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Vaya Con Dios, Manny! The plight of the 2018 Orioles


Spaceman Spiff

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5 minutes ago, Bang said:

Wearing black today.

 

These five better pan out. 

 

~Bang

 

Spoiler alert, they won't ALL pan out. If somehow all 5 guys contribute at the ML level at anything over replacement level, then it's likely the best trade of all-time. I mean, Machado is under team control for less than 70 games. 

 

This reminds me of the Cousins situation to an extent (hooray for me having the two sports teams I adore being run by idiots). There were awful decisions made to get to a certain point, but based on where we were the isolated moves were very good. The return we got for two months of Manny was very good. Similarly, the trade we made to acquire and the contract we gave Smith were both very good, despite the fact that we bungled the Cousins situation for 24-30 months leading up to that. 

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I'm fairly happy with the return.  Once the reports were saying that teams weren't willing to part with a top flight prospect like Hiura, Sheffield or Verdugo and the reports on Tuesday and Wednesday said it was going to be a five for one deal I had a feeling this is the type of return we'd get.  

 

There are some things to like, there seems to be 4 good upsides here with the exception of Valera who still could be a useful utility infielder.  

 

IIRC, these guys are all going to AA so we should know here pretty soon how well they're performing.  Barring an Austin Hays turn for the worse, I'd expect Diaz to be in the outfield on opening day, 2019.  I do love the Cuban exports, I am glad we got one.  

 

I liked the announcement that came down from DD yesterday as well.  IMO, that's better than the trade.  We'll see if they stick with it and how well it pans out but hopefully this is a sign of good things to come.  John Angelos doesn't seem to be ****in around and I think we just saw the passing of the torch from the old man to the sons.  

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42 minutes ago, Spaceman Spiff said:

I liked the announcement that came down from DD yesterday as well.  IMO, that's better than the trade.  We'll see if they stick with it and how well it pans out but hopefully this is a sign of good things to come.  John Angelos doesn't seem to be ****in around and I think we just saw the passing of the torch from the old man to the sons.  

 

I hope so .. or it could just be lip service to appease pissed off fans bc of no international signings and essentially trading Manny for a dodgers player they recd through int'l signing.

 

Ill believe it when I see it. I do think it was timed to temper fan disappointment but it could also be true and happen at the same time.

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19 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

The Indians just traded for Hand...I wonder if this will accelerate the Britton talks as teams notice one less reliever on the market. 

 

and got the no 5 overall prospect in baseball. For a reliever, who is under control for the next 3 years, but man ... he seems like a pretty good but not a shut down closer. 

 

This makes me like the Manny trade a little less. We got a guy ranked pre season as 84th best prospect for Manny Machado .... and the Padres got the no. 15 best prospect pre season and current no 5 overall .. for a reliever named Hand with a career high 24 saves so far this season and a 3.00 era. 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Why am I Mr. Pink? said:

 

and got the no 5 overall prospect in baseball. For a reliever, who is under control for the next 3 years, but man ... he seems like a pretty good but not a shut down closer. 

 

This makes me like the Manny trade a little less. We got a guy ranked pre season as 84th best prospect for Manny Machado .... and the Padres got the no. 15 best prospect pre season and current no 5 overall .. for a reliever named Hand with a career high 24 saves so far this season and a 3.00 era. 

 

 

 

Team control is everything man...3 years of a viable closer is an eternity. This is why I was hoping we would sell Manny and Zach before the 2017 season or by the deadline last year at the latest. It's defensible why they didn't (and for a month or two when we started 23-10 I felt stupid for even thinking it), but it would have been the right thing to do to maximize value. 

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1 hour ago, Why am I Mr. Pink? said:

 

and got the no 5 overall prospect in baseball. For a reliever, who is under control for the next 3 years, but man ... he seems like a pretty good but not a shut down closer. 

 

This makes me like the Manny trade a little less. We got a guy ranked pre season as 84th best prospect for Manny Machado .... and the Padres got the no. 15 best prospect pre season and current no 5 overall .. for a reliever named Hand with a career high 24 saves so far this season and a 3.00 era. 

 

 

 

Completely agree.  Full disclosure: I know nothing about Francisco Mejia, or any of the prospects we got from LA.  But Manny was the hottest commodity on the trade market, even if he is a 2 month rental.

 

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Regarding the international market, I understand that the Orioles haven't been players but I don't understand why. Does anyone have the story there? Is it that Angelos didn't think it was necessary? Didn't want to invest in area scouts? Is a bigot? 

 

I am just curious why that pipeline of talent wasn't ever pursued by old Pete. 

