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Scot McCloughan and the 2016 Offseason: Are we Right to be Concerned?


thesubmittedone

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Welp, we've made it. 
 
       The regular season is finally upon us and we've just entered the first game week, so naturally we fans are feeling the nerves kick in and are ready to start freaking out, jump off ledges, and kill each other and everyone around us.  
 
 
      Now, I can understand people's concerns about this offseason, but I think they're missing the forest for the trees. I sincerely believe those who are frustrated about things, to the point of calling this offseason a failure (or even perceiving it as Scot not doing enough this go around), were assuming we were one or two position groups being solidified away from being a Super Bowl contender. 
 
     Yet, Scot has repeatedly stated we need about 10 more "reds" (eg solid players) to be "there", and that was even after this year's draft. Some of us, on either side of this debate, are assuming Scot doesn't think Dline or RB is a weakness, but that's a faulty assumption. That's simply a misunderstanding about how BPA really works, and not just regarding the draft but in an organizational approach to personnel altogether. 
 
 
1) It just wasn't a very good draft or,

2) Our depth has gotten a lot better and we can't afford to just hold on to guys because they were draft picks. 
 
     Of course, this is ignoring the fact that two draft picks (Steven Daniels and Keith Marshall) went on IR, and if you're simply writing them off this guy might have something to say about it:
 
26_4608065.jpg
 
    So, here's the thing. There are signs all over the place showing us that this is the right way of doing things. Maybe none more evident than the team keeping someone like Lanier on the roster, which says a lot more than what it seems to on the surface.
 
     Remember, I've been big on Lanier since the first preseason game, as well as the ones after that. Few are bigger fans of his:
 
 
     But, if I'm being honest here, he's nowhere near ready to be anything other than maaaaybe a situational pass rusher on the line. Which is why I felt he would likely get cut and placed on the Practice Squad. Even posted about this very thing a few days ago. I, like many others, assumed we needed bodies on the Dline that could contribute immediately and was expecting Jenkins to make the team over him. 
 
    However, what he IS, is young and full of potential, thus making him the BPA over others who may have been safer or more short-term fixes. That's great and indicates a focus on the long term outlook of the team, even if it's at the expense of the present. Maybe we would've been stronger at Dline right now with someone else, but is our organization better off in the future? 
 
    They could've kept Jenkins on the Dline or kept Mack Brown on the roster, but instead they kept a guy like Lanier who needs time to develop but is filled with promise. Another example? They could've kept Ioannidis on the roster simply because it's an area of concern and he's a draft pick, but then a guy like Everett - who is the better player and a young guy as well - is likely to get cut. 
Even though he plays at a position of strength, we kept him.
 
      This is what BPA is all about. This is how you build a strong roster that can consistently contend over time. You take the better player over perceived need. You go into the season with only 6 Dlinemen and 3 RBs because others playing different positions were better. It's as simple as that. 
 
    It's the correct approach. Yes, you're going to have clear weak areas and it might cost you games, but then you're going to have clear strengths because there's less of a chance at missing on guys or having guys go elsewhere and be successful because they can actually play - which should win you games. Aside from the obvious benefit to our depth (shouldn't we, for instance, feel good about Safety for the first time in years with DHall, Bruton, Blackmon, Ihenacho and Everett there?), you get the added bonus of eventually being so rich at one or two positions you can swing trades. 
 
    Oh, and, guess what? We got a boatload of draft picks we're starting to stockpile to do just that, as well. To get that we gave up an entire round this year. Again, short term loss for long term gain. 
 
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McCloughan on trading draft 2015 draft picks: “A lot of people don’t want to do it because it’s not immediate impact. 'Well, that’s next year. What about this year?’ Coaches want this year, which I understand completely. But what it gives me the opportunity to do is not just worry about next year’s draft and trading up and that kind of stuff, but this offseason and during the season trading. We’ve got multiple picks now.”

 

    Although it didn't work out in the end, we've already seen the truth of this statement in action with the Stork trade. Moving back from the ledge, yet?

    Eventually, those weak areas will naturally be addressed just by the law of averages. It's extremely unlikely that things will fall, two off seasons in a row, where BPA in the draft isn't at those weak positions or guys in Free Agency are way too overpriced to address it there. 
 
