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Welcome to the Washington Redskins Derrius Guice RB LSU

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19 hours ago, XxSpearheadxX said:

I hope, but am sure I am right, that Clinton Portis mentors this young man. 

As long as it's not about anything financial. 

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49 minutes ago, redskinss said:

As long as it's not about anything financial. 

 

Or about whether it is a good idea to put a stripper pole in your house.

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59 minutes ago, redskinss said:

As long as it's not about anything financial. 

Actually that is exactly the type of thing I meant. Not in the do as I did way though... 

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21 minutes ago, XxSpearheadxX said:

Actually that is exactly the type of thing I meant. Not in the do as I did way though... 

Yeah it's always good to have people teach you from their mistakes and as long as Portis has fully learned his lesson then I could see that being valuable assistance. But from the reports Portis didn't just get taken for a ride by the people that were supposed to be helping him he was also extremely careless with money and I'm not sure he's far enough out from that lifestyle that I'd want him being a mentor about it. 

I certainly could be wrong its just a hunch. 

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This guys motor does not stop, he just talks and talks and talks. Joking aside, he’s pretty articulate. Did not know that about him. I hope he succeeds.

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https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/17/17247560/derrius-guice-saquon-barkley-2018-nfl-draft

 

Why Derrius Guice might be the safest running back to pick in the 2018 NFL Draft

2

There’s a lot of hype around Saquon Barkley, but advanced stats tell us Derrius Guice might be the safest pick at the position.

The biggest name of the 2018 NFL Draft among running backs is Saquon Barkley, and for good reason. He’s a talented back who stole the show at the NFL Combine with his freakish athleticism. But he might not be the safest pick at the position.

That’s not to say Barkley won’t be the NFL’s next dominant back. If we’re going strictly by the eye test, he’s an easy pick, and will be a good one regardless. But SB Nation’s Bill Connelly took a look at a new approach to evaluating running backs, that shows drafting a running back early may not be the best, and that Derrius Guice might actually be the safest pick at the position.

Here are the reasons why.

The value of running backs are similar, no matter the round.

This handy chart that Connelly gives us shows that running back draftees with at least 100 career carries aren’t all that different in the first round than they are through the sixth round.

RB draftees (2010-17) with at least 100 career carries:

Round RBs Total carries (first 4 years) Marginal efficiency Marginal explosiveness
1 12 6332 -6.4% -0.20
2 18 6953 -5.5% -0.25
3 14 4711 -6.2% -0.16
4 18 4626 -5.8% -0.30
5 13 3327 -6.1% -0.21
6 12 4288 -6.8% -0.20
7 3 580 -9.8% -0.24

Another big piece of this, is college stats can help define what a player’s pro ceiling is, because of efficiency. In their first NFL season, players don’t match it, but can come close to it, as these stats of 66 running backs from 2010-17 show:

 

RB_marginal_eff_examples.png

Nine of the 66 came within three percentage points of their college efficiency levels.

So what makes Guice the safe pick?

 

Guice has the third highest efficiency according to Connelly’s stats below, with Barkley’s being near the bottom, despite great explosiveness. However, Guice was also on the top half of explosiveness.

 

 

rb_prospects.png

 

 

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@Skinsinparadise

 

Great post. I'm adding the descriptions of "marginal efficiency" and "explosiveness" and how they are calculated below since these terms are important to understanding the numbers in the parts of the article you posted:

 

Marginal Efficiency: the difference between a player’s success rate* (passing, rushing, or receiving) or success rate allowed (for an individual defender) and the expected success rate of each play based on down, distance, and yard line.

Marginal Explosiveness: the difference between a player’s IsoPPP** (passing, rushing, or receiving) or IsoPPP allowed (for an individual defender) and the expected IsoPPP value of each play based on down, distance, and yard line.

For offensive players, the larger the positive value, the better.

* Success rate: a common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.

** IsoPPP: the average equivalent point value of successful plays only.

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7 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

 

Certainly ended up helping us out though. We got a 1st round talent at the bottom of the 2nd. Getting Guice where we got him was a ludicrous steal.