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3 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

Regarding the international market, I understand that the Orioles haven't been players but I don't understand why. Does anyone have the story there? Is it that Angelos didn't think it was necessary? Didn't want to invest in area scouts? Is a bigot? 

 

I am just curious why that pipeline of talent wasn't ever pursued by old Pete. 

 

Some teams throw money at 25-30 guys and many never make it to the US. It's a shady world of "Agents"/Buscones/Academy Directors etc. that get chunks of the money while the player can get the shaft.  As a labor attorney, Angelos has essentially washed his hands of this entire process. Not only throwing money at lotto ticket players, but you have to build the infrastructure and scouting that goes along with it. Angelos doesn't want to do it. He believes that MLB should have an American AND international draft process or include international players in the MLB draft. The NBA does it. The NHL does it. The NFL does it, while MLB goes and loots the developing countries of their talent.

 

It's becoming apparent that his sons are willing to push things in the direction of the other MLB teams. 

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Okay, so I know you have all be waiting for my thoughts. ;)

 

First about what DD said last night as it relates to the plan....What in the hell has this organization been doing the last however many years? We've talked here about the some of the obvious deficiencies like the international market and the scouting department, but to see him mention nutrition and wellness as part of the plan to improve is a wow to me. At the very minimum, nutrition and wellness (physical and mental I imagine) should never be underfunded ever on a professional SPORTS team with ATHLETES. I knew things have been bad with the owner but it just takes it to a new level of incompetency that even I couldn't fathom. 

 

As far as the rest of the plan goes, I'll believe it when I see it when it comes to scouting, the international market and roster construction. I do think they sent a pretty clear message to Jones about ever playing here again with the trade and the talk about going young. I hope they don't use it as an excuse not to lock up players worth building around like Schoop. (depending on his salary expectations) It's all fine that they are finally acknowledging these issues, but it becomes meaningless to me if they activate someone like Tillman and don't bring up Mullins and Stewart or a Brandon Kline. Also, the seriousness of this plan must involve what to do with CD/Trumbo. They either need to release CD or trade Trumbo in the off-season so Mancini never plays the OF again. If Mancini is the starting LF next season, everything DD said is just worthless. 

 

I think the trade is pretty solid. A couple of the guys, Bannon and Pop are interesting prospects cause they are still in their first full pro years and have been dominating advanced A ball. So while they started the season ranked in the low 20's on the Dodgers prospect list, guys drafted in the 7th and 8th rounds in the prior year aren't likely to start ranked high. Doesn't mean they weren't going to more up a lot. Plus, I'd rather have young guys dominating their levels than say what the Phillies prospects have been doing that may have been higher ranked in their system. 

 

Anyway, we won't know how this trade works out for a few years, but I can see 2 or 3 of these guys being contributors for the O's and it certainly added more quality depth to the farm system. 

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57 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

Regarding the international market, I understand that the Orioles haven't been players but I don't understand why. Does anyone have the story there? Is it that Angelos didn't think it was necessary? Didn't want to invest in area scouts? Is a bigot? 

 

I am just curious why that pipeline of talent wasn't ever pursued by old Pete. 

 

From reading over at OH ... Angelos thinks the international signing system is corrupt and doesnt want to be a part of it.

 

I think he is just cheap and doesnt want to spend money adding international scouts, infrastructure etc ... he basically goes as cheap as possible on everything except the MLB payroll .. bc if he went cheap on that, to easy a target for fan gripping.

 

Its like we have a nice enough house on the outside but on the inside its rent-a-furniture with no TV no cable and no internet.   

 

edit - before we moved to the "state of the art" spring training facilities in Sarasota, we had the worst spring training facilities in the MLB. We actually had a temporary wedding reception type tent that was the "strength and conditioning" center.

 

I used to have a picture of it but cant find it on the internet anymore.  

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33 minutes ago, Why am I Mr. Pink? said:

edit - before we moved to the "state of the art" spring training facilities in Sarasota, we had the worst spring training facilities in the MLB. We actually had a temporary wedding reception type tent that was the "strength and conditioning" center.

 

You mean rusty weights in a tent is unacceptable for a Major League baseball team?! 

 

Soft. SAWFT. 

 

Of course I'm kidding. 

 

It was Jake Arrieta and his blog that wrote about it and some other choice things.  

 

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3 hours ago, TheDoyler23 said:

This team went to the playoffs 3X in 5 years and can do it again by rebuilding. It sucks that the best shot at a world series was kneecapped by Manny's injury, Weiters' injury and Davis' suspension. 

 

Keep trading. Burn the boats. 