     But it requires patience. We need to go back and see what Scot's said all offseason. Like here: 
 
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On not addressing the defensive line until the fifth round:

 

“I was looking. Again, it’s best player [available]. It’s 53 guys. In my personal opinion, if you draft for need, that’s when you get in trouble because all of the sudden you’re like, ‘Son of a gun, we had these three guys higher and they’re going to the Pro Bowl, but we forced the issue to take that guy.’ I wanted to address it early. I wanted to address it [in the] first five picks, but again, I’m taking the best football player. I have to. For me to do my job and make this organization as strong as it can be, I’ve got to take the best football players.”

 

 

On comparing the defensive line depth in the draft class to the depth on the roster:

 

“Yeah, you can say that, but looking at the depth and looking at the names and that stuff, but you know what, we still have good football players on the defensive line. We’ve got a lot of good football players on the defensive line. I would have loved to add a younger guy – younger guys – but it didn’t work that way. Like I said, we went into it and if you had told me the night before I’m taking a receiver in the first round, I would have laughed at you and said you’re crazy. But he was the best player. I don’t want to force the issue, but I understand where our depth is at. I understand who can and can’t play. We’re OK upfront. We’re OK.”

     
    To think we're all on top of these weaknesses and he's just missing the boat here in terms of addressing them is laughable, and I'm not someone who won't criticize him if necessary. Heck, I'm still concerned about his past/family issues while most consider it a nonissue. 
 
     He could've went all out and addressed every area of concern on the roster, but then we'd have likely reached in the draft for a lesser talent and/or overspent in FA. Look at what the Giants paid average players to fix their Dline this offseason. Do we then miss out on Norman when he unexpectedly became available? Ryan 
Kelly, the center out of Alabama, was taken a few picks earlier than ours in the first round. If we wanted him, it would've cost us significant draft resources to move up ahead of Indy. What players are lost in the process, then, and can we afford to give them up for one Center?
 
     That is what an anxious, impulsive man does when running an organization. That is the exact problem we've seen for so long from Dan and Vinny. It is the very essence of the fan-fueled, emotional "quick fix" philosophy that has been absolutely devastating to the organization. I'm not being lazy here and talking about the age old criticism of Dan trying to "buy" a championship... I'm talking about the obsession of attacking every weak area during the offseason while assuming everything else will remain as is. 
 
     I mean, come on, we as Redskins fans should know better at this point. How often did we have an offseason where it seemed like we totally addressed all the areas of weakness/concern, assuming our previous strengths will remain as such, only to find out we reached/overspent on those players we thought would solve things while suddenly and unexpectedly watching our assumed strengths become gaping holes in the process?
 
    Then what does the team do the following offseason? Rinse and repeat. 
 
     We've seen it a million times, haven't we? And in all our desperation to immediately become a contender, we set ourselves back because we had a roster filled with those misses who not only played poorly, but also cost us valuable development time for better players. Or we just cut those better players altogether. 
 
     This is the difference in philosophy that has us keeping guys like Lanier and Everett on the roster. 
 
     As of now, and due to our current philosophy, we may have three elite positions on the team at QB, WR and DB. And that doesn't look like it'll change anytime soon. You can't ignore the fact that not addressing other spots or perceived areas of weakness has allowed us that. 
 
    Calling this bad in any way is simply ridiculous to me, and I think it just comes from the nervousness occurring within us as the season approaches and knowing we've got some weak spots at key areas. If we can't see past the 2016 season, well, we don't have a solid grasp of where this roster is at. Fortunately, for the first time in forever we've got some adults in charge who do. 
 
     I'm sorry to sound a little harsh here, but get used to the fact that we might be further from an elite team than we'd like to think as fans (naturally), and that our way of thinking could easily set us back from getting there sooner. 
 
