Let's All Get Behind Alex Smith! Or Not!! (M.E.T.) NO kirk talk---that goes in ATN forum

[zCommander]

2 hours ago, Califan007 said:

EDIT: Kinda wild that we don't have a Cousins thread in ATN, after all the debating and arguing we did over the guy. I probably shouldn't have posted that tweet here...so deleting it.

 

 

You can post it in this one. 

 

 

 

[zCommander]

4 hours ago, Burgold said:

Last post on this because I don't want to relitigate the past. Plus, it's the wrong thread.

 

I remember in his first year that RGIII was able to be a pocket passer, was deadly accurate, was hitting second and third reads. Somehow, his confidence got wrecked along with his knee. By his last year, he couldn't even hand the ball off effectively. Absolutely every part of his game fell apart. Now, was that inevitable... was that because he was a one year wonder or a perfect storm of ego, injury, lost confidence, coaching, etc. I don't know and don't really care because we can't travel back in time, but the problem wasn't the trade or the price of the trade... the problem was that it didn't work out.

 

To get back on topic, that'll be true of Alex too. Even though the trade price wasn't nearly as high... was he worth giving up a dynamic corner and a third round pick? The price isn't high if Smith is successful here. If he blows it or gets us to the first round of the playoffs before we lose then I'd argue that trade will be viewed as a failure too. Smith needs to take the 'skins to the next level. Otherwise, it wouldn't been better to ride with McCoy and possibly collect that high first rounder that could be groomed into a franchise QB.

 

Yeah there were a lot of factors. In my original post it was just a one liner about the competency of Dan and not really to rehash the past for RG3. 

 

With Alex he has to take the team deep into the playoffs. If not then yes it was a bad trade. 

 

[DJHJR86]

Not sure if this has been covered yet, but since everyone within the organization keeps insinuating that the stats put up by our previous QB was due to Gruden's quarterback friendly system, would anything less than 4,000 yards 28+ TD's be deemed a failure?  

[Califan007 The Constipated]

24 minutes ago, DJHJR86 said:

Not sure if this has been covered yet, but since everyone within the organization keeps insinuating that the stats put up by our previous QB was due to Gruden's quarterback friendly system, would anything less than 4,000 yards 28+ TD's be deemed a failure?  

 

Depends...is the running game kicking ass?

[TD_washingtonredskins]

34 minutes ago, DJHJR86 said:

Not sure if this has been covered yet, but since everyone within the organization keeps insinuating that the stats put up by our previous QB was due to Gruden's quarterback friendly system, would anything less than 4,000 yards 28+ TD's be deemed a failure?  

 

Extremely different circumstances aside, I think that's a very fair point and threshold. 

[DJHJR86]

1 hour ago, Califan007 said:

 

Depends...is the running game kicking ass?

 

That's irrelevant based off of the praise of Gruden's system in terms of a QB being able to put up big numbers.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

9 minutes ago, DJHJR86 said:

 

That's irrelevant based off of the praise of Gruden's system in terms of a QB being able to put up big numbers.

 

It's not irrelevant to the question you asked, though.

[DJHJR86]

1 minute ago, Califan007 said:

 

It's not irrelevant to the question you asked, though.

 

"but since everyone within the organization keeps insinuating that the stats put up by our previous QB was due to Gruden's quarterback friendly system, would anything less than 4,000 yards 28+ TD's be deemed a failure?"

 

With a decent running game, he should be able to put up more than 4,000 yards and 28 TD's easily, since the defenses will be putting 8 in the box.  If anything, a run game that's above average should help the passing game immensely.  And with a below average run game, this QB friendly system should be able to generate production similar to the past few years.  

[Califan007 The Constipated]

2 minutes ago, DJHJR86 said:

 

"but since everyone within the organization keeps insinuating that the stats put up by our previous QB was due to Gruden's quarterback friendly system, would anything less than 4,000 yards 28+ TD's be deemed a failure?