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Posted (edited)

My guess is Guice’s ex-agent, fired during the draft process, leaked bull**** to the media, which they happily ate up and reported without any care to fact check.

 

The media reports scared some teams, particularly when combined with Guice’s background (which Guice had no control over). Guice has never come close to getting into trouble off the field.

 

Teams also punished Guice for misunderstanding a question and implying he was asked inappropriate questions at the combine.

 

It’s despicable and also not surprising. But we benefited enormously.

 

Guice’s huge personality and productivity should make him not only a star on our team but one of the NFL’s most marketable players. I think he will be the rookie of the year.

 

Here is a nice breakdown from walterfootball.

http://walterfootball.com/ws2018dguice.php

Edited by seantaylor=god
Added link
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Posted (edited)
48 minutes ago, seantaylor=god said:

 

Guice’s huge personality and productivity should make him not only a star on our team but one of the NFL’s most marketable players. I think he will be the rookie of the year.

 

Here is a nice breakdown from walterfootball.

http://walterfootball.com/ws2018dguice.php

 

It should be fun to watch him versus Barkley.  The media has crowned Barkley to no end as if the sun rises and sets with the dude.  His jerseys are ponied up on NFL.com in every color and form almost like the RG3 days here. 

 

While they don't even have Guice's jersey up there yet as to having the 29 number at least the last I checked.  

Hyperbole to make a point but you seem to get the vibe that Barkley supposedly is the savior taking the Giants straight to the Superbowl. 

 

I thought it was hilarious when draft geek Jon Ledyard talked up Guice as the best back in the draft and he was hounded by Giant fans on twitter saying no, no, no, no, no you must have meant Barkley you made a mistake.   And he goes, nope, no mistake.

 

Don't get me wrong, Barkley is a stud.  But I am really starting to get into the tit for tat comparisons this coming season.  Barkley's personality is boring.  At least from when I've seen Barkley interviewed -- the dude has no charisma.   Guice is anything but boring.    I think they are both studs.  Barkley to me is a souped up and better Chris Thompson -- passing weapon, running weapon -- heck he can return kicks.  But IMO if Guice is back to 2016 form, I agree with Daniel Jeremiah among others that he's in the same conversation with Barkley.  Will see. 


 

 

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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Posted (edited)

Guice faced an 8 man box 32% of the time, Barkley faced an 8 man box 8% of the time. This doesn't mean that Barkley won't be really good, or that Guice is necessarily better than him, but I think it means we can expect him to be really good quickly. At least a good chance of it. He knows how to run in a pro style offense and against stacked boxes. Imagine how well he could do when not facing that.

 

Also, over the last 3 years Barkley ran the ball 200 times more than Guice for a smidge less than 800 yards more. If you gave Guice 200 more carries over the time with his lowest average per attempt he would have over an extra 1000 yards at least. I am very excited about Guice.

Edited by MisterPinstripe
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10 minutes ago, MisterPinstripe said:

Guice faced an 8 man box 32% of the time, Barkley faced an 8 man box 8% of the time. This doesn't mean that Barkley won't be really good, or that Guice is necessarily better than him, but I think it means we can expect him to be really good quickly. At least a good chance of it. He knows how to run in a pro style offense and against stacked boxes. Imagine how well he could do when not facing that.

 

Also, over the last 3 years Barkley ran the ball 200 times more than Guice for a smidge less than 800 yards more. If you gave Guice 200 more carries over the time with his lowest average per attempt he would have over an extra 1000 yards at least. I am very excited about Guice.

 

Here is the article to back some of those stats up:

 

No. 1 - Saquon Barkley, Penn State

(Games charted - Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa, Washington, Pittsburgh, Georgia State, Nebraska, Rutgers)

Average number of defenders in the box- 6.29

Average number of blockers in the box - 5.78

Before we begin, let’s make one thing abundantly clear: Saquon Barkley is the best running back in the 2018 draft class. He is one of the best overall talents the position has seen in years. However, that does not mean his game is without flaws. Charting his 2017 season showed that there are some reasons to be concerned about him going forward.