     Now, that doesn't mean we have to ignore any bad move that's made or assume Scot and the FO have been perfect and have had everything go as planned. I'd bet, if they were being honest, they'd admit they were wrong in this or that case; and/or didn't see this or that coming; and/or thought the draft would fall like this instead of that... but that also doesn't mean they did poorly, or that things suddenly aren't going in the right direction and we took a step back. Actually, no need to bet on it: 
 
Quote

On sticking to his decision making process:

 

“At a time when your roster is really strong and you’re a really good team, then you can start worrying about things on the back end. Right now, we’re going forward. We’re taking the best player and throwing them in there. We’re not always going to be 100 percent accurate. It’s not an exact science, but we’re going to keep going and going and keep adding players.”

 

     Not to sound all preachy, but we should be happy and satisfied that we've got a group of guys in charge who have a plan; can adjust in the right way (and not panic) when things don't go accordingly; and are properly assessing the roster's state, therefore avoiding the wishful, faulty, thinking that causes teams to give up too much of their future while assuming they're close enough to contend. 

 
     I know this may be too much to ask but can we, as fans, take their lead and be as patient as them when/if we lose this season? 
 
      Because, as hard as it will be at the time, it'll be the right thing to do. No homer, just the truth. :) 
 
 
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That's a nice way of saying "is what it is with the D-Line, Front Office knows its going to be a weakness again".  

 

I'm not even mad about it, because I like BPA plan as well after seeing it up close for two years straight now.  I guess the question is, will we need to win a championship to move more towards a balance of BPA/need as hinted in one of the last GMSM quotes? Reach NFCCG?  Win a playoff game?  

 

We won the division, but I reserve the right to feel a sort of way if we ignore Center and D-line again next offseason as well. 

Edited by Renegade7
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I'll wait until we screw up to tell everyone I was right all along...

 

In all seriousness, you can't fix everything in one off-season. The pass rush was supposed to blethal, but no one saw Galette tearing his other Achilles. What you like, is that we are better equipped more than ever, to withstand the freakish, devastating injuries that in years past would cripple us.

Preston Smith has all the makings of a future multi-pro bowler, and though our pass rush was weakened, I still thi k those guys can hold up their end of the bargain.

I have my reservations about the running g game and how that was handled this off-season, but again, no one saw Jones going down in a heap after like 5 carries (okay, maybe some did:) ), but fortunately, the Skins have a guy in Kelley who appears to be adequate running the ball, and good at blitz pickup. Plus our strength is the passing game, for now. Running the ball will be a changeup more than anything else.

 

I wouldn't be shocked if some were concerned, but all things considered, I think we are in a good place.

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That was a really good read TSO. Thanks  . 

 

I think people are all to keen to point out the perceived problems . I can imagine them being real problems too but I take the wait and see approach .

 

I do think the  issues against the run were not just down to the guys on the line.

 

Not having street free agents converted wide receivers etc playing in the secondary is going to help the scheme . 

But people like I panic 

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My gut feeling is a lot of folks are going to be surprised about how the D line does this year.  Another OTA's, training camp and preseason learning the system better.  A lot of problems last year could be attributed to lack of communication, in the secondary and safeties.  The QB didn't have to hesitate long because someone was always coming open.  Right now it looks like the secondary is fixed, the linebackers are more experienced in the system and that will help with the run defense.  Last year it seemed like Dline players were going down every week and someone else was plugged in to replace them.  With luck that won't happen as often this year. Our run defense was good the first couple of games last year then the injuries began to mount. Every year it takes a bit of luck, look at the Cowboys all set to go to the Superbowl (per ESPN) then Tony Romo goes kaboom. Rookie QB on deck.

This year I promise I'm going to sit back and enjoy the games, I'm NOT going to throw my shoe thru the 60" Dual processor TV like last year.  I'm NOT going to scream and pull my hair out, That bald spot is self made.  I'm going to be calm and collected even if the #&$^ Dline sucks. Honest.

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Scot knocked it out of the park last year, no doubt.  Maybe we should realize that not every draft class is going to be as good/productive as 2015.  

Scherff, Preston Smith, Matt Jones, Crowder, Kouandijo, Spaight, Jarrett, Tevin Mitchell, Evan Spencer and Austin Reiter.

That's pretty damn good.  A starting offensive lineman who looks like he could be a stalwart, a beast LB who was in double digit sacks, an arguable 1st string running back, a rookie WR who set the rookie pass catching record for us....Kouandijo has been looked at as someone who could be a contributor, Spaight looks like he's going to pay big dividends this year and Jarrett contributed largely last year, probably would have made the team this year if it wasn't for the injury.

