I think that's mainly who has been pushing the Jayden to DC story in the hopes they can influence outcomes.  And yeah, I absolutely think the broader world doesn't want Maye to end up here.  They either want him for themselves or they just don't see him being successful here.

19 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

I shouldn't be speaking for him, but honestly when it comes to looking at those guys, I think what Commando and I both have is our Zach Wilson/Trey Lance/Danny Dimes going off like a fire alarm. At

I'd say that is the essence of it for me.  I don't have nearly enough confidence in the bet on Daniels to beat the confidence I have in the bet on Maye.  I think Maye is about as good a bet as a team can get on picking a QB high.  I think he looks like the QBs who are the best in the league, I think his upside is in their world, and I think his fit for this franchise is close to ideal.  I don't think any of that is the case with Daniels.  Could he work out?  Absolutely.  But why take the long shot?

The groupthink about Jayden also makes me angry because I think it is so inaccurate.  I don't like being gaslit or sold a bunch of BS.  It feels like the reason so many of the talking heads are comfortable foisting Daniels off on us is because they think we're the ****ty little brother of the NFL and they would rather see Maye end up on one of the good franchises.

7 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

So why assume Peters is going to blow this? 

We'll see what happens on draft night, maybe he takes the QB that I think is the no-brainer choice.  But why assume that he's not going to blow this?  To me, blind faith in this franchise is way more ridiculous than trusting your own eyes.

At the end of the day, we have no power to influence outcomes.  I do understand the coping technique of placing blind faith in whoever seems to have power in the moment, it's just something I'm unwilling to do any more.  That's not fun to me.

9 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

And heck if I genuinely believed it was that level ridiculous as to the choice being that level clear, I'd have zero fear that they aren't take Maye.  Zero. 

Why?  Where does your rock solid confidence in this team's ability to get it right come from?

19 minutes ago, Conn said:

I get it, I can be an extremely opinionated person as well. I even agree with you on Maye vs Daniels. But in this case, I don’t think such certainty is healthy or rational. We’ve all completely whiffed and been loud wrong on QB prospects in recent years, including you. 

My friend, the healthy and rational choice was to cut bait on this franchise a long time ago.  And even if our team was good and not terrible, what we've been doing here for the past 20 years is participating in the dude version of fangirl chat boards for Ru Paul's Drag Race.  It's fundamentally irrational and unhealthy.

What's the response going to be from everyone if we draft Jayden and he ends up being the next Justin Fields, and Drake Maye ends up being the next Josh Allen?

Just now, HTTRDynasty said:

I hope I'm wrong, but this "group outing" seems like such a transparent attempt to see who emerges as the "leader" or "alpha" of the group.  Pretty cringeworthy, IMO, if that's the case.

I don't know what's going on, but I wouldn't read to much into this scheduling crunch.  It could be nothing more than having to work around the schedules of the players themselves.  They are traveling all over to meet with teams right now.

4 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Admittedly, his deep ball is excellent with really good placement,

I don't think it is.  I think the placement on his deep ball is erratic, and it's not so much the overthrows, it's the leaving it inside and short so often that worry me.  So many plays where Brian Thomas had to hold up waiting on the ball or run back toward the field to track the ball.  Those are turnover throws in NFL zones.  So are the floating ducks he throws to the far hash flat.  So are the plays where he takes to long to pull the trigger on crossers and puts it behind.  And so are the plays when he rolls into an occupied flat and has to pick his eyes back up and look for options down field after losing his picture, and nothing is open down the sideline for him.