Of the five running backs that were charted, Barkley saw the least number of defenders in the box on average. He saw six or fewer defenders in the box on nearly 69 percent of his runs. That’s not something that is likely to translate to the NFL, especially if he is drafted to be the focal point of a team’s offense.

 

A big reason as to why he saw so many light boxes was due to the fact that more than 81 percent of his runs came out of 10 or 11 personnel, as it forced defenses to be in nickel or dime. This isn’t to criticize Barkley or Penn State, because rushing out of 10 and 11 personnel should be the norm in both college and in the NFL. And to Barkley’s credit, he dominated teams out of 10 and 11 personnel, averaging an insane 6.2 yards per carry. But when he was asked to run out of any other type of personnel grouping, Barkley's yards per carry dropped all the way down to 3.01 yards per rush.

 

Due to the amount of time Barkley ran out of 10 and 11 personnel, he rarely faced loaded boxes at the collegiate level. Of his 151 charted runs, Barkley faced eight or more men in the box just six times, averaging two yards per carry. Even against seven-man fronts, Barkley averaged just 4.6 yards per carry on 41 carries, but those numbers are somewhat skewed due to one 65-yard run. Barkley lost yardage on nearly 22 percent of his runs when facing seven defenders in the box. His offensive line deserves quite a bit of the blame, but he isn’t faultless either, as he often bounced runs outside for losses that should have produced moderate gains. Running against loaded boxes just wasn’t something Barkley did well last season, and it’s fair to wonder if that will be a weakness of his entering the NFL.

 

Barkley isn’t going to be a player that you are going to want to play smash-mouth football with. He’s a high-variance runner who might lead the league in negative runs (more than 16 percent of his runs over the last two years lost yardage). However, he is a threat to score anywhere from the field from any formation.

 

If Barkley can find himself in a spread offense with a good quarterback, he would be a threat to put up 2,000 yards from scrimmage in his rookie season. However, if he is miscast as a work-horse back who is forced to carry the ball 20 times against crowded boxes (such as what Leonard Fournette was asked to do in Jacksonville last season), he may disappoint early.

 

No. 2 - Derrius Guice, LSU

(Games charted - Alabama, Arkansas, Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Missouri, Florida)

Average number of defenders in the box - 7.25

Average number of blockers in the box - 7.10

Of the five running backs charted, LSU’s Derrius Guice saw, on average, the most defenders in the box as well as the most blockers in the box. Defenses loaded up to stop Guice, as he was the team’s best weapon and needed to be accounted for on every snap. However, LSU also played a part in creating stacked boxes for Guice, as he rarely ran out of 10 and 11 personnel. Guice played in what we would call a traditional “NFL-offense,” as LSU used a ton of 12 and 21 personnel to run the ball.

While running out of more traditional boxes may have hurt Guice’s college statistics, it prepared him more for what he is going to see in the NFL. Guice saw eight defenders in the box on nearly 24 percent of his carries, averaging more than 6.75 yards per carry. He saw eight or more defenders in the box on a staggering 31.8 percent of his total rushes, by far the most of the top backs in this class.

 

The most impressive stats for Guice come when you compare the number of defenders in the box versus the number of blockers in the box. When Guice saw an even box (same number of blockers as defenders) in 2017, he averaged an incredible 8.4 yards per rush on 75 carries. Assuming Guice can find himself on a team that runs a ton of inside zone out of 12 or 21 personnel, he should thrive in the NFL against six- and seven-man boxes.

 

Guice isn’t the receiver that Saquon Barkley is, nor is he the pass protector, but as a pure runner, you can make the case that his skill set is better suited for the NFL game. He is more likely to be a consistent runner at the next level, as he rarely loses yardage despite the extra defenders in the box.