It's not always going to be that good.  From that list, I count 5 guys that could be long term significant contributors to this team and if you wanted to count Jarrett it could have been six.   And I'm not even counting Kouandijo.  

I think part of the reason people may be disgruntled is because Scot set the bar so high in year one.  

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Awesome blog.  Pretty much said everything that needed to be said.  I'm not so sure how our fanbase got so impatient or expected a SB contender in 2 years.  He's building us for the long haul, not just a one and done. 

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Not going to lie... The title of this entry shocked me. Concern is such a strong word. I didn't realize that a good chunk of draft picks didn't make the team until I heard it on the radio this morning and I'll go with option two that it's a result of added depth. A couple of years ago, we wouldn't have been able to say that.

I like the way the team is shaping up. Yeah, we have some weak areas, but no team is perfect. I have no concerns with this team as of now.

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One thing not mentioned is the value of compensatory picks. In a nutshell, if you lose more than you gain in free agency, you tend to get extra draft picks. 

SM's approach of signing modest free agents and drafting at positions for the future (WR, CB, QB this time) will eventually pay off in the form of extra draft picks by allowing expensive free agents to depart. Alas, Norman's signing undermined that a bit this year, but this is a small added benefit to valuing extra draft picks and then drafting BPA. Those BPAs will eventually be replacing guys that will be signed by other teams.

SM's still catching this roster up to the league in many ways, but with this strategy we'll eventually get ahead of the league in terms of assets, similar to how the Patriots have built. That will result in a younger, more athletic and generally more healthy roster than the aging ones that FA produces. 

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11 hours ago, MLSKINS said:

Not going to lie... The title of this entry shocked me. Concern is such a strong word. I didn't realize that a good chunk of draft picks didn't make the team until I heard it on the radio this morning and I'll go with option two that it's a result of added depth. A couple of years ago, we wouldn't have been able to say that.

I like the way the team is shaping up. Yeah, we have some weak areas, but no team is perfect. I have no concerns with this team as of now.

 

The title was more or less based off of the arguments that were going on in The Stadium (and mainly in the roster thread) about whether or not Scot did a good job this offseason. 

Suffice to say, there was a bit of frustration and panic mounting over some of the moves made this offseason and perceived weaknesses on the roster.

Hence, this blog entry. You could see my answer to the question was clearly "not really", lol.  :)  

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Nice write up TSO. I do have some concerns with the DLine and RBs, but don't think that anyone's to blame for the apparent weaknesses.
I like the BPA approach and can see that eventually it should even out and all positions will get addressed.

With that said, I'll still **** about it if we constantly get gashed up the middle and only manage a couple of yards a carry ourselves, I mean WTF was SM thinking!?!?! :)

On a side note, I followed the link to one of your interviews but didn't download it. I realise that you're not offering me a job that can earn $$$$$ a week working from home, or a Somali Prince who wants to transfer £10M into my account but I've kinda been programmed over the years into not clicking scary looking "Download This File" type buttons, especially when I don't know what the file type is.
I noticed the small number of downloads, so maybe others feel the same. Is there another way of accessing them or give a bit more info? 

I hope this comes across as trying to be helpful, rather than trying to be a smart-arse.

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51 minutes ago, thesubmittedone said:

 

The title was more or less based off of the arguments that we're going on in The Stadium (and mainly in the roster thread) about whether or not Scot did a good job this offseason. 

Suffice to say, there was a bit of frustration and panic mounting over some of the moves made this offseason and perceived weaknesses on the roster.

Hence, this blog entry. You could see my answer to the question was clearly "not really", lol.  :)  

That's just good writing to me. It really caught my eye.

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44 minutes ago, London Kev said:

Nice write up TSO. I do have some concerns with the DLine and RBs, but don't think that anyone's to blame for the apparent weaknesses.
I like the BPA approach and can see that eventually it should even out and all positions will get addressed.