 

We've never seen Gruden's "quarterback-friendly system" paired with a dynamic, time-consuming rushing attack. So for your question to be answered correctly, we'd need to assume either that the run game remains the same, or try and determine how his quarterback-friendly system will be altered, how his play-calling might change, how many more TDs on the ground might occur in the red zone, etc, etc. To dismiss that and pretend like the passing game is played in a vacuum would result in a bunch of conclusions that aren't based in reality.

 

i agree that for some of the people making the claim that Gruden's system is behind Cousins'  success here, the running game is irrelevant to their stance. But it's damn relevant to your question.

[DJHJR86]

1 minute ago, Califan007 said:

So for your question to be answered correctly, we'd need to assume either that the run game remains the same, or try and determine how his quarterback-friendly system will be altered, how his play-calling might change, how many more TDs on the ground might occur in the red zone, etc, etc. To dismiss that and pretend like the passing game is played in a vacuum would result in a bunch of conclusions that aren't based in reality.

 

Assuming that it's better, this should help the numbers put up by the QB.  Maybe not total yards, but definitely TDs.  See my edited response above.

[mistertim]

18 minutes ago, DJHJR86 said:

 

Assuming that it's better, this should help the numbers put up by the QB.  Maybe not total yards, but definitely TDs.  See my edited response above.

 

Not necessarily. If you have a really good rushing attack you're likely to have quite a few more red zone rushing TDs. Since the red zone is where the majority of a QB's passing TDs come from, that would take away from it. Hell, even a future HOFer like Brees saw his passing yards and passing TD numbers go down a good amount once they had a really good running game last season. The running game obviously compliments the passing game but not necessarily for overall yards or TDs but more in specific situations where you can take advantage of play action or of a defense stacking the box to get good one on one match ups on the outside for more deep passing plays.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

I think, like most things, we will be able to subjectively determine if Smith is playing worse, as well, or better than Cousins did. A better running game than Cousins had may reduce the numbers, but should give Smith the opportunity to be more efficient. I think good QB is in that "you know it when you see it" category. 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

Vinny Iryer from Sporting News just now on 106.7.   I'll start with who the heck is the guy?  Never heard about him until today.  And I didn't subscribe to his points but I guess I'd add him to the negative nellies about Alex and the team.   Some are indeed positive about the team but a lot of negativity from the football pundit types though more directed at the team overall not so much Alex.

 

Among the points --the Redskins have never been so far behind the other teams in the NFC East, he thinks the Giants in particular had a killer off season.  And Alex will be a downgrade from Kirk.

 

[TD_washingtonredskins]

12 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Among the points --the Redskins have never been so far behind the other teams in the NFC East, he thinks the Giants in particular had a killer off season.  And Alex will be a downgrade from Kirk.

 

 

This surprises me just a bit...of course, in the span of a year we went from ahead of to behind the Eagles (had swept them 2-3 straight seasons going into 2017). Though, in both games vs. Philly, we played them pretty tight. I think we OUTPLAYED them in week 1 (granted it was week 1) and we were down only 7 in the 4th quarter when Wentz made that miraculous escape to convert a third down into a first down (and eventually score a TD to essentially put us in chase mode). 

 

The Cowboys have had our number so I'd have to see us gain on them before I'll believe anything on paper. 

 

I agree that the Giants will be much, much better than last year. 

 

Still, to say we've "never been so far behind" our divisional rivals is strange coming off a nearly .500 season where we figure to have either stayed the same or gotten marginally better. Doesn't he know how we looked under some previous coaches? 

[Veryoldschool]

4 hours ago, DJHJR86 said:

Not sure if this has been covered yet, but since everyone within the organization keeps insinuating that the stats put up by our previous QB was due to Gruden's quarterback friendly system, would anything less than 4,000 yards 28+ TD's be deemed a failure?  

