7) But if the proportional swing is large, or the pre-existing pro-Dem lean small, these shifts can translate into big vote swings to Trump.

That’s what happened in Orange County CA, where majority-Asian precincts swung to Trump by >30pts and delivered him a net 10,000 vote gain pic.twitter.com/VATJOliD4B

— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) November 16, 2020