With that said, I'll still **** about it if we constantly get gashed up the middle and only manage a couple of yards a carry ourselves, I mean WTF was SM thinking!?!?! :)

On a side note, I followed the link to one of your interviews but didn't download it. I realise that you're not offering me a job that can earn $$$$$ a week working from home, or a Somali Prince who wants to transfer £10M into my account but I've kinda been programmed over the years into not clicking scary looking "Download This File" type buttons, especially when I don't know what the file type is.
I noticed the small number of downloads, so maybe others feel the same. Is there another way of accessing them or give a bit more info? 

I hope this comes across as trying to be helpful, rather than trying to be a smart-arse.

 

Yeah, unfortunately it's the only way right now. We wanted to be able to embed the audio into the posts themselves so it can automatically play there but the board software doesn't allow for it. :/ 

All I can do is assure you, we've tested it a million times and everything downloads just fine. There's never been any issues with the files, they're just standard audio format. :) 

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10 minutes ago, thesubmittedone said:

 

Yeah, unfortunately it's the only way right now. We wanted to be able to embed the audio into the posts themselves so it can automatically play there but the board software doesn't allow for it. :/ 

All I can do is assure you, we've tested it a million times and everything downloads just fine. There's never been any issues with the files, they're just standard audio format. :) 

OK, I trust you man. And if you do want to deposit £10 mill, my account number is 4302.........:)

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I'd summarize the naysayers on this point as:  

A. How come the running game and D line hasn't been fixed?   

My general response to this is:  1.  Some are assuming failure at these positions but lets see it play out before crying wolf.  2. I never expected for all weaknesses to be fixed overnight -- what is there maybe 3-5 teams in the league without a glaring weakness, if that?  We will get there, give him another off season or two.  It took about 3 in Seattle. 

B.  Scot is supposed to be this genius but see point A above and look at this FA signing who failed and this draft pick.  The dude isn't flawless or above reproach.  

 

My response:  Scot has done well so far in the draft.  Yeah he isn't the first GM in history to strike gold with EVERY pick.  There have been studies on this posted in the draft thread -- if I recall on average it was 90% of 5th rounders aren't successes in this league, and we are giving him a hard time for Ioannidis starting on the practice squad? 

The IR guys aren't busts -- they are open ended questions. Look at Spaight.  To some it looked like a missed pick last year, now you have some saying he was one of the top 5 players in camp.   And we all know hardly any 7th rounders make it in this league.  But to play along, if Scot fails with a 7th rounder but then succeeds with a Dunbar, or Lanier, or R. Kelly -- what's the difference?

 As for FA, Scot himself has said free agency isn't the way to build a team and it has many pitfalls.   We can hit him on this guy and that guy -- but he's had some solid hits:  M. Foster, D. Hopkins, Blackmon, Nsekhe, J. Francois -- and some guys looking good so far in training camp: Toler, V. Davis J. Norman, Z. Hood.

But yeah Belichick had plenty of bombs among his successes, ditto R. Wolf, J. Schneider, B. Beathard -- name that GM.    So I don't quite understand the harping on what Scot got wrong?  He got some wrong, he will get things wrong I bet every off season.    But so what?  

He's bringing a philosophy that some are debating which is: A.  do we go BPA in the draft?  B.  Is FA a good fix for improving a position both in the short and long term? If the answers to question A. is No and for B. Yes.  I think Scot will have some critics here because he's been very upfront on both of these questions and has been walking his talk.      

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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If you have to ask "Are we right to be concerned" about an NFL team 99.99999% of the time the answer is Yes always. You have to always be concerned no matter what team your talking about

The Seahawks should be concerned they just kept like 16 rookies on there final 53 including Russell Wilsons primary backup.

The Patriots should be concerned Brady's suspended, Jimmy G doesn't look good, Gronks on the cover of madden and that blasted curse.

The Panthers should be concerned they are the reigning Superbowl losing team and history shows those teams the next season almost always suck

The Broncos should be concerned they just wasted 4 years grooming a QB now playing in Houston and they have to start a rookie QB week one

The Cardinals should be concerned Carson Palmer looked awful in preseason and he's 36 years old the age when QB's usually fall off the cliff

My point is you can make a case for every single team in this league having reason, justifiable reason to be concerned about the state of that team. Us included.