 

Interesting, especially since Kirk managed to achieve those numbers with guys from the cheap seats blocking for him.  I'm going to go way out on a limb and say no, Alex will find DC more supportive than Kirk.  At least I hope that is the case.

[Veryoldschool]

56 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Vinny Iryer from Sporting News just now on 106.7.   I'll start with who the heck is the guy?  Never heard about him until today.  And I didn't subscribe to his points but I guess I'd add him to the negative nellies about Alex and the team.   Some are indeed positive about the team but a lot of negativity from the football pundit types though more directed at the team overall not so much Alex.

 

Among the points --the Redskins have never been so far behind the other teams in the NFC East, he thinks the Giants in particular had a killer off season.  And Alex will be a downgrade from Kirk.

 

 

I didn't watch Alex play much with the Chiefs of the 49ers so I don't have an opinion yet, I hope we are all pleased with Alex.  That said, if Vinny Iryer is right and Alex & the Skins struggle while Kirk & the Vikings rock Bruce Allen is going to finally get canned.  Yes, it would just be Allen, not Snyder so no real solace I'd much rather have Alex workout 

[TD_washingtonredskins]

6 minutes ago, Veryoldschool said:

 

I didn't watch Alex play much with the Chiefs of the 49ers so I don't have an opinion yet, I hope we are all pleased with Alex.  That said, if Vinny Iryer is right and Alex & the Skins struggle while Kirk & the Vikings rock Bruce Allen is going to finally get canned.  Yes, it would just be Allen, not Snyder so no real solace I'd much rather have Alex workout 

 

Yeah, as much as many of us have developed an irritation with Allen, the best outcome for everyone is for him to suddenly become good at what he does. I'm a big enough man to admit I was wrong about a guy if that guy contributes to the success of my team! 

[volsmet]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Vinny Iryer from Sporting News just now on 106.7.   I'll start with who the heck is the guy?  Never heard about him until today.  And I didn't subscribe to his points but I guess I'd add him to the negative nellies about Alex and the team.   Some are indeed positive about the team but a lot of negativity from the football pundit types though more directed at the team overall not so much Alex.

 

Among the points --the Redskins have never been so far behind the other teams in the NFC East, he thinks the Giants in particular had a killer off season.  And Alex will be a downgrade from Kirk.

 

 

It surprises me how many people think Kirk is a better QB. I don't think its particularly close. As always, we shall see. 

 

 

[TD_washingtonredskins]

15 minutes ago, volsmet said:

 

It surprises me how many people think Kirk is a better QB. I don't think its particularly close. As always, we shall see. 

 

 

 

I don't understand what you've seen to make you think it's not close. I don't have an issue with anyone who would shade to one side (Cousins) or the other (Smith). But, it seems that they are certainly in the same ballpark. I'd really need to hear reasoning as to why either one would be considered head and shoulders above the other. 

[Sticksboi05]

*Sees half of thread title on desktop*

 

"What kind of fool isn't already behind Alex Ovechkin in this ci ...oh whoops."

 

I agree, at this point since the organization won't help a ton, the least we can do as a fan base is stop constantly heaping excessive pressure on every person who comes through at the quarterback position. If we stop making every pass a referendum on whether or not they can do what Tom Brady does, both sides will be happier. Get a grip on expectations and be happy that we're not trotting out one of the myriad scrubs that fill rosters in this league.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

2 minutes ago, Sticksboi05 said:

*Sees half of thread title on desktop*

 

"What kind of fool isn't already behind Alex Ovechkin in this ci ...oh whoops."

 

I agree, at this point since the organization won't help a ton, the least we can do as a fan base is stop constantly heaping excessive pressure on every person who comes through at the quarterback position. If we stop making every pass a referendum on whether or not they can do what Tom Brady does, both sides will be happier. Get a grip on expectations and be happy that we're not trotting out one of the myriad scrubs that fill rosters in this league.