 

http://www.profootballweekly.com/2018/02/14/pfw-nfl-draft-newsletter-sample-mosher-charts-the-top-rbs/a6fjmrs/#//

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I have a feeling Guice will do for the offense what Jonathan Allen did for the defense before he got injured.  Alex Smith and the O-line are gonna love this guy!!!  

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You know, when he was on the Red Carpet on draft night, I thought, man the Redskins need this guy. Saw his bio and was really impressed. So happy he's on our team!

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11 hours ago, MisterPinstripe said:

Guice faced an 8 man box 32% of the time, Barkley faced an 8 man box 8% of the time. This doesn't mean that Barkley won't be really good, or that Guice is necessarily better than him, but I think it means we can expect him to be really good quickly. At least a good chance of it. He knows how to run in a pro style offense and against stacked boxes. Imagine how well he could do when not facing that.

 

Also, over the last 3 years Barkley ran the ball 200 times more than Guice for a smidge less than 800 yards more. If you gave Guice 200 more carries over the time with his lowest average per attempt he would have over an extra 1000 yards at least. I am very excited about Guice.

Man those are hell of a difference in stat numbers,thx for digging those up!!

With out a doubt,both backs are studs at their positions but I think Guice is going to be the bigger impact player-not just because he is on our team but he adds so much more that we’ve needed for so a lot of years..I can’t wait to watch him run with Trent pulling and clearing a path for him,since both players can pancake a defender and that’s gonna be so fun to watch!!

Seeing Guice highlights(and I know it was only a punter)where the kicker is the last man to beat and how he drops his shoulders and levels the guy is awesome!!..D-Backs are gonna think twice bout Guice before they step in front of him coming downhill,I know I would!!

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On 5/19/2018 at 12:49 AM, HTTRDynasty said:

 

 

Odd reason to want more picks. Scouts get paid to work, the picks they traded helped the Eagles win a SB. The scouts will get to use their evaluations to move in the business up no matter what the GM does. 

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5 hours ago, volsmet said:

 

Odd reason to want more picks. Scouts get paid to work, the picks they traded helped the Eagles win a SB. The scouts will get to use their evaluations to move in the business up no matter what the GM does. 

 

I agree, that's an odd statement for them to make. We need more draft picks to justify the scouting resources. For me, it would be more critical have more resources with less draft choices as you can less afford to make a mistake. 

 

Philly has changed their story a few times on Guice. The final story I saw was it was a tense meeting at the combine so Guice's agent asked for a meeting in philly which went very well from both sides. Now they say nothing happened at all. Only they and Guice truly know and honestly it doesn't matter at this point. The positive by-product for us is that we have guy who while already very motivated, has a good reason to really want to prove people wrong. I like it and I really like him.

 

Seems like a really good kid who enjoys life but takes football very serious. Contrary to what some people believe, those two things can co-exist. 

 

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The more highlights I watch, the greater my man crush grows.  Hope this kid turns out to be special. 

 

Fantasy team name this year (because I always love to).... Guice, Guice, Baby

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3 hours ago, goskins10 said:

 

I agree, that's an odd statement for them to make. We need more draft picks to justify the scouting resources. For me, it would be more critical have more resources with less draft choices as you can less afford to make a mistake. 

 

Philly has changed their story a few times on Guice. The final story I saw was it was a tense meeting at the combine so Guice's agent asked for a meeting in philly which went very well from both sides. Now they say nothing happened at all. Only they and Guice truly know and honestly it doesn't matter at this point. The positive by-product for us is that we have guy who while already very motivated, has a good reason to really want to prove people wrong. I like it and I really like him.

 

Seems like a really good kid who enjoys life but takes football very serious. Contrary to what some people believe, those two things can co-exist. 

 

 

No! No no no no. There can be no fun and football at the same time. Ever! Anyone who is fun loving and also plays NFL football will fail. 

 

Football is

serious_business_lego.jpg

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The draft night rumours about this guy being trouble just seem more ridiculous as each day passes.  If he has character issues then give me more players with character issues.

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