 

Looking back on it, going to the playoffs 3x in 5 years was made easier by the fact that the Sox and Yankees were underperforming.  If the Orioles can do it right, build properly and tap the international market correctly, it will be an absolute dogfight in the AL East for years to come.  Toronto has some good prospects up and coming, too.  Can't count them out.  

 

1 hour ago, RonArtest15 said:

Manny wearing #8 for the Dodgers...

 

Buying his jersey real soon. 

 

God dammit.  I might get a Dodgers hat here or something.  Kinda short sighted because he might go elsewhere after the season is over but...the Dodgers are such a classic team, I've always kinda liked them.  

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4 minutes ago, Spaceman Spiff said:

 

Looking back on it, going to the playoffs 3x in 5 years was made easier by the fact that the Sox and Yankees were underperforming.  If the Orioles can do it right, build properly and tap the international market correctly, it will be an absolute dogfight in the AL East for years to come.  Toronto has some good prospects up and coming, too.  Can't count them out.  

 

 

Yep, with hindsight our success between 2012-2016 was helped by our rivals having some down years. I'm glad the timing worked and we were able to take advantage! 

 

Looking forward, I don't think we should even worry about being in the discussion for 3+ years. It will take another couple misses by the big guns in the East to crack a door or window for us. Nothing devastating for them, but they need to miss on a couple big contracts and that needs to align with a time when our team is ascending. 

 

Like you mentioned, if we exhaust our resources wisely there's really no reason we can't be competitive. Smaller market teams can succeed, they just have less margin for error. The Dodgers, Sox, and Yankees can cover up mistakes much more quickly and easily, but Houston, Kansas City, and Tampa have all played in a WS recently. 

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2 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

Yep, with hindsight our success between 2012-2016 was helped by our rivals having some down years. I'm glad the timing worked and we were able to take advantage! 

 

Looking forward, I don't think we should even worry about being in the discussion for 3+ years. It will take another couple misses by the big guns in the East to crack a door or window for us. Nothing devastating for them, but they need to miss on a couple big contracts and that needs to align with a time when our team is ascending. 

 

Like you mentioned, if we exhaust our resources wisely there's really no reason we can't be competitive. Smaller market teams can succeed, they just have less margin for error. The Dodgers, Sox, and Yankees can cover up mistakes much more quickly and easily, but Houston, Kansas City, and Tampa have all played in a WS recently. 

 

Totally correct.  The Orioles have shown they can hold a 120-160 million payroll, too.  They just need to spend it on the right players at the right time (Manny, not Davis).  Slim margin for error, absolutely.

 

Manny leaving hasn't totally sunken in yet for me.  I think it will come Friday when I tune in and he's not there.

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28 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

Yep, with hindsight our success between 2012-2016 was helped by our rivals having some down years. I'm glad the timing worked and we were able to take advantage! 

 

Looking forward, I don't think we should even worry about being in the discussion for 3+ years. It will take another couple misses by the big guns in the East to crack a door or window for us. Nothing devastating for them, but they need to miss on a couple big contracts and that needs to align with a time when our team is ascending. 

 

Like you mentioned, if we exhaust our resources wisely there's really no reason we can't be competitive. Smaller market teams can succeed, they just have less margin for error. The Dodgers, Sox, and Yankees can cover up mistakes much more quickly and easily, but Houston, Kansas City, and Tampa have all played in a WS recently. 

 

What I disagree with is even worrying about what the Yankees or Sox are doing. Not that you are saying to wait until they have come back down, but the O's need to build to be good without consideration of those teams. They are never going to not spend and have a huge advantage over the O's. Focus on putting the best roster together and when the O's are winning, don't hesitate to make a trade the way the Stros did for Verlander. 

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15 minutes ago, Hersh said:

 

What I disagree with is even worrying about what the Yankees or Sox are doing. Not that you are saying to wait until they have come back down, but the O's need to build to be good without consideration of those teams. They are never going to not spend and have a huge advantage over the O's. Focus on putting the best roster together and when the O's are winning, don't hesitate to make a trade the way the Stros did for Verlander. 

 

100% agree...I didn't mean that from the team's perspective, but from the fans' perspective. The Orioles need to rebuild and try to put a team on the field that can win games without worrying about the landscape. But when we set our expectations, we need to look at the divisional rivals. 

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20 minutes ago, Hersh said:

The O’s should pay Tim Kurkjian to do their PR. He was just in PTI talking up how close Britton is to being his old self and how big it will be for whichever team that gets him. 

 

I saw that.  He was laying it on pretty thick.  lol

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