 

I really don't think you'll see the week-to-week, play-to-play evaluation of Smith the way you did with Griffin and Cousins. Smith kind of is what he is now and he's here for 3-4 years, minimum. This the first time that we've had a QB in this situation in quite some time. 

 

Working backwards....

 

Cousins was playing year-to-year essentially since he took over as the starter

Griffin was on his rookie contract and trying to transition into more of a NFL QB in 2013 and 2014

Grossman and Beck were hardly NFL-level QBs so I don't think anyone cared too much about them 

McNabb definitely had scrutiny so he's probably the closest we had recently (established guy coming to us), but that was now 8 years ago...

Campbell before him was on his rookie deal so we were all waiting for him to turn the corner

Brunell was established and we were all just hoping that...

...Ramsey would be good enough to steal the job from him in the beginning

 

 

[Veryoldschool]

46 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

I don't understand what you've seen to make you think it's not close. I don't have an issue with anyone who would shade to one side (Cousins) or the other (Smith). But, it seems that they are certainly in the same ballpark. I'd really need to hear reasoning as to why either one would be considered head and shoulders above the other. 

 

How many of us have seen a lot of Smith's games?  I think I've only seen him play 5 or 6 times on his two prior teams, so I certainly don't feel I understand his game.  I've seen his stats which are nice but with another team so I don't really have a view on whether he'll be comparable to Kirk, better or worse.

37 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

I really don't think you'll see the week-to-week, play-to-play evaluation of Smith the way you did with Griffin and Cousins. Smith kind of is what he is now and he's here for 3-4 years, minimum. This the first time that we've had a QB in this situation in quite some time. 

 

Working backwards....

 

Cousins was playing year-to-year essentially since he took over as the starter

Griffin was on his rookie contract and trying to transition into more of a NFL QB in 2013 and 2014

Grossman and Beck were hardly NFL-level QBs so I don't think anyone cared too much about them 

McNabb definitely had scrutiny so he's probably the closest we had recently (established guy coming to us), but that was now 8 years ago...

Campbell before him was on his rookie deal so we were all waiting for him to turn the corner

Brunell was established and we were all just hoping that...

...Ramsey would be good enough to steal the job from him in the beginning

 

 

 

I hope you are right and Alex will perform well and we can all focus on grousing about the interior of the OL...:-)

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Veryoldschool said:

 

I didn't watch Alex play much with the Chiefs of the 49ers so I don't have an opinion yet, I hope we are all pleased with Alex.  That said, if Vinny Iryer is right and Alex & the Skins struggle while Kirk & the Vikings rock Bruce Allen is going to finally get canned.  Yes, it would just be Allen, not Snyder so no real solace I'd much rather have Alex workout 

 

I am rooting of course for Alex to succeed.  I am guessing Alex's biggest buzz is coming soon because he hasn't placed yet in the top 100 players in the NFL ranking -- i am gathering he will end up top 20, since he's not been among the mentioned yet.  NFL Network has been replaying a lot of Chiefs this off season so I've watched my share of Alex and watched plenty of interviews. 

 

My take from all of that.   Alex is as nice a guy as Kirk was -- classy as heck.  Ironically I recall Scot once talking about Kirk and Alex's personality from his dealings with them and said both are super nice, super above board.  Alex is quieter than Kirk.  He's more of the cool Hand Luke type that Shanny in retrospect mislabled RG3 as.  

 

As players, I am purposely not going to say what I think each does better because I don't want to get dragged into a Kirk-Alex debate.  I'll just say this, I think they are of similar caliber.  Both quarterbacks have a potential fascinating narrative for entirely different reasons judging by both fans and critics of the players.

 

For Kirk to me its seems to be something like this

 

His Fans:

A.  Kirk was good in spite of having a weak running game and a weak defense.  Last year he didn't have a good supporting cast either because of injuries.  Imagine him with a real supporting cast?  Well now he has one.

