3) e.g:
— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) November 16, 2020
If black voters went 94% D vs 5% R in 2016, then 93D vs 6R in 2020, that’s a 2pt shift to Trump
But if turnout rose by 3%, the margin in *number of votes* actually goes more blue, because the ⬆️ in votes cast *among a very D demographic* offsets switching from D to R