My biggest issue this off season has been how we've treated our RB situation. Keith Marshall when he was drafted I clearly said on this forum I believed would be a wasted pick, or a worthless pick. People here got excited about his speed, his pedigree, his high school rankings even. I said then don't believe this nonsense, teams all have the same scouting information and if they saw his 40 yard time and wouldn't draft him there are huge red flags about this kid and what happened? He's on IR now and won't help us just like I predicted. I was pissed we didn't address this in the draft or in free agency.

I complained that putting all our eggs in the Matt Jones basket this year was irresponsible. Matt Jones yards per carry last season was a terrible 3.3, horrible. He was also showing clear signs he was injury prone making a viable backup a top priority and was upset Alfred Morris walked away for such little money. And what's happened? Matt Jones didn't look good in preseason (not one but two undrafted rookies outplayed him) and got hurt again. What did Morris do? Only look the part of a capable efficient RB now on the freaking Cowboys (added insult to this situation).

Thing is even with me being right and complaining this off season none of that matters. Not one bit. What matters is what happens for us going forward. I hope like hell I am proven wrong about our RB situation but honestly in all of my years watching football and studying it I have a hell of a hard time remembering ever seeing any team let alone this team in the last 40 years ignore completely this aspect of a team like this. It's very odd what we did here.

I hope I'm dead wrong, I hope that Matt Jones shows us all why the coaches had faith in him and makes me look like an idiot for voicing my concern about this aspect of the team but I am concerned and like those other teams only time will tell for us all if we should be concerned or not. Talking is thankfully almost over. Its almost Game Time! HTTR

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2 hours ago, London Kev said:

OK, I trust you man. And if you do want to deposit £10 mill, my account number is 4302.........:)

 

I am a Prince from Nigeria that just recently came into an estate worth $5 million... 

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@bobandweave Bro, you need to calm

down a little bit. Don't know if you meant it, but your post came off like you're raging. :unsure:

Of course we're all understandably concerned. That's what this entry was about, that the concerns or perceived weaknesses might be true, but not necessarily because they were making poor decisions or handling them incorrectly. 

When you have a BPA philosophy and are acting with organizational restraint (which is the right way to go about things) you WILL end up with areas of concern. Championship teams almost always have weak spots (not saying we are one). 

And, please, relax with the "I was right" stuff, brother. First off, you're basing everything off of preseason play when we've seen time and again that taking it at face value is foolish.

Secondly, claiming Matt Jones didn't look good or was outplayed by two rookies is simply false. He looked good overall against the Jets (the only time he got more than a couple carries) and showed improvement in vision/decisiveness and keeping his pads low while falling forward. If you're going to focus on the handoff gaffe then go ahead, but that is on McCoy as much as it's on him. The only real negative is that he got hurt, but that's not what you focused on here. I would've given you that. 

Third, Keith Marshall was a seventh round pick. Claiming you were right for thinking he was a wasted pick is some real pretentious crap, to be blunt. I mean, great job calling a 7th rounder as likely to be cut, wow, who would've thunk such a thing!? Preposterous! :P 

Those are picks where you take fliers on guys. He's the perfect flier, and is still on the team. Let's give a 7th rounder a little more time before going off about it, or claiming you were on to something because some around here had high hopes for him. Come on, you're better than that. 

Finally, this is the right way to address the RB position in the modern day NFL. These guys take a pounding and have the shortest career-spans. Furthermore, it's usually the easiest position to learn on offense. So, by default, it's a plug and play spot where you need to rely on a constant influx of young talent there.

After years of hearing Redskins fans complain about how the organization has spent way too much in the way of resources on that position while smart organizations (like the Pats) just plug and play young guys for the most part, I'm surprised at how many are flipping out about it now. Honestly thought we were smarter than that, I don't mean to sound like an ahole when I say that. I've been legitimately surprised by it. 

So, yeah, I refuse to look at this offseason and think anything but "good job, Scot and Jay, keep it going fellas". I agree with the philosophy and organizational principles these guys are using in their approach. I can see it for what it is and understand there's a method behind it, so while I acknowledge that we've got some weak spots and it's unfortunate, I'm not overly concerned because of that. 

Does that make more sense? :) 

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