 

His Critics:

B. Kirk is overrated and overpaid -- the Minny gig if anything will expose all of that.  With all of those weapons, he will still let them down.

 

For Alex to me it seems to be something like this

 

A.  Alex had a career year last year and the dude is only getting better.  Look at how Brady was in his mid 30s?  What you saw in 2017 is a sneak preview of an even bigger and better year.   

 

B.  Alex's career year won't be matched.  He had one of the best TEs in the game, RB and WR corp.  He's always been limited  and that will be exposed in DC when he plays with a supporting cast that doesn't match all he had during his career year. 

 

Personally, I am a fan of both guys and rooting for both for entirely different reasons.  They are both classy guys who also have over the top critics who give them a harder time than they deserve.  I typically don't root for Redskins players when they leave -- but in this case I hope Kirk totally kicks butt next year.  To me Kirk's season if he explodes is a running commentary on Bruce/Dan's competence.   And perhaps exposing that would bring some needed change.  

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

Yeah, as much as many of us have developed an irritation with Allen, the best outcome for everyone is for him to suddenly become good at what he does. I'm a big enough man to admit I was wrong about a guy if that guy contributes to the success of my team! 

 

I think in this situation though you can have your cake and eat it too.  I am relatively optimistic about the season but I don't think its a Superbowl roster.  If they just sneak in the playoffs and do their usual first round exit -- I think that's a good year with this roster.  I think they are another off season away.

 

Minny to me is built to win now.  So I don't think Kirk-Alex's paths ultimately collide but can you imagine if it did in a playoff game -- if so wow. 

 

My point is Alex and Kirk can have good years but the outcome for both is entirely different, regardless.  In my view if the 30 year old QB that they let go takes Minny to the Superbowl and or has a great year -- its a lose, lose for Bruce perception wise.  

 

Kirk is at what I believe the prime years for QBs.  Alex to me likely isn't for long.  I got no bone with anyone who thinks Alex is better or Kirk.  I see the argument either way.  My disagreement is all about the age.  So if Kirk burns it up at his age and has a bigger year than he had here -- I think it speaks volumes regardless of what Alex does -- unless the Redskins have a shock the world type of season.  Don't get me wrong I'd love a season like that but I am not expecting it.

[HTTRDynasty]

This part of Keim's recent "mailbag" really stood out to me:

 

Smith has long been known for not turning the ball over. In fact, in the past five years combined, he’s thrown only 33 interceptions. In 17 fewer starts, Cousins threw 19 more picks (but only seven fewer touchdowns). We know Smith takes care of the ball, but this stat can have a tremendous impact on both sides of the ball. It’s about field position. I wrote about this in February, but here’s the stat: Last season, Washington allowed the opposition to start 23 drives inside its territory, which ranked 29th in the NFL. The Patriots allowed only five such drives (and two were kneel-downs at the end of a loss). The Redskins allowed the most drives to start inside their own 30.

 

That was not all on Cousins by any means. But if this stat gets turned around, the Redskins will improve. During Smith’s five seasons in Kansas City, the Chiefs allowed a combined 72 such drives. It’s no coincidence they made the postseason four times and finished with a winning record all five years. Their defense was good for his first four years, but last season the Chiefs ranked 15th in points allowed and 28th in yards. They were not great by any means. They won 10 games. Taking care of the ball (and having some offensive playmakers) mattered. One Redskins staffer earlier this offseason pointed to this stat and Smith's win-loss record in the past seven years (69-31-1) and said it was no coincidence. He pointed to his ability to take care of the ball as a main reason. He's played with some excellent defenses, too. But he helps them out by not committing turnovers.

 

I brought it up earlier in the thread as well when I was listing off DVOA stats:

 

Our defense was given the 28th worst starting field position in the league.  KC's defense was given the 3rd best.  It's not all on Cousins, but a significant amount of it is.  This is an underrated stat that has a big impact on wins and losses.